Michael P Keane

• Ph.D.
• Professor at UNSW Sydney

To measure the extent of incomplete information about brand qualities faced by consumers, recent research in marketing and economics has extended traditional static choice models to explicitly allow for consumer learning. These models tend to be complicated and make stringent assumptions such as Bayesian updating. In this paper, we provide a simple...

We propose new methods to model behavior and conduct welfare analysis in complex environments where some choices are unlikely to reveal preferences. We develop a mixture-of-experts model that incorporates heterogeneity in consumers’ preferences and in their choice processes. We also develop a method to decompose logit errors into latent preferences...

We develop an econometric model of consumer panic (or panic buying) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using Google search data on relevant keywords, we construct a daily index of consumer panic for 54 countries from January 1st to April 30th 2020. We also assemble data on government policy announcements and daily COVID-19 cases for all countries. Our p...

Predicting the impact of climate change on crop yield is difficult, in part because the production function mapping weather to yield is high dimensional and nonlinear. We compare three approaches to predicting yields: (i) deep neural networks (DNNs), (ii) traditional panel-data models, and (iii) a new panel-data model that allows for unit and time...

There is now a very large literature on dynamic learning models in marketing. Learning dynamics can be broadly defined as encompassing any process whereby the prior history of a consumer or market affects current utility evaluations (e.g., social learning, search, correlated learning, information spillover, etc.). In the present chapter, we focus...

In this article, we introduce the new command xtkr, which implements the Keane and Runkle (1992a, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10: 1– 9) approach for fitting linear panel-data models when the available instruments are predetermined but not strictly exogenous. This is a common case that includes dynamic panel-data models as a leading...

We develop an equilibrium model of the US labor market, fit to Panel Study of Income Dynamics data from 1968-96. Our main innovation is a finer differentiation of types of labor than in prior work (i.e., by occupation, education, gender, and age). This lets us fit wage and employment patterns better than simpler models. We obtain a good fit to wage...

One of the core goals of a universal health care system is to eliminate discrimination on the basis of socioeconomic status. We test for discrimination using patient waiting times for non-emergency treatment in public hospitals. Waiting time should reflect patients' clinical need with priority given to more urgent cases. Using data from Australia,...

While there is general agreement that consumer taste heterogeneity is crucially important in marketing, there is no consensus on a preferred approach to modeling heterogeneity. In this paper, we assess the performance of five alternative choice models, using ten empirical data sets. We include the popular latent class (LC) model, and the mixed logi...

The response of aggregate labor supply to various changes in the economic environment is central to many economic issues, especially the optimal design of tax policies. Conventional wisdom based on studies in the 1980s and 1990s has long held that the analysis of micro data leads one to conclude that aggregate labor supply elasticities are quite sm...

Access to elective surgery in Australian public hospitals is rationed using waiting lists. In this paper we undertake a DiNardo-Fortin-Lemieux reweighting approach to attribute variation in waiting time to clinical need or to discrimination. Using data from NSW public patients in 2004-2005, we find the discrimination effect dominates clinical need...

The purpose of this chapter is twofold: (1) to provide an accessible introduction to the methods of structural estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming (DCDP) models and (2) to survey the contributions of applications of these methods to substantive and policy issues in labor economics. The first part of the chapter describes solution and...

In many research contexts it is necessary to group experimental subjects into behavioral "types." Usually, this is done by pre-specifying a set of candidate decision- making heuristics and then assigning each subject to the heuristic that best describes his/her behavior. Such approaches might not perform well when used to explain the behavior of su...

The response of aggregate labor supply to various changes in the economic environment is central to many economic issues, especially the optimal design of tax policies. This paper surveys recent work that uses structural models and micro data to evaluate the size of this response. Whereas the earlier literature on this issue often concluded that ag...

More than 45% of Australians buy health insurance for private treatment in hospital. This is despite having access to universal and free public hospital treatment. Anecdotal evidence suggests that avoidance of long waits for public treatment is one possible explanation for the high rate of insurance coverage. In this study, we investigate the effec...

This paper develops a smooth mixture of Tobits (SMTobit) model for healthcare expenditure. The model is a generalization of the smoothly mixing regressions framework of Geweke and Keane (J Econometrics 2007; 138: 257-290) to the case of a Tobit-type limited dependent variable. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with data augmentation is developed...

This present survey has three main objectives. The first is to summarize the existing literature on learning models. We will discuss the different types of models that have been estimated, and assess the progress that has been made – both empirically and methodologically. The second objective is to identify the main issues and challenges that confr...

We evaluate the effect of child care versus maternal time inputs on child cognitive development using single mothers from the NLSY79. To deal with nonrandom selection of children into child care, we exploit the exogenous variation in welfare policy rules facing single mothers. In particular, the 1996 welfare reform and earlier state-level policy ch...

Angiogenesis occurs during growth and physiological adaptation in many systemic organs, for example, exercise-induced skeletal and cardiac muscle hypertrophy, ovulation, and tissue repair. Disordered angiogenesis contributes to chronic inflammatory disease processes and to tumor growth and metastasis. Although it was previously thought that the adu...

To measure the extent of incomplete information about brand qualities faced by consumers, recent research in marketing and economics has extended traditional static choice models to explicitly allow for consumer learning. These models tend to be complicated and make stringent assumptions such as Bayesian updating. In this paper, we provide a simple...

We assess the impact of a variety of policies that may influence the career decisions of members of the US Congress. These policies alter incentives to run for re-election, run for higher office or leave Congress, by altering wages, non-pecuniary rewards and career prospects (both in and out of Congress). We find that the effect of most policies va...

In tax-financed health care systems, where the price of health care is essentially zero, explicit waiting lists are the most common means of rationing demand. Australia, New Zealand, the UK, Canada and Scandinavian countries use waiting lists to allocate non-emergency health treatments at public hospitals. Australians have access to universal and f...

The mixed or heterogeneous multinomial logit (MIXL) model has become popular in a number of fields, especially marketing, health economics, and industrial organization. In most applications of the model, the vector of consumer utility weights on product attributes is assumed to have a multivariate normal (MVN) distribution in the population. Thus,...

This article evaluates the effects of maternal vs. alternative care providers’ time inputs on children’s cognitive development using the sample of single mothers in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. To deal with the selection problem created by unobserved heterogeneity of mothers and children, we develop a model of mother’s employment and...

In this paper I attempt to lay out the sources of conflict between the so-called “structural” and “experimentalist” camps in econometrics. Critics of the structural approach often assert that it produces results that rely on too many assumptions to be credible, and that the experimentalist approach provides an alternative that relies on fewer assum...

What has always bothered me about the "experimentalist" school is the false sense of certainty it conveys. My view, like Leamer's, is that there is no way to escape the role of assumptions in statistical work, so our conclusions will always be contingent. Hence, we should be circumspect about our degree of knowledge. I present some lessons for econ...

This article develops a simulation estimation algorithm that is particularly useful for estimating dynamic panel data models with unobserved endogenous state variables. Repeated sampling experiments on dynamic probit models with serially correlated errors indicate the estimator has good small sample properties. We apply the estimator to a model of...

I survey the male and female labor supply literatures, focusing on implications for effects of wages and taxes. For males, I describe and contrast results from three basic types of model: static models (especially those that account for nonlinear taxes), life-cycle models with savings, and life-cycle models with both savings and human capital. For...

This study investigated the hypothesis that socioeconomic differences in health status change can largely be explained by the higher prevalence of individual health-risk behaviors among those of lower socioeconomic position. Data were from the Americans' Changing Lives study, a longitudinal survey of 3617 adults representative of the US non-institu...

In the Australian public health system, access to elective surgery is rationed through provision of health care services, it is generally assumed that a patientÂ’s waiting time and locations. In this paper we undertake Oaxaca-Blinder and DiNardo-Fortin-Lemieux decompostition analyses to attribute variation in waiting time to a component explaine by...

Besley, Hall, and Preston (1999) estimated a model of the demand for private health insurance in Britain as a function of regional waiting lists and found that increases in the number of people waiting for more than 12 months (the long-term waiting list) increased the probability of insurance purchase. In the absence of waiting time data, the lengt...

The inter-generational correlation of education in the U.S. is tremendous. For instance, in PSID data from 1990, young males with college-educated parents had a 70% chance of attending college. But those with high school drop-out parents had only a 15% chance. In this paper, we analyze the impact of college attendance bonus schemes designed to incr...

Using confidential firm-level data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on activities of U.S. multinational corporations (MNCs) and their Canadian affiliates, we study the dramatic growth of intra-firm and arm's-length U.S.-Canada trade over the 1984-95 period. We find that decisions to engage in intra-firm and arm's-length trade are essentia...

Two key issues in the literature on female labor supply are (i) whether persistence in employment status is due to unobserved heterogeneity or state dependence, and (ii) whether fertility is exogenous to labor supply. Until recently, the consensus was that unobserved heterogeneity is very important and fertility is endogenous. Hyslop (1999) challen...

I describe a strategy for structural estimation that uses simulated maximum likelihood (SML) to estimate the structural parameters appearing in a model's first-order conditions (FOCs). Generalized method of moments (GMM) is often the preferred method for estimation of FOCs, as it avoids distributional assumptions on stochastic terms, "provided" all...

The workhorse brand choice models in marketing are the multinomial logit (MNL) and nested multinomial logit (NMNL). These models place strong restrictions on how brand share and purchase incidence price elasticities are related. In this paper, we propose a new model of brand choice, the “price consideration” (PC) model, that allows more flexibility...

The development over the past 25 years of methods for the estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming (DCDP) models opened up new frontiers for empirical research in a host of areas, including labor economics, industrial organization, economic demography, health economics, development economics, political economy and marketing. In this paper,...

This paper examines the effect of labor income taxation in life-cycle models where work experience builds human capital. In this case, the wage no longer equals the opportunity cost of time - which is, instead, the wage plus returns to work experience. This has a number of interesting consequences.

We review the discussion at a workshop whose goal was to achieve a better integration among behavioral, economic, and statistical approaches to choice modeling. The workshop explored how current approaches to the specification, estimation, and application of choice models might be improved to better capture the diversity of processes that are postu...

In this paper, we develop a structural model of household behavior in an environment where there is uncertainty about brand attributes and both prices and advertising signal brand quality. Four quality signaling mechanisms are at work: (1) price signals quality, (2) advertising frequency signals quality, (3) advertising content provides direct (but...

We provide evidence of advantageous selection in the Medigap insurance market and analyze its sources. Conditional on controls for Medigap prices, those with Medigap spend, on average, $4,000 less on medical care than those without. But if we condition on health, those with Medigap spend $2,000 more. The sources of this advantageous selection inclu...

In this paper we use Nielsen scanner panel data on four categories of consumer goods to examine how TV advertising and other marketing activities affect the demand curve facing a brand. Advertising can affect consumer demand in many different ways. Becker and Murphy (1993) have argued that the "presumptive case" should be that advertising works by...

Two key issues in the literature on female labor supply are: (1) if persistence in employment status is due to unobserved heterogeneity or state dependence, and (2) if fertility is exogenous to labor supply. Until recently, the consensus was that unobserved heterogeneity is very important, and fertility is endogenous. But Hyslop (1999) challenged t...

Intra-firm trade in intermediates between U.S. multinational parents (MNCs) and their Canadian manufacturing affiliates increased dramatically in the 1984-1995 period (i.e., it roughly doubled). Tariff and transport cost declines were far too small to explain this phenomenon. But we show that the advent of improved logistics management practices, i...

The so-called "mixed" or "heterogeneous" multinomial logit (MIXL) model has become popular in a number of fields, especially Marketing, Health Economics and Industrial Organization. In most applications of the model, the vector of consumer utility weights on product attributes is assumed to have a multivariate normal (MVN) distribution in the popul...

This paper extends the conventional Bayesian mixture of normals model by permitting state probabilities to depend on observed covariates. The dependence is captured by a simple multinomial probit model. A conventional and rapidly mixing MCMC algorithm provides access to the posterior distribution at modest computational cost. This model is competit...

A well-known method of validating econometric models (structural or otherwise) is to examine their performance in out-of-sample prediction. That is, given a change in the policy environment, do the key endogenous variables of the model move in ways that are in some sense "reasonably close" to the model's forecasts? Unfortunately however, as noted b...

A particularly challenging use of decision-theoretic models in economics is to forecast the impact of large changes in the environment. The problem we explore in this article is how to gain confidence in a model's ability to predict the impact of such large changes. We show that an approach to validation and model selection that includes the choice...

This paper evaluates the effects of home inputs on children's cognitive development using the sample of single mothers in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). Of course, an important selection problem arises when trying to assess the impact of maternal time and income on children's development. To deal with this, we take advantage of (...

In this paper we assess the impact of a variety of policies that may influence the career decisions of members of the U.S. Congress, using the empirical framework of Diermeier, Keane and Merlo (2005). These policies alter incentives to run for re-election, run for higher office or leave Congress, by altering wages, non-pecuniary rewards and career...

Two key issues in the literature on female labor supply are: (1) if persistence in employment status is due to unobserved heterogeneity or state dependence, and (2) if fertility is exogenous to labor supply. Until recently, the consensus was that unobserved heterogeneity is very important, and fertility is endogenous. But Hyslop (1999) challenged t...

Opportunities for external validation of behavioral models in the social sciences that are based on randomized social experiments or on large regime shifts, that can be treated as experiments for the purpose of model validation, are extremely rare. In this paper, we consider an alternative approach, namely mimicking the essential element of regime...

Using data from the NLSY79, we structurally estimate a dynamic model of the life cycle decisions of young women. The women make joint and sequential decisions about school attendance, work, marriage, fertility and welfare participation. We use the model to perform a set of counterfactual simulations designed to shed light on three questions: (1) Ho...

This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA’s research area Labor Markets in Transition Countries. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions. The Institute for the St...

In recent decades, U.S. foreign trade grew much faster than GDP, but there is no consensus why. Notably lacking is an understanding of the role of multinational corporations (MNCs), which mediate over half of world trade. We use Bureau of Economic Analysis data on U.S. MNCs to study the rapid growth of MNC-based trade from 1983 to 1996. Using a mod...

This study develops practical methods for Bayesian nonparametric inference in regression models. The emphasis is on extending a nonparametric treatment of the regression function to the full conditional distribution. It applies these methods to the relationship of earnings of men in the United States to their age and education over the period 1967...

In many research contexts it is useful to group experimental subjects into behavioral “types.” Usually, this is done by pre-specifying a set of candidate decision-making heuristics and assigning each subject to a heuristic in that set. Such approaches might perform poorly when applied to subjects with prefrontal cortex damage, because it can be har...

Our main goal is to quantify the returns to a career in the United States Congress. We specify a dynamic model of career decisions of a member of Congress and estimate this model using a newly collected dataset. Given estimates of the structural model, we assess reelection probabilities, estimate the effect of congressional experience on private an...

Using the Benchmark and Annual Surveys of U.S. Direct Investment Abroad collected by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the authors examine the operations of U.S. multinational corporations (MNCs) in seven manufacturing industries and twenty-two countries over the years 1982-91. They analyze how tariffs, wages, and industrial relations environments i...

We explore issues in theory-driven choice modeling by focusing on partial-equilibrium models of dynamic structural demand with forward-looking decision-makers, full equilibrium models that integrate the supply side, integration of bounded rationality in dynamic structural models of choice and public policy implications of these models. Copyright Sp...

We estimate a dynamic model of how consumers learn about and choose between different brands of personal computers (PCs). To estimate the model, we use a panel data set that contains the search and purchase behavior of a set of consumers who were in the market for a PC. The data includes the information sources visited each period, search durations...

A large literature on spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) uses aggregate indicators of foreign activity in local markets to evaluate whether FDI is beneficial to host countries. Across many different contexts, researchers have found mixed results on whether FDI generates positive spillovers that improve the efficiency of host country ec...

Theories in political economy depend critically on assumptions about motivations of politicians. Our analysis starts from the premise that politicians, like other economic agents, are rational individuals who make career decisions by comparing the expected returns of alternative choices. The main goal of the paper is to quantify the returns to a ca...

This paper contains additional details about the model in our paper "A Political Economy Model of Congressional Careers" (Diermeier, Keane and Merlo (2004)), as well as the computational methods we use to solve and estimate the model, and the construction of the data set.

Different people may use different strategies, or decision rules, when solving complex decision problems. We provide a new Bayesian procedure for drawing inferences about the nature and number of decision rules present in a population, and use it to analyze the behaviors of laboratory subjects confronted with a difficult dynamic stochastic decision...

THE PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA), signed into law in 1996, transformed the U.S. welfare system. PRWORA replaced the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program with Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). Since its inception in 1935 as part of the Social Security Act, AFDC had been the...

We solve and estimate a dynamic model that allows agents to optimally choose their labor hours and consumption and that allows for both human capital accumulation and savings. Estimation results and simulation exercises indicate that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is much higher than the conventional estimates and the downward bias co...

This paper contributes empirically to our understanding of informed traders. It analyzes traders' characteristics in a foreign exchange electronic limit order market via anonymous trader identities. We use six indicators of informed trading in a cross-sectional multivariate approach to identify traders with high price impact. More information is co...

We develop a model of household demand for frequently purchased consumer goods that are branded, storable and subject to stochastic price fluctuations. Our framework accounts for how inventories and expectations of future prices affect current period purchase decisions. We estimate our model using scanner data for the ketchup category. Our results...

Corruption in the public sector erodes tax compliance and leads to higher tax evasion. Moreover, corrupt public officials abuse their public power to extort bribes from the private agents. In both types of interaction with the public sector, the private agents are bound to face uncertainty with respect to their disposable incomes. To analyse effect...

In this paper, we provide estimates of welfare benefit effects on a set of behaviors that includes welfare participation, fertility, marriage, work and schooling using approximations to the decision rules that would be derived from an explicit dynamic optimization problem. We use the stylized model and associated simulations from Part I as a guide...

An extensive literature in economics seeks to determine the quantitative impact of welfare benefits on economic and demographic behaviors. Most studies adopt a static choice framework to motivate their empirical specifications. The behaviors that are studied, however, have both immediate and long-term consequences. If potential welfare recipients a...

this paper is as follows: In section 2 we give some background on the literature on experimental analysis of behavior in complex decision problems. In section 3 we present our experimental design. In section 4 we describe the Bayesian algorithm for classifying decision rules. Section 5 presents results and section 6 concludes

This paper analyzes the evolution of inequality in Poland during the economic transition that began in 1989-1990. Using microdata from the Household Budget Surveys, we find that, after a brief spike in 1989, income and consumption inequality actually declined to below pretransition levels during 1990-1992 and then increased gradually, rising only m...

Until recently, inference in many interesting models was precluded by the requirement of high dimensional integration. But dramatic increases in computer speed, and the recent development of new algorithms that permit accurate Monte Carlo evaluation of high dimensional integrals, have greatly expanded the range of models that can be considered. Thi...

Using confidential firm-level panel data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, we examine how the bilateral trade flows of U.S. multinational corporations (MNCs) and their Canadian affiliates responded to U.S.-Canadian tariff reductions from 1983 to 1992. We find that Canadian affiliate sales to the United States are negatively correlated with Cana...

Using confidential firm-level panel data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, we examine how the bilateral trade flows of U.S. multinational corporations (MNCs) and their Canadian affiliates responded to U.S.-Canadian tariff reductions from 1983 to 1992. We find that Canadian affiliate sales to the United States are negatively correlated with Cana...

A strong positive association between one's school attainment and that of one's parents has been consistently documented in numerous empirical studies. The underlying cause of this intergenerational correlation has been the subject of contentious debate in the social sciences for many years. Two competing types of explanations are prominent. The fi...

This paper estimates the risk preferences of cotton farmers in Southern Peru, using the results from a multiple-price-list lottery game. Assuming that preferences conform to two of the leading models of decision under risk--Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT)--we find strong evidence of moderate risk aversion. Once we...

In this article, we provide quantitative evidence on the effects of monetary incentive schemes designed to reduce racial differences in school attainment and earnings. Our analysis is based on the structural estimation of a dynamic model of schooling, work, and occupational choice decisions over the life cycle. We consider two recent proposals that...

Introduction Over the last decade econometric inference based on simulation techniques has become increasingly common, particularly for latent variable models. The reason is that such models often generate econometric objective functions that embed high-order integrals, and which, consequently, can be most easily evaluated using simulation techniqu...

This study uses data from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID) to address a number of questions about life cycle earnings mobility. It develops a dynamic reduced form model of earnings and marital status that is nonstationary over the life cycle. The study reaches several firm conclusions about life cycle earnings mobility. Incorporating non-...

This paper challenges the conventional wisdom that income and consumption inequality in Poland increased substantially following the economic transition in 1989-90. Using microdata from the 1985-92 Household Budget Surveys, we find that overall income inequality increased in 1989 but subsequently declined to pre- transition levels. The distribution...