Matthieu Picault

• PhD
• Professor (Assistant) at University of Orléans

We introduce the concept of Political Central Bank Coverage (PCBC), which refers to the influence of monetary policy-related media coverage on the popularity of political parties. Our study focuses on Germany and examines the period between January 2005 and December 2021. To explore PCBC, we gathered monthly popularity ratings for six German politi...

We define the concept of Opportunistic Political Central Bank Coverage (OPCBC) which corresponds to an opportunistic modification of parties' popularity induced by media coverage of monetary policy. More precisely, we suppose that the treatment of monetary policy in the press has a significant impact on the popularity of national political parties...

This paper introduces the use of Machine Learning (ML) for text sentiment analysis as a tool to automatically classify European Central Bank (ECB) Press Conferences Introductory Statements based on its vocabulary features. The data set, that concerns the period from 2004 to 2020 (173 press conferences) contains sentences that are classified and lab...

Between 2010 and 2012 and with bank stability as the ultimate target, five European countries implemented a tax levy on banks’ liabilities thereby decreasing the cost of equity relative to the cost of debt. Using a difference-in-differences approach we assess the impact of this tax levy on banks’ participation in the syndicated loan market. We furt...

We investigate the effectiveness of the bank lending channel, that is, whether, and if so how, the accommodative monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) mitigated the disruption in bank lending between 2008 and 2014. We show that both standard and non-standard measures of the ECB's accommodating monetary policy alleviated banks' fundin...

We construct a new indicator to capture media sentiment about the European Central Bank monetary policy and its relevant environment by analyzing 25,000 articles from five major international newspapers. Using named entity recognition and part-of-speech tagging, we propose a methodology to dissociate the dissemination of official communications of...

We construct a new indicator to capture media sentiment about the European Central Bank monetary policy and its relevant environment by analyzing 25,000 articles from five major international newspapers. Using named entity recognition and part-of-speech tagging, we propose a methodology to dissociate the dissemination of official communications of...

Between 2010 and 2012 and with bank stability as the ultimate target, five European countries implemented a tax levy on banks' liabilities thereby decreasing the cost of equity relative to the cost of debt. Using a difference-in-differences approach we assess the impact of this tax levy on banks' participation in the syndicated loan market. We furt...

We construct a new indicator to capture media sentiment about the European Central Bank monetary policy and its relevant environment by analyzing 25,000 articles from five major international newspapers. Using named entity recognition and part-of-speech tagging, we propose a methodology to dissociate the dissemination of the central bank's official...

We present a theoretical model in which the central bank cares about the short-term stability of financial markets, which gives it an incentive to keep market expectations about future rates at a low level. This incentive is stronger when financial institutions are perceived to be fragile, because the impact on financial stability of a rise in rate...

We develop a field-specific dictionary to measure the stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy (dovish, neutral, hawkish) and the state of the Eurozone economy (positive, neutral, negative) through the content of ECB press conferences. In contrast with traditional textual analysis, we propose a novel approach using term-weighting a...

We develop a field-specific dictionary to measure the stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy (dovish, neutral, hawkish) and the state of the Eurozone economy (positive, neutral, negative) through the content of ECB press conferences. In contrast with traditional textual analysis, we propose a novel approach using term-weighting a...

On July 4, 2013, following several other major central banks, the European Central Bank (ECB) gave for the first time forward guidance on interest rates, which affected market participants' expectations of future interest rates in the context of a Zero Lower Bound. Using an ARMAX(1,1) model in which the effect of the communication of negative macro...

Under the spotlight since the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, central banks have drastically changed their communication. Completing the movement toward greater transparency initiated before the crisis, this transformation responded to the need to improve both the accountability of central banks and the effectiveness of monetary policy t...

On July the 4th of 2013 and after several other major central banks, the European Central Bank (ECB) gave for the first time a forward guidance on interest rates to affect market participants expectations of future interest rate in the context of a zero-lower-bound of main interest rates. Using an ARMAX(1,1) model where we disentangle the macroecon...