Michael Kenneth Townsley

Michael Kenneth Townsley
Griffith University · School of Criminology and Criminal Justice

PhD

About

74
Publications
34,636
Reads
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2,322
Citations
Citations since 2017
5 Research Items
1229 Citations
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2017201820192020202120222023050100150200
2017201820192020202120222023050100150200
2017201820192020202120222023050100150200

Publications

Publications (74)
Technical Report
This report details the results of a quantitative quasi-experimental evaluation of a new model of probation and parole called “Triple-S: Social Supports in Supervision”, in which officers incorporate “PoPPs” (Parents/Partners/Peers of Probationers and Parolees) into the supervision process to reduce crime opportunities and limit the exercise of pro...
Article
This study details the results of a quantitative evaluation of a new model of probation and parole called "Triple-S: Social Supports in Supervision". The pilot project positioned Community Corrections staff as “super controllers” who incorporate "PoPPs" (Parents/Partners/Peers of Probationers and Parolees) into each client's order to serve in the r...
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Background: The emergence of new technology-facilitated types of crime following the advent of the Internet necessitated the re-examination of the utility of traditional theories such as lifestyle-routine activity theory to explain crimes that occur in the new and unique environment of cyberspace. Reason for study: The objective of this study was...
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Cyber abuse can be executed directly (e.g. by sending derogatory emails or text messages addressed to the victim) or indirectly (e.g. by posting derogatory, private or false information, documents, images or videos about the victim online). This exploratory, mixed-method, triangulated study examines cyber abuse crime events with the goal of identif...
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Independent analysis of police, fire, and ambulance calls for service demonstrates common patterns in emergency service activity. Targeted, place-focused interventions have been demonstrated to prevent future problems for emergency services. This research builds on these findings to examine the spatial and temporal intersection of police, fire, and...
Article
Introduction and AimsThe lockout intervention has become embedded in Australian alcohol policy with little scientific evidence of its effectiveness in reducing violence and disorder. This paper reports an evaluation of the Queensland lockout pilot in Surfers Paradise. Patrons could not enter or re-enter licensed venues after 3am, while patrons insi...
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With the advent of the Internet and the emergence of cybercrimes (e.g., cyber stalking, cyber harassment), criminologists have begun to explore the empirical utility of lifestyle exposure and routine activity theories (RATs) to account for personal victimization as a consequence of cyber abuse. Available cyber abuse studies have produced inconsiste...
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Objectives This study explores preference variation in location choice strategies of residential burglars. Applying a model of offender target selection that is grounded in assertions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective, crime pattern and social disorganization theories, it seeks to address the as yet untested assumption t...
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This study examines how super controllers, actors responsible for creating incentives for controllers (handlers, place managers and guardians), prevent maritime piracy. Using a segmented regression model, we estimate the impact of three major anti-pirate initiatives (increased place management, increased handling and increased guardianship) using n...
Article
Recently, time series Moran scatterplot quadrant signatures (MSQS) have been introduced as a means of spatio-temporal analysis. Moran scatter plots summarise a set of local Moran statistics that identify how a quantity of interest relates to its neighbours. By reducing these scatter plots to just one of four quadrant locations at fixed time interva...
Article
Objectives: This study builds on research undertaken by Bernasco and Nieuwbeerta and explores the generalizability of a theoretically derived offender target selection model in three cross-national study regions. Methods: Taking a discrete spatial choice approach, we estimate the impact of both environment- and offender-level factors on residential...
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Objectives: This study builds on research undertaken by Bernasco and Nieuwbeerta and explores the generalizability of a theoretically derived offender target selection model in three cross-national study regions. Methods: Taking a discrete spatial choice approach, we estimate the impact of both environment- and offender-level factors on residential...
Technical Report
Full-text available
In recent years, local and state governments have implemented changes to planning legislation and regulations, signalling a shift towards high-density housing, or vertical communities, in order to ease the strain of maintaining a sprawling infrastructure base (Healy & Birrell 2006; Newman & Kenworthy 1989). However, little consideration has been gi...
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Maritime piracy is now recognised as a critical security problem that attracts news coverage worldwide. The International Maritime Organisation recommends a series of ship protection measures to be used by vessels travelling at sea to prevent and disrupt pirate attacks. However, limited research exists on the effectiveness of these situational meas...
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Alcohol-related violence has long been regarded a serious social problem in Australia. Extensive research has been conducted analysing the relationship between alcohol, crowding and aggression inside licensed premises, consistently finding that situational and social factors play significant roles. However, there has been a dearth of empirical rese...
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Objectives Apply computational agent-based modeling to explore the generative sufficiency of several mechanisms derived from the field of environmental criminology in explaining commonly observed patterns of interpersonal victimization. Method Controlled simulation experiments compared patterns of simulated interpersonal victimization to three emp...
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The article examines space-time patterns of maritime piracy around the Horn of Africa. Using rational choice theory and optimal foraging theory as the theoretic frame, 6 years of recorded pirate attack data were used to test whether spatial and temporal attack patterns were independent. The results indicate evidence for a communicability of risk; t...
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The extent to which criminal offending is disproportionately committed against the same households and individuals is noted, highlighting the consequential crime reduction possibilities. The demonstrated communicability of burglary risk across households located nearby extends those possibilities. A burglary reduction project in Knowsley, Merseysid...
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This study demonstrates that computational modeling and, in particular, agent‐based modeling (ABM) offers a viable compatriot to traditional experimental methodologies for criminology scholars. ABM can be used as a means to operationalize and test hypothetical mechanisms that offer a potential explanation for commonly observed criminological phenom...
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Crime analysts have traditionally received little guidance from academic researchers in key tasks in the analysis process, specifically the testing of multiple hypotheses and evaluating evidence in a scientific fashion. This article attempts to fill this gap by outlining a method (the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses) of systematically analysing mu...
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Despite the growing problem of clandestine drug laboratories, there is currently little evidence of systematic knowledge regarding the crime-commission process involved in this criminal enterprise. In addition, as mentioned by Levi and Maguire, strategic measures utilized in law enforcement interventions that extend beyond immediate operational goa...
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The results of this study reveal a major methodological problem with an established body of criminological literature—the journey to crime. The dominant finding of such research is that most crimes occur close to an offender's home. Consequently, journeys to crime typically display a distance-decay function that is assumed to exist between and with...
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Crime analysts attempt to identify regularities in police recorded crime data with a central view of disrupting the patterns found. One common method for doing so is hotspot mapping, focusing attention on spatial clustering as a route to crime reduction (Chainey & Ratcliffe, 2005; Clarke & Eck, 2003). Despite the widespread use of this analytical t...
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Despite criminology's widespread application of geography, the full implications of Cliff and Ord's article have yet to be realized. In this essay the major types of spatial studies in criminology are outlined, followed by a depiction of the context of criminological research at the time the article was published. Next the major changes to the fiel...
Chapter
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Journey to crime studies have attempted to illuminate aspects of offender decision making that has implications for theory and practice. This article argues that our current understanding of journey to crime is incomplete. It improves our understanding by resolving a fundamental unit of analysis issue that had thus far not received much attention i...
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Computer simulation models have changed the ways in which researchers are able to observe and study social phenomena such as crime. The ability of researchers to replicate the work of others is fundamental to a cumulative science, yet this rarely occurs in computer simulations. In this paper, we argue that, for computer simulations to be seen as a...
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This paper describes analyses to determine whether there is a space-time dependency for insurgent activity. The data used for the research were 3 months of terrorist incidents attributed to the insurgency in Iraq during U.S. occupation and the methods used are based on a body of work well established using police recorded crime data. It was found t...
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This special edition of Crime Prevention and Community Safety: An International Journal comprises selected papers presented at the 15th Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis (ECCA) seminar held at University College London, UK in July 2007. ECCA appears to be entering a new phase of growth, in terms of both participating members and research...
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Part of the interest in crime mapping may be due to the relevance of geography in explaining patterns of crime. There is, however, a danger in missing other patterns (temporal patterns most notably) if the spatial domain is given disproportionate focus. A number of recent academic studies have shown reliable and meaningful spatio-temporal patterns...
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This chapter outlines how simulation methods might be used to make valid causal inferences in the social sciences, specifically the study of crime. We argue that significant threats to validity exist for simulation studies and that, if researchers do not actively take measures to minimize these, much of the promise of simulation will not come to pa...
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This paper ascertains the feasibility of using a data mining supervised learning algorithm to predict which crime scenes potentially offer the best opportunity of recovering forensic samples such as finger prints or DNA. UK police forces have a finite number of Crime Scene Investigators and an ever-increasing demand to attend crime scenes. Most for...
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Using epidemiological techniques for testing disease contagion, it has recently been found that in the wake of a residential burglary, the risk to nearby homes is temporarily elevated. This paper demonstrates the ubiquity of this phenomenon by analyzing space–time patterns of burglary in 10 areas, located in five different countries. While the prec...
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The September 2005 review of policing structure in England and Wales by Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) is considered in terms of its impact on forces' ability to detect volume crime (crime types that occur in relatively large numbers). We demonstrate that there is no relationship between force size and detection rates, however th...
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This paper examines how data mining techniques can assist the monitoring of Crime Scene Investigator performance. The findings show that Investigators can be placed in one of four groups according to their ability to recover DNA and fingerprints from crime scenes. They also show that their ability to predict which crime scenes will yield the best o...
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This book provides an introduction to crime science, setting out its essentials. It provides a major statement of the nature and aspirations of crime science, and presents a series of case studies providing examples, in different settings, of the approach in action, ranging from preventing crime within correctional institutions to the use of techni...
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This paper explores one aspect of spatial dependence for the offence of burglary, utilising epidemiological methods for the study of infectious diseases to investigate the phenomenon of near repeat victimization. The near repeat burglary hypothesis states that proximity to a burgled dwelling increases burglary risk for those areas that have a high...
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Full-text available
This paper explores one aspect of spatial dependence for the offence of burglary, utilising epidemiological methods for the study of infectious diseases to investigate the phenomenon of near repeat victimization. The near repeat burglary hypothesis states that proximity to a burgled dwelling increases burglary risk for those areas that have a high...
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This report looks at the magnitude of crime perpetrated by the most active offenders in a particular police area and places it in the context of a research programme which seeks to integrate and render locally useful the major findings of applied criminology. The results are contrasting. In terms of all crime, the group of offenders nominated did n...
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The effective deployment of police resources is heavily de-pendent on the quality of analysis available. Over the past decade, the term "hot spots" has come to be commonplace in policing, and it is rare to find a police agency that cannot or does not identify spatial cluster-ing of criminal incidents. Equally rare is the consideration of any other...
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To date there has been little Australian research on repeat victimisation. This is a study of repeat burglary in an area of Brisbane using police calls for service data. We demonstrate: (a) the prevalence of residential repeat victim addresses ('hot dots') is of a similar magnitude to that found in studies in the United Kingdom; (b) the time distri...
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Community-based safety action projects, replications of the model developed in Surfers Paradise designed to reduce violence and disorder in licensed environments in city entertainment areas, were implemented in three diverse North Queensland cities (Cairns, Townsville and Mackay). The change model is based on prior experience with community interve...
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Preventing burglary is possible, but in Australia the prospects for major reductions are extremely poor. Current social trends are almost all criminogenic for burglary. Opportunities in the built environment are facilitated by increasing prosperity, the continuing proliferation of consumer goods, increasing population densities and residential mobi...
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DNA samples on the national database matching those found at scenes of serious violent or sexual crimes were identified. The earlier offence leading the sample to appear on the database was noted. The bulk (60-84% according to inclusion criteria) involved theft, drug or other offending. The result, indicating offender versatility, is consistent wit...
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Full-text available
DNA samples on the England and Wales national database matching those found at scenes of serious violent or sexual crimes were identified. The earlier offence leading the sample to appear on the database was noted. The bulk (60-84% according to inclusion criteria) involved theft, drug or other offending. The result, indicating offender versatility,...
Article
Book description: Leading authorities in the field address the theory and practice of problem-oriented policing, i.e. an approach which moves away from an incident-driven approach to policing towards more proactive and preventive approaches. They assess the advantages and disadvantages of this increasingly important approach in the work of the poli...
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The aims of this report are to sketch the theoretical basis of a series of safety action projects in three diverse North Queensland cities (Cairns, Townsville and Mackay), and to report some results. These projects, which aimed to improve the safety of licensed environments in the central city entertainment areas, are replications of the safety act...
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Those of you who knew Ken Pease will not be surprised at his failure to conform in time for this obituary. It will have to serve as a draft, and we welcome his further input for a revised version. However, this leaves us in the disappointing and methodologically challenging position of writing a prospective obituary. It is therefore serendipitous t...

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