Michael T. Coe

• PhD
• Director at Woodwell Climate Research Center

Deforestation not only contributes to global warming but also induces changes in the regional climates that impact agriculture. Here, we analyse the effects of deforestation-induced climate change on the soy–maize double cropping of the Cerrado biome. Since the 1980s, there has been an average delay of 36 days in the start of the agricultural rainy...

Soil moisture is a crucial variable mediating soil‐vegetation‐atmosphere water exchange. As climate and land use change, the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and disturbances will likely alter feedbacks between ecosystem functions and soil moisture. In this study, we evaluated how extreme drought (2015/2016) and postfire...

Brazil emerged as an agricultural powerhouse in the last four decades, producing 33% of the world’s soybeans and 14% of its beef. Historically, much of that growth has come at the expense of its native ecosystems. A growing body of work suggests this paradigm is outdated and brings negative social and environmental outcomes. Here, we provide an int...

Tropical ecosystems store over half of the world’s aboveground live carbon as biomass, and water availability plays a key role in its distribution. Although precipitation and temperature are shifting across the tropics, their effect on biomass and carbon storage remains uncertain. Here we use empirical relationships between climate and aboveground...

The Amazon biome is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer be possible. This degradation is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impac...

The Amazon River basin harbors some of the world's largest wetland complexes, which are of major importance for biodiversity, the water cycle and climate, and human activities. Accurate estimates of inundation extent and its variations across spatial and temporal scales are therefore fundamental to understand and manage the basin's resources. More...

The Brazilian Cerrado is one of the most biodiverse savannas in the world, yet 46% of its original cover has been cleared to make way for crops and pastures. These extensive land-use transitions (LUTs) are expected to influence regional climate by reducing evapotranspiration (ET), increasing land surface temperature (LST), and ultimately reducing p...

This Report provides a comprehensive, objective, open, transparent, systematic, and rigorous scientific assessment of the state of the Amazon’s ecosystems, current trends, and their implications for the long-term well-being of the region, as well as opportunities and policy relevant options for conservation and sustainable development.

Climate policy has thus far focused solely on carbon stocks and sequestration to evaluate the potential of forests to mitigate global warming. These factors are used to assess the impacts of different drivers of deforestation and forest degradation as well as alternative forest management. However, when forest cover, structure and composition chang...

Science Panel for the Amazon, Chapter 23. In: Amazon Assessment Report 2021

Brazil’s leadership in soybean and maize production depends on predictable rainfall in the Amazon-Cerrado agricultural frontier. Here we assess whether agricultural expansion and intensification in the region are approaching a climatic limit to rainfed production. We show that yields decline in years with unusually low rainfall or high aridity duri...

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer use is rapidly intensifying on tropical croplands and has the potential to increase emissions of the greenhouse gas, nitrous oxide (N2O). Since about 2005 Mato Grosso (MT), Brazil has shifted from single-cropped soybeans to double-cropping soybeans with maize, and now produces 1.5% of the world's maize. This production shift...

The Caspian Sea (CS) is the largest inland lake in the world. Large variations in sea level and surface area occurred in the past and are projected for the future. The potential impacts on regional and large‐scale hydroclimate are not well understood. Here, we examine the impact of CS area on climate within its catchment and across the northern hem...

Supplementary information for "Impacts of Variations in Caspian Sea Surface Area on Catchment-Scale and Large-Scale Climate."

The Amazon biome, despite its resilience, is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer possible. This is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. In this paper, we develop scenarios that represent movemen...

Carbon losses from forest degradation and disturbances are significant and growing sources of emissions in the Brazilian Amazon. Between 2003 and 2019, degradation and disturbance accounted for 44% of forest carbon losses in the region, compared with 56% from deforestation (forest clearing). We found that land tenure played a decisive role in expla...

• The amplitude, duration, frequency, and predictability of runoff and inundation of aquatic habitats are key hydrological characteristics linked to aquatic ecosystem functioning and biodiversity, but they are seldom integrated into analyses of Amazon floodplain ecology. Remote sensing approaches, measurements and modelling of floodplain hydrology...

Study region The study region is the Amazon River Basin, which controls globally important water and energy fluxes. Study focus In the face of a changing climate and landscape, it is critical that we understand how, where, and why surface water resources are changing. Specifically, we must consider holistic changes to the water cycle to understand...

Since the early 1970s, the agricultural frontier of southeastern Amazon has undergone extensive land use changes. These alterations, combined with regional climate changes, have the potential to influence the hydrologic cycle at small to large scales. We evaluated a 40-year time series (1976 to 2015) of rainfall and water yield and related them to...

The Amazon forest’s main protection against fire is its capacity to create a moist understory microclimate. Roads, deforestation, droughts, and climate change have made this natural firebreak less effective. The southern Amazon, in particular, has become more flammable and vulnerable to wildfires during recent droughts. The drought of 1997/98 first...

This work is focused on characterizing and understanding the aboveground biomass of Caatinga in a semiarid region in northeastern Brazil. The quantification of Caatinga biomass is limited by the small number of field plots, which are inadequate for addressing the biome’s extreme heterogeneity. Satellite-derived biomass products can address spatial...

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) account for one-third of the interannual variability of global net primary productive (NPP). Large-scale shifts in dry tropical forest structure may thus significantly affect global CO2 fluxes in ways that are not fully accounted for in current projections. This study quantifies how changing climate might res...

Landsat 5 has produced imagery for decades that can now be viewed and manipulated in Google Earth Engine, but a general, automated way of producing a coherent time series from these images—particularly over cloudy areas in the distant past—is elusive. Here, we create a land use and land cover (LULC) time series for part of tropical Mato Grosso, Bra...

Droughts can exert a strong influence on the regional energy balance of the Amazon and Cerrado, as can the replacement of native vegetation by croplands. What remains unclear is how these two forcing factors interact and whether land cover changes fundamentally alter the sensitivity of the energy balance components to drought events. To fill this g...

Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas–driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO 2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional...

Brazil has become an agricultural powerhouse, producing roughly 30 % of the world's soy and 15 % of its beef by 2013-yet historically much of that growth has come at the expense of its native ecosystems. Since 1985, pastures and croplands have replaced nearly 65 Mha of forests and savannas in the legal Amazon. A growing body of work suggests that t...

In southern Amazonia, more than half of all cropland is devoted to the production of two rainfed crops per year, an agricultural practice known as “double cropping” (DC). Climate change, including feedbacks between changes in land use and the local climate, is shortening the extent of the historical rainy season in southern Amazonia, increasing the...

Drought, fire, and windstorms can interact to degrade tropical forests and the ecosystem services they provide, but how these forests recover after catastrophic disturbance events remains relatively unknown. Here, we analyze multi-year measurements of vegetation dynamics and function (fluxes of CO2 and H2 O) in forests recovering from 7 years of co...

Tropical woody plants store ∼230 petagrams of carbon (PgC) in their aboveground living biomass. This review suggests that these stocks are currently growing in primary forests at rates that have decreased in recent decades. Droughts are an important mechanism in reducing forest C uptake and stocks by decreasing photosynthesis, elevating tree mortal...

The benefits nature provides to people, called ecosystem services, are increasingly recognized and accounted for in assessments of infrastructure development, agricultural management, conservation prioritization, and sustainable sourcing. These assessments are often limited by data, however, a gap with tremendous potential to be filled through Eart...

en This article presents a 21st Century agenda for Amazonian conservation. The agenda calls for developing a system of refugia and a scientific methodology for predicting impacts of the infrastructure development vision for the region. It also calls for a collaborative approach to conservation planning, in the interest of fruitful engagement with d...

We coupled the hydrologic routing and flood dynamics model Terrestrial Hydrology Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB) to the Integrated LAND Surface Model (INLAND) and compared simulations of discharge and flood extent area against gauge station and satellite-based information in the Amazon Basin. The coupled model represents well the seasonality of t...

Remote sensing is undergoing a fundamental paradigm shift, in which approaches interpreting one or two images are giving way to a wide array of data-rich applications. These include assessing global forest loss, tracking water resources across Earth’s surface, determining disturbance frequency across decades, and many more. These advances have been...

Agricultural intensifcation ofers potential to grow more food while reducing the conversion of native ecosystems to croplands. However, intensifcation also risks environmental degradation through emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitrate leaching to ground and surface waters. Intensively-managed croplands and nitrogen (N) fert...

We performed a Water Footprint Sustainability Assessment (WFSA) in the Xingu Basin of Mato Grosso (XBMT), Brazil, with the objectives of (1) tracking blue (as surface water) and green water (as soil moisture regenerated by precipitation) consumption in recent years (2000, 2014); and (2) evaluating agricultural intensification options for future yea...

Over the past three decades, large tracts of tropical forests have been converted to crop and pasturelands across southern Amazonia, largely to meet the increasing worldwide demand for protein. As the world’s population continue to grow and consume more protein per capita, forest conversion to grow more crops could be a potential solution to meet s...

Amazon droughts directly increase forest flammability by increasing air dryness and reducing fuel moisture. These droughts also increase forest flammability indirectly by decreasing soil moisture, which triggers leaf shedding, branch losses, and tree mortality – all of which contribute to increased fuel loads. These direct and indirect effects can...

Large-scale commercial cropping of soybeans expanded in the tropical Amazon and Cerrado biomes of Brazil after 1990. More recently, cropping intensified from single-cropping of soybeans to double-cropping of soybeans with corn or cotton. Cropland expansion and intensification, and the accompanying use of mineral fertilizers, raise concerns about wh...

The role of tropical forests in climate is most often expressed in terms of the carbon they keep out of the atmosphere if deforestation is avoided or the carbon they remove from the atmosphere as they grow. The direct role of forests, particularly in the tropics, in maintaining low surface temperatures and relatively high precipitation has been und...

The Ponto-Caspian basin is one of the largest basins globally, composed of a closed basin (Caspian Sea) and open basins connecting to the global ocean (Black and Azov Sea). Over the historical time period (1850-present) Caspian Sea levels have varied between −25 and −29mbsl (Arpe et al., 2012), resulting in considerable changes to the area of the l...

The Amazon basin is the planet’s largest and most intense land-based centre of precipitation. This convective system is driven by high net surface radiation, which is dissipated via fluxes of latent heat and sensible heat. Over the long term (1 year or greater), incoming precipitation over the basin is balanced by evaporative fluxes of water to the...

The Brazilian savanna (known as Cerrado) is an upland biome made up of various vegetation types from herbaceous to arboreal. In this paper, MODIS remote sensing vegetation greenness from the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and evapotranspiration (ET) data for the 2000–2012 period were analyzed to understand the differences in the net primary produc...

The Amazon Basin is a region of global importance for the carbon and hydrological cycles, a biodiversity hotspot, and a potential centre for future economic development. The region is also a major source of water vapour recycled into continental precipitation through evapotranspiration processes. This review applies an ecohydrological approach to A...

Brazil faces an enormous challenge to implement its revised Forest Code. Despite big losses for the environment, the law introduces new mechanisms to facilitate compliance and foster payment for ecosystem services (PES). The most promising of these is a market for trading forest certificates (CRAs) that allows landowners to offset their restoration...

All SI figures and SI tables. (PDF)

Biomass map and list of inholdings. (ZIP)

Historically, conservation-oriented research and policy in Brazil have focused on Amazon deforestation, but a majority of Brazil's deforestation and agricultural expansion has occurred in the neighboring Cerrado biome, a biodiversity hotspot comprised of dry forests, woodland savannas, and grasslands. Resilience of rainfed agriculture in both biome...

The Amazon Basin is a region of global importance for the carbon and hydrological cycles, a biodiversity hotspot, and a potential centre for future economic development. The region is also a major source of water vapour recycled into continental precipitation through evapotranspiration processes. This review applies an ecohydrological approach to A...

More than 600,000 km 2 of tropical forests have been cleared in this century alone. The Earth's future climate and the well-being of its people will depend on how much of the remaining forest receives permanent protection. Tropical forests store 230 billion tons of carbon. Each year they absorb over 1 billion tons of carbon from the atmosphere, mor...

Global changes and associated droughts, heat waves, logging activities, and forest fragmentation may intensify fires in Amazonia by altering forest microclimate and fuel dynamics. To isolate the effects of fuel loads on fire behavior and fire-induced changes in forest carbon cycling, we manipulated fine fuel loads in a fire experiment located in so...

The Amazonian tropical evergreen forest is an important component of the global carbon budget. Its forest floristic composition, structure and function are sensitive to changes in climate, atmospheric composition and land use. In this study biomass and productivity simulated by three DGVMs (IBIS, ED2 and JULES) for the period 1970–2008 are compared...

Tropical deforestation changes the surface energy balance and water cycle, but how much change occurs strongly depends on the land uses that follow deforestation. Here, we quantify how recent (2000–2010) transitions among widespread land uses (i.e., forests, croplands, and pastures) altered the water and energy balance in the Xingu region of southe...

The interaction between droughts and land-use fires threaten the carbon stocks, climate regulatory functions, and biodiversity of Amazon forests, particularly in the southeast, where deforestation and land-use ignitions are high. Repeated, severe, or combined fires and droughts result in tropical forest degradation via nonlinear dynamics and may le...

Study region: Upper Xingu River Basin, southeastern Amazonia. Study focus: This study assessed the influence of land cover changes on evapotranspiration and streamflow in small catchments in the Upper Xingu River Basin (Mato Grosso state, Brazil). Streamflow was measured in catchments with uniform land use for September 1, 2008 to August 31, 2010....

Deforestation reduced forest cover in Brazil’s Xingu River Basin (XB; area: 510,000 km2) from 90% of the basin in the 1970s to 75% in the 2000s. Such large-scale land cover changes can substantially alter regional water budgets, but their influence can be difficult to isolate from that of natural climate variability. In this study, we estimate chan...

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, on-going land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental fo...

Background/Question/Methods The surface waters of the Brazilian Amazon now face pressures from human activities that are unprecedented in the region's history. These pressures come primarily from deforestation to expand agriculture and cattle ranching. Since 2000, expansion of soybean croplands has become an important driver of land-use change in...

Roughly 53% of Brazil’s native vegetation occurs on private properties. Native forests and savannahs on these lands store 105 ± 21 GtCO2e (billion tons of CO2 equivalents) and play a vital role in maintaining a broad range of ecosystem services. Sound management of these private landscapes is critical if global efforts to mitigate climate change ar...

Significance Climate change alone is unlikely to drive severe tropical forest degradation in the next few decades, but an alternative process associated with severe weather and forest fires is already operating in southeastern Amazonia. Recent droughts caused greatly elevated fire-induced tree mortality in a fire experiment and widespread regional...

Forests, through the regulation of regional water balances, provide a number of ecosystem services, including water for agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, navigation, industry, fisheries, and human consumption. Large-scale deforestation triggers complex non-linear interactions between the atmosphere and biosphere, which may impair such im...

Protected areas and other anti-deforestation policies in the Brazilian Amazon are well known for their role in conserving biodiversity and sequestering carbon. Their impact on the provision of other ecosystem services is less well known. Protected areas established under the Amazon Protected Areas Program (ARPA), launched by the Brazilian governmen...

The hydrological connectivity of freshwater ecosystems in the Amazon basin makes them highly sensitive to a broad range of anthropogenic activities occurring in aquatic and terrestrial systems at local and distant locations. Amazon freshwater ecosystems are suffering escalating impacts caused by expansions in deforestation, pollution, construction...

The papers in this special issue address a major challenge facing our society: feeding a population that is simultaneously growing and increasing its per capita food consumption, while preventing widespread ecological and social impoverishment in the tropics. By focusing mostly on the Amazon's most dynamic agricultural frontier, Mato Grosso, they c...

Large-scale cattle and crop production are the primary drivers of deforestation in the Amazon today. Such land-use changes can degrade stream ecosystems by reducing connectivity, changing light and nutrient inputs, and altering the quantity and quality of streamwater. This study integrates field data from 12 catchments with satellite-derived inform...

A mosaic of protected areas, including indigenous lands, sustainable-use production forests and reserves and strictly protected forests is the cornerstone of conservation in the Amazon, with almost 50 per cent of the region now protected. However, recent research indicates that isolation from direct deforestation or degradation may not be sufficien...