Melodie McGeoch

• La Trobe University

Accurate downscaling with uncertainty quantification and its inclusion in fitting biodiversity models to data are essential for accurate, valid inferences and predictions. Here, we provide a general framework for spatial modelling of biodiversity that involves downscaling environmental covariates. We derive downscaling for ecological data based on...

An ongoing quest in ecology is understanding how species commonness influences compositional change. While each species' contribution to beta diversity (SCBD) depends both on its abundance and how widespread it is (e.g. occupancy) a general expectation for these influences is lacking. Using published data for 9924 species across 177 metacommunities...

Aim Identifying priority species and introduction pathways has long been a goal of national and international policy for reducing and mitigating the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS). Although identifying priority sites for invasion management is included within Target 6 of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, methods for doing...

With large wildfires becoming more frequent1,2, we must rapidly learn how megafires impact biodiversity to prioritize mitigation and improve policy. A key challenge is to discover how interactions among fire-regime components, drought and land tenure shape wildfire impacts. The globally unprecedented3,4 2019–2020 Australian megafires burnt more tha...

Reducing the rates and impacts of biological invasions is a major policy goal of international biodiversity agreements. Yet the extent to which this goal is being achieved and the agreements hence successful in this respect remains unclear. Here we use a comprehensive record of alien species introduction in the terrestrial Antarctic, including its...

The relationship between global trait distinctiveness and geographic range size is an emerging pattern of interest in macroecology. Early observations suggested that the relationship was positive, implying that globally widespread species hold the rarest combinations of traits. Here, we formally describe and test the relationship in the world's bir...

Although invasive alien species have long been recognized as a major threat to nature and people, until now there has been no comprehensive global review of the status, trends, drivers, impacts, management and governance challenges of biological invasions. The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)...

Most aerated cave ecosystems are assumed to be oligotrophic given they receive minimal inputs of light energy. Diverse microorganisms have nevertheless been detected within caves, though it remains unclear what strategies enable them to meet their energy and carbon needs. Here we determined the processes and mediators of primary production in aerat...

Aim Reducing the rate of alien species introductions is a major conservation aim. However, accurately quantifying the rate at which species are introduced into new regions remains a challenge due to the confounding effect of observation efforts on discovery records. Despite the recognition of this issue, most analyses are still based on raw discove...

Monitoring the extent to which invasive alien species (IAS) negatively impact the environment is crucial for understanding and mitigating biologi- cal invasions. Indeed, such information is vital for achieving Target 6 of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. However, to-date indi- cators for tracking the environmental impacts of IAS...

In 2050, most areas of biodiversity significance will be heavily influenced by multiple drivers of environmental change. This includes overlap with the introduced ranges of many alien species that negatively impact biodiversity. With the decline in biodiversity and increase in all forms of global change, the need to envision the desired qualities o...

Human-induced global changes, including anthropogenic climate change, biotic globalization, trophic downgrading and pervasive land-use intensification, are transforming Earth's biosphere, placing biodiversity and ecosystems at the forefront of unprecedented challenges. The Anthropocene, characterized by the importance of Homo sapiens in shaping the...

Trait diversity, including trait turnover, that differentiates the roles of species and communities according to their functions, is a fundamental component of biodiversity. Accurately capturing trait diversity is crucial to better understand and predict community assembly, as well as the consequences of global change on community resilience. Exist...

Aim A pervasive negative relationship between the species richness of an assemblage and the mean global range size of the species it contains has recently been identified. Here, we test for an effect of habitat patch size on the mean landscape‐scale incidence (estimating local range size) of constituent species independent of variation in richness....

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) calls for a 50% reduction in rates of invasive alien species establishment by 2030. However, estimating changes in rates of introduction and establishment is far from straightforward, particularly on a national scale. Variation in survey effort over time, the absence of data on survey effort,...

All aspects of biodiversity research, from taxonomy to conservation, rely on data associated with species names. Effective integration of names across multiple fields is paramount and depends on the coordination and organization of taxonomic data. We assess current efforts and find that even key applications for well-studied taxa still lack commona...

The rate and extent of global biodiversity change is surpassing our ability to measure, monitor and forecast trends. We propose an interconnected worldwide system of observation networks — a global biodiversity observing system (GBiOS) — to coordinate monitoring worldwide and inform action to reach international biodiversity targets.

Effective biodiversity management and policy decisions require timely access to accurate and reliable information on biodiversity status, trends, and threats. However, the process of data cleaning, aggregation, and analysis is often time-consuming, convoluted, laborious, and irreproducible. Biodiversity monitoring across large areas faces challenge...

Functional trait–based mediation of animal invasions is only now developing, yet it is already showing as much promise as the approach has for plant invasion biology. Here, we provide a theory-founded examination of functional trait-based ecology with respect to animal invasions, together with a review of the empirical research. Recent developments...

Invasive alien insects are an important yet understudied component of the general threat that biological invasions pose to biodiversity. We quantified the breadth and level of this threat by performing environmental impact assessments using a modified version of the Environmental Impact Assessment for Alien Taxa (EICAT) framework. This represents t...

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme fires. In 2019–2020, extreme fires burned 97 000 km ² of native vegetation in south‐eastern Australia, affecting many areas of rainforest, which has historically burned less frequently. One year post‐fires, we surveyed litter macroinvertebrates in 52 temperate rainforest sites. Sites had experie...

All aspects of biodiversity research, from taxonomy to conservation, rely on data associated with species names. Effective integration of names across multiple fields is paramount and depends on coordination and organization of taxonomic data. We assess current efforts and find that even key applications for well-studied taxa still lack commonality...

Open data on biological invasions are particularly critical in regions that are co-governed and/or where multiple independent parties have responsibility for preventing and controlling invasive alien species. The Antarctic is one such region where, in spite of multiple examples of invasion policy and management success, open, centralised data are n...

Trait diversity, including trait turnover, that differentiates the roles of species and communities according to their functions, is a fundamental component of biodiversity. Accurately capturing trait diversity is crucial to better understand and predict community assembly, as well as the consequences of global change on community resilience. Exist...

The number of species shared by two or more sites is a fundamental measure of spatial variation in species composition. As more sites are included in the comparison of species composition, the average number of species shared across them declines, with a rate increasingly dependent on only the most widespread species. In over 80% of empirical commu...

Facilitation is an interaction where one species (the benefactor) positively impacts another (the beneficiary). However, the reciprocal effects of beneficiaries on their benefactors are typically only documented using short‐term datasets. We use Azorella selago, a cushion plant species and benefactor, and a co‐occurring grass species, Agrostis mage...

Isotopic and hydrochemical data from lakes provide direct information on catchment response to changing rainfall, evaporation, nutrient cycling, and the health of ecosystems. These techniques have not been widely applied to lakes in the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes, including Southern Ocean Islands (SOIs) experiencing rapid, significant shift...

Facilitation is an interaction where one species (the benefactor) positively impacts another (the beneficiary). However, the reciprocal effects of beneficiaries on their benefactors are typically only documented using short-term datasets. We use Azorella selago , a cushion plant species and benefactor, and a co-occurring grass species, Agrostis mag...

Assessing and addressing biodiversity needs are of critical and time-sensitive importance, with the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework’s Global Taxonomy Initiative underscoring the need to build capacity in how we conceptualize biodiversity (Abrahamse et al. 2021). Species—as biological units—and their names are the backbone for the data integ...

Monitoring the progress parties have made toward meeting global biodiversity targets requires appropriate indicators. The recognition of invasive alien species (IAS) as a biodiversity threat has led to the development of specific targets aiming at reducing their prevalence and impact. However, indicators for adequately monitoring and reporting on t...

Invasive alien insects as a driver of biodiversity change are an important yet understudied component of the general threat of biological invasions. The environmental impacts of invasive alien insects are varied and widespread, with evidence to suggest that an insect species global maximum impact is likely to increase in severity as it increases it...

The total impact of an alien species was conceptualised as the product of its range size, local abundance and per-unit effect in a seminal paper by Parker et al. (Biol Invasions 1:3–19, 1999). However, a practical approach for estimating the three components has been lacking. Here, we generalise the impact formula and, through use of regression mod...

Invasive alien species (IAS) are a rising threat to biodiversity, national security, and regional economies, with impacts in the hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars annually. Proactive or predictive approaches guided by scientific knowledge are essential to keeping pace with growing impacts of invasions under climate change. Although the rapid dev...

Biological invasions are a leading threat to biodiversity globally. Increasingly, ecosystems experience multiple introductions, which can have significant effects on patterns of diversity. The way these communities assemble will depend partly on whether rare and common alien species respond to environmental predictors in the same manner as rare and...

Human impacts on the Earth’s biosphere are driving the global biodiversity crisis. Governments are preparing to agree on a set of actions intended to halt the loss of biodiversity and put it on a path to recovery by 2050. We provide evidence that the proposed actions can bend the curve for biodiversity, but only if these actions are implemented urg...

The original version of Chapter 2 was inadvertently published with incorrect last name of the co-author. The name “Jennie Winham” has now been corrected to “Jennie Whinam”.

EXPERT INPUT TO THE POST-2020 GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY FRAMEWORK: TRANSFORMATIVE ACTIONS ON ALL DRIVERS OF BIODIVERSITY LOSS ARE URGENTLY REQUIRED TO ACHIEVE THE GLOBAL GOALS BY 2050

Aim To derive null models for the expected number of species shared among multiple samples or habitat patches, allowing exploration of the geometric effects of subdivision on species diversity. Location Global. Major taxa studied Predominantly sessile organisms. Methods The occurrence probability of a species in a subdivided area depends on its...

Ecological network structure is maintained by a generalist core of common species. However, rare species contribute substantially to both the species and functional diversity of networks. Capturing changes in species composition and interactions, measured as turnover, is central to understanding the contribution of rare and common species and their...

The total impact of an alien species was conceptualised as the product of its range size, local abundance and per-unit effect in a seminal paper by Parker and colleagues in 1999, but a practical approach for estimating the three components has been lacking. Here, we generalise the impact formula and, through use of regression models, estimate the r...

Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse...

Invasive alien species are repeatedly shown to be amongst the top threats to biodiversity globally. Robust indicators for measuring the status and trends of biological invasions are lacking, but essential for monitoring biological invasions and the effectiveness of interventions. Here, we formulate and demonstrate three such indicators that capture...

Aim Microclimate information is often crucial for understanding ecological patterns and processes, including under climate change, but is typically absent from ecological and biogeographic studies owing to difficulties in obtaining microclimate data. Recent advances in microclimate modelling, however, suggest that microclimate conditions can now be...

Monitoring the progress parties have made toward meeting global biodiversity targets requires appropriate indicators. The recognition of Invasive alien species (IAS) as a biodiversity threat has led to the development of specific targets aiming at reducing their prevalence and impact. However, indicators for adequately monitoring and reporting on t...

Sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island has been the location of a rapid ecosystem collapse in its most dominant vegetation assemblage, the Macquarie Island alpine mosaic, beginning around 2008 and continuing today. An ecosystem engineer and endemic, keystone species, the cushion plant, Azorella macquariensis (Apiaceae), and associated bryophyte species hav...

The use of traits is growing in ecology and biodiversity informatics, with initiatives to collate trait data and integrate it into biodiversity databases. A need to develop better predictive capacity for how species respond to environmental change has in part motivated this focus. Functional traits are of most interest—those with a defined link to...

Impact assessment is an important and cost‐effective tool for assisting in the identification and prioritization of invasive alien species. With the number of alien and invasive alien species expected to increase, reliance on impact assessment tools for the identification of species that pose the greatest threats will continue to grow. Given the im...

Globally, collapse of ecosystems—potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function—imperils biodiversity, human health and well‐being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2, from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from...

Information on the pathways by which alien taxa are introduced to new regions is vital for prioritising policy and management responses to invasions. However, available datasets are often compiled using disparate methods, making comparison and collation of pathway data difficult. Using a standardised framework for recording and categorising pathway...

Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, current global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. We used a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global b...

Microclimate information is often crucial for understanding ecological patterns and processes, including under climate change, but is typically absent from ecological and biogeographic studies owing to difficulties in obtaining microclimate data. Recent advances in microclimate modelling, however, suggest that microclimate conditions can now be pre...

Information on the pathways by which alien taxa are introduced to new regions is vital for prioritising policy and management responses to invasions. However, available datasets are often compiled using disparate methods, making comparison and collation of pathway data difficult. Using a standardised framework for recording and categorising pathway...

Where interspecific facilitation favors the establishment of high densities of a beneficiary species, strong intraspecific competition may subsequently impede beneficiary performance. Consequently, the negative influence of intraspecific competition between beneficiary individuals could potentially outweigh the positive influence of interspecific f...

The negative impact of invasive alien plants (IAPs) in protected areas (PAs) is managed through control programmes, often using area‐based management, where identified IAPs in management units are controlled simultaneously. However, this approach has shortfalls, including the methods used to prioritise management units, spatial grain dependence and...

The number of alien species introduced and undergoing range expansion in novel environments is steadily increasing, with important consequences for native ecosystems. The efficacy of management planning and decision making to limit such invasions can be improved by understanding how interventions will impact the population dynamics of recently intr...

Aims Darwin’s naturalization hypothesis proposes that successfully established alien species are less closely related to native species due to differences in their ecological niches. Studies have provided support both for and against this hypothesis. One reason for this is the tendency for phylogenetic clustering between aliens and natives at broad...

Under anthropogenic climate change, emerging diseases and pathogens are increasingly prevalent in high latitude and altitude regions that were previously protected by cold winter temperatures. Ongoing island‐wide dieback of a foundation species, the cushion plant Azorella macquariensis, on World Heritage listed Macquarie Island provides the first s...

Biodiversity data are being collected at unprecedented rates. Such data often have significant value for purposes beyond the initial reason for which they were collected, particularly when they are combined and collated with other data sources. In the field of invasion ecology, however, integrating data represents a major challenge due to the notor...

It is commonly thought that bacterial distributions show lower spatial variation than for multicellular organisms. In this article, we present evidence that these inferences are artifacts caused by methodological limitations. Through leveraging innovations in sampling design, sequence processing, and diversity analysis, we provide multifaceted evid...

As global climates change, alien species are anticipated to have a growing advantage relative to their indigenous counterparts, mediated through consistent trait differences between the groups. These insights have largely been developed based on interspecific comparisons using multiple species examined from different locations. Whether such consist...

Impact assessment is a widely used and cost-effective tool for prioritising invasive alien species. With the number of alien and invasive alien species expected to increase, reliance on impact assessment tools for the identification of species that pose the greatest threats will continue to grow. Given the importance of such assessments for managem...

Background and aims: Since its emergence in the mid-20th century, invasion biol- ogy has matured into a productive research field addressing questions of fundamen- tal and applied importance. Not only has the number of empirical studies increased through time, but also has the number of competing, overlapping and, in some cases, contradictory hypot...

To improve the suitability of the Darwin Core standard for the research and management of alien species, the standard needs to express the native status of organisms, how well established they are and how they came to occupy a location. To facilitate this, we propose: 1. To adopt a controlled vocabulary for the existing Darwin Core term dwc:establi...

Invasions by alien species continue worldwide, causing tremendous harm to biodiversity and human well-being. Post-2020 discussions of the Convention on Biological Diversity must link targets to monitoring innovations and decision support for a maximally effective and global response.

With protected areas identified as the primary tool to halt the loss of biodiversity, the Convention on Biological Diversity has set targets for protected area expansion. Increasingly, concerns are being raised that target-driven growth, where targets focus largely on quantity (total area protected) rather than quality, may fail to achieve their in...

Incidence, or compositional, matrices are generated for a broad range of research applications in biology. Zeta diversity provides a common currency and conceptual framework that links incidence‐based metrics with multiple patterns of interest in biology, ecology, and biodiversity science. It quantifies the variation in species (or OTU) composition...

Biotic interactions can shape species’ distributions through their impact on species’ realized niches, potentially constraining or expanding the range of conditions under which species occur. We examine whether fine‐scale plant–plant interactions scale up to shape broad‐scale species’ distributions, using Azorella selago, a widespread cushion plant...

There is a growing focus on species’ traits in ecology, including initiatives to integrate trait data into biodiversity databases. This focus is motivated in part by a need to develop better predictive capacity for how species respond to environmental change. In this context, one is interested in functional traits – i.e. those with a defined link t...

The distribution of genetic variation in species is governed by factors that act differently across spatial scales. To tease apart the contribution of different processes, especially at intermediate spatial scales, it is useful to study simple ecosystems such as those on sub‐Antarctic oceanic islands. In this study, we characterize spatial genetic...

Anthropogenic environmental change is driving the rapid loss of biodiversity. Large declines in the abundance of historically common species are now emerging as a major concern. Identifying declining populations through long‐term biodiversity monitoring is vital for implementing timely conservation measures. It is, therefore, critical to evaluate t...

Several plant traits have been linked to invasion success in studies involving single alien species or invaded versus non-invaded communities. Less consideration has been given to how invasion by multiple alien species changes community-wide traits and functional structure at landscape scales. Changes to community functional structure by multispeci...

Extensive dieback in dominant plant species in response to climate change is increasingly common. Climatic conditions and related variables, such as evapotranspiration, vary in response to topographical complexity. This complexity plays an important role in the provision of climate refugia. In 2008/2009, an island‐wide dieback event of the keystone...

Species distributions and abundances are undergoing rapid changes worldwide. This highlights the significance of reliable, integrated information for guiding and assessing actions and policies aimed at managing and sustaining the many functions and benefits of species. Here we synthesize the types of data and approaches that are required to achieve...

Annex B - List of GBIC2 Attendees

دعوة لتكوين تحالف لمعرفة التنوع البيولوجي

Call for an alliance for biodiversity knowledge

Convocatoria de una alianza para el conocimiento de la biodiversidad

Apelo a uma aliança para o conhecimento da biodiversidade

Annex A - Outputs from GBIC2 Working Groups

Appel à une alliance pour la connaissance sur la biodiversité

Призыв к созданию альянса знаний по биоразнообразию

Biodibertsitatea ezagutzeko aliantza baterako deialdia

Call: Een alliantie voor kennis over biodiversiteit

Protected areas face mounting pressures, including invasion by alien plant species. Scientifically sound information is required to advise invasive species management strategies, where early detection and rapid response is particularly important. One approach to this is to determine: (i) the relative importance of pathways of invasion by which a sp...

To account for progress towards conservation targets, monitoring systems should capture not only information on biodiversity but also knowledge on the dynamics of ecological processes and the related effects on human well-being. Protected areas represent complex social-ecological systems with strong human-nature interactions. They are able to provi...