Miguel CarriquiryUniversidad de la República de Uruguay | UdelaR · Instituto de Economia
Miguel Carriquiry
Phd, Agricultural Economics
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Introduction
Skills and Expertise
Publications
Publications (71)
Latin America is a major agricultural producer with important natural resources. Efforts have been made to protect sensitive areas but are hindered by agricultural trade disruptions outside the control of individual countries due to globally integrated crop markets. This analysis assesses the effects of two trade shocks, that is, the war in Ukraine...
We integrate a model that simulates biophysical processes in soils and water with spatial and temporal heterogeneity at the basin scale with an economic model of decisions under uncertainty, to simultaneously evaluate the economic and environmental effects of farming practices and land uses that characterise agricultural intensification. The introd...
Electrification of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet in the United States (U.S.) decreases the long-term demand for maize ethanol. This analysis assesses the consequences of accelerated penetration of electric vehicles into the U.S. LDV fleet on global food production, prices, land-use, and carbon emissions. Population and income growth are framed...
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has destabilized global agricultural markets, triggering food price increases. We present scenarios of reduced exports and production affecting both countries that increase maize and wheat prices by up to 4.6% and 7.2%, respectively. Production expansion in other regions can partially compensate for export declines b...
We calibrate the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development International Agricultural Commodity Market model using 2019/20 marketing year crop data and 2020 calendar year livestock and biofuel data to project China's agricultural imports under six plausible policy scenarios focusing on ethanol, corn, and pork from 2021 to 2030. Our baseline pro...
Future agricultural production is influenced by climate change and changes in policies and behavior, such as the proliferation of battery electric vehicles (BEV). For the United States (U.S.), the influence of the latter is more pronounced due to the size of the U.S. biofuel industry. Using a global agricultural trade model and different climate ch...
This analysis quantifies changesin global agricultural markets for maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat due to yield changes triggered by climate change. The scenarios include four representative concentration pathways (RCP), five global climate models, three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) capturing differences in population levels and economic g...
China is a major importer of agricultural products and we examine retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on U.S. pork, soybeans, corn, and wheat. We use an agricultural trade model to determine the impacts on agricultural commodity markets and combine our results with an input‐output model to measure economic effects in the United States. In addition...
Increasing biofuel production over the last decade and biofuel policies in Brazil, the European Union, and the United States have changed the global agricultural landscape in terms of land-use, commodity prices, and trade. Increasing fuel efficiency and electrification of the vehicle stock is projected to lower gasoline, diesel, and biofuel demand...
We estimate emissions from indirect land‐use change associated with U.S. corn ethanol production by using the updated Center for Agricultural and Rural Development/Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute global agricultural outlook model, which incorporates sub‐national land‐use modeling in Brazil and endogenous crop yield‐price relationshi...
Agricultural production will play an increasing role in the development of renewable energy sources. Modeling land use changes due to agricultural conversion continues to be a challenge. This chapter contributes by demonstrating an improved methodology to empirically determine elasticities used to compute land use change. It presents an updated lan...
Se sintetiza a modo de memorias del IV Foro sobre Servicios Ecosistémicos relaiazado por el Grupo Interinstitucional de Trabajo sobre Servicios Ecosistemicos, coordinado por el IICA. Se presentan y discuten los avances en el conocimiento e investigación sobre Servicios ecosistémicos.
The objective of this presentation was, on one hand, to provide background information about the relevance of the agricultural sector in Uruguay and the public policies toward sustainable intensification and climate change adaptation. On the other hand, to present the SDSN ATP initiative in Uruguay, including methods and implementation pathways und...
A new set of objectives for sustainable development are now in place, known as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and countries need to develop concrete policy roadmaps to achieve them. This is particularly challenging in the agricultural sector given the heterogeneity of local conditions, the diffuse nature of its environmental impacts, and...
A los efectos prácticos y conceptuales, el proceso de intensificación sostenible puede verse como un problema de optimización multi-objetivo. El reto consiste en maximizar el flujo de beneficios económicos y sociales, al tiempo que se minimizan los impactos ambientales producidos por la actividad (emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, pérdida d...
Agriculture lies at the center of sustainable development. Its fundamental role as the supplier of human nutrition shapes the global economy and our rela9onship with the natural world. A vibrant, resilient and productive agricultural sector will be fundamental to achieving the post-‐2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore it is crucia...
La importancia económica, social y ambiental del sector ganadero cárnico fue determinante para que Uruguay sea el primer estudio de caso del Grupo 7 (Agricultura y sistemas alimentarios) del «Sustainable Development Solutions Network». El SDSN es una iniciativa de Naciones idas para el desarrollo y puesta en práctica de metas «postmilenio
» para el...
El proyecto "Intensificación sostenible de la ganadería: Uruguay 2030" surgió como una iniciativa de Naciones Unidas. El objetivo fue la puesta en práctica de metas “post-milenio” para el desarrollo sostenible del planeta, en el marco del Grupo 7: "Agricultura y sistemas alimentarios". El horizonte de análisis que llega hasta 2050, aunque el mayor...
The production cost of biofuels is one of the key determinants of the commercial viability of biofuels and its social costs of promoting through fiscal stimuli and regulations. Estimates of production costs for different types of biofuels vary widely and are evolving over time (see Fig. 3.1). The sources of variability depend on the category/feedst...
Consumption of ethanol in the United States has increased rapidly over the last few years, fueled by both higher crude oil prices and generous public support measures for renewable fuels. The contribution of ethanol to the transport energy mix varies markedly by state. Heterogeneity in ethanol adoption and market development is investigated using a...
Increased biofuel production has been associated with direct and indirect land-use change, changes in land management practices, and increased application of fertilizers and pesticides. This has resulted in negative environmental consequences in terms of increased carbon emissions, water quality, pollution, and sediment loads, which may offset the...
F. Taheripour and W. E. Tyner use a multiregional computable general equilibrium model (GTAP-BIO), modified to include second-generation biofuels, to evaluate induced land use change (ILUC) emissions for alternative biofuel pathways in the United States. They calculate the ILUC emissions using four existing major emission factors and examine the un...
Even with a normalized and standardized biofuel shock, the wide range of land-use change estimates and their associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have raised concern on the adequacy of existing agricultural models in this new area of analysis. In particular, reducing bias and improving precision of impact estimates are of primary concern to po...
A spatially disaggregated model of Brazilian agriculture is used to assess the implications of global biofuel expansion on Brazilian land use at the regional level. After establishing a baseline, two scenarios are investigated. First, an exogenous increase in the global demand for biofuel is introduced into the model, and the impact is analyzed in...
We couple a global agricultural production and trade model with a greenhouse gas model to assess leakage associated with modified beef production in the United States. The effects on emissions from agricultural production (i.e., methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and crop management) as well as from land-use change, especially grazi...
Countries that export biofuel feedstocks such as grain or sugar and that are also importers of motor fuels will have a natural competitive advantage over other countries in the production of biofuels. Argentina is one of a very few countries that both export potential feedstocks and import gasoline and diesel. This combination means that an Argenti...
Index insurance and probabilistic seasonal forecasts are becoming available in developing countries to help farmers manage climate risks in production. Although these tools are intimately related, work has not been done to formalize the connections between them. We investigate the relationship between the tools through a model of input choice under...
An agricultural projection and greenhouse gas model are used to assess the impact of global cropland expansion on carbon emissions
and the sensitivity of those estimates to modifications in assumptions concerning idle cropland, the degree of refinement
in carbon coefficients, market responses, and yield increase. The results indicate that the impac...
Weather has always presented a challenge to small-scale farmers,
particularly in regions where poverty and lack of infrastructure has
restricted the development of financial instruments to limit risk. New
'index' insurance innovations in agriculture are beginning to enable
even the poorest farmers to unlock major productivity gains (e.g.
insuring l...
The elasticity of aggregate supply of cropland is one key to understanding the degree to which policy-induced increases in
demand for biofuel feedstocks or agricultural CO2 offsets will result in higher prices or expanded crop production. We report land supply elasticities for the United States
and Brazil estimated directly from recent changes in p...
Crops are at risk in a changing climate. Farmers in the developing world
will be able to insure against harvest failure if robust insurance
packages, based on a geophysical index rather than individual loss,
become widely available.
This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 201...
We use a spatially disaggregated model of Brazilian agriculture to assess the implications of global biofuel expansion on Brazilian land usage at the regional level. This Brazilian model is part of the FAPRI agricultural modeling system, a multimarket, multi-commodity international agricultural model, used to quantify the emergence of biofuels and...
Recent increases in production of crop-based (or first-generation) biofuels have engendered increasing concerns over potential conflicts with food supplies and land protection, as well as disputes over greenhouse gas reductions. This has heightened a sense of urgency around the development of biofuels produced from non-food biomass (second-generati...
The U.S. ethanol industry is lobbying hard for an extension of existing ethanol import tariffs and blenders tax credits before they expire at the end of 2010. The purpose of this study is to examine the likely consequences on the U.S. ethanol industry, corn producers, taxpayers, fuel blenders, and fuel consumers if current policy is not extended. I...
This study examines the world market impact of an expansion in the biofuel sector in the European Union with particular focus on indirect land-use impacts. In the first scenario, an increase of 1 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) of wheat ethanol use in the European Union expands world land area used in agricultural commodity production by 366,0...
This paper evaluates the land-use and greenhouse gas emission impact of higher yields in the European Union and a livestock tax in the United States using a global agricultural outlook model and a greenhouse gas model that includes land-use change from cropland and pasture. Both policies are intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing...
This report provides insight into four aspects of modeling indirect land use caused by expanded biofuels production. The report was motivated by the National Biodiesel Board's interest in better understanding how the California Air Resources Board (CARB) estimated an indirect land-use factor for soybean-based biodiesel of 66 gCO2e/MJ, which is more...
It goes without saying that most crops are sensitive to variations in weather and climate. When the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation on rainfall for several regions of the world was first discovered climate scientists assumed that this information would be of immediate use by farmers, the general agricultural community, and other commu...
Climate variability poses a severe threat to subsistence farmers in southern Africa. Two different approaches have emerged in recent years to address these threats: the use of seasonal precipitation forecasts for risk reduction (for example, choosing seed varieties that can perform well for expected rainfall conditions), and the use of innovative f...
Effects of sampling error in estimation of farmers’ mean yields for crop insurance purposes and their implications for actuarial soundness are explored using farm-level corn yield data in Iowa. Results indicate that sampling error, combined with nonlinearities in the indemnity function, leads to empirically estimated insurance rates that exceed a...
The FAPRI 2008 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. The outlook uses a macroeconomic forecast developed by Global Insight.
Biofuel subsidies in the United States have been justified on the following grounds: energy independence, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, improvements in rural development related to biofuel plants, and farm income support. The 2007 energy act emphasizes the first two objectives. In this study, we quantify the costs and benefits that diffe...
This paper explores the performance of a system of economic instruments designed to facilitate the reduction of hydroclimatologic variability-induced impacts on stakeholders of shared water supply. The system is composed of bulk water option contracts between urban water suppliers and agricultural users and insurance indexed on reservoir inflows. T...
Many food traits desired by consumers are costly to provide and difficult to verify. A complicating factor is that delivered
quality can only be affected stochastically by producers and imperfectly observed by consumers. Markets for these goods will
emerge only if supplying firms can be trusted. We develop a repeated purchases model to explore how...
La información aquí presentada forma parte del primer estudio de esta naturaleza llevado a cabo para la región atlántica del Cono Sur. Se trata de resultados primarios que deben ser analizados con precaución y cuyo interés principal es establecer la necesidad de continuar estudiando los potenciales efectos económicos del calentamiento global sobre...
Worldwide production of biodiesel is growing at a rapid pace. Arguably, the European Union (EU) is the global leader in biodiesel production, but the United States has recently expanded its production. The growth of the biodiesel industry in both regions has been fueled by a series of government-provided financial incentives. However, the timing of...
Hydroclimatological variability presents acute challenges to urban water supply providers. The impact is often most severe in developing nations where hydrologic and climate variability can be very high, water demand is unmet and increasing, and the financial resources to mitigate the social effects of that variability are limited. Furthermore, exi...
The failure of the development of commercially viable traditional crop insurance products and innovations in financial markers has fed a renewed interest in the search for alternatives to help producers in developing countries manage their risk exposure. Salient among these is the proposal of several index insurance schemes against weather events....
The effect of sampling error in estimation of farmers’ mean yields for crop insurance purposes is explored using farm-level corn yield data in Iowa from 1990 to 2000 and Monte Carlo simulations. We find that sampling error combined with nonlinearities in the insurance indemnity function will result in empirically estimated crop insurance rates that...
Based on accepted advances in the marketing, economics, consumer behavior, and satisfaction literatures, we develop a micro-foundations model of a firm that needs to manage the quality of a product that is inherently heterogeneous in the presence of varying customer tastes or expectations for quality. Our model blends elements of the returns to qua...
Hotelling's classic model of spatial competition is adapted to estimate the impacts on grain price of the closure of one of three grain buyers on the Mississippi River in the vicinity of Scott County, Iowa. The customers of the buyer who is closing (River Gulf Grain Company) in Davenport, Iowa, are assumed to deliver their grain to a buyer in eithe...
Hotelling's classic model of spatial competition is used to estimate the impacts on price of the closure of one of three grain buyers on the Mississippi River in the vicinity of Scott County, Iowa. The customers of the buyer who is closing (River Gulf Grain Company) in Davenport, Iowa, are assumed to deliver their grain to a buyer in either Buffalo...
Participants in the beef supply chain have, at best, imperfect information about some quality attributes of the product (e.g., live animals, carcasses, or cuts) they are buying, handling, and/or processing and selling to their downstream customers. In many cases, the quality of the final product, destination, and/or appropriate handling or processi...
Participants in a supply chain of agricultural value-added products face significant challenges. Many of the costly distinctive traits desired by consumers are difficult (if not impossible) to observe even after consumption. A complicating factor, addressed here, is that in some circumstances delivered quality can only be imperfectly learned and/or...
New quality assurance systems (QASs) are being put in place to facilitate the flow of information about agricultural and food products. But what constitutes a proper mix of public and private efforts in setting up QASs is an unsettled question. A better understanding of private sector incentives for setting up such systems will help clarify what ro...
New production technologies, consumers who are more discriminating, and the need for improved coordination are among the forces driving the move from spot markets to contracts. Some worry that this tendency will result in the disappearance of spot markets, or at least that they will become too thin to be of help for an efficient price discovery pro...
New production technologies, consumers who are more discriminating, and the need for improved coordination are among the forces driving the move from spot markets to contracts. Some worry that this tendency will result in the disappearance of spot markets, or at least that they will become too thin to be of help for an efficient price discovery pro...
We present a global agricultural greenhouse gas model that assesses emissions from land-use change. In addition to evaluating shifts in and out of crop production, we develop a pasture model to assess extensification and intensification of global livestock production based on herd size and stocking rate. We apply the model to a scenario that introd...
Focusing on dynamics of the relative prices of substitute fuels, namely ethanol and gasoline, this study quantifies the impact of the increase in shares of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) in the vehicle fleet on the domestic ethanol prices in Brazil. A modified partial adjustment model is employed. Estimation results provide strong support for our resear...
La actividad agropecuaria en general, y la producción de cultivos anuales en particular, están sujetas a diversos tipos de riesgos. A grandes rasgos (y de manera relativamente arbitraria) los riesgos relevantes para el productor agropecuario pueden ser clasificados como de producción, de precios, tecnológicos, y de políticas (Moschini y Hennessy, 2...
Participants in a supply chain of agricultural value added products face two significant challenges. First, many of the costly distinctive traits being desired by consumers are difficult (if not impossible) to observe even after consumption. In order for markets for these classes of goods to develop, firms touting the quality of the product need to...