Mikael Höök

Uppsala University | UU · Department of Earth Sciences

Lithium is a highly interesting metal, in part due to the increasing interest in lithium-ion batteries. Several recent studies have used different methods to estimate whether the lithium production can meet an increasing demand, especially from the transport sector, where lithium-ion batteries are the most likely technology for electric cars. The r...

Future scenarios with significant anthropogenic climate change also display large increases in world production of fossil fuels, the principal CO2 emission source. Meanwhile, fossil fuel depletion has also been identified as a future challenge. This chapter reviews the connection between these two issues and concludes that limits to availability of...

This paper presents a comprehensive mathematical framework for depletion rate analysis and ties it to the physics of depletion. Theory was compared with empirical data from 1036 fields and a number of regions. Strong agreement between theory and practice was found, indicating that the framework is plausible. Both single fields and entire regions ex...

The giant oil fields of the world are only a small fraction of the total number of fields, but their importance is huge. Over 50% of the world’s oil production came from giants by 2005 and more than half of the world’s ultimate reserves are found in giants. Based on this, it is reasonable to assume that the future development of the giant oil field...

A small number of nations control the vast majority of the world’s coal reserves. The geologically available amounts of coal are vast, but geological availability is not enough to ensure future production since economics and restrictions also play an important role. Historical trends in reserve and resource assessments can provide some insight abou...

The rapid growth of the digital economy has driven economic development, but the massive demand for electricity from digital reforms, coupled with China's coal-based power generation, has created a significant CO2 emission problem. Previous studies have assessed digital economy sectors with an incomplete scope and a lack of carbon emissions assessm...

Extracting, processing, and delivering energy requires energy itself, which reduces the net energy available to society and yields considerable socioeconomic implications. Yet, most mitigation pathways and transition models overlook net energy feedbacks, specifically related to the decline in the quality of fossil fuel deposits, as well as energy r...

Sino-US trade has been widely analyzed in academic circles as a typical case of bilateral trade. However, the structural pathways by which the US final demand contributes to Chinese air pollution emissions have not been well quantified and analyzed. This study combines an environmental extended multi-regional input-output (EEMRIO) analysis with str...

The rapid growth of the digital economy has driven economic development, but the massive demand for electricity from digital reforms, coupled with China's coal-based power generation, has created a significant CO2 emission problem. Previous studies have assessed digital economy sectors with an incomplete scope and a lack of carbon emissions assessm...

Poland has been estimated to possess large volumes of technically recoverable shale gas resources, which has raised national hopes for increasing energy security and building export capacity. In this paper, we aim to examine political claims and hopes that Poland could achieve natural gas self-sufficiency and even become a gas exporter by harnessin...

China has stepped up its oil and gas development including unconventional resources as foreign dependence for oil and gas increased. Environmental impacts from the development phase has also caused widespread concern. To better understand environment impacts from current oil and gas development in China, a hybrid life cycle analysis (H-LCA) model w...

Concerns over anthropogenic climate change and sustainable development motivate rapid expansion of renewable energy in China. This paper explores metal demand caused by projected wind power developments in China up to 2050. Dynamic material flow analysis is combined with explorative energy scenarios to evaluate induced demand of base metals (copper...

Unconventional tight oil production has increased fast in recent years. This development can appear threatening to climate change mitigation efforts as more available supply might lead to continuing or increasing consumption, contributing to ‘carbon lock-in’, possibly making a low-carbon energy transition more difficult. However, the investment and...

Chinese PV industry can be expected to grow rapidly of until 2050, driven by ongoing decarbonization of the energy mix. Such large-scale deployments generate significant increases in metal demand that may induce resource dilemmas. In this study, dynamic material flow analysis is combined with scenario analysis to estimate future metal demand from C...

China became the world’s second largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer in 2018 but has faced extremely high import costs due to a lack of bargaining power. Assessments of the Shanghai LNG Price Index, first released in 2015, are vital for improving the understanding of these cost dynamics. This paper, using the LNG price index data from the S...

To better understand the recent Polish shale gas “frenzy”, it is pertinent to study (un)conventional natural gas in the broader context of Poland as a post-communist country that has struggled to achieve a meaningful transformation of its coal-dominated energy system. By scrutinising official documents issued by the Polish government institutions b...

Energy Return on Investment (EROI) has become a policy analysis tool related to sustainability. However, most EROI studies adopt the standard EROI method, which has two inherent defects. First, standard EROI leaves out energy quality. Second, input factors such as labor, auxiliary services and environmental factors are not considered. Therefore, th...

National access to modern energy is deemed by Malawi government as the driving force to attain social-economic development. To achieve this, optimal decisions in energy planning and investment are considered important. This study evaluates potential pathways that will inform better policy design and investment option in energy sector. The Integrate...

Shale gas exploration relies heavily on freshwater inputs while generating large amounts of wastewater. With the quick development of shale gas, water management during exploration has increasingly become a hotspot from both environmental and economic perspectives. This study investigated all the key water-consuming phases in exploration and optimi...

Energy and water resources are drawing increasing attention in China as indispensable elements of economic development and social stability. Energy production has led to widely debated issues such as water shortage and water pollution. Studies on their interrelation – i.e. the energy-water nexus – indicate that energy conservation impacts water res...

Detailed analysis of pathways to future sustainable energy systems is important in order to identify and overcome potential constraints and negative impacts and to increase the utility and speed of this transition. A key aspect of a shift to renewable energy technologies is their relatively higher metal intensities. In this study a bottom-up cost-m...

Energy efficiency and air pollution mitigation are critical issues for future development of the Chinese economy. Energy savings and their contribution to reduced air pollution from energy sectors during the 12th Five Year Plan are assessed using input-output analysis. A new dynamic quantitative method was developed to explore key sectors and ident...

Projections of oil production, price and investments in WEO 2000-2016 are evaluated. • Revisions are largest for OPEC and unconventional and due to demand and supply factors. • Accuracy is high for Non-OPEC conventional , and low for OPEC and un-conventional oil. • Empirical prediction intervals are derived to show uncertainty of current projection...

Documenting the emissions and net energy of a crude supply could be essential to meeting national emission and energy security targets. Using data from hundreds of fields worldwide, a well-to-refinery study presents a high-granularity profile of China’s crude oil supply in terms of emissions and energy return on input.

Hydrogen draw great attentions to become center of the Japanese energy policy after succeeding rapid expansion of renewable energy and dash for gas, after the Fukushima daiichi nuclear accident. This study estimates the metal requirement for hydrogen technologies by using a cost-minimizing energy model on the global energy-mineral nexus. The models...

Stringent GHG emission cuts are required for meeting the so-called Paris Agreement. Due to higher metal intensities of renewable energy, such a transition must also include required amounts of metal. This study estimates the metal requirement for various power generation technology mix scenarios by using a cost-minimizing energy model on the global...

This study investigates growth rates and material flows required to reach and sustain multi-terawatt installed capacity of photovoltaics (PV). The dynamics of material flows over time are captured, taking account for the life expectancy of PV technology. Requirements of solar grade silicon and silver for crystalline silicon (c-Si) technology, as we...

There is unequivocal evidence that we are facing the greatest energy transition since the dawn of the industrial age. We need to urgently shift from a global fossil fuel and CO2-emitting energy system to 1) decrease our CO2 emissions and combat the effects of climate change and 2) face a future of depleting fossil fuel resources.Yet there is still...

After the Great East Japan Earthquake, Japanese energy policy strategies have been directed towards seeking more diversified energy options, especially fuel switching to gas, rapid introduction of renewable energy, and pushing towards a hydrogen economy. While a secure supply of energy, or energy security, is typically argued within the context of...

Facing heavy air pollution, China needs to transition to a clean and sustainable energy system, especially in the power and transport sectors, which contribute the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The core of an energy transition is energy substitution and energy technology improvement. In this paper, we forecast the levelized cost of electr...

To consider the environmental impacts of energy resource exploitation and better estimate the energy return of investment (EROI), this paper establishes a new emergy-based method (EmEROI) that can capture the essence of energy resource exploitation. The EmEROI method treats environmental impacts and labor as particular forms of energy, and all form...

This paper derives characteristic decline patterns for shale gas wells by analyzing historical well production data using decline curve analysis of 14,453 shale gas wells in the Barnett shale play from 2000 to 2014. The Hyperbolic model and the Stretched Exponential model are applied on the well-by-well production data at average aggregate well and...

This study derives typical production curves of tight oil wells based on monthly production data from multiple horizontal Eagle Ford shale oil wells. Well properties initial production (IP) rate and production decline rate were documented, and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) was calculated using two empirical production decline curve models, the...

Coal is the second most important fuel currently used by mankind, accounting for over 25% of the world’s primary energy supply. It provides 41% of global electricity supplies and is a vital fuel or ...

Chinese energy consumption has been dominated by coal for decades, but this needs to change to protect the environment and mitigate anthropogenic climate change. Renewable energy development is needed to fulfil the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) for the post-2020 period, as stated on the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Confer...

This paper analyzes and quantifies characteristic production behavior using historical data from 1084 shale gas wells in the Eagle Ford shale play from 2010 to 2014. Decline curve analysis, using Hyperbolic and Stretched Exponential models, are used to derive average decline rates and other characteristic parameters for shale gas wells. Both Hyperb...

The nexus between energy consumption and economic growth in China is analyzed from the perspective of embodied energy imports and exports in this article. The research results suggest that China is a net embodied energy exporter and it is the inevitable result of China’s present economic development model. Exporting embodied energy contributes sign...

Climate projections are based on emission scenarios. The emission scenarios used by the IPCC and by mainstream climate scientists are largely derived from the predicted demand for fossil fuels, and in our view take insufficient consideration of the constrained emissions that are likely due to the depletion of these fuels. This paper, by contrast, t...

Moving towards sustainable consumption in China must factor in the drivers of production. China's domestic energy demand is affected not only by domestic demand, but also by foreign trade. The accounting of energy embodied in China's international trade has attracted much attention in recent years. In fact, embodied energy imports/exports are a par...

Solar energy is commonly seen as a future energy source with significant potential. Ruthenium, gallium, indium and several other rare elements are common and vital components of many solar energy technologies, including dye-sensitized solar cells, CIGS cells and various artificial photosynthesis approaches. This study surveys solar energy technolog...

China's current national policies promote high levels of economic growth, transforming China into a "world factory", but at a high cost in terms of energy and the environment. At the same time, this growth and transformation also forms the backbone of China's economy, underpinning social stability. China faces a dilemma to reconcile its economy, en...

Under pressure toward carbon emission reduction and air protection, China has accelerated energy restructuring by greatly improving the supply and consumption of natural gas in recent years. However, several issues with the sustainable development of the natural gas industry in China still need in-depth discussion. Therefore, based on the fundament...

This paper derives empirical estimates of field depletion level, depletion rate, decline rate and characteristic time intervals in offshore oil production based on a global field-by-field database containing 603 offshore oil fields. Statistical distributions as well as arithmetic and weighted averages of production parameters are derived for differ...

Numerous recent studies discuss phosphate rock extraction, and some even propose that a peak in production could be reached in coming decades. This would have great consequences as phosphate rock based fertilizers are irreplaceable in modern agriculture. Studies suggesting an impending peak commonly use curve fitting models where mathematical funct...

Abstract Several recent studies have proposed fast transitions to energy systems based on renewable energy technology. Many of them dismiss potential physical constraints and issues with natural resource supply, and do not consider the growth rates of the individual technologies needed or how the energy systems are to be sustained over longer time...

A thorough review of twelve recent studies of production costs from different power generating technologies was conducted and a wide range in cost estimates was found. The reviewed studies show differences in their methodologies and assumptions, making the stated cost figures not directly comparable and unsuitable to be generalized to represent the...

This paper presents an updated historic oil production analysis as well as an updated future oil production forecast for Norway and Denmark. Previous forecasts conducted by academic and official agencies using a variety of methodologies are contrasted and their accuracy examined. The bottom-up field-by-field methodology is found to be precise in th...

Two of the most fundamental concepts in the current debate about future oil supply are oilfield decline rates and depletion rates. These concepts are related, but not identical. This paper clarifies the definitions of these concepts, summarizes the underlying theory and empirically estimates decline and depletion rates for different categories of o...

Current world capacity of hydrocarbon liquefaction is around 400 000 barrels per day, providing a marginal share of the global liquid fuel supply. This study performs a broad review of technical, economic, environmental and supply chain issues related to coal-to-liquids (CTL) and gas-to-liquids (GTL). We find three issues predominate. First, signif...

a b s t r a c t China's energy supply is dominated by coal, making projections of future coal production in China important. Recent forecasts suggest that Chinese coal production may reach a peak in 2010e2039 but with widely differing peak production levels. The estimated URR (ultimately recoverable resources) influence these projections significan...

China's employment issue is catching people's eyes at present and for a long time. Economic impacts of China's petroleum industry on employment are divided into direct, indirect and induced impacts and they are analysed in this study by using the input-output approach. The research results suggest that petroleum industry will supply 0.0957 jobs and...

Oil and gas industries are technology intensive and appropriate risk evaluation is necessary. The Chinese oil and gas industry is in the development phase, thus risk assessments and mitigation is more important than pushing technological innovation. This paper compiles research of other experts in the field and evaluates innovation risk by using a...

Coal is the second most important fuel currently used by mankind, accounting for over 25% of the world’s primary energy supply. It provides 41% of global electricity supplies and is a vital fuel or production input for the steel, cement, and chemical industries. However, coal is a fossil fuel formed from organic material by geological processes ove...

As the world's second largest oil importer, China has been one of the important factors which affect the global oil market. In recent years, China has attained great international trade surplus through exporting a large number of “Made in China” products even during the global economic crisis. Due to direct and indirect effects in production chain,...

a b s t r a c t As the world's second largest oil importer, China has been one of the important factors which affect the global oil market. In recent years, China has attained great international trade surplus through exporting a large number of "Made in China" products even during the global economic crisis. Due to direct and indirect effects in p...

Purpose Several life cycle assessments (LCAs) of wind energy published in recent years are reviewed to identify methodological differences and underlying assumptions. Methods A full comparative analysis of 12 studies were undertaken (ten peer-reviewed papers, one conference paper, and one industry report) regarding six fundamental factors (methods...

This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for foreca...

The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems’ growth. Th...

Converting coal to a liquid, commonly known as coal-to-liquids (CTL), can supply liquid fuels and has been successfully used in several countries, particularly in South Africa. However, it has not become a major contributor to the global oil supply. Increasing awareness of the scarcity of oil and rising oil prices has increased the interest in coal...

Norwegian oil and gas fields are relatively new and of high quality, which has led, during recent decades, to very high profitability both financially and in terms of energy production. One useful measure for profitability is Energy Return on Investment, EROI. Our analysis shows that EROI for Norwegian petroleum production ranged from 44:1 in the e...

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO2 emissions is strongly linked to the future energy production, specifically coal. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. This study examines the SRES coal production outlooks. Fundamenta...

The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other difficult to reach locations. Moreover, obtaining the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on pro...

Coal exports are an important source of revenue for Australia and for this reason Australian coal production and resources have been examined in detail and two recoverable resource estimates determined namely Standard and High. The Standard case calculated the likely recoverable coal resources in Australia to be 317 Gt, whereas the High scenario de...

Coal exports are an important source of revenue for Australia and for this reason Australian coal production and resources have been examined in detail. Two recoverable resource estimates, a Standard case and a High case, were determined. The Standard case calculated the likely recoverable coal resources in Australia to be 317 Gt, whereas the High...

This paper reviews the historical development of both biogenic and non-biogenic petroleum formation. It also examines the recent claim that the so-called “abiotic” oil formation theory undermines the concept of “peak oil,” i.e. the notion that world oil production is destined to reach a maximum that will be followed by an irreversible decline. We s...

The geological coal resource of the U.S. is abundant and proved coal reserves are listed as the world’s largest. However, the reserves are unevenly distributed and located in a small number of states, giving them major influence over future production. A long history of coal mining provides detailed time series of production and reserve estimates,...

Continued reliance on oil is unsustainable and this has resulted in interest in alternative fuels. Coal-to-liquids (CTL) can supply liquid fuels and have been successfully used in several cases, particularly in South Africa. This article reviews CTL theory and technology. Understanding the fundamental aspects of coal liquefaction technologies is vi...

As China’ largest oilfield, Daqing is of great importance to China, this paper analyzes the status of the Daqing oilfield and forecasts its ultimate recoverable reserves by use of the URR model. The forecast results are presented for three scenarios which show that the ultimate recoverable reserves in Daqing oilfield are 3574.0million tons in the o...