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Michael Calvin MacCracken

Michael Calvin MacCracken
Climate Institute

B.S. Engineering, Princeton Univ, 1964; Ph.D. Univ of California Davis, 1968

About

204
Publications
17,409
Reads
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2,738
Citations
Additional affiliations
October 2002 - present
Climate Institute
Position
  • Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs
Description
  • The Climate Institute aims to catalyze innovative approaches for addressing climate change; promote partnerships among policymakers, scientists, the public and environmental institutions; and provide objective information on risks and potential responses.
September 1997 - September 2002
Office of the U.S. Global Change Research Program
Position
  • Managing Director
Description
  • Facilitated preparation of the first national assessment of the impacts of climate variability and change on the United States
August 1993 - August 1997
Office of the US Global Change Research Program
Position
  • Managing Director

Publications

Publications (204)
Preprint
Full-text available
Over the years, scientists have established that when fossil fuels are burnt, the resultant effect is pollution of the ambient air with pollutants such as carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH 4 ), oxides of nitrogen (NO X ), oxides of sulfur (SO X ), volatile organic hydrocarbons and particulate matter and atmospheric greenhouse gases such as carbon d...
Article
The long atmospheric residence time of CO 2 creates an urgent need to add atmospheric carbon drawdown to CO 2 regulatory strategies. Synthetic and systems biology (SSB), which enables manipulation of cellular phenotypes, offers a powerful approach to amplifying and adding new possibilities to current land management practices aimed at reducing atmo...
Article
Full-text available
The International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS) was founded in 1919 as the Section of Meteorology of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG). Significant advances over human history, particularly during the 19th century, in the gathering, communication, assembly and analysis of observations of the chan...
Article
Full-text available
The International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS) was founded in 1919 as the Section of Meteorology of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG). Significant advances over human history, particularly during the 19th century, in the gathering, communication, assembly and analysis of observations of the chan...
Article
Full-text available
Ten years ago, Paul Crutzen asked whether the time had come to consider undertaking research into intentionally intervening in the climate system so that it might be considered a policy option comparable to reducing emissions for limiting human-induced climate change. Crutzen's article pointed out how little progress had been made in reducing emiss...
Article
Full-text available
We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topi...
Article
Full-text available
We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, incl...
Article
Full-text available
This scientific assessment examines changes in three climate extremes (extratropical storms, winds, and waves), with an emphasis on U.S. coastal regions during the cold season. There is moderate evidence of an increase in both extratropical storm frequency and intensity during the cold season in the Northern Hemisphere since 1950, with suggestive e...
Article
Full-text available
With human-induced climate change leading to amplified warming in high latitudes, mitigation alone is unlikely to be rapid enough to prevent significant, even irreversible, impacts. Model simulations in which solar insolation was arbitrarily reduced poleward of 51, 61, or 71° latitude in one or both hemispheres not only cooled those regions, but al...
Article
Full-text available
With human-induced climate change leading to amplified warming in high latitudes, mitigation alone is unlikely to be rapid enough to prevent significant, even irreversible, impacts. Model simulations in which solar insolation was arbitrarily reduced poleward of 51, 61, or 71 latitude in one or both hemispheres not only cooled those regions, but als...
Article
Full-text available
The increasing concentrations of greenhouse gas concentrations are causing amplified warming in polar regions, with associated retreat of sea ice and snow cover, permafrost, mountain glaciers, and ice sheets. Not only are these changes adversely affecting the polar regions, but a number of the changes are also affecting mid-latitude weather, sea le...
Article
Full-text available
Ken Caldeira and David W Keith in their study entitled 'The Need for Climate Engineering Research', issued a call for geoengineering research, aimed at reducing emissions of greenhouse gases that cause global warming. Their call for a solar radiation management research program includes three phases such as computer and laboratory research, small-s...
Chapter
Short-lived greenhouse gases that also contribute to air pollution are playing a major role in global warming. Black carbon alone is likely the second or third most important climate forcing agent. The short atmospheric lifetime of these pollutants means that, unlike CO2, reducing emissions produces a decrease in atmospheric concentration and a red...
Chapter
This book describes China's contribution to global warming and analyzes its policy responses, examining China's practical and ethical responsibility from a variety of perspectives.
Chapter
Even though the reality of climate change is becoming more and more apparent, international actions to slow its accelerating pace seem to moving more and more slowly. As a consequence, on local to global scales, society, its managed systems, and the natural environment are going to face larger and more rapid changes in climate and the availability...
Article
Ongoing anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are creating long-lasting changes in atmospheric composition, and these changes are altering the long-term energy balance of the planet. Thus, it is said that the climate is changing: the decadal-average temperatures of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface are increasi...
Article
Full-text available
With significant reductions in emissions likely to require decades and the impacts of projected climate change likely to become more and more severe, proposals for taking deliberate action to counterbalance global warming have been proposed as an important complement to reducing emissions. While a number of geoengineering approaches have been propo...
Article
Full-text available
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to suggest an approach to post-Kyoto climate negotiations that could provide a way out of the apparent deadlock between developed and developing countries. This is an urgent issue as the world already appears to be close to a level of climate change that could be considered "dangerous". Design/methodology/appr...
Article
Full-text available
Semi-enclosed marine systems (SEMSs) are impacted on time scales ranging from the very short (days or less) to the very long (decades and beyond) by many of the same forces and stresses as other components of the Earth system. Like the open ocean, SEMSs are linked to large-scale anthropogenic disturbances through climate change, acidification from...
Article
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This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
Article
Full-text available
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
Article
Full-text available
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
Article
Full-text available
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
Article
Full-text available
As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are increasing at a rate of ~0.2°C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emissions controls are not put in place. Such warming and the associated changes are likely to cause severe impacts to key societal and environmental s...
Article
Full-text available
Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas and, to a lesser extent, deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The resulting warming of about 0.1 to 0.2°C per decade that has taken place over the last several decades is very...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents a discussion of the 2008 A&WMA Critical Review (see Coal Abstracts Oct 2008 00143) by invited panellists and others who chose to comment. It includes written submissions and presentation of transcripts that were, in a few instances, edited for conciseness, to minimize redundancy, and to provide supporting and instructional citat...
Conference Paper
While rapidly reducing emissions of greenhouse gases is the most obvious approach to reducing the deleterious consequences of the accelerating pace and nature of global climate change, doing so will require a near total shift away from carbon-emitting fuels over the rest of the 21st century. That climate change can be inadvertently induced by human...
Article
Full-text available
Never before in human history has the global community collectively faced an environmental issue as complex as climate change. Left unchecked, the rapidly growing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are projected to change the world we live in to one that is likely to have longer and more severe droughts and water shortages, more intense stor...
Article
Full-text available
Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The warming of approximately 0.1-0.2 degrees C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of th...
Article
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been conducting assessments of the effects of human activities on climate, the resultant impacts on the environment and society, and options for slowing and stopping climate change. The most important findings state that emissions from human activities are changing the atmospheric composition...
Chapter
The Earth’s atmosphere, ocean and land surface interact together to provide the environmental conditions to which life and society have become accustomed. Society has come to depend on these components working together to provide relatively stable (or at least regularly varying) and livable conditions that are conducive to growing and gathering nec...
Article
The peculiar features of the climate change problem pose substantial obstacles to our ability to make the hard choices necessary to address it. Climate change involves the convergence of a set of global, intergenerational and theoretical problems. This convergence justifies calling it a 'perfect moral storm'. One consequence of this storm is that,...
Article
For the past two hundred years, the inadvertent release of carbon dioxide and other radiatively active gases and aerosols, particularly as a result of combustion of fossil fuels and changes in land cover, have been contributing to global climate change. Global warming to date is approaching 1°C, and this is being accompanied by reduced sea ice, ris...
Article
Nature is the international weekly journal of science: a magazine style journal that publishes full-length research papers in all disciplines of science, as well as News and Views, reviews, news, features, commentaries, web focuses and more, covering all branches of science and how science impacts upon all aspects of society and life.
Article
Full-text available
At the beginning of the twentieth century, the prospect of ``global warming'' as a result of human activities was thought to be far off, and in any case, likely to be beneficial. As we begin the twenty-first century, science adviser to the British government, Sir David King, has said that he considers global warming to be the world's most important...
Article
Full-text available
In support of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, climate scenarios were prepared to serve as the basis for evaluating the vulnerability of environmental and societal systems to changes projected for the twenty-first century. Since publication of the results of the assessment at the end of 2...
Article
Full-text available
Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for i...
Article
In assessing the value of the information for policymakers, the adequacy of what has been done is likely to depend very much on the potential uses for the results. As long as emissions continue on their upward curve, it seems to me that the IPCC results serve quite adequately as plausible futures for considering broad-scale issues of potential cons...
Article
Fossil fuels (i.e., coal, oil, and natural gas) provide about 85% of the world's energy, sustaining our standard-of-living. They are inexpensive, transportable, safe, and relatively abundant. At the same time, their use contributes to problems such as air quality and acid rain that are being addressed through various control efforts and to the prob...
Article
Full-text available
The first U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGCRP was established th rough the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101 -606) and ma ndated through the statute with the resp...
Article
Full-text available
Impacts of comets and small ( ∼ 10 km) asteroids with Earth—frequent events over geologic time—would generate atmospheric dust in amounts orders of magnitude greater than historically large volcanic explosions. Three-dimensional atmospheric model simulations show that climatic effects of such impacts would include drastic cooling of land surfaces d...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
p 21-28, American Meteorological Society
Conference Paper
We are developing (1) a seasonal model of terrestrial productivity and biogeochemical cycling (TERRA) and (2) a model of vegetation response to climate (HABITAT). Both of these models are designed to be components of an Earth System Model being developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). We have implemented the grid-cell model of TE...
Article
This report describes research programs from Lawrence Livermore Laboratory from 1990--1991 in atmospheric chemistry and geophysics. Programs such as mathematical modeling of atmospheric dispersions of pollutants and radionuclides,tropospheric chemistry, clouds, climate models, and the effects of atmospheric trace constiuents on ozone are described.
Article
Full-text available
Periods of the past that are estimated to have been warmer than present are of great potential interest for comparison with simulations of future climates associated with greenhouse-gas-induced warming. Certain features of the climates of the mid-Holocene and Eemian periods, both interglacial maxima, are described. The simulated climatic responses...
Conference Paper
Improved methods for predicting the world's future climate and the potential climate change caused by anthropogenic activities are needed to guide domestic and international energy policy formulation. Current general circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere and ocean that form the basis for climate projections are useful, but lack treatment of i...
Conference Paper
CHAMMP is an integral part of the ESD climate modeling program and its objectives are highly complementary to the modeling activities being conducted as part of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison. CHAMMP is also closely linked to the US Global Change Research Program, especially through its interactions with the major clima...
Article
Michael MacCracken responds to Sherwood Idso's optimistic views of the impacts of human activity on the fate of the planet. ‘Carbon dioxide and the fate of Earth’ by Sherwood Idso was published in the June issue of Global Environmental Change, pp 178–182.
Article
Full-text available
Equilibrium simulations using the best-available general circulation models to estimate the sensitivity of the climate to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are in broad general agreement that the global annual average surface air temperature would increase 2.5 to 4.5 K. However, at finer spatial scales, the range of changes...
Article
The increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other radiatively active gases will enhance the ability of the atmosphere to trap infrared radiation and thereby lead to warming of the climate. Numerical models suggest that the global average surface air temperature can be expected to increase a few degrees during the twenty-first ce...
Article
This document is published monthly by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) to report on progress for the several programs currently being conducted. Specific articles are: atmospheric and geophysical sciences at LLNL; growth of ARAC to meet demand; Mesoscale monitoring, determining the effects of topography on atmospheric flaws; modeling...
Conference Paper
The complexity of the climate system and the absence of definitive analogs to the evolving climatic situation force use of theoretical models to project the future climatic influence of the relatively rapid and on-going increase in the atmospheric concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other trace gases. The most comprehensive of the available climate mod...
Book
Starting with the US-USSR Agreement on Protection of the Environment signed in 1972, the two nations have cooperated in joint research on atmospheric and environmental problems. The result of these efforts has been an innovative approach to projecting future climate change based on what has been learned about past warm periods and what can be learn...
Article
Full-text available
This book is about energy and climate change. It is a synopsis of the chemical, climatic, and environmental effects of continuing emissions of carbon dioxide and other radiatively and chemically active trace gases. This work includes energy scenarios, cost and risk analyses, energy emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate effects, as well as what...
Article
Full-text available
The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O, chlorofluorocarbons, and other gases capable of trapping terrestrial infrared radiation have risen markedly since preindustrial times. Theoretical and numerical analyses agree that these changes will cause a warming of the global average temperature by perhaps 1.5 to 4.5 °C during the 21st century, w...
Article
Substantial environmental disruption will significantly add to the disastrous consequences caused by the direct thermal, blast, and radiological effects brought on by a major nuclear war. Local fallout could cover several per cent of the Northern Hemisphere with potentially lethal doses. Smoke from post‐nuclear fires could darken the skies and indu...
Conference Paper
The continuing emissions of gases that are able to increase the efficiency with which the atmosphere traps infrared radiation are beginning to alter the global climate. During the next century, theoretical simulations project that global average temperatures will rise by several degrees Celsius above their pre-industrial baseline and that precipita...
Article
A tropospheric general circulation model is coupled with a Lagrangian trace species transport and removal model to determine the climatic response to continental-scale smoke injections arising from fires generated following a hypothetical nuclear war. The hydrological response is found to be particularly sensitive, with significant reductions in pr...
Article
A Lagrangian model has been developed to treat the global-scale transport, transformation, and removal of trace species in the atmosphere. The model uses prescribed velocity fields (either from observations or from Eulerian dynamical models) to advect constant-mass parcels of air. These constant-mass air parcels can contain varying amounts of aeros...
Article
Close examination of the analyses and model studies on which these sea level projections are based suggests that a eustatic sea level rise is likely, but that the magnitudes of these estimates, which amount to an acceleration in the average rate of sea level rise by about a factor of ten, are highly uncertain. -Authors
Conference Paper
During the last several years, comprehensive three-dimensional atmospheric circulation models, including detailed parametric formulations of a wide range of climatologically significant processes, have been applied to study the potential consequences of a major nuclear war involving the injection of smoke which could result from the large-scale fir...
Article
Computer-model projections indicate that the climatic response to changing atmospheric composition will lead to warmer temperatures, with shifting precipitation patterns, rising sea level, and retreating snow cover being among the more prominent changes. This proposal examines this environmental issue on behalf of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Valleys...
Article
The global nature of the problem of inadvertent climate change makes it imperative that research be conducted on an international basis. The authors bilateral efforts have proven highly productive in advancing understanding of the problem. Vigorous efforts to integrate the atmospheric, hydrospheric, lithospheric, and biological sciences into the ne...
Article
Theoretical projections suggest that the global average temperature will rise and other climatic characteristics will shift as a result of the increasing COâ and trace gas concentrations. There are important uncertainties, however, regarding the amount and spatial distribution of the changes and the rate at which they will occur. Improving computer...