Melike Bildirici

• Prof.Dr.
• Professor at Yıldız Technical University

We argue that climate policy uncertainty can lead to a unique type of regulatory arbitrage whereby domestic firms respond to fluctuations between lax and stringent environmental regulations by relocating their production processes to jurisdictions with minimal environmental policies that could affect their profitability. The presence of uncertainty...

This study investigates the relation and Granger causality among inflation, fiscal expenditure, energy consumption, economic growth, energy efficiency, renewable energy consumption, and environmental pollution in the G7 countries utilizing the PLSTRVAR model for 1975–2022. Our findings highlight the results that inflation and fiscal expenditure hav...

The fashion industry, which stands out for its creativity and dynamism, has multidimensional impacts in terms of environmental sustainability from raw material extraction to waste management. The textile and fashion industries are criticized for posing significant threats to the ecosystem, biodiversity, and human health by negatively impacting air,...

Bitcoin’s (BT) energy demand due to the proof of work mining algorithm and transaction methods has been criticized in recent literature because of BT’s global energy consumption (EC) being equal to or even greater than that of some industrialized economies. This study explores the contagion and causality dynamics under nonlinearity and heteroskedas...

The study investigates the nonlinear contagion, tail dependence, and Granger causality relations with TAR-TR-GARCH–copula causality methods for daily Bitcoin, Fintech, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in addition to examining these series for entropy, long-range dependence, fractionality, complexity, chaos, and nonlinearity with a dataset span...

This paper introduces hybrid models designed to analyze daily and weekly bitcoin return spanning the periods from 18 July 2010 to 28 December 2023 for daily data, and from 18 July 2010 to 24 December 2023 for weekly data. Firstly, the fractal and chaotic structure of the selected variables was explored. Asymmetric Cantor set, Boundary of the Dragon...

The cement industry is among the top three polluters among all industries and the examination of the nonlinear and cointegration dynamics between cement production and CO2 emissions has not been explored. Focusing on this research gap, the study employs a novel Markov-switching autoregressive distributed lag (MS-ARDL) model and its generalization t...

Financial technology (FinTech) depends on high amounts of energy with an upward trend, possibly affecting emissions due to energy consumption (EC). The study investigates tail dependence, contagion, and nonlinear between FinTech, EC, and carbon dioxide emissions (CO2e) with MS-GARCH-copula and MS-GARCH-copula-causality with a daily sample covering...

This study investigates the crucial but understudied relationship between chief executive officer (CEO) narcissism, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance in addition to the effects of financial performance. The study examines the nexus for their long-run and short-run associations and for quantile-specific effects including ca...

Metaverse (MV) technology introduces new tools for users each day. MV companies have a significant share in the total stock markets today, and their size is increasing. However, MV technologies are questioned as to whether they contribute to environmental pollution with their increasing energy consumption (EC). This study explores complex nonlinear...

There is a body of research that focuses on the examination of long-run relations between energy–environment–economic growth, and there is also a new type of recent research that focuses on the effects of monetary and fiscal economic policies on the environment. There is a research gap that exists due to omitting the effects of technology and energ...

In line with the fourth industrial revolution, most countries have imposed a variety of regulations or policies for the goals of energy conservation, sustainable development, and industrial transition. Renewable energy production and its production process, which is widely discussed, especially in the context of sustainable energy, has become more...

The effects of environmental pollution and Industry 4.0 on a sustainable environment are the main topic of this study, which may be regarded as a complement to the literature on energy and the environment. The paper aims to investigate the relation between Industry 4.0 (I4.0) and environmental sustainability, which is very important for policymaker...

Governments use fiscal and monetary policies to direct the economy toward economic expansion. However, both policies could have impacts on the environment. The study investigates the effects of fiscal and monetary policy, energy consumption and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions for the Turkish economy from 1978 to 2021 with novel nonlinea...

After 2010, refugees through the World peaked at the highest level since WW II. Most of this increment was realized between 2011 and 2015 years in the effect of the Syrian conflict and the Arabic spring, and refugee problem that is an important problem for the world emerged. This problem was analyzed in the macroeconomic dimension, in the health di...

Forecasting stock markets is an important challenge due to leptokurtic distributions with heavy tails due to uncertainties in markets, economies, and political fluctuations. To forecast the direction of stock markets, the inclusion of leading indicators to volatility models is highly important; however, such series are generally at different freque...

Prediction of the economy in global markets is of crucial importance for individuals, decisionmakers, and policies. To this end, effectiveness in modeling and forecasting the directions of such leading indicators is of crucial importance. For this purpose, we analyzed the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), Investor Sentiment Index (VIX), and Global Stock Mark...

This paper investigated the dynamic and causal relationship among energy intensity, economic growth, urbanization, energy consumption, FDI, and PM2.5 in 1995–2019 period for China, India, Germany, Canada, USA and United Kingdom countries through Panel Fourier Bootstrapping ARDL (PFBARDL) model and Panel Fourier causality test. According to PFBARDL...

The paper aims at investigation of the nexus between Industry 4.0 (I4.0) and environmental sustainability in addition to exploring the long-run and short-run effects of Industry 4.0 on CO2 emissions. For this end, energy consumption, internet and communication technology (ICT) exports, research and development (R&D), artificial intelligence (AI)an...

This paper aims at analyzing nonlinear dependence between fractionally integrated, chaotic precious metal and oil prices and volatilities. With this respect, the Markov regime-switching fractionally integrated asymmetric power versions of generalized autoregressive conditional volatility copula (MS-FIAPGARCH-copula) method are further extended to m...

The fluctuations in oil have strong implications on many financial assets not to mention its relationship with gold prices, exchange rates, stock markets, and investor sentiment. Recent evidence suggests nonlinear contagion among the factors stated above with bivariate or trivariate settings and a throughout investigation of contagion and causality...

This paper aims to test the structure of interest rates during the period from 1 September 1981 to 28 December 2020 by using Lie algebras and groups. The selected period experienced substantial events impacting interest rates, such as the economic crisis, the military intervention of the USA in Iraq, and the COVID-19 pandemic, in which economies we...

This paper tests the cointegration and causality between mortality rate, terrorism, economic growth, and environmental pollution in China, India, Russia, and Türkiye in the period from 1990 to 2021 by using the Fourier bootstrapping auto-regressive distributed lag (FBARDL) test and Granger causality with Fourier (FGC) test. The FBARDL test determin...

Nowadays, the world is facing many important problems, including terrorism, drinkingwater supply problems, and environmental pollution, which have strong impacts on the sustainable development. In this paper, the cointegration between drinking water, terrorism, economic growth, energy consumption, and environmental pollution was explored in Afghani...

Renewable energy is in the center for providing a sustainable energy future. Renewables are the key for overcoming the energy problems. This paper investigated the dynamic and causal relationship among renewable energy production, current account balance, energy imports, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth in the 1976–2019 period for...

The relationship between information and communication technology investment (ICT), environmental impacts, and economic growth has received increasing attention in the last 20 years. However, the relationship between ICT, energy intensity, environmental impacts, and economic growth was relatively neglected. In this paper, we aimed to contribute to...

Although many variables that have adverse impacts on the sustainable environment are investigated from many aspects, some variables are missing. In this study, it will be simultaneously focused on the relation between refugees, governance, sustainable environment, economic growth, energy consumption, and supplementary explanatory variables, HDI, th...

In line with the fourth industrial revolution programs, most of the countries have imposed variety of regulations or policies for the goals of energy conservation, sustainable development, and industrial transition. This paper tested the relation among macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, renewable electricity generations (% of GDP), In...

This study was developed for two purposes. The first one is detection of the existence of chaotic structure and uncertainty behaviour of the total number of people infected with the COVID-19 outbreak, and the returns of precious metals and oil by using the Lyapunov exponent, Kolmogrov and Shannon entropy tests. The additional aim was to analyze the...

This study investigated the existence of chaotic structure in voting behavior by considering non-economic and macroeconomic factors in Turkey during the period of 03.1986-01.2020. The chaotic structure among the analyzed variables was characterized by Lyapunov exponents that explore the chaotic dynamics of the series. Following, the effects of infl...

This study aims to analyze the behaviors of air temperature during the period from 1895(5) to 2021(12) using Lie algebras method. We proposed an alternative method to model air temperature, in which the non-linear structure of temperature is evolved by a stochastic differential equation captured on a curved state space. After expressing stochastic...

Under the influence of the COVID19 pandemic, Bitcoin, gold, copper and silver prices have exhibited sudden changes. For this reason, in this paper, it was aimed to investigate contagion behavior, and the volatility of bitcoin, gold, copper and silver prices by using Markov Switching GARCH Multilayer Perceptron (MS-GARCH-MLP) Copula method in the pe...

This paper tested the relation among macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, current account balance, energy imports and non-economic variable as militarization for the selected countries by employing Markov Switching-Bayesian Vector Auto Regressive approach for China, Israel and South Korea. These countries have high rate of export and im...

Governance is one of the basic determinants of pollution levels through property rights, the effective judicial system, etc. it is accepted as that bad governance because of inefficient regulatory structures, government bureaucracy, weak law enforcement, etc. support environmental pollution. In this context, in some countries of the Middle East and...

In this paper, we propose hybrid models for modelling the daily oil price during the period from 2 January 1986 to 5 April 2021. The models on S2 manifolds that we consider, including the reference ones, employ matrix representations rather than differential operator representations of Lie algebras. Firstly, the performance of LieNLS model is exami...

The chaotic structure of air pollution, human health, the evidence of cointegration and causality between the air pollution, transportation, tourism, construction, and manufacturing industries and the evidence of cointegration and causality between the air pollution, transportation, tourism, construction, and manufacturing industries and mortality...

In some countries of the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, it was studied the impacts of governance and FDI on environmental pollution over the period of 1996–2018 by the Panel Quantile and Granger causality methods. The countries were selected by considering two different measurements, EPI (2020) and governance index (2020). Accordingly EPI(2020...

Under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the concurrent oil conflict between Russia and Saudi Arabia, oil prices have exhibited unusual and sudden changes. For this reason, the volatilities of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent and Dubai crude daily oil price data between 29 May 2006 and 31 March 2020 are analysed. Firstly, the presen...

Under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the concurrent oil conflict between Russia and Saudi Arabia, oil prices have exhibited unusual and sudden changes. For this reason, the volatilities of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent and Dubai crude daily oil price data between 29 May 2006 and 31 March 2020 are analysed. Firstly, the presen...

In this paper, the life span of hydro and nuclear energy generations and the relationship between hydro and nuclear energy generations, environmental pollution, and economic growth were investigated for Japan covering the period of 1960–2018 by employing the Bathtub‐Weibull curve and Markov switching‐vector error correcting (MSVEC) method, respecti...

In this paper, it was aimed to investigate the relation between economic growth, terrorism, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, environmental pollution, and energy consumption in China, India, Israel, and Turkey for a time span of 43 years from 1975 to 2017. Three different panel cointegration methods to determine the cointegration relation and...

The related literature reveal that the papers on environmental pollution do not sufficiently analyse the cement production which is an important determinant of air pollution and health problems by using econometric methods. To fill this gap, this paper aims to examine the relationship between cement production, air pollution, mortality rate, and ec...

In this study, metal curse hypothesis was suggested for top precious metal producer countries, i.e. Australia, Canada, Mexico, Philippines, Peru, South Africa and the USA by using nonlinear Smooth Transition Autoregressive Distributed Lag (STARDL) models for the period 1963-2017. We used precious metal production data as an indicator for resource r...

In this study, the relationships among environmental pollution, terrorism, foreign direct investments (FDI), energy consumption and economic growth is investigated for Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Syria, Somalia, Thailand and Yemen covering the 1975–2017 period utilizing Panel cointegration tests, ANOVA tests, long-run estimat...

The market volatility index (VIX) and the Baltic dry index (BDI) are evaluated as two important economic indicators, the former as being a gauge of investor’s fear and risk and the latter as being a reflection of costs associated to shipment of dry cargo. However, the empirical analyses aiming at achieving future forecasts suffer drastically due to...

In this paper, it was purposed to analyze the chaotic pattern of inflation-unemployment relation for the period from January, 1960 to April, 2019 in Turkey. For modelling this relation, oil prices were considered as an exogenous variable in examination of chaotic causal relation between inflation and unemployment. This model was applied in two stag...

After globalization processed most of the countries and the revolutionary developments in information technologies, financial investment flows have increased and investors have had the chance of investing in a large number of countries, sectors and assets. For a profitable investment, investors need an indicator to evaluate the risk level of a coun...

In this paper, two important points will be investigated, if the variables have the chaotic behavior by LLE and Henon map and if they have chaotic causality by Hristu-Varsakelis and Kyrtsou causality test. It was determined the chaotic behavior of the Turkish stock market and CDS. We found the evidence of bi-directional causality between CDS and Bi...

The paper aims at assessing the nonlinear relations among the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, petrol prices and the level of economic prosperity in USA and UK for the 1861- 2012 and 1871-2012 periods. By covering one of the largest samples, the paper achieves its novelty through the utilization of the Markov-switching based VAR and Granger causalit...

This article investigates the chaotic relationship among inflation rate, unemployment rate and oil prices over the period of January, 1974-October, 2018 in the USA. This study complements the previous studies on this subject. However, it differs from the existing literature in examination of inflation-unemployment trade-off by a neural network mode...

This article investigates the chaotic relationship among inflation rate, unemployment rate and oil prices over the period of January, 1974-October, 2018 in the USA. This study complements the previous studies on this subject. However, it differs from the existing literature in examination of inflation-unemployment trade-off by a neural network mode...

This article investigates the chaotic relationship among inflation rate, unemployment rate and oil prices over the period of January, 1974-October, 2018 in the USA. This study complements the previous studies on this subject. However, it differs from the existing literature in examination of inflation-unemployment trade-off by a neural network mode...

The study focuses on the nonlinear Granger causality between cement production, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions by Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MScVAR) and Markov-switching Granger causality approach for the period of 1960–2017 for China and the USA. The empirical findings from MSIA(2)-VAR(2) for the USA and MSIA(3)-VAR(3) f...

In this study, the relationship between precious metal production and economic growth is examined for the countries producing them the most, namely Australia, Canada, Mexico, Philippines, Peru, South Africa and USA, for the period 1963–2016 by using Markov switching-vector error correcting models and impulse–response functions. All economies under...

This study aims to investigate the relationships between oil price, consumer confidence and stock return and between gasoline price, consumer confidence and stock return for Turkey and the US by using the Markov Switching Vector Auto Regressive (MS-VAR) method and the Markov Switching-Granger Causality (MS-GC) method. Some studies determined that g...

The aim of this study was to explore hydropower energy in Japan. The hydropower energy is one of the major source in the Japan. Using for electricity production of hydropower can be drew back to Meiji epoch. In Japan, the hydropower energy exhibit more or less constant level in mix of the electricity production but the largest electricity source is...

This paper has two aims. The first one is to investigate the existence of chaotic structures in the oil prices, expectations of investors and stock returns by combining the Lyapunov exponent and Kolmogorov entropy, and the second one is to analyze the dependence behavior of oil prices, expectations of investors and stock returns from January 02, 19...

In this paper, we aim to analyze the chaotic structure of the daily Euro/USD parity. The examined data covers the period of 01/01/2004 and 03/04/2018. In this context firstly, to determine chaotic behavior of daily Euro/USD rates, the BDS test was used. And following, the chaotic behavior was examined by Largest Lyapunov Exponents (LLE) and Henon M...

In this study, the relationship between precious metal production and economic growth is analyzed by using Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag cointegration analysis method which allows investigating the effect of positive and negative changes in explanatory variables on dependent variable. We conducted the analysis by using GDP, gold, copper,...

The paper aims at evaluating the nonlinear and complex relations between CO2 emissions, economic development, and petrol prices to obtain new insights regarding the shape of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in the USA and in the UK in addition to introducing a newly proposed nonlinear approach. Within this respect, the paper has three purposes...

In this paper we aimed to determine chaotic behavior of electricity consumption in the USA for the period from 1973:1 to 2018:3. For this purpose, nonlinear structure of the model was determined by BDS test. And then, Lyapunov Exponents was employed to specify chaotic behavior of electricity consumption in the USA.

In this study, we attempt to test chaotic behavior of selected the variables and to determine chaotic relation between economic growth and coal consumption for the period from January, 1973 to March, 2018 in the USA by using Largest Lyapunov Exponents, Chaotic Causality perspectives. In this regard, firstly, it is aimed to identify nonlinear patter...

This study aims to investigate the relationships between oil price, business confidence and stock return for China, India and Russia by employing the Markov Switching Vector Auto Regressive(MS-VAR) and MS-Granger Causality(MS-GC) methods. For China, the causality relationship between business confidence and stock return differ from the results of R...

Gold and oil prices have wide impacts on the determinants of financial, commodity, labor markets and industrial production of countries because of high liquidity and tradability. Gold and oil price volatility implications are crucial for the economic growth of both emerging and developed countries across the world. By this motivation, in this paper...

The volatility of oil and gold prices has significant role on government’s’ economic policies and structures of business cycles. In this paper, it was aimed to analyze relation between gold and oil prices and their effects on the business cycle structures of the selected G7 countries. In this regard, MS-AR and MS-VAR models were selected to analyze...

It was aimed to test the relation among the greenhouse gases emissions, economic growth, biofuels consumption, and militarization in G7 countries during the 1985–2015 period by Pedroni 1995 and panel Johansen tests and two long-run estimators—dynamic OLS and fully modified OLS. Long-run estimators found that economic growth and militarization have...

This work aims to analyse the cointegration and the causality relationship between inflation and unemployment by using nonlinear A.R.D.L. and two popular nonlinear causality tests for the period from 1960 to 2016 in Japan, Turkey, the U.S.A. and from 1970 to 2016 in France. This study complements the previous empirical papers. However, it differs f...

In this paper, the relationship between biomass energy consumption and economic growth was analysed for some European Transition Countries. Two econometrical methods, which are time series (Autoregressive Distributed Lag (A.R.D.L.) bounds testing approach and Granger Causality) and Panel data methods (Pedroni test, Panel Johansen test and Panel Cau...

In the regards of chaos theory, new concepts such as complexity, determinism, quantum mechanics, relativity, multiple equilibrium, complexity, (continuously) instability, nonlinearity, heterogeneous agents, irregularity were widely questioned in economics. It is noticed that linear models are insufficient for analyzing unpredictable, irregular and...

The fluctuations in oil prices are very complicated and therefore, it is unable to predict its effects on economies. For modelling complex system of oil prices, linear economic models are not sufficient and efficient tools. Thus, in recent years, economists attached great attention to non-linear structure of oil prices. For analyzing this relations...

The study aims to combine the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework with smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)-type nonlinear econometric models for causal inference. Further, the proposed STAR distributed lag (STARDL) models offer new insights in terms of modeling nonlinearity in the long- and short-run relations between...

There was a typo in Table 5, two coefficients were reported in a wrong column, were shifted to the right. No change has been made to the estimates, only, they were taken to their original places.

The study aims to evaluate the economic growth process and the macroeconomic factors, namely, the inflation rates, the value added in the production taken as a proxy of productivity and openness to trade for the selected Eurasian transition economies. The paper focuses on the transition period and the economic performance achieved following the ind...

The relation among CO2 emissions, economic growth, militarization, and biofuel consumption were analyzed from 1985 to 2015 period for Brazil, China, and US. It was used to The Autoregressive Distributed lag and three supplementary long-run estimators: the Dynamic OLS, Canonical Cointegration Regression, and Fully Modified OLS to reveal the long run...

The study aims to evaluate economic growth process and the problems faced by the selected transition economies in Eurasia during the transition period and especially after their independence. The countries analyzed are Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The economic growth performances are evaluated with se...

Microcredit is a financial system creates women new employment opportunities, economic value-added, enables poverty reduction and promotes financial sector development which are among the principal purposes of developing countries. Since 1970s, it is implemented by small and medium enterprises of developing countries as social and economic developm...

Child labor is not socio-economic phenomenon only of recent times. By the mid-nineteenth century in Europe and during the Industrial Revolution in Britain, this matter attracted great attention especially in the third world. A large body of literature accepts that child labor force participation is highly associated with development level of countr...

This paper aims to test the relation among militarization, CO 2 emissions, economic growth and energy consumption in G7 countries from 1985 to 2015 via panel methods. Long- and short-run coefficients and the causal relationship between the variables are important for G7 countries' energy policies and strategy. Cointegration among CO 2 emissions, mi...

In this paper, the structure of the relationship between woody biomass energy consumption and real per Capita GDP was analyzed in the period of 1980–2012 for the selected African countries by ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), nonlinear ARDL, Granger causality and forecast error variance decomposition methods. After a symmetric relationship bet...

The cointegration and causal relation among CO2 emissions, economic growth, militarization, and biofuel consumption were tested from 1984 to 2015 period for Unite States (US). The Autoregressive Distributed lag and three supplementary long-run estimators: the Dynamic OLS, Canonical Cointegration Regression and Fully Modified OLS were employed to re...

This paper examines the long-run and the causal relationship among CO2 emissions, militarization, economic growth, and energy consumption for USA for the period 1960–2013. Using the bound test approach to cointegration, a short-run as well as a long-run relationship among the variables with a positive and a statistically significant relationship be...

This paper examines the relationship between oil consumption, oil production, CO2 consumption and economic growth in MENAP countries, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, Toda and Yamamotos' non-causality and ANOVA methods. According to our results, oil consumption has a positive impact on economic growth in Qata...

The study focuses on analyzing the policies followed in Turkey based on inflation targeting with an application of interest rate corridor policy in which the spread between the two policy rates, namely, the borrowing and lending rates. To overcome the difficulty of two different policy rates, two indices, the PDI and the MDI are utilized to capture...

This paper aimed to test the dynamic relationship between economic growth, petroleum consumption and militarization in Brazil, Russian, India, China, Turkey, South Africa and Mexico for the period 1987– 2013. It was used to the bounds test approach and it was determined whether there was a short and a long-run relationship among militarization, pet...

This paper will analyse the relationship between economic growth and hydropower energy consumption. According to the results of the short run causality, there is evidence to support the growth hypothesis in OECD countries with high incomes. There is evidence to support the conservation hypothesis for Brazil, Finland, France, Mexico, the U.S. and Tu...

In this study, determinants of the relation between woody biomass energy consumption and economic growth were discussed. The relationship was examined by Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for selected Sub-Saharan African countries such as Angola, Benin, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Seychelles and South Africa for the period...

Since its establishment, the Baltic Dry Index has become one of the foremost indicators on the cost of shipping as well as an important barometer on the volume of worldwide trade and manufacturing activity. In this paper, the MSIH(3)-VAR(3) model is selected to analyse the relationship between BDI, Gold prices and economic growth for the United Sta...

This paper aims to analyze Post-Keynesian Phillips Curve by using non-linear ARDL approach and non-linear Granger causality method for the period from 1957 to 2015 in Canada. This study is differed from other empirical paper by using non-linear ARDL method which determined there is long-run asymmetric relationship between the selected macroeconomic...

This paper aims to analyse the cointegration and causality relationships between inflation, GDP and unemployment by using Markov Switching –VAR and Markov Switching Causality tests for the period from 1957(2) to 2014(3) in USA. This study complements previous empirical papers. But at the same time, it differs from the existing literature by using M...

The study has two aims. The first is to investigate the interrelations of haemophilia, consanguineous marriages and their impacts on economic development. The second aim of the paper is to augment the panel regression techniques by incorporating them with Multi-Layer Perceptron neural networks models and Support Vector Machine methods. The extensio...

The study analyses the family of regime switching GARCH neural network models, which allow the generalization of MS type RS-GARCH models to MS-GARCH-NN models by incorporating with neural network architectures. Proposed models differ in terms of both the dynamics of the conditional volatility process and the forecasting capabilities compared to a f...