Mauro Napoletano

• Sciences Po Paris

We build a novel interregional computational input–output model to assess the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy. Lockdowns are modeled as shocks to labor supply, calibrated on regional and sectoral employment data coupled with the prescriptions of government decrees. When estimated on data from the first lockdown, our model closely reproduces t...

In this work we develop an agent-based model that offers an alternative to standard, computable general equilibrium integrated assessment models (IAMs). The Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes (DSK) model is composed of heterogeneous firms belonging to capital-good, consumption-good and energy sectors. Production and energy generation lead to green...

This paper presents the family of the Keynes+Schumpeter (K+S, cf. Dosi et al, J Econ Dyn Control 34 1748–1767 2010, J Econ Dyn Control 37 1598–1625 2013, J Econ Dyn Control 52 166–189 2015) evolutionary agent-based models, which study the effects of a rich ensemble of innovation, industrial dynamics and macroeconomic policies on the long-term growt...

We build an agent-based model to study how the interplay between low- and high-frequency trading affects asset price dynamics. Our main goal is to investigate whether high-frequency trading exacerbates market volatility and generates flash crashes. In the model, low-frequency agents adopt trading rules based on chronological time and can switch bet...

In this work, we employ the Keynes+Schumpeter (K+S) agent-based model (Dosi et al., 2010, 2013, 2015) to compare short- and long-run effects of Keynesian fiscal policies vis-à-vis austerity rules.

What is the most appropriate combination of fiscal and monetary policies in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions? We study this issue using an agent-based model that is able to reproduce a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities. Simulation results suggest that policy mixes associating unconstrained, counter-cyclical...

L’étude empirique comparative montre que la composition de l’investissementcompte bien davantage que son niveau global. C’est moins le tauxd’investissement que la nature des investissements effectués et leur degré decomplémentarité qui affectent naturellement la performance des entreprises etde l’économie.

This paper presents the family of the Keynes+Schumpeter (K+S, cf. Dosi et al, 2010, 2013, 2014) evolutionary agent-based models, which study the effects of a rich ensemble of innovation, industrial dynamics and macroeconomic policies on the long-term growth and short-run fluctuations of the economy. The K+S models embed the Schumpeterian growth par...

In this work we analyze the short- and long-run effects of fiscal austerity policies, employing an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, boundedly-rational firms and banks. The model, in line with the family of “Keynes+Schumpeter” formalism, is able to account for a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities. In particular, it end...

We build an agent-based model to study how _scal multipliers can change over the business cycle. Our approach considers the economy as a complex evolving system. In that, _scal state-dependent multipliers are emergent disequilibrium phenomenon stemming from the interaction among an ecology of heterogeneous agents. We study _scal multipliers in resp...

We build an agent-based model to study how the interplay between low- and high-frequency trading affects asset price dynamics. Our main goal is to investigate whether high-frequency trading exacerbates market volatility and generates flash crashes. In the model, low-frequency agents adopt trading rules based on chronological time and can switch bet...

Drawing on a large database of publicly announced R&D alliances, we track the evolution of R&D networks in a large number of economic sectors over a long time period (1986-2009). Our main goal is to evaluate temporal and sectoral robustness of the main statistical properties of empirical R&D networks. By studying a large set of indicators, we provi...

Using the "Keynes+Schumpeter" (K+S) agent-based model developed we study how the interplay between firms' investment behavior and income distribution shapes the short--and long-run dynamics of the economy at the aggregate level. We study the dynamics of investment under two different scenarios. One in which investment is fully determined by past pr...

Are current economic models well equipped to provide useful policy prescriptions? Many economists would have certainly answered, "yes" before the recent Global Recession. This economic crisis has not only demonstrated the importance of banking and financial markets for the dynamics of real economies. It has also revealed the inadequacy of the domin...

Are current economic models well equipped to provide useful policy prescriptions? Many economists would have certainly answered, "yes" before the recent Global Recession. This economic crisis has not only demonstrated the importance of banking and financial markets for the dynamics of real economies. It has also revealed the inadequacy of the domin...

This work studies the interactions between income distribution and monetary and fiscal policies in terms of ensuing dynamics of macro variables (GDP growth, unemployment, etc.) on the grounds of an agent-based Keynesian model. The direct ancestor of this work is the "Keynes meeting Schumpeter" formalism presented in Dosi et al. (2010). To that mode...

We introduce a new model for the evolution of networks of firms exchanging knowledge in R&D partnerships. Innovation is assumed to result from the recombination of knowledge among firms in an R&D intensive industry. The decision of two firms to establish a new partnerships or to terminate an existing one, is based on their marginal revenues and cos...

This paper employs a homogeneous-firm database to investigate industry localization in European countries. More specifically, it compares, across industries and countries, the predictions of two of the most popular localization indexes, that is, the Ellison and Glaeser index of 1997 and the Duranton and Overman index of 2005. Independently from the...

Country size, appropriate policy, and economic performance This paper empirically investigates the interplay between economic performance and policies in OECD countries. Macroeconomic theory focuses on supply policies as a key determinant of country’s economic performance. Aggregate demand can play a role only in the short-run. This view rests on t...

This paper empirically investigates the interplay between economic performance and policies in OECD countries. Macroeconomic theory focuses on supply policies as a key determinant of country?s economic performance. Aggregate demand can play a role only in the short-run. This view rests on the assumption that the economy is always in equilibrium. Ho...

Since unification, the debate about Germany's poor economic performance has focused on supply-side weaknesses, and the associated reform agenda sought to make low-skill labour markets more flexible. We question this diagnosis using three lines of argument. First, effective restructuring of the supply side in the core advanced industries was carried...

Face au ralentissement des ventes de véhicules, le « Pacte automobile » mobilise 9 milliards d’euros pour venir en aide aux constructeurs français. L’enjeu est triple : soutenir à court terme la demande et l’emploi, assurer l’avenir d’une industrie stratégique au regard des technologies mobilisées, contribuer au développement de véhicules propres....

We study the impact of alternative detrending techniques on the distributional properties of U.S. output time series. We detrend GDP and industrial production time series employing first-differencing, Hodrick-Prescott and bandpass filters. We show that the resulting distributions can be approximated by symmetric Exponential-Power densities, with ta...

This work introduces a new model to investigate the efficiency and evolution of networks of firms exchanging knowledge in R&D partnerships. We first examine the efficiency of a given network structure from the point of view of maximizing total profits in the industry. We show that the efficient network structure depends on the marginal cost of coll...

This work explores some distributional properties of aggregate output growth-rate time series. We show that, in the majority of OECD countries, output growth-rate distributions are well approximated by symmetric exponential power densities with tails much fatter than those of a Gaussian (but with finite moments of any order). Fat tails robustly eme...

We investigate some of the properties and extensions of a dynamic innovation network model recently introduced in \citep{koenig07:_effic_stabil_dynam_innov_networ}. In the model, the set of efficient graphs ranges, depending on the cost for maintaining a link, from the complete graph to the (quasi-) star, varying within a well defined class of grap...

We present an agent-based computational model in which bounded rational firms and workers trade on fully decentralized markets for final goods and labor by means of random matching protocols. The model replicates several macroeconomic phenomena regularly observed in the data, with aggregate features emerging from the localized interactions of indiv...

This paper investigates the statistical properties of within-country gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial production (IP) growth-rate distributions. Many empirical contributions have recently pointed out that cross-section growth rates of firms, industries and countries all follow Laplace distributions. In this work, we test whether also wit...

This work investigates the statistical properties of aggregate output growth rates in the U.S. and Italy. We show that in both countries growth rates follow an exponential-power density, with tails that are fatter than a normal distribution. Furthermore, fat tails appear to be robust with respect to: (i) the output measure employed in the analysis;...

This paper shows that the available stylized facts on productivity dynamics, such as persistent cross-sectoral heterogeneity, do not allow to solve an identification problem regarding the impact of common drivers - such as General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) - on economic growth. The evidence of persistently heterogeneous productivity performances...

This paper investigates the statistical properties of within-country GDP and industrial production (IP) growth rate distributions. Many empirical contributions have recently pointed out that cross-section growth rates of firms, industries and countries all follow Laplace distributions. In this work, we test whether also within-country, time-series...

In this paper, we perform an empirical comparison of Italian and US business cycles. After filtering the time series of the main macroeconomic variables of the two countries, through an approximate bandpass filter, we analyze the cross-correlations between each filtered variable and the filtered GDP, indicator of the business cycle. We find heterog...

We investigate the statistical properties of output growth-rate distributions. Recent empirical contributions indicate that growth rates follow a Laplace distribution at different levels of aggregation, and, following this, we test whether output growth rates can be so approximated. We also ask whether our findings are robust to alternative means f...

This paper studies how the interplay between technological shocks and financial variables shapes the properties of macroeconomic dynamics. Most of the existing literature has based the analysis of aggregate macroeconomic regularities on the representative agent hypothesis (RAH). However, recent empirical research on longitudinal micro data sets has...

In this paper, we apply the bandpass filter to the main Italian and US macroeconomic variables, we estimate cross-correlations with respect to a benchmark indicator of the business cycle, and we compare results with previous empirical analyses. The aim is to investigate on the existence of specific patterns and more general regularities, in order t...

Die zunehmende Vernetzung von Rechners über das Internet lies die Vision von Application Layer Netzwerken aufkommen. Sie umfassen Overlay Netzwerke wie beispielsweise Peer-to-Peer Netzwerke und Grid Infrastrukturen unter Verwendung des TCP/IP Protokolls. Ihre gemeinsame Eigenschaft ist die redundante, verteilte Bereitstellung und der Zugang zu Date...

Harberger's "A Vision of the Growth Process", Presidential Address at the 1998 Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, provides evidence that contributions to aggregate real cost reduction (RCR) are concentrated in a small number of industries. According to Harberger, this is because the effect of broad externalities - such as those li...

The work assesses the impact of alternative filtering techniques on the distributional properties of US economic time series. We consider filtered time series of US output levels and growth rates, and we show that their distributions can be approximated by symmetric exponential-power densities, with tails fatter than those of a Gaussian. Moreover,...