Michael Jankowski

Michael Jankowski
Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg · Department of Social Sciences

Dr.

About

55
Publications
9,903
Reads
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274
Citations
Additional affiliations
March 2017 - March 2022
Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg
Position
  • PostDoc Position
April 2015 - September 2015
University of Hamburg
Position
  • Lecturer

Publications

Publications (55)
Article
This study applies black box scaling to the German Longitudinal Election Study candidate survey 2013 to shed light on an emerging right-wing party in Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). The scaling procedure extracts two meaningful and robust ideological dimensions described as socialism versus liberalism and libertarian versus authorit...
Article
While most of the literature on information shortcuts in open-list PR systems focuses on the importance of ballot position effects, the influence of a candidate's localness has widely been ignored by existing studies. In this paper, I address this research gap and argue that voting patterns in open-list PR systems are more versatile than existing r...
Article
In this research note, candidate survey data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) is used to analyse positional shifts of German Bundestag parties between 2013 and 2017. Two developments make Germany a particularly interesting case: (1) the liberal but also controversial policies of the Merkel cabinet during the European refugee crisi...
Article
Full-text available
Partisan conflicts have been frequently analysed in comparative political science research. Yet little is known about the dimensions of political conflict at the local level in multi-level democracies. This article contributes to the literature on the estimation and analysis of party positions by first presenting a new dataset of more than 800 loca...
Article
Drawing on Weber, this study tests whether the normative principles of merit orientation and impartiality are more prevalent in shaping public hiring preferences among civil servants-both junior and senior-than among private sector employees. In a conjoint experiment, respondents are asked to compare two hypothetical applicants for an office job in...
Article
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The left–right scale is widely used to measure ideological orientation. Relying on Freeden's approach to political ideology as a ‘conceptual morphology’, we argue that the meaning of ‘left’ and ‘right’ may change, but these changes are more likely for peripheral than core concepts. To test this argument, we analyze open-ended questions on the meani...
Article
Full-text available
Zusammenfassung Diese Research Note berichtet zentrale Ergebnisse des Open Expert Surveys 2021 (OES21). In diesem Expert:innen-Survey, der vor der Bundestagswahl 2021 durchgeführt wurde, haben mehr als 300 Politikwissenschaftler:innen die wichtigsten Parteien entlang zentraler politischer Sachfragen verortet und deren Wichtigkeit für die jeweilige...
Article
Getting a grip on issues of administrative delegation is key to the performance of public organizations. The oversight game models delegation as a conflict of interest between an inspector and an inspectee to act in the interests of the former. This study tests alternative solutions to overcome ‘shirking’ in the oversight game. Specifically, we tes...
Preprint
Despite the on-going success of populist parties in many parts of the world, we lack comprehensive information about parties' level of populism over time. A recent contribution to Political Analysis by Di Cocco and Monechi (DCM) suggests that this research gap can be closed by predicting parties' populism scores from their election manifestos using...
Article
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Zusammenfassung Welche Bedeutung messen die Landesparteien der Waldpolitik bei? Welche Waldfunktionen priorisieren sie? Inwieweit sind ihre Positionen von Parteiendifferenzen geprägt? Um diese Forschungsfragen zu adressieren, führen wir eine textanalytische Auswertung von Landtagswahlprogrammen durch, die im Zeitraum von 1990 bis 2019 veröffentlich...
Article
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Vaccine hesitancy is one of the major obstacles for successfully combating the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. To achieve a sufficiently high vaccination rate, calls for compulsory vaccinations have been discussed controversially. This study analyses what drives citizens’ attitudes towards compulsory vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic. Specificall...
Chapter
This chapter provides an overview of parliamentary speechmaking in the lower house of the Polish parliament, the Sejm, between 1991 and 2015. Members of the Sejm are elected under an open-list PR system, which creates incentives for legislators to use parliamentary speeches to cultivate personal vote. By analyzing all speeches held in seven terms,...
Article
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The design principles of institutions that visibly and significantly affect citizens' lives are likely to be politically salient. Popular support for these principles is in turn crucial for institutional viability and effectiveness. Transboundary pandemics are a case in point. Understanding citizens' preferences regarding the design of internationa...
Article
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Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Arbeit nimmt die große empirische Vielfalt in der Gestaltung von Stimmzetteln zum Anlass, um sich mit Frage zu beschäftigen, welche Stimmzettelmerkmale von Wählerinnen und Wählern gewünscht werden. Dazu greift die Studie auf ein Discrete-Choice-Experiment im Rahmen eines Online-Surveys mit rund 1200 deutschen Teilneh...
Article
Do candidates in local elections benefit from an incumbency advantage? And which factors moderate the strength of this incumbency bonus? Analyzing seven decades of Irish local elections (1942–2019) conducted under proportional representation through the single transferable vote, we reassess and extend the mixed evidence on the incumbency advantage...
Article
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Various studies demonstrate that candidates at the top of the party list have a strong advantage in preferential voting systems, particularly under open-list PR. Such ballot position effects can be explained by voters’ tendency to rely on easily available information shortcuts when selecting a candidate. In this paper, we argue that the strength of...
Article
In Germany, Independent Local Lists (UWG) have become an integral part of local politics in recent decades . Despite their growing political importance, the reasons for their electoral rise have hardly been researched . Recent studies argue that Independent Local Lists pursue anti-party positions, which makes them attractive to voters who are dissa...
Article
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Die kommunale Ebene gilt gemeinhin als „Schule der Demokratie“, bei der Bürger:innen leicht und ohne große Hürden bereits im Kleinen demokratische Aushandlungsprozesse und Partizipationsmöglichkeiten kennenlernen können. Umso erstaunlicher ist es, dass dann gerade auf dieser Ebene häufig davon ausgegangen – und teilweise auch vehement gefordert – w...
Article
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Independent local lists (ILL) have become an important non-partisan actor in many local elections. However, little is known about which factors explain their electoral success. Drawing on recent contributions regarding the anti-establishment attitudes of many ILL, we argue that the rise of anti-establishment parties, especially the rise of populist...
Chapter
Full-text available
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a relatively new and the first fully established right-wing populist actor in the German party system. While the electoral success and position-taking of the AfD at the national level has received much scholarly attention, little is known about the behaviour of the AfD at the local level. We address this researc...
Preprint
Full-text available
Has the COVID-19 pandemic caused early shifts in how citizens view constitutional power balances and policy tradeoffs? We conducted two survey experiments among 1192 Germans during the first week of lockdown. In a priming experiment, subjects were cued to think about the COVID-19 lockdown. While not affecting their ‘federal vs. state’ power balance...
Article
Electoral systems are a fundamental feature of any democratic system, and the design of an electoral system can have a tremendous impact on party-, candidate-, and voter-behaviour. However, in order to use all features of an electoral system as intended, voters must have a clear understanding of how their electoral system actually works. While earl...
Chapter
Die Analyse von Wahlprogrammen gehört zu einem zentralen Themenbereich der internationalen Wahl- und Parteienforschung. Während Analysen der Wahlprogramme auf Länder- und Bundesebene in Deutschland längst üblich und etabliert sind, gibt es bislang nur sehr wenige Erkenntnisse über Wahlprogramme auf kommunaler Ebene. Dies liegt keinesfalls daran, da...
Article
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Die Verfügbarkeit kommunaler Wahldaten stellt im bundesdeutschen Kontext häufig noch eine Hürde für die empirische Wahl- und Policyforschung dar. Der in diesem Beitrag vorgestellte „NieKom“-Datensatz, bestehend aus einem scientific use file (https://uol.de/polsys/niekom) und einer Online-Informationsplattform (http://srvg03.offis.unioldenburg.de/ni...
Article
Maciej Górecki provides a detailed and interesting discussion of our analysis regarding women's electoral success in the Polish open-list proportional representation (PR) system and the impact of a gender quota implemented in 2011. In essence, he claims that it remains an open question whether the gender quota had a ‘paradoxical’ effect (i.e., whet...
Chapter
Ziel des Beitrages ist eine Analyse der politischen Landschaft zur Bundestagswahl 2017. Dazu werden sowohl Daten aus gängigen Expertenbefragungen als auch aus Wahlhilfen („Voting Advice Applications“; VAAs) herangezogen. Der Beitrag zeigt, dass die politische Landschaft 2017 in zwei Lager, das „bürgerliche“ und das „linke“ Lager, gespalten war, was...
Article
In this article, we address the question of how electing women to national or subnational parliaments affects future female candidate selection in an open-list proportional representation system, using the example of Poland. We consider three potential effects of electing a woman. First, based on existing theories of the incumbency advantage, elect...
Chapter
Dieser Beitrag untersucht, wie die Kandidaten zur Bundestagswahl 2013 den Begriff „rechts“ interpretieren und welche Determinanten ihre Interpretation beeinflussen. In einem ersten Analyseschritt werden mithilfe eines Structural Topic Models die verschiedenen Interpretationen des Begriffs „rechts“ aus offenen Survey-Antworten extrahiert. In einem z...
Article
Die Ausgestaltung von Wahlsystemen ist eine zentrale Frage jeder repräsentativen Demokratie. Es besteht weitgehender Konsens darüber, dass Wahlsysteme nicht sämtliche normativ wünschenswerten Eigenschaften gleichzeitig erfüllen können. Welche Zielfunktionen durch ein Wahlsystem erfüllt werden sollen, ist daher eine regelmäßig in Politik und Wissens...
Chapter
We discuss how legislative voting patterns are affected by different types of governments. The analysis relies on a novel data set containing complete voting records of all members of the Czech Chamber of Deputies from 1996 to 2013. By employing spatial models, we analyze the positions of parties under formal minority, substantive minority, caretak...
Article
Full-text available
Zusammenfassung Parteiendifferenzen stellen bei bundesländervergleichenden Politikfeldanalysen eine der zentralen Erklärungen dar. Erfasst wird der Effekt, der von unterschiedlichen Positionen auf Politikergebnisse ausgeht, meist über die Regierungsbeteiligung bestimmter Parteien oder über deren Sitzanteil. Aus unserer Sicht ist diese Strategie (zu...
Article
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Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag analysiert das Abstimmungsverhalten im achten Europäischen Parlament (EP) und adressiert zwei Forschungsfragen. Erstens: Welche Konfliktdimensionen prägen das aktuelle EP? Wir zeigen, dass es sich dabei um die Pro-Anti-EU-, weniger um die klassische Links-Rechts-Dichotomie handelt. Zweitens: Wie positionieren sich die Af...
Article
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Which voters prefer having more choice between parties and candidates in an election? To provide an answer to this question, we analyse the case of a radical change from a closed-list PR system to a highly complex open-list PR system with cumulative voting in the German states of Bremen and Hamburg. We argue that the approval of a personalised elec...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Electoral systems are among the most important components of any democratic constitution, since the legitimacy of the electoral system is a precondition for the legitimacy of the electoral outcome and thereby for the stability of a democratic system as such. Public debates about electoral system change, however, are often dominated by the strategic...
Preprint
Full-text available
The patterns and determinants of party competition have been frequently analyzed in comparative political science research. Yet, little is known about party competition at the local level in multi-level democracies. This paper addresses this research gap and provides a twofold contribution to the literature. First, we present a new data set of more...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Electoral system requires a broad social consensus in order to fulfill its democratic functions. This study therefore asks citizens the question of which electoral system they prefer. Specifically, we rely on a representative conjoint experiment conducted in Germany during the Federal Election of 2017 in which voters were asked to choose between tw...
Article
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Existing research suggests that European Union (EU) member states are increasingly able to act in concert in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Based on several hundred coordination meetings per year, the EU 'speaks with one voice' on most of the resolutions voted upon in the UNGA. However, little is known about instances where the EU memb...
Article
Research on the impact of gender quotas in open-list proportional representation systems has described quotas as ineffective or even paradoxical. While some authors argue that gender quotas without a placement mandate will be essentially ineffective since most women will be nominated to unpromising positions, others suppose that women will be disad...
Article
Research on the impact of gender quotas in open-list proportional representation (PR) systems has described quotas as ineffective or even paradoxical. While some authors argue that gender quotas without a placement mandate will be essentially ineffective since most women will be nominated to unpromising positions, others suppose that women will be...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Die Ausgestaltung des Wahlsystems ist einer der einflussreichsten Faktoren politischer Systeme. Es besteht weitgehender Konsens darin, dass Wahlsysteme nicht sämtliche normativ wünschenswerten Eigenschaften gleichzeitig realisieren können. Welche Zielfunktionen durch ein Wahlsystem erfüllt werden sollen, ist daher eine regelmäßig in Politik und Wis...
Chapter
Taking advantage of recent progress in simulation techniques, this study replicates and extends previous research on social heterogeneity and choice failure under Condorcet and Borda. The simulation results can be summarized in three points: First, under a uniform distribution of preference profiles (Impartial Culture, IC), Borda is less likely to...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This article analyzes conceptualizations of the terms "left" and "right" among parliamentary candidates in a multi-party system. Theoretically, we differentiate between the spatial theory of voting and semantic approaches in the field of political theory to explain how candidates provide meanings to these terms. By combining insights from both appr...
Article
Full-text available
Do different types of preferential-list PR systems create different incentives for how Members of Parliament vote? To examine this, we compare the quasi-list system of Poland, where only preference votes determine which candidates win seats, to the flexible-list system in the Czech Republic, where the 5 percent preference vote threshold required to...
Article
In a recent contribution to Party Politics, Kostadinova and Mikulska analyze women’s political representation by populist parties in Poland and Bulgaria. The presented findings for Poland suggest that the main right-wing populist party PiS (1) elected more women to parliament, (2) nominated more women to promising ballot positions, and (3) that vot...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Taking advantage of recent progress in simulation techniques, this study replicates and extends previous research on social heterogeneity and choice failure under Condorcet and Borda. The simulation results can be summarized in three points: First, under a uniform distribution of preference profiles (Impartial culture, IC), Borda is less likely to...
Chapter
Das Kapitel skizziert den Kontext des Wahlkampfes zur Bundestagswahl 2013 und stellt die Wahl in einen historischen Vergleich. Als wichtige institutionelle Neuerung wird die Veränderung des Wahlrechts vor der Bundestagswahl 2013 beschrieben. Außerdem werden die Wahlbeteiligung, das Wahlergebnis sowie die Parteien- und Kandidatenkonstellation währen...
Article
In this article, we compare the European Union's (EU's) voting cohesion in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to other regional organizations like the African Union, the Arab League, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the Caribbean Community, the Economic Community of West African States and the Mercado Común del Sur by using a nov...
Article
The new electoral law in the state of Hamburg, which was first used in the 2011 elections for the state parliament, abolished the optional overall list vote in the electoral districts and thus forced voters to cast preference votes for individual candidates. Supporters of the new electoral law assume that voters will inform themselves better about...
Article
Research Highlights and Abstract This article Offers a refined research design for analysing voting cohesion in the United Nations General Assembly; Demonstrates that ASEAN's integration process is unlikely to explain the observed high level of voting cohesion in Pacific Asia; Specifies the ASEAN-China and ASEAN-Japan alignment; Shows that the alig...

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Projects (3)
Project
The Local Manifesto Project (LMP) collects and analyzes parties' electoral manifestos to gain new insights into the structure and dynamics of local party competition. Our work is inspired by similar projects which have analyzed party manifestos at the national and regional level. Analyzing local party manifestos is particularly important as we lack systematic and comparable information about party competition at the local level. The analysis of local party manifestos can be a solution to this lack of data. LMP can be found online: www.localpartymanifestos.de On this webpage you can access and directly analyze the current text corpus. We have collected more than 800 local party manifestos from local elections in Germany. Some of these manifestos date back to 1990, but most manifestos come from elections in the 2000s. Moreover all manifestos come from large cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants. The text corpus will be constantly updated as new manifestos are collected for each upcoming local election. This app offers three main methods for analyzing the text corpus. First, you can apply the two most common text scaling approaches, namely Wordscores (Laver et al. 2003) and Wordfish (Slapin and Proksch 2008). These approaches try to extract latent dimensions from texts and thus position each document on one (or more) dimension. Therefore, text scaling allows to address the question of which dimensions structure local party competition. Second, you can analyze the manifestos based on topic modeling techniques (Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA); Blei et al. 2003). In contrast to text scaling techniques, topic models provide more insights into the different issues that are addressed in a certain text. This means by running a topic model analysis you can identify different issues that are discussed in a text. These topics can be analyzed in more detail by, for example, comparing which parties speak more often about a certain topic. Finally, the app allows analyzing local party manifestos more simply by searching for certain keywords within manifestos. You can also run a 'Keywords in Context' analysis which shows you words that appear around a certain keyword.
Project
With the growing electoral success of RWPPs, the question of how mainstream parties react to this challenge has become more and more important. We focus on whether the issue strategies of mainstream parties adapt to those of RWPPs and examine the case of the AfD, the SPD and the CDU/CSU in the German states.