Michele Costola

Michele Costola
Università Ca' Foscari Venezia | UNIVE · Department of Economics

Phd in Economics and Management

About

51
Publications
4,598
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226
Citations
Additional affiliations
January 2010 - September 2013
University of Padova
Position
  • PhD

Publications

Publications (51)
Article
Full-text available
We investigate the relationship between building energy efficiency and the probability of mortgage default. To this end, we construct a novel panel data set by combining Dutch loan-level mortgage information with provisional building energy ratings provided by the Netherlands Enterprise Agency. Using the logit regression and the extended Cox model,...
Article
Full-text available
We revisit in this article the Two-Fund Separation Theorem as a simple technique for the Mean–Variance optimization of large portfolios. The proposed approach is fast and scalable and provides equivalent results of commonly used ML techniques but, with computing time differences counted in hours (1 min vs. several hours). In the empirical applicati...
Article
The analysis of causality among oil prices and, in general, between financial and economic variables is of central relevance in applied economic studies. The recent contribution of Lu et al. (2014) proposes a new causality test, the DCC-MGARCH Hong test. We show that the critical values of the test statistic should be evaluated through simulations...
Article
We examine the connectedness in the energy commodities sector and the Russian stock market over the period 2005-2020 using the variance decomposition approach. Our analysis identifies the booms and busts in the correspondence of political and war episodes that are related to spillover effects in the Russian economy, as well as the energy commoditie...
Article
Full-text available
We propose a novel index of global risks awareness (GRAI) based on the most concerning risks—classified in five categories (economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological)—reported by the World Economic Forum (WEF) according to the potential impact and likelihood occurrence. The degree of public concern toward these risks is cap...
Article
Recent studies indicate that systemic risk has predictive power over severe economic downturns. We propose a novel methodology that employs sparsity and targeting approaches to optimally select and combine systemic risk measures to forecast the tail of a given economic variable. Out-of-sample analysis shows that the optimal combination of systemic...
Article
Network models represent a useful tool to describe the complex set of financial relationships among heterogeneous firms in the system. A new Bayesian semiparametric model for temporal multilayer networks with both intra- and inter-layer connectivity is proposed. A hierarchical mixture prior distribution is assumed to capture heterogeneity in the re...
Article
Full-text available
We analyze the ESG rating criteria used by prominent agencies and show that there is a lack of a commonality in the definition of ESG (i) characteristics, (ii) attributes and (iii) standards in defining E, S and G components. We provide evidence that heterogeneity in rating criteria can lead agencies to have opposite opinions on the same evaluated...
Article
Full-text available
The meme stock phenomenon has yet to be explored. In this note, we provide evidence that these stocks display common stylized facts for the dynamics of price, trading volume, and social media activity. Using a regime-switching cointegration model, we identify the meme stock “mementum” which exhibits a different characterization compared to other st...
Preprint
Full-text available
The meme stock phenomenon is yet to be explored. In this note, we provide evidence that these stocks display common stylized facts on the dynamics of price, trading volume, and social media activity. Using a regime-switching cointegration model, we identify the meme stock "mementum" which exhibits a different characterization with respect to other...
Article
Full-text available
Networks represent a useful tool to describe relationships among financial firms and network analysis has been extensively used in recent years to study financial connectedness. An aspect, which is often neglected, is that network observations come with errors from different sources, such as estimation and measurement errors, thus a proper statisti...
Article
During the outbreak of the COVID-19, concerns related to the severity of the pandemic have played a prominent role in investment decisions. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between public attention and the financial markets using search engine data from Google Trends. Our findings show that search query volumes in Italy, Germany, France,...
Chapter
Full-text available
Pandemics are disruptive events that have profound consequences for society and the economy. This volume aims to present an analysis of the economic impact of COVID-19 and its likely consequences for our future. This is achieved by drawing from the expertise of authors who specialise in a wide range of fields including fiscal and monetary policy, b...
Preprint
Full-text available
We measure public concern in Italy, Germany, France, Great Britain, Spain and the United States during the outbreak of COVID-19 using three search-engine data sources from Google Trends: YouTube, Google News and Google Search. We find that the dynamic of public concern in Italy is a driver of that in other countries. Among the Google trends series,...
Chapter
This Chapter reviews the main classes of models that incorporate volatility, with a focus on the most recent advancements in the financial econometrics literature and on the challenges posed by the increased availability of data. There are limits to the feasibility of all models when the cross-sectional dimension diverges, unless strong restriction...
Article
Full-text available
This study measures public concern in Italy, Germany, France, Great Britain, Spain, and the United States during the outbreak of COVID-19 using three search-engine data sources from Google Trends: YouTube, Google News, and Google Search. The results show that the dynamic of public concern in Italy anticipates the level of public concern in other c...
Article
Full-text available
We investigate the default probability, recovery rates and loss distribution of a portfolio of securitised loans granted to Italian small and medium enterprises (SMEs). To this end, we use loan level data information provided by the European DataWarehouse platform and employ a logistic regression to estimate the company default probability. We incl...
Article
Models for conditional heteroskedasticity belonging to the GARCH class are now common tools in many economics and finance applications. Among the many possible competing univariate GARCH models, one of the most interesting groups allows for the presence of the so-called asymmetry or leverage effect. In our view, asymmetry and leverage are two disti...
Article
We propose a shrinkage and selection methodology specifically designed for network inference using high dimensional data through a regularised linear regression model with Spike-and-Slab prior on the parameters. The approach extends the case where the error terms are heteroscedastic, by adding an ARCH-type equation through an approximate Expectatio...
Article
This paper proposes a Bayesian nonparametric homogeneity test for distributional changes. We provide an asymptotic approximation of the Bayes factor and show that it is related to the Shannon entropy. The proposed test is suitable for large high-dimensional datasets which otherwise require time-consuming computation for posterior approximation. An...
Chapter
We propose a Bayesian approach to the problem of variable selection and shrinkage in high dimensional sparse regression models where the regularisation method is an extension of a previous LASSO. The model allows us to include a large number of institutions which improves the identification of the relationship and maintains at the same time the fle...
Chapter
We extend the study of rate of convergence to consensus of autonomous agents on an interaction network. In particular, we introduce antagonistic interactions and thus a signed network. This will allow to include the, previously discarded, sign information, in the analysis of disagreement on statistical financial networks.
Article
Scholars in management and economics have shown increasing interest in isolating the behavioural dimension of market evolution. Indeed, by improving forecast accuracy and precision, this exercise would certainly help firms to anticipate economic fluctuations, thus leading to more profitable business and investment strategies. Yet, how to extract th...
Article
Several recent finance articles use the Omega measure (Keating and Shadwick, 2002), defined as a ratio of potential gains out of possible losses, for gauging the performance of funds or active strategies, in substitution of the traditional Sharpe ratio, with the arguments that return distributions are not Gaussian and volatility is not always the r...
Article
The paper analyses the contagion channels of the European fi�nancial system through the stochastic block model (SBM). The model groups homogeneous connectivity patterns among the �financial institutions and describes the shock transmission mechanisms of the fi�nancial networks in a compact way. We analyse the global fi�nancial crisis and European s...
Article
This paper examines the relationship between oil movements and systemic risk of financial institution in major petroleum-based economies. We estimate ΔCoVaR for those institutions and observe the presence of elevated increases in its levels corresponding to the subprime and global financial crises. The results provide evidence in favor of risk meas...
Article
We analyze the time evolution of systemic risk in Europe by using different entropy measures and construct a new early warning indicator for banking crises. The analysis is based on the cross-sectional distribution of systemic risk measures such as Marginal Expected Shortfall, Delta CoVaR and network connectedness. These measures are conceived at a...
Article
The authors present a rational learner agent, which considers the information coming from a behavioral counterpart during the allocation process. The learner agent adopts a herding behavior by conditioning her choice on the selection of the portfolio’s constituents. They use the concept of performance measure to define agents’ preferences: the high...
Article
Full-text available
We introduce a novel criterion for performance measure combination designed to be used as an equity screening algorithm. The proposed approach follows the general idea of linearly combining selected performance measures with positive weights and combination weights are determined by means of an optimisation step. The underlying criterion function t...
Article
We study the evolution of the behavioral component of the financial market by estimating a Bayesian mixture model in which two types of investors coexist: one rational, with stan-dard subjective expected utility theory (SEUT) preferences, and one behavioral, endowed with an S-shaped utility function. We perform our analysis by using monthly data on...
Chapter
We present a methodology to build a new sentiment index of market (ir)rationality. The proposed index, derived only on the basis of equity market prices, could be used to monitor the impact on behavioural-driven agent's choices. In this note, we discuss the main idea behind the proposed approach. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland...
Article
Several recent finance articles employ the Omega measure, proposed by Keating and Shadwick (2002) – defined as a ratio of potential gains out of possible losses – for gauging the performance of funds or active strategies (e.g. Eling and Schuhmacher, 2007; Bertrand and Prigent, 2011), in substitution of the traditional Sharpe ratio (1966), with the...
Article
We introduce a novel criterion for performance measure combination designed to be used as an equity screening algorithm. The proposed approach follows the general idea of linearly combining existing performance measures with positive weights and the combination weights are determined by means of an optimisation problem. The underlying criterion fun...

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Project (1)
Project
The aim of the EARLINESS.eu project is to implement a EWS for systemic risk to prevent and mitigate financial instability by exploiting the linkages among the financial markets and the real economy. Given the potentially high and unsustainable costs caused by systemic crises, it is of fundamental importance to establish a comprehensive system of early warning signals and indicators to monitor them.