Miguel Rivière

Miguel Rivière
AgroParisTech · CIRED

Doctor of Philosophy

About

13
Publications
1,905
Reads
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42
Citations
Introduction
Inter-disciplinary scientist with interests in forestry, environmental, economics & climate issues. https://miguelrivierepro.wordpress.com/
Additional affiliations
February 2021 - February 2021
AgroParisTech
Position
  • Researcher
Description
  • Research topics: forestry, the forest sector, transition pathways and climate change impacts. Bio-economic modelling.
September 2017 - February 2021
French National Institute for Agriculture, Food, and Environment (INRAE)
Position
  • PhD Student
Description
  • PhD student. Thesis title: Prospective analysis in the forest sector when facing environmental challenges: insights from large-scale bio-economic modelling
Education
September 2017 - February 2021
AgroParisTech
Field of study
  • Forest Economics
September 2014 - June 2016
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Field of study
  • Forest Sciences
September 2011 - August 2014
AgroParisTech
Field of study
  • Forest Sciences

Publications

Publications (13)
Article
Full-text available
Integrated simulation models are commonly used to provide insight on the complex functioning of social-ecological systems, often drawing on earlier tools with a narrower focus. Forest sector models (FSM) encompass a set of simulation models originally developed to forecast economic developments in timber markets but now commonly used to analyse cli...
Article
We explore the implications of managing forests for the dual purpose of sequestering carbon and producing timber, using a model of the forest sector that includes a Hartman-based representation of forest owners’ behaviour as well as heterogeneity in environmental conditions. We focus on France, where recent policies aim at increasing the carbon sin...
Article
Full-text available
Forest sector models encompass a set of models used for forest-related policy analysis. As representations of a complex human-environment system, they incorporate multiple facts from their target, the forest sector, which is usually understood as comprising forests, forestry and forest industries. Even though they pursue similar goals and display s...
Article
• Modelling wildfire activity is crucial for informing science‐based risk management and understanding the spatio‐temporal dynamics of fire‐prone ecosystems worldwide. Models help disentangle the relative influences of different factors, understand wildfire predictability and provide insights into specific events. Here, we develop Firelihood, a two...
Article
Full-text available
Under the influence of climate change, wildfire regimes are expected to intensify and expand to new areas, increasing threats to natural and socioeconomic assets. We explore the environmental and economic implications for the forest sector of climate-induced changes in wildfire regimes. To retain genericity while considering local determinants, we...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Simulation models are often used to carry out prospective experiments about the future of the economy in order to support decision-making. We discuss how such models are validated, taking the example of bio-economic models of the forestry sector. The original publication is available at http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/311327
Thesis
Full-text available
Forest policy increasingly mobilizes the forest sector to address environmental concerns. Owing to the forest sector’s complexity and time scales involved, simulation models are often used as research methods to explore the future. This thesis investigates the contributions of Forest Sector Models (FSM), bio-economic simulation models commonly used...
Article
Objectives: Evaluate the capacity of temperate forest resources to both provide climate change mitigation and to sustain the downstream timber sector explicitly considering the cascade of biophysical and economic drivers (in particular, climate change impacts and subsequent adaptation actions) and their uncertainty. Methodology: A recursive bio-eco...
Preprint
Full-text available
Modelling wildfire activity is crucial for informing science-based risk management and understanding fire-prone ecosystem functioning worldwide. Models also help to disentangle the relative roles of different factors, to understand wildfire predictability or to provide insights into specific events. Here, we develop a two-component Bayesian hierarc...
Poster
Full-text available
Initially developped to perform projections of timber markets, Forest Sector Models are now commonly used to adress environmental issues. We review such uses and highlight that Forest Sector Models have gradually become specialised in climate issues, while other topics (biodiversity, disturbances) remain less central.
Thesis
Full-text available
In 1993, Sweden issued a new forestry act, which gives equal importance to timber production and nature protection, and uses a wide range of policy tools, known as the Swedish forestry model, to achieve its goals. However, there is evidence that the Swedish forestry model does not perform as well as expected, especially regarding the involvement of...

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Projects

Projects (2)
Project
The aim is to predict and project spatio-temporal patterns of fire activity (fire occurrence and size) thanks to a probabilistic modelling that accounts for fire danger factors, such as wind, drought indices or vegetation moisture, as well as fuel properties, land-use, land-cover and fire management factors.
Archived project
Forest policy increasingly mobilizes the forest sector to address environmental concerns. Owing to the forest sector’s complexity and time scales involved, simulation models are often used as research methods to explore the future. This thesis investigates the contributions of Forest Sector Models (FSM), bio-economic simulation models commonly used for prospective analysis, to this transition. We first adopt a conceptual perspective and, through a parallel exploration of the early literature in forest economics and the epistemology of model use, we show that forest policy has been, and still is, a strong driver of FSM research, influencing representation processes in models as well as narratives used to drive research. We also highlight that the nature of facts within the forest sector, the local context, data availability and past practices are other important determinants of model-based research. We subsequently review more recent literature to assess the extent to which environmental issues have been addressed. While originally focused on timber production and trade, a majority of the research now focuses on goals such as renewable energy production or the conservation of biodiversity. The treatment of such objectives has however been unequal, and those closer to the models’ original target are treated more often and more deeply. On the contrary, modelling is hindered when economic values are hard to estimate or when models cannot handle spatialized data, hence objectives related to cultural and some regulation services are less commonly studied. The remainder of the thesis addresses two aspects of climate change, namely mitigation and adaptation, and brings methodological contributions by leveraging two ways of overcoming obstacles to the investigation of environmental objectives with large-scale bio-economic models: model couplings and the consideration of local environmental conditions. Both chapters focus on France, where the diversity of local contexts makes analyses focused on the upstream forest sector relevant, and use the French Forest Sector Model (FFSM). First, using the FFSM and Hartman’s model for optimal rotations with non-timber amenities, we investigate consequences for forestry and landscapes of management practices aiming at both producing timber and sequestering carbon. We show that, while postponing harvests can increase carbon stocks in the short-term, changes in management regimes and species choice yield additional benefits in the long-term. Over time, these changes lead to more diverse forest landscapes in terms of composition and structure, with potential implications for policy and environmental co-benefits. However, trends show a high level of spatial variability across and within regions, highlighting the importance of considering the local context. In-situ carbon stocks are however exposed to risks of non-permanence. We assess implications for the forest sector of climate-induced changes in wildfire regimes, as well as implications for model projections of uncertainties related to these changes. To do so, we use a probabilistic model of wildfire activity, which we couple to the FFSM, and we carry out multiple simulations using various radiative forcing levels and different climate models. Although locally significant, wildfires’ impacts remain limited at the sectoral scale. Fires affect a limited amount of the resource every year but in a cumulative manner, and the influence of climate change is mostly witnessed in the latter half of the century. Inter-annual fluctuations in fire activity only marginally propagate to the forest sector, and most uncertainty comes from the choice of climate models and scenarios. Stochasticity in the fire process, although never predominant, accounts for a significant share of uncertainty. These results stress the importance of considering multiple possible outcomes and the inherent variability in environmental processes in large-scale model projections.