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Introduction
Skills and Expertise
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March 2010 - June 2014
Publications
Publications (39)
The Paris Agreement aims to limit the increase of global mean temperature to well-below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C. This study provides a multi-model analysis of global projections of current policies and pledges, and climate pathways to implement the Paris Agreement’s overall goals. In this exercise, current policies and NDCs scenarios are updated....
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to strong economic repercussions globally. In particular, turbulences on international energy markets and reduced flows of natural gas from Russia to the EU led to a sharp increase of natural gas prices. In this paper, we investigate the effect of higher gas prices on the European economy using the computable ge...
Recent climate diplomacy efforts have resulted in Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) with South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam, mobilizing financial support for ambitious decarbonization targets. Here, to assess JETPs’ alignment with global climate targets, we conduct a model-based assessment of JETPs’ energy and emissions targets. Results...
This paper presents a new approach for projecting or updating household-level consumption expenditures in line with the existing macro-data (projections) on aggregate consumption and demographic dynamics. Our macro-micro modelling exercises reveal that the use of outdated microdata could lead to an overestimation of direct climate policy costs as w...
Carbon pricing can steer energy choices towards low-carbon fuels and foster energy conservation efforts. Simultaneously, higher fossil fuel prices may exacerbate energy poverty. A just portfolio of climate policies therefore requires a balanced instrument mix to jointly combat climate change and energy poverty. We review recent policy developments...
The European Green Deal aims to put the EU on track towards climate neutrality by 2050. One of the key elements is a more stringent greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. We analyse the socio-economic consequences of alternative policy pathways to reach that target, either relying more on regulatory standards, on...
While electrification of road transport is a key component of decarbonisation, the implications for the broader economy and related jobs remain underexplored. We quantify these impacts in the EU in a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, combining techno-economic assumptions about electric vehicles with deployment scenarios derived by...
Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of a...
Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some i...
This paper explores the effects of the technological development of key low-carbon power technologies (photovoltaic (PV), wind, and carbon capture and storage (CCS)) on the stability of global climate cooperation under several assumptions about climate-related damage. The methodology combines cooperative game theory with a global computable general...
Concerns about industry competitiveness and distributional impacts can deter ambitious climate policies. Typically, these issues are studied separately, without giving much attention to the interaction between the two. Here, we explore how carbon leakage reduction measures affect distributional outcomes across households within 11 European countrie...
The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for 'making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions'. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associat...
The goal of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 °C, and possibly to 1.5 °C, emerged in the Paris Agreement, motivated by the belief that achieving these targets 'would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change'. Understanding the climate impacts of relatively low levels of warming, in particular whether there are substan...
Crop yields are vulnerable to climate change. We assess the global impacts of climate change on agricultural systems under two climate projections (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) to quantify the difference in impacts if climate change were reduced. We also employ two different socioeconomic pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) to assess the sensitivity of results to the u...
Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature in...
We present a parallel parameter optimization algorithm for reproducing future projections of certain model outputs in dynamic general equilibrium models. The optimization problem is reduced to a nonlinear system of equations. The Jacobian matrix for a Newton-type solver in the problem is generated in parallel. The parameter optimization algorithm i...
Game-theoretic models of international cooperation on climate change come to very different results regarding the stability of the grand coalition of all countries, depending on the stability concept used. In particular, the core-stability concept produces an encouraging result that does not seem to be supported by reality. We extend the game-theor...
A simple model is used to illustrate the effects of a reduction in (marginal) abatement cost in a two-country setting. It can be shown that a country experiencing a cost reduction can actually be worse off. This holds true for a variety of quantity and price-based emission policies. Under price-based policies, a country with lower abatement costs m...
Deep emission cuts rely on the use of low carbon technologies like renewable energy or carbon capture and storage. There is considerable uncertainty about their future costs. We carry out a sensitivity analysis based on Gauss Quadrature for cost parameters describing these technologies in order to evaluate the effect of the uncertainty on total and...
Because of large economic and environmental asymmetries among world regions and the incentive to free ride, an international climate regime with broad participation is hard to reach. Most of the proposed regimes are based on an allocation of emissions rights that is perceived as fair. Yet, there are also arguments to focus more on the actual welfar...
Quantification of CO2 emissions embodied in China’s trade is important for an informed debate on whom to blame for the recent rise in Chinese emissions or the calculation of border carbon adjustments. Applying input output (IO) techniques, we calculate these emissions in (1) a standard model, (2) a regionally disaggregated model, taking into accoun...
In order to significantly reduce global carbon emissions, it is necessary also to control CO
2
emissions in fast growing emerging economies such as India. The question is how the Indian economy would be affected by including the country in an international climate regime. In this analysis we soft-link a global and a single-country computable genera...
Technology transfer (TT) is not mandatory for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects, yet proponents of CDM argue that TT in CDM can bring new technologies to developing countries and thus not only reduce emissions but also foster development. We review the quantitative literature on determinants of TT in CDM and estimate determinants for CDM p...
This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scale are soft-linked and harmonized with respect to p...
This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scale are soft-linked and harmonized with respect to p...
We carry out a detailed sensitivity analysis of border carbon adjustment (rates) by applying a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) GTAP7-based model. We find different incentives for the regions in the climate coalition to raise carbon-based border tax rates (BTAX) above the standard rate that mimics an equalisation of carbon prices across...
To meet ambitious global climate targets, mitigation effort in China and India is necessary. This paper presents an analysis of the scientific literature on how effort-sharing approaches affect emission allowances and abatement costs of China and India. We find that reductions for both China and India differ greatly in time, across-and within appro...
In a recent article Mabee et al. [2012, Energy Policy 40 (1), 480–489] describe the German legislation to promote renewable electricity generation (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz). The erroneous assumption that an annual degression of feed-in tariffs for any given power generating facility are stipulated in the law leads to a wrong calculation of net...