Mercy Ngungu

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• Doctor of Philosophy Mathematical Statistics
• Senior Research Specialist at Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC)

In this paper, based on the model proposed by Gumel, Moghadas and Mickens, which monitors the impact of live attenuated HIV vaccines, a new method for restoring the unknown data is proposed. Missing data in both epidemiological and ecological surveys and experiments can be due to a number of causes, like, unprovided domains of required data, comple...

Background COVID-19 vaccination rates in South Africa remain low at 51% of the adult population being fully vaccinated, defined as having two shorts of the COVID-19 vaccine with or without a booster. To improve vaccine uptake, a community-based intervention was tested in a high vaccine hesitancy community in South Africa. Trained community youths u...

In this study, a deterministic model for the dynamics of Marburg virus transmission that incorporates the impact of public health education is being formulated and analyzed. The Caputo fractional-order derivative is used to extend the traditional integer model to a fractional-based model. The model’s positivity and boundedness are also under invest...

In this study, a deterministic model for the dynamics of Marburg virus transmission that incorporates the impact of public health education is being formulated and analyzed. The Caputo fractional-order derivative is used to extend the traditional integer model to a fractional-based model. The model’s positivity and boundedness are also under invest...

In the formulation, the existence, uniqueness and stability of solutions and parameter perturbation analysis to Riemann-Liouville fractional differential equations with integro-differential boundary conditions are discussed by the properties of Green's function and cone theory. First, some theorems have been established from standard fixed point th...

In this paper, we investigate a deterministic mathematical model of Marburg–Monkeypox virus co-infection transmission under the Caputo fractional-order derivative. We discussed the dynamics behavior of the model and carried out qualitative and quantitative analysis, including the positivity–boundedness of solution, and the basic reproduction number...

In this study, we examine the impact of vaccination and environmental transmission on the dynamics of the monkeypox. We formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the dynamics of monkeypox virus transmission under Caputo fractional order. We obtain the basic reproduction number, the conditions for the local and global asymptotic stability for t...

In this study, a mathematical model for studying the dynamics of monkeypox virus transmission with non-pharmaceutical intervention is created, examined, and simulated using real-time data. Positiveness, invariance, and boundedness of the solutions are thus examined as fundamental features of mathematical models. The equilibrium points and the prere...

BACKGROUND: People with disabilities are a large, disadvantaged minority, comprising approximately 12% of the population. The South African government has ratified international and regional disability treaties but deals with disability rights within general anti-discrimination legislation. There are no specific frameworks to monitor justice for pe...

The impact of COVID-19 is falling unevenly across the South African population; research quickly revealed how the worst impacts fell along geographic, racial, and gendered lines. A recent study by the Institute for Development Studies (UK), the Human Sciences Research Council, and the National Council of and for Persons with Disabilities on the imp...

Background: Many countries in the world are still struggling to control COVID-19 pandemic. As of April 28, 2020, South Africa reported the highest number of COVID-19 cases in Sub-Sahara Africa. The country took aggressive steps to control the spread of the virus including setting a national command team for COVID-19 and putting the country on a com...

Persons with disabilities constitute one of the largest minorities in society and yet are often highly marginalised. In South Africa, between 12% and 20% of the population older than five years are estimated to have activity-limiting impairments. People may have difficulties with mobility, vision, hearing, communication, cognitive and psychosocial...

During the early months of the global pandemic the international Disability Rights Monitor group survey illustrated the circumstances of persons with disabilities around the world. Gradually literature on the situation for persons with disabilities in sub-Saharan Africa started to emerge. As members of an informal network looking at issues affectin...

We present a class of numerical schemes that are derived from a perturbated interpolant that has a varying order polynomial as the assumed solution to the Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) models on climate change. These numerical integrators are capable of solving problems arising from chemical kinetics, population models, mechanical oscillatio...

Background: Many countries in the world are still struggling to control COVID-19 pandemic. As of April 28, 2020, South Africa reported the highest number of COVID-19 cases in Sub- Sahara Africa. The country took aggressive steps to control the spread of the virus including setting a national command team for COVID-19 and putting the country on a co...

The present paper aims to model, predict, and explain presidential election results using selected quarterly macroeconomic indicators, i.e., gross national product, consumer price index, unemployment rate and gross national product from 1994-2017. We also seek to provide predictions of presidential winner prior to the elections based on the beta di...

Modeling of and predicting incumbent party vote for South Africa national elections

The Electoral Commission of South Africa commissioned the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) to review the ballot paper used in national and provincial elections as well as local government elections in South Africa. The ballot paper represents a critical material component of the electoral process, and its design is instrumental to the success...

We introduce an integral method for state variables and coefficient estimation and apply it to a simplified compartmental ecological model, proposed by Lubuma and Gumel, which monitors the transmission dynamics of Bovine tuberculosis in a buffalo-only population. The method uses integral approaches to linearize the system of equations. The ordinary...

Restoring missing data under missing observable data

Even though, there are a number of methods that have been aimed at preventing and managing, infectious diseases are still a great challenge to both human and animal well-being. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens are key players in the voluntary spread of the infections in ecosystems. There are several ways through which pathogens...

In this work, a reduced model proposed by Lubuma and Gumel for transmission dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Bovine tuberculosis in a community consisting of humans and African buffaloes is considered. The buffalo-only component of the model is however, examined for parameter estimation. The problem is to propose an analytical approach fo...

The Local Government Sector Education and Training Authority (LGSETA) was established in 2000 to facilitate skills development at municipal level across South Africa. Since then the LGSETA has enabled training for thousands of employees of local government, traditional leaders, ward councillors, and unemployed persons to acquire skills through vari...

In this paper the Gumel-Mickens problem is considered, which includes a population of four types: HIV Susceptible, infected-vaccinated and infected-non vaccinated population and uninfected vaccinated population. It is assumed that data on the total population infected vaccinated and infected, and un-vaccinated population is available. It is shown t...

Discusses that In 1890 Bryan observed that a rotating vibrating structure tends to have a vibrating pattern that rotates at a rate proportional to the rate of rotation. This is otherwise known as the Bryan effect. Based on this theory a formula, the so-called "Bryan's factor" was derived to quantify this shift in angular velocity. This study will u...

The game of Mancala/Awale/Awari has been dominated by supervised machine learning techniques. This paper investigates unsupervised machine learning techniques that have been used to evolve Awale game players and the results obtained from the techniques.

The authors discuss hindsight bias and conforming evidence and how they affect research. Research findings are often assumed to be valid. However, authors warn of making hasty conclusions based on very little evidence. Abbott and McKinney point out that our view of the world is influenced by a range of variables such as class, gender, education, re...

The editors reflect on the implications of an ageing population: the fact that more and more people, particularly women, now live longer than before. This is due to increased survival rates, longevity and life expectancy gains in all age groups. The pension eligibility age has been increased in most of the countries beyond the traditional sixty-fiv...