Michael P Kelly

• PhD
• Fellow at University of Cambridge

Regular testing using rapid antigen lateral flow tests (LFTs) was an important prevention strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, falsification of home LFTs was a concern. Using a large quota-representative sample of adults ( n = 1295) in England, we conducted a vignette survey consisting of four hypothetical scenarios of LFT falsification...

Gambling messaging is one potential component of a public health approach towards reducing gambling-related harm (GRH). This systematic review examined the effectiveness of existing public health gambling messaging interventions. Four databases were searched from inception to June 2023. Twenty-one papers met inclusion criteria. Studies were conduct...

Introduction Health interventions that require significant change to individual lifestyles or social norms can pose a challenge for widespread public acceptability and uptake. At the same time, over the last two decades, there has been increasing attention paid to the rise of populist movements globally, defined by ‘the people’ pushing against ‘an...

Background Policy and practice encourages patients to engage in self-care, with individual patient management and remote monitoring of disease. Much is known of the moderate stage of chronic disease, without a clear understanding of how self-care applies towards the end of life. Aim To review the current evidence on practices of self-care in life-...

Background It is challenging to predict long-term outcomes of interventions without understanding how they work. Health economic models of public health interventions often do not incorporate the many determinants of individual and population behaviours that influence long term effectiveness. The aim of this paper is to draw on psychology, sociolog...

Background UK local authority public health teams (LAPHT) supported delivery of the Covid-19 vaccination programme, particularly to disadvantaged populations. We explored the challenges encountered and lessons learnt by LAPHTs in tackling low Covid-19 vaccine uptake. The aim of this study was to understand what works, and how, in addressing local i...

Background In 2016, large-scale 20 miles per hour speed limits were introduced in the United Kingdom cities of Edinburgh and Belfast. This paper investigates the role that scientific evidence played in the policy decisions to implement lower speed limits in the two cities. Methods Using a qualitative case study design, we undertook content analysi...

Background Gambling has been identified as an important public health issue. Independently developed public health gambling messaging is one potential component of a public health approach toward reducing gambling-related harm. The aim of this review was to systematically examine the evidence for the effectiveness of existing public health gambling...

Clear communication is vital for adopting public health interventions that promote protective behaviours against respiratory infections. This systematic review and network meta-analysis assessed the effectiveness of these interventions using behavioural science frameworks, including MINDSPACE contextual influencers and behaviour change techniques (...

What are the historical conditions under which a sociologically informed understanding of health inequality can emerge in the public sphere? We seek to address this question through the lens of a strategically chosen historical puzzle—the stubborn persistence of and salient variation in high infant mortality rates across British industrial towns at...

Aim: Epidemiological research on resistance and resilience can build on models of health developed in health promotion. Nevertheless, these models need to be adjusted to approaches currently employed in epidemiology; namely, included concepts should be easy to operationalize, and links between them should be simple enough to enable statistical mode...

Aim Epidemiological research on resistance and resilience can build on models of health developed in health promotion. Nevertheless, these models need to be adjusted to approaches currently employed in epidemiology; namely, included concepts should be easy to operationalize, and links between them should be simple enough to enable statistical model...

Objectives The objective was to assess the effectiveness of a Water Fluoridation program on a contemporary population of children. Methods The study used a longitudinal prospective cohort design. In Cumbria, England, two groups of children were recruited and observed over a period of 5–6 years. The Birth Cohort consisted of families recruited from...

Objectives The addition of fluoride to community drinking water supplies has been a long‐standing public health intervention to improve dental health. However, the evidence of cost‐effectiveness in the UK currently lacks a contemporary focus, being limited to a period with higher incidence of caries. A water fluoridation scheme in West Cumbria, Uni...

In this article we argue that social practices, which consist of sayings and doings that extend across space and time, generate and sustain distinctive patterns of microbial interaction. In taking this approach, we position practice theory within and not outside the realm of contemporary biological processes, including processes that matter for hum...

During the COVID-19 pandemic, lateral flow tests (LFTs) were used to regulate access to work, education, social activities, and travel. However, falsification of home LFT results was a concern. Falsification of test results during an ongoing pandemic is a sensitive issue. Consequently, respondents may not answer truthfully to questions about LFT fa...

BACKGROUND Virtual wards (VWs) are being introduced in England as a new way of delivering care to patients who would otherwise be hospitalised. Using digital technologies, patients can receive acute care, remote monitoring, and treatment in their own homes. Integrated Care System commissioners have an important role in the adoption and implementati...

Background Virtual wards (VWs) are being introduced within the National Health Service (NHS) in England as a new way of delivering care to patients who would otherwise be hospitalized. Using digital technologies, patients can receive acute care, remote monitoring, and treatment in their homes. Integrated care system commissioners are employees invo...

Background There has been a rapid increase in the number of, and demand for, organisations offering behavioural science advice to government over the last ten years. Yet we know little of the state of science and the experiences of these evidence providers. Aims and objectives To identify current practice in this emerging field and the factors tha...

During the COVID-19 pandemic, lateral flow tests (LFTs) were used in England to regulate access to work, education, social activities, and travel. However, falsification of home LFT results was a concern. This study estimated the prevalence of LFT falsification behaviours (FBs) in a representative sample of adults living in England (n=1577) who hav...

The effectiveness and cost of a public health intervention is dependent on complex human behaviors, yet health economic models typically make simplified assumptions about behavior, based on little theory or evidence. This paper reviews existing methods across disciplines for incorporating behavior within simulation models, to explore what methods c...

Background Behavioural weight management interventions require high personal agency and are, therefore, susceptible to widening health inequalities. Our previous systematic review found that most trials of these interventions did not consider inequalities, there was heterogeneity in how inequality characteristics were captured, and in the performed...

Background There is limited evidence on what shapes the acceptability of population level dietary and active-travel policies in England. This information would be useful in the decision-making process about which policies should be implemented and how to increase their effectiveness and sustainability. To fill this gap, we explored public and polic...

Introduction It is important to identify whether behavioural weight management interventions work well across different groups in the population so health inequalities in obesity are not widened. Previous systematic reviews of inequalities in the attendance and effectiveness of behavioural weight management interventions have been limited because f...

Introduction This research investigates how community-led organisations’ (CLOs’) use of assets-based approaches improves health and well-being, and how that might be different in different contexts. Assets-based approaches involve ‘doing with’ rather than ‘doing to’ and bring people in communities together to achieve positive change using their own...

Background: Weight loss through behavioural weight management interventions can have important health benefits for people with obesity. However, to maximise the health benefits, weight lost must be maintained. Evidence suggests that behavioural weight loss interventions do not exacerbate inequalities in the short-term. However, no study has yet co...

Background Evidence regarding the effectiveness of 20 miles per hour (mph) speed limit interventions is limited, and rarely have long-term outcomes been assessed. We investigate the effect of a 20 mph speed limit intervention on road traffic collisions, casualties, speed and volume at 1 and 3 years post-implementation. Methods An observational, re...

23 who either did not want or had not yet decided to be vaccinated 24 against COVID-19 25 Early studies showed that 28-36% of UK adults were unsure or unwilling to be 26 vaccinated against COVID-19. We wanted to identify which socio-demographic, 27 socioeconomic , personal health and psychological factors were associated with 28 COVID-19 vaccine in...

Background Water fluoridation was introduced in the UK against a background of high dental decay within the population. Levels of decay have dramatically reduced over the last 40 years following widespread use of fluoride toothpaste. Objective The aim of the CATFISH (Cumbrian Assessment of Teeth a Fluoride Intervention Study for Health) study was...

This paper describes the experience of surgery (panproctocolectomy and ileostomy) and a programme of physical exercise undertaken prior to and after operation. The events took place in 1983, before the contemporary focus on the idea that physical activity might be an adjunct to prehabilitation and rehabilitation in surgery. Some of the implications...

Lessons from the demise of Public Health England: where next for UK public health? 2 This report is based on a six-month research project that reviewed the policies and actions behind the establishment and closure of Public Health England (PHE). Its aim is to provide learning for PHE's successor organisations-the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) a...

Background Transport initiatives such as 20-mph (≈30-km/h) speed limits are anticipated to result in fewer road casualties and improve perceptions of safety, leading to increases in active travel. Lower speeds may also lead to more pleasant environments in which to live, work and play. Objectives The main objective was to evaluate and understand t...

Background Weight loss through behavioural weight management interventions can have important health benefits for people with obesity and can be cost-effective if weight loss is maintained long-term. However, concerns have been raised that such interventions may exacerbate health inequalities by being less effective in more disadvantaged groups. In...

Background In 2016, large scale 20mph speed limits were implemented in the cities of Edinburgh (Scotland) and Belfast (Northern Ireland). The fact that both cities succeeded in implementing 20mph speed limit interventions is important. They illustrate the processes of transport and public health policy change. This paper describes how 20mph speed l...

Background How quality in healthcare is measured shapes care provision, including how and what care is delivered. In end-of-life care, appropriate measurement can facilitate effective care and research, and when used in policy, highlight deficits and developments in provision and endorse the discipline necessity. The most prevalent end-of-life qual...

The extent to which behavioral weight management interventions affect health inequalities is uncertain, as is whether trials of these interventions directly consider inequalities. We conducted a systematic review, synthesizing evidence on how different aspects of inequality impact uptake, adherence, and effectiveness in trials of behavioral weight...

In the middle the COVID-19 pandemic, we reflect ever more deeply about the nature of health and disease, and about how to design and implement effective public health interventions. For numerous diseases and conditions, as well as for COVID-19, our knowledge base is rich. We know a lot about the biology of the disease, and we have plenty of statist...

Objectives Traffic speed is important to public health as it is a major contributory factor to collision risk and casualty severity. 20mph (32km/h) speed limit interventions are an increasingly common approach to address this transport and health challenge, but a more developed evidence base is needed to understand their effects. This study describ...

Early studies showed that 28–36% of UK adults were unsure or unwilling to be vaccinated against COVID-19. We wanted to identify which socio-demographic, socio-economic, personal health and psychological factors were associated with COVID-19 vaccine intentions (CVI) in adults living in England who did not want, yet to consider, or not sure whether t...

It was highlighted that in the original article [1] the legend of Fig. 2 was erroneously swapped with an in-text sentence. This Correction article shows the correct Fig. 2. The original article has been updated.

Background Twenty miles per hour (20mph) speed limits (equivalent to roughly 30kmh) have become part of public health policies to reduce urban road collisions and casualties, especially in Western countries. Public opinion plays a crucial role in opposition to and acceptance of policies that are advocated for improving public health. Twenty miles p...

This chapter begins with a consideration of the technical processes used for conducting health needs assessment. The relationship between health needs assessment and health economics is then examined and the philosophy of utilitarianism and its influence on health economics is explored. Cost utility analysis and its links to studies of quality of l...

Effective communication between academics and policy makers plays an important role in informing political decision making and creating impact for researchers. Policy briefs are short evidence summaries written by researchers to inform the development or implementation of policy. This guide has been developed to support researchers to write effecti...

Introduction Reductions in traffic speed can potentially offer multiple health and public health benefits. In 2016, implementation of 20mph (30kph) speed limit interventions began in Edinburgh (city-wide) and Belfast (city centre). The aims of this paper are to describe 1) the broad theoretical approach and design of two natural experimental studie...

Background Health inequalities are a public health priority. The extent to which behavioural weight management interventions impact health inequalities is uncertain, as is the extent to which trials of these interventions consider inequalities. We conducted a systematic review synthesising evidence on how different measures of inequality impact the...

Background As of 15 February 2021, over 20 million people in England have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Population-level immunological protection requires the large majority to be vaccinated, though given the spread of misinformation and vaccine hesitancy concerns, this may be challenging. Therefore, this study aimed to elicit fr...

Bedtime routines have been shown to have significant associations with health, wellbeing and development outcomes for children and parents. Despite the importance of bedtime routines, most research has been carried out in the United States, with little information on bedtime routine characteristics and activities for families in other countries suc...

Background Liveability is a complex, multifaceted concept with various definitions, but with an agreed core set of features (e.g., safety, walkability). Typically, liveability is measured at the macro-level (city or regional-level), and has been used in advocacy by local populations. However, micro-level (street-level) liveability measurements coul...

Twenty miles per hour (mph) speed limits can impact the health of the public (e.g., road safety, active travel). However, a better understanding of how individuals experience 20mph limits is required, to ensure interventions are cognisant of perceptions and potential un/intended outcomes. Focus groups (n = 9, 60 participants) to explore the Belfast...

Background Out-of-hours (OOH) hospital admissions for patients receiving end-of-life care are a common cause of concern for patients, families, clinicians, and policymakers. It is unclear what issues, or combinations of issues, lead OOH clinicians to initiate hospital care for these patients. Aim To investigate the circumstances, processes, and me...

Background: Oral hygiene behaviours as well as dietary habits before bed can affect children’s dental health resulting in higher prevalence of dental disease. Dental disease can affect children’s health, development and even school performance. If left untreated, dental disease can progress and it can lead to extractions under general anaesthetic c...

The prevalence of obesity and related health problems has increased sharply in recent decades. Dominant medical, economic, psychological, and especially epidemiological accounts conceptualise these trends as outcomes of individuals’ lifestyles – whether freely chosen or determined by an array of obesogenic factors. As such, they rest on forms of me...

Social factors have been linked to disease severity and mortality in COVID-19. These social factors are ethnicity, social disadvantage, age, gender and occupation. Pre-existing medical conditions have also been identified as increasing risk. This paper explores the relationship between these social and biological factors using a syndemic frame of r...

Background: It has been suggested that interventions focusing on individual behaviour change, such as behavioural weight management interventions, may exacerbate health inequalities. These intervention-generated inequalities may occur at different stages, including intervention uptake, adherence and effectiveness. We conducted a systematic review t...

This paper explored UK public understanding of antibody testing at the point in the Covid-19 pandemic when the UK Government thought antibody tests may offer hope that those with a positive antibody test result could return to normal life. On-line focus groups were conducted with members of the public resident in the UK.

Background During the COVID-19 pandemic, antibody testing was proposed by several countries as a surveillance tool to monitor the spread of the virus and potentially to ease restrictions. In the UK, antibody testing originally formed the third pillar of the UK Government’s COVID-19 testing programme and was thought to offer hope that those with a n...

Objectives: Bedtime routines are a highly recurrent family activity with important health, social and behavioural implications. This study examined perceived barriers to, and facilitators of, formulating, establishing, and maintaining optimal bedtime routines in families with young children. Design: Participants completed a semi-structured intervie...

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic represents a major societal challenge that requires large-scale behaviour change, widespread collective action and cooperation to reduce viral transmission. Existing literature indicates that several messaging approaches may be effective, including emphasising the benefits to the recipient, aligning with the recip...

Empirical study of road traffic collision (RTCs) rates is challenging at small geographies due to the relative rarity of collisions and the need to account for secular and seasonal trends. In this paper, we demonstrate the successful application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) to describe RTCs time series using...

Background: Behaviour change interventions (BCI), their contexts and evaluation methods are heterogeneous, making it difficult to synthesise evidence and make recommendations for real-world policy and practice. Ontologies provide a means for addressing this. They represent knowledge formally as entities and relationships using a common language abl...

Background: Behaviour change interventions (BCI), their contexts and evaluation methods are heterogeneous, making it difficult to synthesise evidence and make recommendations for real-world policy and practice. Ontologies provide a means for addressing this. They represent knowledge formally as entities and relationships using a common language abl...

Background Many global health challenges may be targeted by changing people’s behaviour. Behaviours including cigarette smoking, physical inactivity and alcohol misuse, as well as certain dietary behaviours, contribute to deaths and disability by increasing the risk of cancers, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Interventions have been designed...

Purpose of review: The paper applies recent conceptualisations of predictive processing to the understanding of inequalities in mental health. Recent findings: Social neuroscience has developed important ideas about the way the brain models the external world, and how the interface between cognitive and cultural processes interacts. These resona...

Background: Behaviour and behaviour change are integral to many aspects of wellbeing and sustainability. However, reporting behaviour change interventions accurately and synthesising evidence about effective interventions is hindered by lacking a shared, scientific terminology to describe intervention characteristics. Ontologies are standardised fr...

Background: Behaviour and behaviour change are integral to many aspects of wellbeing and sustainability. However, reporting behaviour change interventions accurately and synthesising evidence about effective interventions is hindered by lacking a shared, scientific terminology to describe intervention characteristics. Ontologies are standardised fr...

Introduction It has been suggested that interventions focusing on individual behaviour change, such as behavioural weight management interventions, may exacerbate health inequalities. These intervention-generated inequalities may occur at different stages, including intervention uptake, adherence and effectiveness. We will synthesise evidence on ho...

Background: Behavioral interventions typically include multiple behavior change techniques (BCTs). The theory informing the selection of BCTs for an intervention may be stated explicitly or remain unreported, thus impeding the identification of links between theory and behavior change outcomes. Purpose: This study aimed to identify groups of BCT...

Objective: The study sought to explore the consent rate and associated potential bias across a cohort in a large longitudinal population based study. Research design: Data were taken from a study designed to examine the effects of the reintroduction of community water fluoridation on children's oral health over a five-year period. Children were...

A nudge is an intervention designed to prompt people to "voluntarily" make the choice intended by those who altered the choice environment or situation, and therefore using nudges is thought to undermine self-determination. Evidence for this assumption is weak, however, and sets aside much of what we know about human conduct sociologically. This pa...

Background Encouraging incidental physical activity is an important strategy to improve population health. Recent research has drawn on social practice theory to describe the recursive and relational character of active living, which could help to understand conditions for change. A growing evidence base suggests that gender should be considered am...

Background Tobacco smoking is a major cause of chronic disease and premature mortality. Its effects are socially patterned. Observational studies show that low socioeconomic status [SES] is associated with higher smoking prevalence and lower cessation rates. Interventions in primary care may improve or exacerbate health inequalities depending on so...

Researchers, practitioners, and policymakers develop interventions to change behavior based on their understanding of how behavior change techniques (BCTs) impact the determinants of behavior. A transparent, systematic, and accessible method of linking BCTs with the processes through which they change behavior (i.e., their mechanisms of action [MoA...

Background: Behaviour and behaviour change are integral to many aspects of wellbeing and sustainability. However, reporting behaviour change interventions accurately and synthesising evidence about effective interventions is hindered by lacking a shared, scientific terminology to describe intervention characteristics. Ontologies are knowledge struc...

Background: Behaviour and behaviour change are integral to many aspects of wellbeing and sustainability. However, reporting behaviour change interventions accurately and synthesising evidence about effective interventions is hindered by lacking a shared, scientific terminology to describe intervention characteristics. Ontologies are knowledge struc...

Physical activity (PA) and exercise are among the most important determinants of health. However, PA is a complex and heterogeneous behavior and the biological mechanisms through which it impacts individuals and populations in different ways are not well understood. Genetics and environment likely play pivotal roles but further work is needed to un...

Rationale Evidence‐based medicine (EBM), the dominant approach to assessing the effectiveness of clinical and public health interventions, focuses on the results of association studies. EBM+ is a development of EBM that systematically considers mechanistic studies alongside association studies. Aims and objectives To explore examples of the import...

An excessive workload and work-related stress have contributed to an increasing sense of job dissatisfaction amongst many GPs. This coupled with the reducing cap under pension changes introduced 2010-2014 (effectively a pension of around £50K p.a. above which there are significant prohibitive tax penalties) has led to many physicians retiring from...

Background: High response rates are essential when questionnaires are used within research, as representativeness can affect the validity of studies and the ability to generalise the findings to a wider population. The study aimed to measure the response rate to questionnaires from a large longitudinal epidemiological study and sought to determine...

This policy brief summarises the key messages from five virtual focus groups conducted with a total of 59 members of the general public. • There was limited and confused understanding of what an antibody test is and what its results mean • There was lack of clarity about reinfection, immunity and risks to self and others following testing • The mea...

Background : Contextual factors such as an intervention’s setting are key to understanding how interventions to change behaviour have their effects and patterns of generalisation across contexts. The intervention’s setting is not consistently reported in published reports of evaluations. Using ontologies to specify and classify intervention setting...