Michael Noble

• Southern African Researcg Insights

Indonesia is among the countries with the highest exposure to natural disasters, and risks are expected to increase due to climate change. Natural disasters and other shocks require well‐developed social protection systems that can cushion the economic consequences for those most vulnerable to these events. International stakeholders advocate for ‘...

This report is the outcome of a modelling exercise carried out by an expert panel for the ILO. This involved follow-up work to an initial review and modelling exercise which can be found at https://www.dsd.gov.za/index.php/documents/category/58-basic-income-support.

The report is available for download at: https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/southmod-country-report-mozambique-mozmod-v29 And click here for details about how to access the model: https://www.wider.unu.edu/about/mozmod-%E2%80%93-simulating-tax-and-benefit-policies-development-mozambique

Since the dawn of colonialism in Southern Africa, the province of the Eastern Cape emerged as the cradle of African resistance against colonial oppression. A closer look at the province reveals opportunities for progress and ultimate resurgence of economic and social development, yet conflated by a myriad of challenges. This book brings together di...

Since the dawn of colonialism in Southern Africa, the province of the Eastern Cape emerged as the cradle of African resistance against colonial oppression. A closer look at the province reveals opportunities for progress and ultimate resurgence of economic and social development, yet conflated by a myriad of challenges. This book brings together di...

Purpose: The paper aims to assess the effects of taxes and benefits on inequality and poverty in five African countries: Ghana, Mozambique, South Africa, Uganda and Zambia. Design/methodology/approach: The authors use newly developed micro-simulation models to analyse the distribution and composition of incomes. Findings: The study's results sugg...

In this paper we explore South Africa’s personal income tax system using two microsimulation models. The first, SAMOD, simulates personal income tax and social benefits using a dataset derived from the nationally representative National Income Dynamics Study survey. The second, PITMOD, simulates the personal income tax system and is underpinned by...

Capturing the dynamics of population change in urban areas necessitates access to geographically fine‐grained and temporally consistent data for several time points. Such data are generally not available and they must be created using standard population data which cannot usually be compared across time periods. In this paper, the focus is on chang...

This paper explores the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa on income poverty and inequality in South Africa. Using a static tax–benefit microsimulation model with input datasets that were adjusted to reflect people’s earned incomes just before the pandemic (March 2020) and during the first national lockdown (April 202...

https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/cempa/cempa2-21

African Social Policy Research Insights (SASPRI) in which tax-benefit microsimulation models for selected developing countries are being built. These models enable researchers and policy analysts to calculate, in a comparable manner, the effects of taxes and benefits on household incomes and work incentives for the population of each country. SOUTH...

This paper explores the distributional impact of lowering the value-added tax rate for standard-rated items in Tanzania Mainland. Using a static tax-benefit microsimulation model—TAZMOD—which is underpinned by data derived from the Household Budget Survey 2017/18, reductions in value-added taxes from 18 per cent to 17 per cent and 16 per cent are s...

Using SAMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model for South Africa, this paper examines the joint distributional impact of the increase in the value-added tax (VAT) rate and increases in benefit amounts in 2018. Although poverty and inequality did not increase overall, the poorest still saw a reduction in their purchasing power, as many of those in...

Using SAMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model for South Africa, this paper examines the joint distributional impact of the increase in the value-added tax (VAT) rate and increases in benefit amounts in 2018. Although poverty and inequality did not increase overall, the poorest still saw a reduction in their purchasing power, as many of those in...

Available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019-research-report

Available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019-technical-report

This paper assesses the effects of public policies on income taxes and benefits in six African countries. The comparative analysis focuses on the distribution and composition of incomes and assesses the effect of these policies on inequality and poverty. The results are based on newly developed microsimulation models for Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique...

In this paper we explore the income data in two surveys that underpin a South African tax-benefit microsimulation model. The simulated taxes and benefits using each dataset are compared with each other and with administrative data for a common time point. We explore discrepancies between the simulated and administrative data on personal income tax,...

In this paper a working definition of lone motherhood in the South African context is presented. Whilst rejecting any assumption that lone motherhood is necessarily experienced as an identity, it is argued that the category of lone motherhood has analytical value as it exposes the circumstances faced by women who care for children without a partner...

It is well documented that South Africa has high levels of poverty, deprivation and income inequality and, additionally, high levels of violent crime and social unrest. Debates about the drivers of social problems such as violent crime have shifted internationally and locally from a focus on poverty to a focus on inequality. However, there is very...

Many women interact with the South African social security system in relation to the Child Support Grant (CSG), which is social assistance payable for children living with low-income caregivers. This paper explores women's accounts of how the CSG serves to protect and respect dignity, a foundational value in the South African Constitution. Drawing...

ISBN: 978-1-4098-4690-1 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/464597/English_Indices_of_Deprivation_2015_-_Research_Report.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/464485/English_Indices_of_Deprivation_2015_-_Technical-Report.pdf ISBN: 978-1-4098-4689-5

This paper presents a spatial analysis of multiple deprivation in South Africa and demonstrates that the most deprived areas in the country are located in the rural former homeland areas. The analysis is undertaken using the datazone level South African Index of Multiple Deprivation which was constructed from the 2001 Census. Datazones are a new st...

This paper explores which items people living in South African informal urban settlements regard as essential for an acceptable standard of living, in the context of the high levels of service delivery protests in urban areas. Comparisons are made with people in rural former homeland areas which are shown to have similar levels of deprivation and s...

The socially perceived necessities or ‘consensual’ approach to defining and measuring poverty is based on an assumption that it is possible to obtain a collective view from society on the necessities for an acceptable standard of living. The enforced lack of the necessities due – typically – to lack of resources can be regarded as poverty. The vali...

Research was commissioned to use individual level data from the Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS) to try to shed light on some unanswered questions about the dynamics of worklessness in deprived areas. It has been suggested that in certain deprived neighbourhoods individuals make the transition from worklessness into employment and move a...

Despite the absence of an unemployment grant in South Africa, there is growing concern that other social assistance provision might nevertheless weaken work motivation and create a ‘dependency culture’. This study explores attitudes about the relationship between grant receipt and paid employment in South Africa. Using both quantitative and qualita...

This paper presents the Provincial Indices of Multiple Deprivation that were constructed by the authors at ward level using 2001 Census data for each of South Africa’s nine provinces. The principles adopted in conceptualising the indices are described and multiple deprivation is defined as a weighted combination of discrete dimensions of deprivatio...

The New Deal for Communities (NDC) programme was designed to bridge the gap in living standards between 39 of the most deprived neighbourhoods in England and the rest of the country. This article assesses whether the NDC programme has affected the likelihood that recipients of worklessness benefits, like the Job Seeker's Allowance (JSA) or Incapaci...

The South African state awards unconditional means-tested cash transfers to the caregivers of some eight million poor children. Amidst increasing demands on the state for social assistance, the question has been asked: should the Child Support Grant (CSG) be made conditional on education or health related behaviour to enhance its effectiveness? Iss...

Calls for a comprehensive income security policy are common in South Africa, frequently in the form of a basic income grant. These arguments tend to draw on two broad sets of literature that, although arguing to the same ends, are not usually combined or interrelated. First, there are analyses setting out the social and economic benefits of such a...

This article describes the methodology employed to create an index of multiple deprivation for children in South Africa at small-area level and presents the picture of deprivation across the country exposed by the index. Making use of information from the 2001 Census, 14 child-focused indicators were arranged into five domains of deprivation—income...

The New Deal for Communities (NDC) programme was designed to bridge the gap in living standards between 39 of the most deprived neighbourhoods in England and the rest of the country. This article assesses whether the NDC programme has affected the likelihood that recipients of worklessness benefits, like the Job Seeker's Allowance (JSA) or Incapaci...

Recent legislation, requires local authorities to provide services such as day care for children in need. New computer techniques for geo-spatial analysis—Geographical Information Systems—ore now muck used by local authorities in planning environmental and engineering services. This article explores the extent to which these techniques can be appli...

Private Sector Participation (PSP) has recently become common in the water supply (WS) sector. There is a belief that the private sector is better placed to mobilize capital and ensure stronger political autonomy and operational efficiency of a water utility. In case of the South Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia), water is often a limiting...

The democratic approach to defining poverty is set in its theoretical context. The relevance of the approach for South Africa is discussed, and a definition is presented which emerges from quantitative research undertaken in South Africa in 2005. Various issues are considered in relation to the South African case, in particular the extent and natur...

This paper presents a new method of measuring child poverty in South Africa, based on a theoretically sound distinction between the conceptualization, definition, measurement, and enumeration of poverty. Conceptual frameworks, definitions, and measurements of poverty are briefly reviewed in the international and South African contexts. This paper p...

Indices to measure deprivation at a small-area level have been used in the United Kingdom to target regeneration policy for over thirty years. The development of the Indices of Deprivation 2000 for England and comparable indices for Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland, involved a fundamental reappraisal and reconceptualisation of small-area level...

Anecdote is the singular of data Danny Dorling Do we care about area effects? George Smith, Michael Noble, Gemma Wright Evidence-based policy and practice Roger Burrows, Jonathan Bradshaw Is there a place for area-based initiatives? Heather Joshi On reinvented wheels Charles Pattie Multilevel modeling might not be the answer Richard Mitchell Unempl...

This article demonstrates how benefit dependent households can be identified at small area levels in rural areas. Current debates about the nature and extent of rural poverty are outlined. We then explain how municipal administrative data can be mapped at different spatial levels - Enumeration District and 500 metre grid squares. Such data at small...

This article briefly reviews American and British literature on welfare dynamics and examines the concepts of welfare dependency and with particular reference to lone parents. Using UK benefit data sets, the welfare dynamics of lone mothers are examined to explore the extent to which they inform the debates. Evidence from Housing Benefits data show...

This article examines the spread of Disability Living Allowance across a group of low income households in an industrial town in North West England from the introduction of the new benefits in 1992 until the Spring of 1996. We focus on the changes over time of the incidence of Disability Living Allowance in the low income population and look at the...

Lone mothers’ movements on and off Income Support and Family Credit were explored over a four-year period (1993-1997). In addition to studying the primary reason for such movements, the researchers investigated lone mothers’ attitudes to and experience of work. There was considerable movement on and off Income Support, with many lone mothers claimi...

Key objectives in the 1992 reform of disability benefits were improvements to the scope of benefits and better targeting of funds to those most in need. This paper questions the success of the disability living allowance (DLA) in achieving these aims. Examination of (non-)recipients of the higher rate mobility component of DLA reveals considerable...

This article briefly reviews the development of area measures of deprivation. It examines the construction of indices of deprivation and the uses to which such indices are put, particularly in respect of resource allocation. Previous attempts to develop indices have been based on a priori definitions of deprivation (eg the Department of the Environ...

The New Deal for Communities (NDC) Programme is designed to bridge the gap in living standards between 39 of the most deprived neighbourhoods in England and the rest of the country. Each of these 39 NDC neighbourhoods has organised Partnerships in order to identify local priorities, set appropriate targets, and implement suitable initiatives. This...

This paper provides details of the second phase of consultation on ward level population estimates for use as denominators for the Index of Local Deprivation. The deadline for comments on the population estimates is FRIDAY 15 OCTOBER.