Michael Rosholm

• PhD
• Professor at Aarhus University

Socioeconomic (SES) gaps in academic achievement are well documented. We show that a very similar gap exists with respect to genetic differences measured by a polygenic score (PGS) for educational attainment. The genetic gap increases during elementary school, but only among the low SES children. Consequently, the high PGS children experience the l...

Running two separate two-stage randomized trials, we implement and test three variants of a small group instruction intervention aimed at improving mathematics competencies for the 20% lowest achievers in mathematics in grades 2 and 8 in Danish public schools. We calculate immediate impacts on math competencies as well as impacts in the medium term...

Active labor market programs (ALMPs) are widely used to speed up return to work among the unemployed. We examine their long-run effects on employment- and health-related outcomes for different target groups, arguing that ALMPs are associated with heterogeneous effects for different target groups and may even detrimentally influence the mental healt...

This article presents and discusses ethical issues and implications in research when building a predictive risk model for potential use in Danish child and family welfare. The idea is to build a predictive risk model in order to study whether such a model can be valuable to child and family welfare services in the assessment of risk – aimed specifi...

Child maltreatment is a widespread problem with significant costs for both victims and society. In this retrospective cohort study, we develop predictive risk models using Danish administrative data to predict removal decisions among referred children and assess the effectiveness of caseworkers in identifying children at risk of maltreatment. The s...

Running two separate two-stage randomized trials, we implement and test three variants of a small group instruction intervention aimed at improving mathematics competencies for the 20% lowest achievers in mathematics in grades 2 and 8 in Danish public schools. We calculate immediate impacts on math competencies as well as impacts in the medium term...

This paper studies the interplay between genetics and family investments in the process of skill formation. We model and estimate the joint evolution of skills and parental investments throughout early childhood. We document three genetic mechanisms: the direct effect of child genes on skills, the indirect effect of child genes via parental investm...

Prediction from early development to later achievement has the potential to improve clinical and educational service delivery as well as to inform developmental theory. In this longitudinal study, we asked how well can educational achievement measured in the final year (Grade 9, age 15) of compulsory education—both overall and for outcomes in the l...

This paper investigates the context-dependence of genetic influences on human capital formation in Denmark. We show that the returns to genetic endowments are smaller for individuals that experienced childhood disadvantage. We discuss how we can rule out omitted variables or measurement error bias as explanations since we observe the attenuation ef...

Early intervention” has been a mantra in recent debates about human capital investment. Strong theoretical models motivate this focus by predicting that investment in children is most cost‐effective when they are young. The “Heckman curve” summarizes this idea visually (Heckman, 2006). However, hardly any reviews scrutinize this hypothesis empirica...

We evaluate a bridging intervention for a group of young people aged 18–29, with no formal educational qualifications, who are not in employment, education or training. The bridging intervention consisted of classroom training, educational internships and mentoring. Based on Danish register data with a large number of control variables, a propensit...

Objectives Mental disorders are associated with significant functional impairment, sickness absence and disability. The consequences of sickness absence warrant investigation into interventions aimed at enhancing return to work (RTW) for workers with mental disorders. The present systematic review and meta-analysis aim to synthesise evidence on the...

Using data from a large-scale randomized controlled trial conducted in Danish job centers, this paper investigates the effects of activating sick-listed workers on subsequent labour market outcomes. Comparing treated and controls, we find an overall unfavourable effect on subsequent labour market outcomes. Using variations in activation regimes (bo...

We analyse the effect of substituting a weekly mathematics lesson in primary school grades 1–3 with a lesson in mathematics based on chess instruction. We use data from the City of Aarhus in Denmark, combining test score data with a comprehensive data set obtained from administrative registers. We use two different methodological approaches to iden...

This paper compares the job finding rates of unemployed exposed to either public or private providers of employment services. Reporting from a randomized field experiment conducted in Denmark we assess empirically the case for contracting out employment services for a well-defined group of highly educated job-seekers (unemployed holding a universit...

We analyze the effects of four randomized social experiments, involving early and intensive active labour market policy, conducted in Denmark in 2008. The experiments entailed different combinations of early and intensive treatment in terms of meetings and active labour market programmes. The effects are remarkable; frequent meetings between newly...

We perform a comprehensive analysis of the stepping-stone effect of temporary agency employment on unemployed workers. Using the timing-of-events approach, we investigate not only whether agency employment is a bridge into regular employment but also its effect on post-unemployment wages and job stability for unemployed Danish workers. We find evid...

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries spend, on average, an equivalent of 0.4% of their gross domestic product on active and passive labor market policies. This is a non-negligible sum, especially in times of strained government budgets. Meetings with case workers—who can provide advice and information on what jobs to l...

We re-analyze the effects of a Danish active labor market programme social experiment, which included a range of sub-treatments, including meetings with caseworkers, job search assistance courses, and activation programmes. We use newly developed non-parametric methods to examine how the effects of the experimental treatment vary during the unemplo...

We consider the consequences of working part-time and receiving supplementary benefits for part-time unemployment in the Danish labor market. Following the timing-of-events approach we estimate causal effects of part-time work with supplementary benefits on the hazard rate out of unemployment insurance benefit receipt. We find evidence of a negativ...

We investigate whether agency employment is a bridge into regular employment for immigrants to Denmark using the timing-of-events approach. We provide evidence of large positive in-treatment effects, particularly for non-western immigrants and immigrants arriving during childhood. Post-treatment effects are fairly high for male non-western immigran...

We perform a comprehensive analysis of the stepping-stone effect of temporary agency employment on unemployed workers. Using the timing-of-events approach, we not only investigate whether agency employment is a bridge into regular employment but also analyze its effect on post-unemployment wages and job stability for unemployed Danish workers. We f...

Randomized experiments provide policy relevant treatment effects if there are no spillovers between participants and nonparticipants. We show that this assumption is violated for a Danish activation program for unemployed workers. Using a difference-in-difference model we show that the nonparticipants in the experiment regions find jobs slower afte...

Ved hjælp af danske registeroplysninger om arbejdsmarkedsforløb og køb af lægemidler mod psykiske sygdomme i perioden 1996 til 2003 har vi undersøgt hvordan medicinkrævende psykisk sygdom påvirker lediges tilbagevenden til job eller overgang til førtidspension. Resultaterne viser, at medicinkrævende psykisk sygdom sænker chancen for i en given måne...

We examine rational learning among expert chess players and how they update their beliefs in repeated games with the same opponent. We present a model that explains how equilibrium play is affected when players change their choice of strategy when receiving additional information from each encounter. We employ a large international panel dataset wi...

While job search theory predicts that active labour market policies (ALMPs) can affect post-unemployment outcomes, empirical evaluations investigating transition rates have mostly focused on the impact of ALMPs on exit rates from the current unemployment spell. We use a social experiment, which was conducted in Denmark in 2005-6, to investigate the...

We estimate the effect of active labour-market programmes on the exit rate to regular employment for non-western immigrants in Denmark who receive social assistance. We use the timing-of-events duration model and rich administrative data. We find large positive post-programme effects, and, surprisingly, even most in-programme effects are positive....

We re-analyze the effects of a Danish active labour market program social experiment that included a range of sub-treatments, including monitoring, job search assistance and training. Previous studies have shown that the overall effect of the experiment is positive. We apply newly developed non-parametric methods to determine which of the individua...

There is a large literature showing that unemployment has a negative effect on mental health, but little evidence exists on how mental illness affects the unemployeds’ chances of re-employment or the risk of labour market exit. We study how purchase of pharmaceutical products for severe mental illnesses during unemployment affects re- employment an...

. While job search theory predicts that active labour market poli-cies (ALMPs) can affect post-unemployment outcomes, empirical evaluations have mostly focused on the impact of ALMPs on exit rates from the current unemployment spell. We use a social experiment,consisting of intensive coun-seling and monitoring, early job search assistance, and earl...

When treatment effects of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) are heterogeneous in an observable way across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes particularly important. In this article, we present a statistical model that can be used to allocate unemployed into different ALMPs. The model presented i...

We estimate the effect of lowering income transfers to refugee immigrants in Denmark - labeled start-help - using a competing risk framework. Refugee immigrants obtaining residence permit before July 2002 received larger income transfers than those who obtained their residence permit later. Exploiting this 'quasi-natural' experiment, we find that t...

We analyse the effect of active labour-market programmes on the hazard rate into regular employment for newly arrived immigrants using the timing-of-events duration model. We take account of language course participation and progression in destination country language skills. We use rich administrative data from Denmark. We find substantial lock-in...

Refugees subjected to a spatial dispersal tend to be assigned to a location outside the immigrant-dense cities. We argue that such locations are associated with low place utility. Our partial equilibrium search model with simultaneous job and residential location search predicts that the reservation wage for local jobs decreases with place utility....

In this paper, we investigate the impact of classroom training programmes on individual unemployment rates in Denmark. In 1994 a social experiment was conducted, where unemployed applicants for labour market training were randomised into treatment and control groups. We formulate and estimate experimental impact estimators of the effect of treatmen...

This article compares and contrasts male immigrant labor market experiences in Sweden and Denmark during the period 1985 - 1995. Using register-based panel data sets from Sweden and Denmark, a picture of the employment assimilation process of immigrants from Norway, Poland, Turkey, and Iran is brought forth. The comparative approach shows that immi...

In this paper, we estimate the threat effect of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) for a sample of unemployed men in Denmark. Threat effects of such programmes capture the impacts of a system of ALMPs prior to actual participation. Rational economic agents make search decisions based on the expected discounted value of unemployment, and the pe...

We investigate the effects of meetings between the unemployed and their case workers on the transition rate from unemployment to employment using detailed Danish event history data obtained from administrative registers. We find large positive effects of meetings. The transition rate strongly increases in the week the meeting is held, and this effe...

We investigate the impact of home ownership on individual job mobility and wages in Denmark. We find that home ownership has a negative impact on job-to-job mobility both in terms of transition into new local jobs and new jobs outside the local labour market. In addition, there is a clear negative effect of home ownership on the unemployment risk a...

This paper uses a natural experiment approach to identify the effects of an exogenouschange in future pension benefits on workers’ training participation. We use uniquematched survey and administrative data for male employees in the Dutch public sectorwho were born in 1949 or 1950. Only the latter were subject to a major pension reformthat diminish...

When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present assignment mechanism, which is based on the discretio...

In Denmark and many other countries, Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs) are heavily used instruments to combat unemployment. Some types of ALMP are supposed to enhance general skills for the unemployed, while other programmes are of a more specific nature. And some programmes may even have the main purpose of being unpleasant and hence motivatin...

The importance of skill-shortage in Africa, combined with the extensive use of training, necessitates appropriate evaluation of training programs. By using firm data from Sub-Saharan Africa, we evaluate the effect of on-the-job training on log wages using matching estimators. We find that training tends to improve wages, and that the effect is larg...

This paper investigates the impact of globalization, in the sense of increasing international trade, on the demand for skills in Danish manufacturing companies. The study is based on a unique data set that enables us to develop rich measures of international outsourcing and import penetration. Moreover, the data also allows several strategies to st...

The aim of this paper is to analyse the role of unobserved heterogeneity in structural discrete choice models of labour supply for the evaluation of tax-reforms. Within this framework, unobserved heterogeneity has been estimated either parametrically or nonparametrically through random co- efficient models. Nevertheless, the estimation of such mode...

This paper uses a natural experiment approach to identify the effects of an exogenouschange in future pension benefits on workers’ training participation. We use uniquematched survey and administrative data for male employees in the Dutch public sectorwho were born in 1949 or 1950. Only the latter were subject to a major pension reformthat diminish...

This article investigates the effects of homeownership on labour mobility and unemployment duration. We distinguish between finding employment locally or being geographically mobile. We find that homeownership hampers the propensity to move for job reasons, but improves the chances of finding local jobs, which is in accordance with the predictions...

This paper tests the signalling hypothesis using detailed flow-based employer-employee data from Denmark. The primary focus is to explore how the conditions in the pre-displacement firm affect the duration of unemployment. The empirical analysis is conducted within a competing risk framework, with destinations into reemployment and inactivity, whic...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse if introduction of new technologies and work practices are negatively related to the employment opportunities of immigrants. Design/methodology/approach – A representative plant-level panel survey merged with register data is used. Random effect regression Tobit models are estimated. The dependent...

This article compares and contrasts male immigrant labor market experiences in Sweden and Denmark during the period 1985–1995. Using register-based panel data sets from Sweden and Denmark, a picture of the employment assimilation process of immigrants from Norway, Poland, and Turkey is presented. The comparative approach shows that immigrants in Sw...

We investigate the impact of home ownership on individual job mobility and wages in Denmark. We find that home ownership has a negative impact on job-to-job mobility both in terms of transition into new local jobs and new jobs outside the local labor market. In addition, there is a clear negative effect of home ownership on the unemployment risk an...

Do dispersal policies on refugee immigrants promote their labour market outcomes? To investigate this we estimate the effects of location characteristics and the average effect of geographical mobility on the hazard rate into first job of refugee immigrants subjected to the Danish Dispersal Policy 1986-1998. We correct for selection into reloc...

As a consequence of the rapid growth of temporary agency employment in Germany, the debate on the remuneration of temporary agency workers has intensified recently. The study finds that the earnings gap of temporary help workers in Germany is indeed large and increased during the past decade. Decomposition reveals that the widening gap mainly is dr...

Discouragement is a process occurring during an unemployment spell. As the spell prolongs, an individual gradually realises that the returns to search can no longer outweigh search costs, and hence she may eventually leave the labour force. This is analysed theoretically in a framework of unemployed search. We construct a search model, which is sta...

This paper analyses labour market outcomes of temporary workers in Europe. First, investigating if the labour market is segmented into heterogeneous clusters. Second, identifying the characteristics that are most likely to affect the contract types hold by workers Third, focusing on exits from temporary employment in some European countries with di...

In the United States, religious attendance rises sharply with education across individuals, but religious attendance declines sharply with education across denominations. This puzzle is explained if education both increases the returns to social connection and reduces the extent of religious belief, and if beliefs are closely linked to denomination...

About this series... This series is produced by the Health, Nutrition, and Population Family (HNP) of the World Bank's Human Development Network. The papers in this series aim to provide a vehicle for publishing preliminary and unpolished results on HNP topics to encourage discussion and debate. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expres...

In this paper, we analyze immigrant wage gaps and propose an extension of the traditional wage decomposition technique, which is a synthesis from two strains of literature on ethnic/immigrant wage differences, namely the ‘assimilation literature’ and the ‘discrimination literature’. We estimate separate wage equations for natives and a number of im...

In this paper, we extend a job search-matching model with firm-specific investments in training, originally developed by Mortensen (Equilibrium Unemployment with Wage Posting: Burdett–Mortensen Meet Pissarides. In: Bunzel et al. (Eds.), Panel Data and Structural Labour Market Models, Amsterdam, North-Holland, 281–292), to allow for different offer...

The combination of unemployment benefits, high taxes on labour income, social contributions and conditional transfers such as additional child benefits, may reduce the willingness of unemployed workers — especially the low skilled — to find and/or to accept a job (OECD, 1996, 1999). Low returns associated with being employed rather than unemployed...

The paper identifies key labor market and institutional differences between developed and developing countries, analyzes how these differences affect the working of the standard, OECD-style unemployment insurance (UI) program, and derives a desirable design of unemployment benefit program in developing countries. It argues that these countries – fa...

Evidence shows that real-effort investments can affect bilateral bargaining outcomes. This paper investigates whether similar investments can inhibit equilibrium convergence of experimental markets. In one treatment, sellers’ relative effort affects the allocation of production costs, but a random productivity shock ensures that the allocation is n...

This paper formulates a partial search model in which unemployed individuals simultaneously search for job and location of residence. Most importantly, we show that, ceteris paribus, a decrease in current place utility increases the transition rate into a new location of residence and the transition rate into employment outside the local labour mar...

How do dispersal policies affect labour market integration of refugee immigrants subjected to such policy? To investigate this, we estimate the effects of location characteristics and the average effect of geographical mobility on the hazard rate into first job of refugee immigrants subjected to the Danish Dispersal Policy 1986-1998. We correct for...

2 nd generation immigrants from less developed countries have less education and a lower employment frequency compared to the native Danish youth. We analyse the school-to-work transition of these groups using panel data for the years 1985–1997. The educational gap between 2 nd generation immigrants and the Danish youth is to some extent explained...

This paper analyses the drop-out and graduation behaviour of young 1st generation immigrants enrolled in a qualifying education in the period 1984-1999. The descriptive analyses show that the low educational achievements among young immigrants compared to young ethnic Danes found in other studies are a combination of low enrolment rates and high dr...

The paper analyzes the way immigrants and natives evaluate the competency of the government and opposition in handling the economy. We consider a case where the two groups have the same ethnic background, but where the immigrants come from a communist system to a western market system. The data cover East European Jews immigrating to Israel in comp...

In the United States, religious attendance rises sharply with education across individuals, but religious attendance declines sharply with education across denominations. This puzzle is explained if education both increases the returns to social connection and reduces the extent of religious belief, and if beliefs are closely linked to denomination...