Mihaly Koltai

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine | LSHTM · Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases

Background: Solutions to stochastic Boolean models are usually estimated by Monte Carlo simulations, but as the state space of these models can be enormous, there is an inherent uncertainty about the accuracy of Monte Carlo estimates and whether simulations have reached all attractors. Moreover, these models have timescale parameters (transition r...

Animals are known to adjust their sexual behaviour depending on mate competition. Here we report similar regulation for mating behaviour in a sexual unicellular eukaryote, the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We demonstrate that pheromone-based communication between the two mating types, coupled to input attenuation by recipient cells, enabl...

As numerous bacterial species, Shewanella putrefaciens CN-32 possesses a complete secondary flagellar system. A significant subpopulation of CN-32 cells induces expression of the secondary system under planktonic conditions, resulting in formation of one, sometimes two, filaments at lateral positions in addition to the primary polar flagellum. Muta...

Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a substantial burden of acute lower respiratory infection in children under 5 years, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Maternal vaccine (MV) and next-generation monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates have been shown to reduce RSV disease in infants in phase III clinical trial...

Introduction Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a major cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRI) in infants. There are no licensed vaccines and only one monoclonal antibody available to protect infants from disease. A new and potentially longer-lasting monoclonal antibody, Nirsevimab, showed promising results in phase IIb/III tria...

Introduction COVID-19 related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) led to a suppression of RSV circulation in winter 2020/21 in the UK and an off-season resurgence in Summer 2021. We explore how the parameters of RSV epidemiology shape the size and dynamics of post-suppression resurgence and what we can learn about them from the resurgence patte...

Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract infections and bronchiolitis in young children. The seasonal pattern of RSV is shaped by short-lived immunity, seasonally varying contact rates and pathogen viability. The magnitude of each of these parameters is not fully clear. The disruption of the regular seaso...

Background: In countries with weak surveillance systems, confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are likely to underestimate the pandemic’s death toll. Many countries also have incomplete vital registration systems, hampering excess mortality estimation. Here, we fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery data of cemeteri...

Introduction COVID-19 related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) led to a suppression of RSV circulation in winter 2020/21 throughout Europe and an off-season resurgence in Summer 2021 in several European countries. We explore how such temporary interruption may shape future RSV epidemiology and what factors drive the associated uncertainty. M...

Signaling networks represent the molecular mechanisms controlling a cell's response to various internal or external stimuli. Most currently available signaling databases contain only a part of the complex network of intertwining pathways, leaving out key interactions or processes. Hence, we have developed SignaLink3 (http://signalink.org/), a value...

Background: In countries with weak surveillance systems, confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are likely to underestimate the pandemic’s death toll. Many countries also have incomplete vital registration systems, hampering excess mortality estimation. Here, we fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery data of cemeteri...

Introduction In countries with weak surveillance systems confirmed COVID-19 deaths are likely to underestimate the death toll of the pandemic. Many countries also have incomplete vital registration systems, hampering excess mortality estimation. Here, we fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery data on burial patterns in Mogadishu,...

Motivation Solutions to stochastic Boolean models are usually estimated by Monte Carlo simulations, but as the state space of these models can be enormous, there is an inherent uncertainty about the accuracy of Monte Carlo estimates and whether simulations have reached all asymptotic solutions. Moreover, these models have timescale parameters (tran...

Supplementary Figures 1-9, Supplementary Table 1, Supplementary Methods and Supplementary References

Microbes need to extract relevant information from their environment and use this information to produce adequate behavioral responses that ensure their survival. Quantitative, mathematical analysis of microbial sensory systems (such as various signaling pathways) and their effectors (such as bacterial motors) forms the basis of the field of system...

Background Signaling networks in eukaryotes are made up of upstream and downstream subnetworks. The upstream subnetwork contains the intertwined network of signaling pathways, while the downstream regulatory part contains transcription factors and their binding sites on the DNA as well as microRNAs and their mRNA targets. Currently, most signaling...