Michael L. Lahr

• PhD, University of Pennsylvania, Regional Science
• Distinguished Research Professor at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey

Regions and industries are not isolated islands; so, when evaluating productivity growth, regional and sectoral growth paths should not be expected to generate independently. Moreover, accounting for spatial interactions via econometric models has become normal practice; but modelling interindustry dependencies has not. Thus, we expand labour produ...

A basic underlying assumption in most of the research to date is that intermediate industry accounts of the economies in multiregional input-output (MRIO) tables exist and are accurate. In fact, if they exist at the subnational level, such accounts are, at best, roughly estimated and predicated on far less empirical information than is available fo...

Since the 1970s, Brazil has carried out the most successful world program of commercial biomass for use and production of energy by stimulating its sugarcane industry and promoting the large-scale production of ethanol nationwide in response to the first oil shock. Today, the technologies behind ethanol production are well established. Brazil is th...

Using the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) 2014–2018, we examine whether the household responsibility hypothesis (HRH) remains in the United States, using commuting times. After dividing couple households into subgroups by relative income level and educational level, we find that couple members in a higher income quartile tend to spend more time...

As China urbanized and its economy grew rapidly, its food production and consumption patterns changed dramatically over the past three decades. With this in mind, we evaluate how the nation's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to food production and consumption altered from 1987 to 2017. We further explore key factors that affect GHG emission c...

Production processes depend on fragmented and interdependent value chains; nowadays, a single product often includes components produced in dozens of countries. Many public health measures being implemented to prevent the spread of COVID-19 have dampened economic activity of ‘non-essential’ sectors. The decreased production affects other industries...

Some research methods come and go, and others persist through time. Despite lack of apparent theory supporting shift-share analysis, we find that it is still alive and well – in fact it is perhaps in greater use now than ever before. This chapter takes the reader on a reconnaissance of several themes in the extant literature on shift-share. We star...

This paper is a broad expansion of an SRSA Research Fellows Address presented in Roslyn, Virginia on April 16th, 2019. In it, I extol the virtues of poverty research, particularly that focused on the U.S. where households living on less than $4/day/person compose the largest shares of county populations. I note that two factors that are the hallmar...

The lack of subnational trade data has dampened the development of reliable regional and multiregional models for regional policy development. So, most researchers and vendors of regional and interregional economic models continue to rely on location quotients, supply‐demand pool techniques, or minor modifications of them, despite knowing that they...

Some research methods come and go, and others persist through time. Despite lack of apparent theory supporting shift-share analysis, we find that it is still alive and well – in fact it is perhaps in greater use now than ever before. This chapter takes the reader on a reconnaissance of several themes in the extant literature on shift-share. We star...

Migrant remittances are important to some countries. According to the World Bank, they comprise more than 30% of the GDP of Kyrgyzstan, Tonga, Tajikistan, Haiti and Nepal. Compared to official development aid or foreign direct investment, remittances have lately become a prime income stream for less-developed nations. In this paper, we analyze the...

At times, certain areas of China suffering from water shortages. While China's government is spurring innovation and infrastructure to help head off such problems, it may be that some water conservation could help as well. It is well-known that water is embodied in traded goods-so called "virtual water trade" (VWT). In China, it seems that many wat...

Using three official multiregional input–output tables and carbon emission data, we decompose the change in carbon emission for eight regions of China between 1997 and 2007. We do so according to the following seven partial effects: (i) Changes in energy end-use structure, (ii) effect of energy intensity, (iii) the added value’s share of gross outp...

At the urban scale, tourism activities can compete for spaces formerly used by housing and rendering opposing structured economic consequences. As tourism can generate jobs, there is the idea among urban residents that they can become victim of tourism increase. In this work, we apply a multiregional input–output model to assess the economic impact...

When working with economic accounts it may occur that multiple estimates of a single datum exist, with different degrees of uncertainty or data quality. This paper addresses the problem of defining a method that can reconcile conflicting estimates, given best guess and uncertainty values. We proceeded from first principles, using two different rout...

As China’s economy enters the “new normal” phase, its growth model has gradually changed to focus more on domestic consumption. In this paper, we examine regional disparities in households’ total (direct and indirect) energy use in China from 2002 to 2012. Using a structural decomposition approach, we examine how changes in China’s technology, econ...

Structured Abstract Purpose This paper aims to offer an insight into the fundamental changes taking place in Port wine production value chains. Specifically, we examine two distinct production regimes: when Port is aged and sold in the Greater Oporto and, alternatively, when it is produced, aged and sold in Douro. Design/methodology/approach The au...

This paper focuses on a proposed development corridor in Egypt, a main component of which is a desert-based expansion of the current highway network. The main beneficial features of this proposed transport investment are travel time reductions and improved accessibility. We use a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model to estimate the e...

An oft-forgotten feature of input-output models (IO models) is the inherent incompleteness and inaccuracy of the underlying survey data that are used to build them. Many different techniques have been applied to resolve these data issues. Here we introduce an approach based on the fuzzy set theory. To do so, we articulate the lack of reliability of...

Intuitively, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) demonstrates strong similarities to shift-share analysis (SSA). Both examine the effects of industry shifts due to growth (or decline) and some sort of difference in industry shares. But SSA works its shares across space while SDA works its shares again across industries via technology change (fa...

This paper uses an optimal interregional input-output model to focus on how interregional industrial shifts alone might enable China to reduce carbon intensity instead of national shifts. The optimal industry shifts assure integration of all regions by regional products and goods in which carbon emissions are embodied via energy consumption. Genera...

We develop an interregional computable general equilibrium model to help assess the ex ante impact of transportation infrastructure policies in Egypt. The model is integrated with a GIS network. We illustrate the analytical capabilities of the model by looking at the domestic integration of the country. Improvements of transportation costs among Eg...

Theoretically speaking, heavy tax rates on gambling should dampen growth of the casino revenues. Indeed, a cursory glance at data across U . S . states suggests that more jobs and income are generated directly by the gaming industry when lower tax rates are applied. Using a detailed computable general equilibrium model, we evaluate the effects of a...

This paper presents an input–output based methodology – structural decomposition analysis (SDA) plus linkage analysis, for identifying the key factors and sectors that affected production-source CO2 emissions in China. The proposed methodology extends the SDA to account for the import substitution effect within an open economy such as China and inc...

To encourage economic progress, China's government has been pushing domestic consumption as a substitute for its waning growth in investment and exports. It has also been promoting greener policies for growth, of which green consumerism is a prime component. By examining the economy through the lens of household energy consumption, this paper lays...

Egypt has proposed a new development corridor. A main component is a desert-based expansion of the current highway network. This network is founded on a 1200-kilometer north-south route that starts at a proposed new port near El-Alemein and runs parallel to the Nile Valley to the border of Sudan. It also includes 21 east-west branches that connect...

Using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) to forecast the effect of exogenous shocks on the economy should be based on incorporate and error-free information that requires to update data in the SAM cells. Many techniques are available for updating a SAM. Here we use an approach based on the fuzzy set theory. Essentially, we restrict estimates of a mat...

We develop an interregional computable general equilibrium model to help assess the ex ante impact of transportation infrastructure policies in Egypt. The model is integrated with a GIS network. We illustrate the analytical capabilities of the model by looking at the domestic integration of the country. Improvements of transportation costs among Eg...

This study estimated the impact of spending by North Jersey Coast Line (NJCL) riders during summer weekends on the economies of the Jersey Shore communities known for beach-oriented recreational activities. The NJCL is a commuter rail line that provides many workers with access to their workplaces on weekdays throughout the year. The line also prov...

This paper analyses the impact of the Hudson-Bergen Light Rail (HBLR) on residential property prices. Unlike similar studies that use a hedonic model with cross-sectional data, this one uses repeat-sales data of properties that sold at least twice between 1991 and 2009. It shows how proximity to the nearest HBLR station, relative accessibility gain...

In this Presidential Address, the author takes the reader on a reconnaissance of his life and time as a regional scientist. He points out scenery he found scintillating along the way, hoping that some may pick up the banner and chew on a few of the ideas for a while. He suggests a revisit to Albert O. Hirschman's notion of key sectors and more empi...

This report estimates the macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of Hurricane Sandy on the economy of New Jersey using the R/ECON™ forecasting model of the state’s economy. The model consists of more than 250 quarterly time-series equations and 30 employment sectors. The analysis takes into account both the economic losses resulting from the hurricane a...

China has relied on energy to stimulate its booming economy. As a result, its share of world energy consumption rose to 17.3% in 2009 from 7.9% in 1978. Somewhat surprisingly, through 2000 its rate of energy consumption was about half its rate of economic growth. This trend changed after 2001 as energy consumption rose about 1.3 times more rapidly...

China has relied on energy to stimulate its booming economy. As a result, its share of world energy consumption rose to 17% in 2009 from 7.9% in 1978. Somewhat surprisingly, through 2000 its rate of energy consumption was about half its rate of economic growth. This trend changed after 2001 as energy consumption rose about 1.3 times more rapidly th...

This year marks the 25th anniversary of the International Input–Output Association and the 25th volume of Economic Systems Research. To celebrate this anniversary, a group of eight experts provide their views on the future of input–output. Looking forward, they foresee progress in terms of data collections, methods, theory testing, and focus and sc...

In this paper, we generalize hypothetical extraction techniques. We suggest that the effect of certain economic phenomena can be measured by removing them from an input–output (I–O) table and by rebalancing the set of I–O accounts. The difference between the two sets of accounts yields the phenomenon’s effect (or importance).We suggest that the app...

We built three simulation models that can assist rail transit planners and operators to evaluate high and low probability rail-centered hazard events that could lead to serious consequences for rail-centered networks and their surrounding regions. Our key objective is to provide these models to users who, through planning with these models, can pre...

Theoretically speaking, heavy tax rates on gambling should dampen growth of the casino revenues. Indeed, a cursory glance at data across U.S. states suggests more jobs and income are generated directly by the gaming industry when lower tax rates are applied. Using a detailed computable general equilibrium model, we evaluate the effects of a propose...

Since 1999, 23 New Jersey transit villages have been designated in New Jersey municipalities, with the intention of intensifying development around rail stations and bus hubs. As one test of the effectiveness of this state effort, the appreciation in residential property values is investigated and compared with that in other municipalities in the s...

Forecasting is an important tool in planning and policy making. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for power systems planning, efficient dispatching of electricity in the grid and to forecast other macro-economic trends. This paper summarizes and presents auto-regressive techniques/processes as a practical tool in forecasting electricity dem...

The effect of historic district designation on housing values is from a theoretical perspective rather ambiguous. Nonetheless, empirical evidence to date, while by no means conclusive, has overwhelmingly favored this special status for older towns and neighborhoods. In fact, the evidence tends to point out that more stringent ordinances and standar...

The analysis reported here suggests that the presence of a college is associated with house prices that are about 2.7 percent higher. However, the effect is caused only by 4-year colleges, and the primary source of the effect is the degree to which the college is residential. Interestingly, the size of the college as measured by enrollment has no e...

This paper examines the effect of public acquisitions of open space on changes in house prices and the municipal tax base using municipal-level data from New Jersey. We find that open-space expenditures yield a stream of benefits in the future but that any effect of open-space acquisitions on the tax base is immediate. Finally, we find that while h...

Introducing a new co-Editor, new (permanent) journal website, becoming an open access journal, indexing on RePEc, SRSA’s 50th Anniversary, and more!

We decompose labor productivity growth from 1987 to 2005 by examining six partial factors (both supply and demand): changes in value-added coefficients, labor inputs, shares of sectoral demands that are fulfilled domestically, input mix, and the intra-sectoral shares and intersectoral mix of final demand. Our analysis confirms that simply by virtue...

This article probes the many ways in that regional scientists call be policy relevant at a state level focus. Personal anecdotes are used to illustrate the many ways we serve in this capacity, while still acting as the type of researchers that Walter Isard envisioned we would be at the outset of our field. It concludes with recommendations on how r...

This article incorporates a political decision process into an urban land use model to predict the likely location of a public good. It fills an important gap in the literature by modeling the endogenous location of open space. The article compares open space decisions made under a majority rules voting scheme with welfare-improving criterion and f...

This paper demonstrates how road improvements can be interpreted as productivity improvements in the transportation services industry. Such economic gains are then translated into a general equilibrium context in the case of the Peace Bridge between Buffalo, New York, and Fort Erie, Ontario, Canada. Variables exogenous to the model are (a) the meas...

The literature on regional disparities in China is both broad and deep. Nonetheless, much of its focus has been on the effects of trade liberalization and national policies toward investment in interior provinces. Few pieces have examined whether the disparities might simply be due to differences in industry mix, final demand, or even interregional...

When Robert Gibbs and I took over editorial management of this journal in 2007, we had many lofty goals in mind for The Review of Regional Studies. The main one was to continue the journal’s excellence achieved under the wardship of our immediate predecessors, Dan Rickman and Ronald Moomaw. When prodded, Dan made it clear that a key to their succes...

The literature on regional disparities in China is both broad and deep. Nonetheless much of its focus has been on the effects of trade liberalization and national policies toward investment in interior provinces. Few pieces have examined whether the disparities might simply be due to differences in industry mix, final demand, or even interregional...

A wide range of approaches are available for classifying coefficients according to their importance to an economy. The 'tolerable limits' approach is one that has been extensively written about. Nevertheless, it seems unsuitable for assessing the overall importance of a coefficient to an economy, but instead appears to be rather well suited for det...

This paper examines the effect of public acquisitions of open space on house prices and the municipal tax base. While a series of studies show that open space acquisitions raise values of nearby properties, no research to date appears to focus upon the effect of open space acquisitions upon local tax base. Existing studies focus on the effect of op...

The number and magnitude of devastating natural and human events make it imperative that we actively and systematically estimate the costs and benefits of policy decisions in affected localities, regions, states, and nations. Such strategic risk management preparedness efforts should forecast well into the future and include scenarios with and with...

The economic impacts of potential terrorist attacks on the New Jersey electric power system are examined using a regional econometric model. The magnitude and duration of the effects vary by type of business and income measure. We assume damage is done during in the summer 2005 quarter, a peak period for energy use. The state economy recovers withi...

The views and opinions presented here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

This paper is an investigation into the relative importance of a wide variety of factors in influencing whether members of the American public support or oppose the use of biotechnology in agriculture and food production. To accomplish this end, as well as to facilitate the examination of a large number of independent variables simultaneously, seve...

We analyze appreciation rates across comparable designated and undesignated neighborhoods in Memphis, Tennessee. Using appreciation rates potentially nullifies the objection to using assessed values in such an analysis while also mitigating some of the bias inherent in the differences between otherwise similar designated and undesignated neighborho...

In this contribution, we study the decline of labor compensation's share of US GDP in the eighties and early nineties. According to data on gross domestic product constructed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), this share steadily decreased from 59.1 to 56.0 percent between 1982 and 1997. This 3.1 percentage point drop may not seem notable. B...

Hybrid input-output models combine nonsurvey techniques for estimating regional direct requirements tables with superior data, which are obtained from experts, surveys, and other reliable sources (primary or secondary). Such data can be added at any stage of model construction. To date, hybrid model production has been defined only in very general...

Two economic simulation models were used to study the economic impact of complying with prevailing-wage requirements in a $10 billion school construction program in New Jersey. Our econometric and input-output models suggest that compliance with the prevailing-wage statute will generate over $6 billion in personal income, a little more than $11 bil...

The economic impacts of potential terrorist attacks on the New Jersey electric power system are examined using two regional economic models. The magnitude and duration of the effects vary by type of business and income measure. The shock is initiated in the summer 2005 quarter. The state economy quickly recovers within a year, if we assume that eco...

This paper introduces the rest of this issue of Economic Systems Research, which is dedicated to the contributions of Sir Richard Stone, Michael Bacharach, and Philip Israilevich. It starts out with a brief history of biproportional techniques and related matrix balancing algorithms. We then discuss the RAS algorithm developed by Sir Richard Stone...

The main difficulty in comparing the cost-of-living among metropolitan areas is that, at this level, prices of most goods and services are not available. Even when the prices are available, constructing aggregate prices for groups of goods and services comparable across areas, is a difficult task. In this paper we attempt to construct a cost-of-liv...

In this paper I investigate from a strict efficiency perspective whether or not New York City’s suburbs should be helping the city in its economic development efforts. By analyzing metropolitan New York City, I am able to take advantage of the area’s spatial size and the ready availability of a pool of economic data below the metropolitan level...

In this paper we develop an index for comparing the cost of doing business across several metropolitan areas in the U.S. Such indices can be used as leading indicators of metropolitan economic growth. To create the index, we first identify factors that influence the change in business activity in metropolitan areas. We then create an instrument tha...

Wassily Leontief was the founding father of input-output economics, for which he received the Nobel Prize in 1973. This book offers a collection of papers in his memory by his students and close colleagues. The first part focuses upon Leontief as an individual and scholar as well as his personal contributions to economics; the second includes new t...

This paper offers possible explanations for three generally observed facts about fiscal policy and development: (F1) the relative size of government increases as an economy develops, (F2) the rise in government and taxation are associated with rising or constant economic growth rates, and (F3) today's developing countries have larger government sec...

During the early 1990s, Section 8 vouchers were touted by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) as the way to provide greater housing choice for the poor while also deconcentrating them. Toward the end of the 1990s, however, evidence mounted that the voucher system was not deconcentrating the poor. In response, HUD developed a se...

Although the need for aggregation in input -output modelling has diminished with the increases in computing power, an alarming number of regional studies continue to use the procedure. The rationales for doing so typically are grounded in data problems at the regional level. As a result many regional analysts use aggregated national input -output m...

Recent work by Jackson (1998) subtly pointed out a means of forming direct input coefficient matrices from national technology that is different from that published elsewhere. In this paper, I rationalize his approach and also point out that prior approaches may still be useful in certain applications where the phenomenon of re-exports (imports tha...

Strong job growth, a vigorous bull market, and other indicators are taken by many as evidence that the Nation is healthy and well positioned for the next century. Yet in recent decades income inequality has widened, poverty rates have remained high even during economic expansions, and disparities between cities and suburbs have grown more pronounce...

The purpose of the Transportation Economic and Land Use System (TELUS) is to convert the transportation improvement program (TIP) into a management tool. Accordingly, the system provides detailed and easily accessible information on transportation projects in the region, as well as their interrelationships and impacts. By doing so, TELUS enables pu...

Historic preservation contributes greatly to housing and economic development. Historic preservation has produced almost 250,000 housing units through use of the federal historic rehabilitation tax credit. Additionally, heritage tourism is a multibillion‐dollar industry, and preservation projects help further community revitalization.Historic prese...

The economics of regional input-output model construction hinge on the cost of collecting better data versus the effect of data error on the accuracy of impact analyses. This paper considers the impact of data errors on the multipliers of a rural community and intercommunity input-output model. Estimates of sales to visitors in a tourism economy ar...

Fueled by the high costs of survey-based models and the inherent inaccuracies of non-survey models, a literature has emerged on hybrid regional input–output models. Although this literature has been instructive on the general approach that should be taken in the construction of such models, authors have provided little information about the precise...

Poverty rates for nonmetro families with children increased during the 1980s. Of these families, those headed by women had the highest poverty rate at 50.7% and were the household type whose rate increased most in nonmetro areas during the 1980s. Discusses differences in poverty rates and child poverty rates by county type and region. (KS)

Hybrid techniques are now the accepted means for producing regional input-output models. Nonetheless, the literature on hybrid model construction techniques has been sketchy at best in telling regional analysts where or how they might be able to obtain the "superior" data required to transform nonsurvey models into hybrid equivalents. Hence, it is...

Economic development specialists are often called upon to assess the total regional impacts of a project, policy, or program. This paper reviews traditional multiplier methods of impact evaluation, pointing out their advantages and limitations. Emphasis is given to definition and measurement problems as they affect the way regional multipliers are...

Recall that an RPC (regional purchase coefficient) is commonly defined as the proportion of the regional demand for a good or service that is fulfilled by regional production as opposed to imports from other regions. Accurate estimation of RPCs is thus basic to the specialization of a set of national technological input-output coefficients to a giv...