Michael Irvine

Michael Irvine
BC Children's Hospital Research Institute · Clinical Research Support Unit

MSci, MSc, PhD

About

86
Publications
8,661
Reads
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1,234
Citations
Citations since 2017
78 Research Items
1215 Citations
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Introduction
Biostatistical lead for the Clinical Support Unit at BC Children's Hospital. Interested in Bayesian analysis, prediction modelling, and mathematical modelling
Additional affiliations
October 2016 - present
University of British Columbia - Vancouver
Position
  • PostDoc Position
Description
  • Detailed modelling of HIV spread among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in Canada.
January 2015 - September 2016
The University of Warwick
Position
  • PostDoc Position

Publications

Publications (86)
Preprint
Full-text available
The outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 started in Wuhan, China, towards the end of 2019 and spread worldwide. The rapid spread of the disease can be attributed to many factors including its high infectiousness and the high rate of human mobility around the world. Although travel/movement restrictions and other non-pharm...
Article
Background: The evolving proportion of the population considered immunologically naive versus primed for more efficient immune memory response to SARS-CoV-2 has implications for risk assessment. We sought to chronicle vaccine- and infection-induced seroprevalence across the first 7 waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in British Columbia, Canada. Metho...
Article
Full-text available
IntroductionOverdose events related to illicit opioids and other substances are a public health crisis in Canada. The BC Provincial Overdose Cohort is a collection of linked datasets identifying drug-related toxicity events, including death, ambulance, emergency room, hospital, and physician records. The datasets were brought together to understand...
Preprint
Background: We chronicle SARS-CoV-2 sero-prevalence through eight cross-sectional sero-surveys (snapshots) in the Lower Mainland (Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley), British Columbia, Canada from March 2020 to August 2022. Methods: Anonymized-residual sera were obtained from children and adults attending an outpatient laboratory network. Sera wer...
Article
Full-text available
We prospectively studied SARS-CoV-2 transmission at schools in an era of variants of concern, offering all close contacts serial viral asymptomatic testing up to 14 days. From the 69 primary cases detected in schools, 392 close contacts were identified and offered asymptomatic testing. A total of 229 (58%) were close school contacts, and of these,...
Preprint
Objective To determine the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among school workers in the setting of full in-person schooling and the highly transmissible Omicron variants of concern. Design Cross-sectional study among school staff, comparing to period-, age-, sex- and postal code-weighted data from Canadian blood donors from the same community. Setting T...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives Few studies reported COVID-19 cases in schools during the 2020/21 academic year in a setting of uninterrupted in-person schooling. The main objective was to determine the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among school staff in Vancouver public schools. Design Cumulative incident COVID-19 cases among all students and school staff based on public...
Article
Full-text available
Following the emergence of COVID-19 at the end of 2019, several mathematical models have been developed to study the transmission dynamics of this disease. Many of these models assume homogeneous mixing in the underlying population. However, contact rates and mixing patterns can vary dramatically among individuals depending on their age and activit...
Article
Purpose Interpersonal interaction between infectious and uninfected individuals facilitates the spread of COVID-19. Physical distancing measures could prevent COVID-19 transmission by reducing the contacts among individuals in the population. In this study, we describe contact rates of residents of British Columbia, Canada to assess the impact of C...
Article
Purpose Several non-pharmaceutical interventions such as physical distancing, self-isolation, a stay-at-home order, hand washing, and schools and businesses closures were implemented in British Columbia (BC) following the first lab-tested case of COVID-19 on January 26, 2020. These interventions were aimed at minimizing in-person contacts that coul...
Preprint
Background Pregnant individuals have been receiving COVID-19 vaccines following pre-authorization clinical trials in non-pregnant people. This study aimed to determine significant health events amongst pregnant females after COVID-19 vaccination, compared with unvaccinated pregnant controls and vaccinated non-pregnant individuals. Methods Study pa...
Article
Full-text available
Background The US overdose crisis is driven by fentanyl, heroin, and prescription opioids. One evidence-based policy response has been to broaden naloxone distribution, but how much naloxone a community would need to reduce the incidence of fatal overdose is unclear. We aimed to estimate state-level US naloxone need in 2017 across three main naloxo...
Article
Introduction: Histologic diagnosis of eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) involves peak eosinophil counts (PEC) being greater than 15 per high power field. The EoE Histology Scoring System (EoEHSS) was developed to comprehensively evaluate biopsies to better predict symptom and endoscopy response; we aimed to validate the EoEHSS in our provincial regis...
Article
Full-text available
Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R 0) for COVID-19 are particularly variable in the context of transmission within locations such as long-term healthcare (LTHC) facilities. We sought to characterize the heterogeneity of R 0 across known outbreaks within these facilities. We used a unique comprehensive dataset of all outbreaks that occurr...
Article
Purpose: Urine sodium (UNa) is a measure of total body sodium in infants with intestinal failure (IF) but can be misleading as it does not reflect volume status. Urine sodium to urine creatinine ratio (UNa:UCr) may offer a more accurate measure, but is not routinely used. This study compares UNa:UCr to UNa as a maker of sodium status in infants wit...
Preprint
We prospectively studied SARS-CoV-2 transmission at schools in an era of Variants of Concern (VoCs), offering all close contacts serial viral asymptomatic testing up to 14 days. Of 229 school close contacts, 3 tested positive (1.3%), of which 2 were detected through asymptomatic testing. Most secondary transmission (90%) occurred in households. Rou...
Article
Full-text available
We evaluated families’ perspectives on the usability of virtual visits for routine gender care for trans youth during the COVID-19 pandemic. An online survey, which included a validated telehealth usability questionnaire, was sent to families who had a virtual Gender Clinic visit between March and August 2020. A total of 87 participants completed t...
Preprint
Full-text available
Following the emergence of COVID-19 at the end of 2019, several mathematical models have been developed to study the transmission dynamics of this disease. Many of these models assume homogeneous mixing in the underlying population. However, contact rates and mixing patterns can vary dramatically among individuals depending on their age and activit...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background With the return of in-person classes, an understanding of COVID-19 transmission in vaccinated university campuses is essential. Given the context of high anticipated vaccination rates and other measures, there are outstanding questions of the potential impact of campus-based asymptomatic screening. Methods We estimated the expected numb...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Prenatal exposure to serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SRI) antidepressants increases risk for adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes, yet little is known about whether effects are present before birth. In relation to maternal SRI pharmacokinetics, this study investigated chronic and acute effects of prenatal SRI exposure on third-trimester fe...
Preprint
Full-text available
Importance: Contact-tracing studies suggest minimal secondary transmission in schools. However, there are limited school data accounting for asymptomatic cases, particularly late in the 2020/21 school year, and in the context of uninterrupted in-person schooling and widespread community transmission. Objectives: To determine the SARS-CoV-2 seroprev...
Article
Full-text available
Pre-existing cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 may occur in absence of prior viral exposure. However, this has been difficult to quantify at the population level due to a lack of reliably defined seroreactivity thresholds. Using an orthogonal antibody testing approach, we estimated that ~0.6% of non-triaged adults from the greater Vancouver area, Cana...
Article
Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on pediatric emergency department (PED) visits after declaration of stay-at-home orders within British Columbia, Canada, and the change in cases by acuity and age for 6 months during the pandemic. Methods: Retrospective data on PED visits a...
Article
Full-text available
Introduction Parapneumonic effusion and empyema are common complications of paediatric pneumonia. Acceptable treatment modalities for large parapneumonic effusions include antibiotics alone or in conjunction with surgical interventions. Clear guidelines on the best treatment approach are lacking and mostly based on evidence prior to widespread pneu...
Preprint
Full-text available
Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are particularly variable in the context of transmission within locations such as long-term health care (LTHC) facilities. We sought to characterise the heterogeneity of R 0 across known outbreaks within these facilities. We used a unique comprehensive dataset...
Preprint
Full-text available
BACKGROUND Simple visualizations in health research data, such as scatter plots, heat maps and bar charts typically present relationships between two variables. Interactive visualization methods allow for multiple related facets, such as multiple risk factors, to be studied simultaneously, leading to data insights through exploring trends and patte...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Simple visualizations in health research data, such as scatter plots, heat maps, and bar charts, typically present relationships between 2 variables. Interactive visualization methods allow for multiple related facets such as numerous risk factors to be studied simultaneously, leading to data insights through exploring trends and patte...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) can be used in STI testing environments to prioritize individuals at highest risk of infection and optimize resource allocation. We previously derived a CPR to predict asymptomatic chlamydia and/or gonorrhea (CT/NG) infection among women and heterosexual men at in-person STI clinics based on five predic...
Article
Introduction Opioid agonist treatment (OAT) is a safe and effective treatment for opioid use disorder (OUD). However, people commonly stop and start OAT and their risk of death is high immediately after stopping. The prevalence of illicitly manufactured fentanyl and other highly potent synthetic opioids have increased in the illicit drug supply glo...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Visual analytics (VA) promotes the understanding of data with visual, interactive techniques, using analytic and visual engines. The analytic engine includes automated techniques, whereas common visual outputs include flow maps and spatiotemporal hot spots. Objective: This scoping review aims to address a gap in the literature, with the...
Article
Full-text available
Extensive non-pharmaceutical and physical distancing measures are currently the primary interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. It is therefore urgent to estimate the impact such measures are having. We introduce a Bayesian epidemiological model in which a proportion of individuals are willing and able to participate in...
Article
Background An epidemic of opioid overdose has spread across North America, with illicit drug-related overdose emerging as a leading cause of death in recent years. Estimates of opioid use disorder (OUD) prevalence at the level of the public health service delivery area are needed to project resource needs and identify priority areas for targeted in...
Article
Introduction In Canada, individuals test for HIV commonly through clinic-based screening services (CBSS). However, gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) may face barriers accessing such services due to, for example, feeling discomfort disclosing their sexual history or fearing judgment from healthcare providers. To reduce barrie...
Article
Full-text available
Objective There is limited information on the severity of COVID-19 infection in children with comorbidities. We investigated the effects of pediatric comorbidities on COVID-19 severity by means of a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature. Methods PubMed, Embase, and Medline databases were searched for publications on pediatric...
Article
Background Public health mitigation strategies in British Columbia during the pandemic included stay-at-home orders and closure of non-essential services. While most primary physicians’ offices were closed, hospitals prepared for a pandemic surge and emergency departments (EDs) stayed open to provide care for urgent needs. We sought to determine wh...
Article
Background Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection is a major cause of malignancy worldwide. Maternal antibody is thought to prevent EBV infection because it is uncommon in early infancy. Maternal HIV infection is associated with an increased incidence of EBV infection in exposed infants, which we hypothesized results from impaired transfer of EBV-neutr...
Article
Full-text available
The global decline in prevalence of lymphatic filariasis has been one of the major successes of the WHO’s NTD programme. The recommended strategy of intensive, community-wide mass drug administration, aims to break localised transmission by either reducing the prevalence of microfilaria positive infections to below 1%, or antigen positive infection...
Article
Objectives: There is limited data on MID in children. This study aimed to compare the demographic and clinical characteristics of 1) a historical MID cohort to a new cohort and 2) children with MID based on overweight/obese BMI (O-BMI) and normal weight BMI (N-BMI). Methods: National surveillance was conducted via the CPSP. Pediatric clinicians rep...
Article
Full-text available
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities house thousands of undocumented immigrants in environments discordant with the public health recommendations to reduce the transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Using ICE detainee population data obtained from the ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) website as of March...
Preprint
Full-text available
Extensive physical distancing measures are currently the primary intervention against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. It is therefore urgent to estimate the impact such measures are having. We introduce a Bayesian epidemiological model in which a proportion of individuals are willing and able to participate in distancing measures, wi...
Article
Full-text available
Objective To compare the risk of mortality among people with opioid use disorder on and off opioid agonist treatment (OAT) in a setting with a high prevalence of illicitly manufactured fentanyl and other potent synthetic opioids in the illicit drug supply. Design Population based retrospective cohort study. Setting Individual level linkage of fiv...
Article
Full-text available
Complex, highly-computational, individual-based models are abundant in epidemiology. For epidemics such as macro-parasitic diseases, detailed modelling of human behaviour and pathogen life-cycle are required in order to produce accurate results. This can often lead to models that are computationally-expensive to analyse and perform model fitting, a...
Preprint
BACKGROUND Visual analytics promotes the understanding of data with visual, interactive techniques, using ‘analytic’ and ‘visual’ engines. The analytic engine includes machine learning and other automated techniques, while common visual outputs include flow maps and spatiotemporal hotspots for studying service gaps and disease distribution. The pri...
Article
The province of British Columbia is currently experiencing the highest rate of apparent opioid-related deaths within Canada. This dramatic increase in overdose deaths has been primarily driven by the increase of fentanyl and fentanyl-analogues within the unregulated, highly unpredictable and toxic street drug supply. A public health emergency was d...
Article
Full-text available
ATG is an established approach to decrease chronic GvHD (cGvHD), yet the exact mechanism is uncertain. To better understand the mechanism of action of ATG in preventing cGvHD we evaluated the day 100 immune reconstitution of known cGvHD cellular biomarkers utilizing patients from the randomized CBMTG 0801 trial which demonstrated a significant impa...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Visual analytics (VA) promotes the understanding of data using visual, interactive techniques and using analytic and visual engines. The analytic engine includes machine learning and other automated techniques, whereas common visual outputs include flow maps and spatiotemporal hotspots for studying service gaps and disease distribution....
Article
Full-text available
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has the potential to greatly reduce transmission of HIV. However, significant questions remain around how behavioural factors may influence its impact within target populations. We used a 2014 sexual behaviour survey to modify and recalibrate a mathematical model of HIV infection dynamics within the population of gay...
Conference Paper
Background Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) estimate the probability of a health outcome to support decision-making in intervention and service delivery. Previously, a CPR was derived to maximize detection of chlamydia and/or gonorrhea (CT/GC) infections and minimize the number of screening tests offered among asymptomatic women and heterosexual me...
Article
Background & aims The province of British Columbia (BC), Canada has experienced a rapid increase in illicit drug overdoses and deaths during the last four years, with a provincial emergency declared in April 2016. These deaths have been driven primarily by the introduction of synthetic opioids into the illicit opioid supply. This study aimed to mea...
Preprint
Full-text available
Complex, highly computational, individual-based models are abundant in epidemiology. For epidemics such as macro-parasitic diseases, detailed modelling of human behaviour and pathogen life-cycle are required in order to produce accurate results. This can often lead to models that are computationally-expensive to analyse and perform model fitting, a...
Article
Full-text available
Background: With the 2020 target year for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) approaching, there is an urgent need to assess how long mass drug administration (MDA) programs with annual ivermectin + albendazole (IA) or diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) would still have to be continued, and how elimination can be accelerated. We addressed...
Article
Full-text available
Fitting complex models to epidemiological data is a challenging problem: methodologies can be inaccessible to all but specialists, there may be challenges in adequately describing uncertainty in model fitting, the complex models may take a long time to run, and it can be difficult to fully capture the heterogeneity in the data. We develop an adapti...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Illicit use of high-potency synthetic opioids has become a global issue over the past decade. This misuse is particularly pronounced in British Columbia, Canada, where a rapid increase in availability of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids in the local illicit drug supply during 2016 led to a substantial increase in overdoses and death...
Article
Full-text available
Increasing HIV testing rates among high-risk groups should lead to increased numbers of cases being detected. Coupled with effective treatment and behavioural change among individuals with detected infection, increased testing should also reduce onward incidence of HIV in the population. However, it can be difficult to predict the strengths of thes...
Article
Full-text available
It is well known that individuals in the same community can be exposed to a highly variable number of mosquito bites. This heterogeneity in bite exposure has consequences for the control of vector-borne diseases because a few people may be contributing significantly to transmission. However, very few studies measure sources of heterogeneity in a wa...
Article
Full-text available
As climate change and other anthropogenic factors increase the uncertainty of vegetation ecosystem persistence, the ability to rapidly assess their dynamics is paramount. Vegetation and sessile communities form a variety of striking regular spatial patterns such as stripes, spots and labyrinths, that have been used as indicators of ecosystem curren...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Early HIV diagnosis reduces morbidity, mortality, the probability of onward transmission, and their associated costs, but might increase cost because of earlier initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We investigated this trade-off by estimating the cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in primary care. Methods: We modelled the e...