Miguel Rivière

AgroParisTech

We explore the implications of managing forests for the dual purpose of sequestering carbon and producing timber, using a model of the forest sector that includes a Hartman-based representation of forest owners’ behaviour as well as heterogeneity in environmental conditions. We focus on France, where recent policies aim at increasing the carbon sin...

Forest sector models encompass a set of models used for forest-related policy analysis. As representations of a complex human-environment system, they incorporate multiple facts from their target, the forest sector, which is usually understood as comprising forests, forestry and forest industries. Even though they pursue similar goals and display s...

Modeling wildfire activity is crucial for informing science‐based risk management and understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of fire‐prone ecosystems worldwide. Models help disentangle the relative influences of different factors, understand wildfire predictability, and provide insights into specific events. Here, we develop Firelihood, a two‐co...

Under the influence of climate change, wildfire regimes are expected to intensify and expand to new areas, increasing threats to natural and socioeconomic assets. We explore the environmental and economic implications for the forest sector of climate-induced changes in wildfire regimes. To retain genericity while considering local determinants, we...

Storms pose a significant threat to economic activities in the forest sector and introduce non-permanence risks for carbon stocks. Following escalating climate ambitions, understanding and addressing these risks becomes imperative. Uncertainties intrinsic to the storm phenomenon render this task complex. This study uses an integrated forest sector...

At the heart of economic, industrial and environmental issues, the forest sector plays a decisive role in addressing climate change. In this context, foresight modeling is an indispensable tool for informing public policy. This approach, which explores probable futures through numerical simulations, offers a valuable framework for anticipating deve...

Au coeur d'enjeux économiques, industriels et environnementaux, le secteur forêt-bois est déterminant pour relever le défi climatique. Dans ce contexte, la modélisation prospective est un outil indispensable pour éclairer l'action publique. Cette approche, qui explore les futurs probables à travers des simulations numériques, offre un cadre précieu...

Cet article présente les résultats de la discussion sur le thème « Crises en forêt : impacts économiques et viabilité des solutions d’adaptation » menée lors des ateliers ReGeFor 2020. Messages clés: Lors de sondages, la crise en forêt la plus souvent citée est celle liée à la sécheresse. Ces crises ont des répercussions directes sur la fourniture...

Key message We provide a database of 52 silvicultural scenarios recommended in French public forests including relevant dendrometric variables and metrics for carbon accounting. The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.57745/QARRFS . Associated metadata are available at https://metadata-afs.nancy.inra.fr/geonetwork/srv/fre/catalog.search#/met...

Background Identifying if and how climatic and non-climatic factors drive local changes in fire regimes is, as in many other human-dominated landscapes, challenging in south-eastern France where both heterogeneous spatial patterns and complex fire trends are observed. Aim We sought to identify the factors driving the spatial-temporal patterns of fi...

Simulation models are often used to carry out prospective experiments about the future of the economy in order to support decision-making. We discuss how such models are validated, taking the example of bio-economic models of the forestry sector. The original publication is available at http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/311327

Forest policy increasingly mobilizes the forest sector to address environmental concerns. Owing to the forest sector’s complexity and time scales involved, simulation models are often used as research methods to explore the future. This thesis investigates the contributions of Forest Sector Models (FSM), bio-economic simulation models commonly used...

Objectives: Evaluate the capacity of temperate forest resources to both provide climate change mitigation and to sustain the downstream timber sector explicitly considering the cascade of biophysical and economic drivers (in particular, climate change impacts and subsequent adaptation actions) and their uncertainty. Methodology: A recursive bio-eco...

Integrated simulation models are commonly used to provide insight on the complex functioning of social-ecological systems, often drawing on earlier tools with a narrower focus. Forest sector models (FSM) encompass a set of simulation models originally developed to forecast economic developments in timber markets but now commonly used to analyse cli...

Modelling wildfire activity is crucial for informing science-based risk management and understanding fire-prone ecosystem functioning worldwide. Models also help to disentangle the relative roles of different factors, to understand wildfire predictability or to provide insights into specific events. Here, we develop a two-component Bayesian hierarc...

Initially developped to perform projections of timber markets, Forest Sector Models are now commonly used to adress environmental issues. We review such uses and highlight that Forest Sector Models have gradually become specialised in climate issues, while other topics (biodiversity, disturbances) remain less central.

In 1993, Sweden issued a new forestry act, which gives equal importance to timber production and nature protection, and uses a wide range of policy tools, known as the Swedish forestry model, to achieve its goals. However, there is evidence that the Swedish forestry model does not perform as well as expected, especially regarding the involvement of...