Mong-Ming Lu

南海與菲律賓海區域對流與環流活動的季節、季內、年際、年代際等多種時間尺度變化是亞澳季風區季節轉變時的重要現象。分析1991-2023年3-6月春夏轉換期外逸長波輻射資料，發現這段期間的季內尺度深對流活動以菲律賓海(125°E-135°E, 10°N-20°N)的10-30天準雙週震盪(QBWO)最顯著。運用帶通濾波法挑選出震幅較大且週期明顯的71個菲律賓海QBWO個案進行合成分析，看到伴隨QBWO交替出現的對流發展和抑制相位，分別搭配橫跨南海與菲律賓海的850hPa低層大氣風場偏西南和東北方向的距平，前者加強南海上的正渦漩擾動有利熱帶氣旋(TC)生成，後者雖不利南海生成TC但有利西北太平洋TC向西移入南海。另外，分析發現5-6月南海TC和菲律賓海QBWO的活躍程度與特徵在1996-2011年...

Episodic cold surges in the East Asian winter monsoon can penetrate deep into the South China Sea (SCS), enhance consequent tropical rainfall, and further strengthen the East Asia meridional overturning circulation. These cold surges can promote strong surface fluxes and lead to a deeper marine boundary layer (MBL). However, there is a lack of boun...

The first version of the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau one-tier (TCWB1T) fully coupled global atmospheric and oceanic modeling forecast system had been developed and implemented as a routine operation for seasonal prediction at Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in 2017, with a minor revision in 2020. Based on NCEP CFSv1, the global atmospheric model in...

In boreal summer of 2022, Pakistan experienced extremely high rainfall, resulting in severe flooding and displacing over 30 million people. At the same time, heatwaves persisted over central China and Europe. The coexistence of these extreme events suggests a possible linkage. Our analysis indicated that the record rainfall was mainly induced by co...

During the first half month of April 2022, the Philippines experienced severe disasters associated with the weak but deadly tropical storm Megi that caused 214 deaths and two sunken ships. This prompted us to investigate the extended-range prediction skill of the springtime Philippine sub-seasonal scale rainfall extremes in the subseasonal-to-seaso...

In boreal summer of 2022, Pakistan suffered from record rainfall that led to severe flooding and left more than 30 million people homeless. At the same time, heatwaves persisted over central China and Europe. The concurrence of these extreme events suggests a possible linkage. Our analysis of climatic data indicated that the record rainfall was mai...

The decadal-scale variations of the Asian summer monsoon and the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) are of great scientific and societal importance. The period of 2010-2019 was identified as the most inactive decade since 1961 in terms of TC genesis over the SCS and the Philippine Sea d...

The decadal-scale variations of the Asian summer monsoon and the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) are of great scientific and societal importance. The period of 2010-2019 was identified as the most inactive decade since 1961 in terms of TC genesis over the SCS and the Philippine Sea d...

In the boreal summer of 2022, Pakistan suffered record rainfall that led to severe flooding and left more 30 million people homeless. At the same time, a severe heatwave persisted over central China. The concurrence of these extreme events suggests a possible linkage. Our analysis of climatic data indicated that the record rainfall was triggered by...

An inter-decadal increase (1990–2009) in the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency in May has recently been reported. The TC decadal changes was attributed to an advanced monsoon onset over the Asian Summer Monsoon region, particularly over the South China Sea (SCS) in May. In the present study, we used 60 years (1961–...

The monsoon development in the early rainy season in East Asia is analysed by the evolution of daily weather types (WTs). The WTs are classified by a k‐means clustering analysis based on 850 hPa winds from April 1 to July 31 in the 40‐year period of 1979–2018. Five WTs are identified, typifying the progression of weather regimes in the monsoonal ev...

During the austral summer 2018/19, devastating floods occurred over northeast Australia that killed approximately 625,000 head of cattle and inundated over 3000 homes in Townsville. In this paper, the disastrous event was identified as a record-breaking subseasonal peak rainfall event (SPRE). The SPRE was mainly induced by an anomalously strong mon...

During the austral summer 2018/19, devastating floods occurred over northeast Australia that killed approximately 625,000 head of cattle and inundated over 3000 homes in Townsville. This disastrous event was attributed to a quasi-stationary monsoon depression over northeast Australia and the convection associated with MJO over the western Pacific (...

Background Extreme temperature events have been observed to appear more frequently and with greater intensity in Taiwan in recent decades due to climate change, following the global trend. Projections of temperature extremes across different climate zones and their impacts on related mortality and adaptation have not been well studied. Methods We...

Rainfall over South China Sea (SCS)-Maritime Continent (MC) region involves multiple-scale phenomena such as the annual cycle, monsoon variability, ENSO, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). This study focuses on documenting MJO and CCEW modulation on the boreal winter subseasonal peak precipitation, w...

The seasonal transition from December 2017 to May 2018 occurred during the final decaying stage of the La Niña phase following the 2015/16 El Niño. In this report we documented the anomalous cyclonic flow that persisted over the South China Sea (SCS) in winter and over the western North Pacific in spring was maintained by the anomalous heating in t...

This study examines the interannual variability of the North Pacific high during boreal summer of 1979–2008 to understand how its leading modes are related to the two types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the observations, the first empirical orthogonal function mode (EOF1) is characterized by an in-phase variation between the western Pa...

Summer days with extremely hot temperatures in Taiwan have been increasing for the past few decades, and this continuing trend is expected to worsen heat-related mortality. To mitigate the corresponding health impacts, in this study, we developed a statistical state-space model to predict the number of extremely hot days in June–September for the n...

Long-lead seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is strongly demanded, albeit challenging, for hazard prevention and preparedness in the area prone to TCs. This article attempts to present a late-season (September–November, SON) empirical prediction model to predict the accumulative cyclone kinetic energy (ACE) around Taiwan. The predi...

The tropical surface wind speed in boreal winter reaches a maximum near Taiwan. This stable wind resource may be used for future development of clean energy. How this surface wind energy source changed in past 141 years is investigated using the 20th century reanalysis dataset and CMIP5 models. Our observational analysis shows that the surface wind...

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) research of the past several years is briefly reviewed. On the interannual time scale, the EAWM variability features two major modes: The strength and pathway of the EAWM, which are linked to the changes in the amplitude and phase of atmospheric planetary waves, respectively. The blocking activity over Ural and...

The sea surface temperature (SST) of the marginal seas off the East coast of China is known for its large warming trend during the twentieth century. The station data in Taiwan is of particular importance as a reliable complementing measurement for SST. This paper analyzes the temperature from 1911 - 2010 at six stations using the data adaptive met...

The Asian monsoon is a planetary-scale circulation system powered by the release of latent heat, but important features of deep convection and rainfall distribution cannot be adequately represented by the large-scale patterns. This is mainly due to the strong influences of terrain that are important across a wide range of horizontal scales, especia...

A 50-year (1960–2009) monthly rainfall gridded dataset produced by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project was presented in this study. The gridded data (5 × 5 km) displayed influence of topography on spatial variability of rainfall, and the results of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) analysis revealed the pat...

Tropical cyclones are one of the most serious natural disasters in northwestern Pacific Ocean. In general, an average of three to four typhoons invades the vicinity of Taiwan annually, which brings heavy rainfalls and strong winds resulting in disasters including flooding, mudflows, and landslides, leading to severe damage to economies and casualti...

Taiwan is located at the dividing point of the tropical and subtropical monsoons over East Asia. Taiwan has double rainy seasons, the Meiyu in May–June and the Typhoon rains in August–September. To predict the amount of Meiyu rainfall is of profound importance to disaster preparedness and water resource management. The seasonal forecast of May–June...

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remain...

This study reveals a possible cause of model bias in simulating the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) variability via an examination of an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulation produced by the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) developed at Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau (CWB). During boreal summer, the model...

Understanding local precipitation patterns is essential to water resource management and flood mitigation. Precipitation patterns can vary in space and time depending on factors from different spatial scales such as local topographical changes and macroscopic atmospheric circulation. This study applied the two-stage classification method to disting...

The ocean–atmosphere coupling in the northeastern subtropical Pacific is dominated by a Pacific meridi-onal mode (PMM), which spans between the extratropical and tropical Pacific and plays an important role in connecting extratropical climate variability to the occurrence of El Niño. Analyses of observational data and numerical model experiments we...

Thirty Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial simulations are examined to contrast the impacts of the two types of El Niño on US winter temperatures. The CMIP5 models are found to be more capable of simulating the observed Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño impacts (a warm-northeast, cold-southwest pattern over the US) but le...

Tropical cyclone (TC) is the most hazardous high‐impact weather system in Taiwan. TC seasonal prediction affecting the Taiwan area is extremely challenging because of the relatively small target area and highly variable TC genesis locations and tracks. This paper presents an empirical seasonal forecast model for predicting TC activity around Taiwan...

A newly released reanalysis dataset covering the period 1979–2009 is analyzed to show that the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical central Pacific is more closely related to the SST variability in the tropical eastern Pacific before 1990 but more closely related to sea level pressure (SLP) variations associated with the North...

A spatial-temporal projection method (STPM) is developed to predict the spring (March–May, MAM) rainfall in northern Taiwan. Seven large-scale atmospheric and oceanic fields (925-hPa zonal wind, meridional wind, and moisture, 850-hPa, 500-hPa, and 200-hPa geopotential height, and sea surface temperature) with their temporal evolutions during the pr...

The seasonal and interannual variabilities of warm pool properties in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors are examined and contrasted. The properties examined are the size, mean and maximum sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and central position. The seasonal variability is more vigorous in the Indian Ocean sector, but the interannual variability is...

Current skill in the seasonal prediction of the Asian monsoon falls rapidly north of 40 degrees N, where the Siberian high (SH) is a prominent manifestation of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Variations in the SH are closely related to winter weather over a large latitudinal span from northern Asia to the equator. Here it is shown that during...

An automated technique has been developed for the detection and tracking of tropical cyclone-like vortices (TCLVs) in numerical weather prediction models, and especially for ensemble-based models. A TCLV is detected in the model grid when selected dynamic and thermodynamic fields meet specified criteria. A backward-and-forward extension from the ma...

A new approach to forecasting regional and seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in the western North Pacific using the antecedent large-scale environmental conditions is proposed. This approach, based on TC track types, yields probabilistic forecasts and its utility to a smaller region in the western Pacific is demonstrated. Environmental varia...

A Poisson generalized linear regression model cast within a Bayesian framework is applied to forecast the seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) counts in the vicinity of Taiwan. The TC season considered is June-November and the data period used for model development is 1979-2007.Astepwise regression procedure is applied for predictor selection. Three larg...

The highest frequency of late-winter cold-air outbreaks in East and Southeast Asia over 50 years was recorded in 2005, when three strong successive cold surges occurred in the South China Sea within a span of 30 days from mid-February to mid-March. These events also coincided with the first break of 18 consecutive warm winters over China. The stron...

The differences in the temporal evolution and spatial characteristics of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) between positive and negative events with and without ENSO have been investigated using observations for the period 1948-2002. To document such differences is particularly important for climate forecasts over far east Asia, since distinctly differ...

In this study, a multivariate linear regression model is applied to pre-dict the seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) count in the vicinity of Taiwan using large-scale climate variables available from the preceding May. Here the season encompasses the five-month period from June through October, when typhoons are most active in the study domain. The mode...

This study found that the spring (February–April) rainfall in northern Taiwan has fluctuated concurrently with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) since the early 20th century. It is proposed that this fluctuation in spring rain is induced by the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly embedded in the PDO, which has been known to oscillate...

The climatological mean summer monsoon onset in the South China Sea (SCS) is a remarkably abrupt event. However, defining onset dates for individual years is noticeably controversial. The controversies and complications arise primarily from a number of factors: the intermittent southward intrusion of cold fronts into the northern SCS, the bogus ons...

A spectral analysis and a method using the conditional probability approach are performed on 41-year (1958-1998) monthly station pressure, temperature and precipitation data in Taiwan to identify the local climate biennial oscillation (BO) signal. Two Taiwan BO modes are identified in this study. One is the November-December (ND) temperature and th...

The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamic and hydrological characteristics of the interannual variability of the northern summer (June-August) ocean-atmosphere system in the Asian-Pacific region. In this ocean-atmosphere system, there are two types of interannual variability modes. As indicated by the sea surface temperature (SST) variabi...

The seasonal variation and excitation mechanisms of the equatorially trapped waves (ETWs) are studied using the wind, geopotential, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data during the First and Second Special Observing Periods (SOP-1 and SOP-2) of the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE). Some properties of the low-frequency (30 to 50 day) oscilla...

Equatorially trapped planetary-scale waves at the 200 mb level are isolated and their characteristics are examined using space-time spectral analyses of wind data in the latitude belt from 20°S to 40°N during the two contrasting northern summers of 1967 and 1972. With the aid of the theoretically known properties of equatorial waves such as the dis...