Matthew J. Spaniol

Roskilde University

For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly att...

We discuss our lessons from 8 years of teaching business model innovation to executives in our part-time MBA program. We examine how strategic foresight tools are particularly useful to help students to overcome cognitive bounds that inhibit business model innovation and discuss the considerations of using student-owned live cases.

Kees van der Heijden is an icon in the futures and foresight academic and practitioner community. Educated at the Technische Universiteit Delft, his work at Royal Dutch Shell, the Global Business Network, the Strathclyde Business School at University of Strathclyde, the Saïd Business School and the Templeton College at University of Oxford, and the...

Productive activity in the North Sea Region (NSR) is expected to intensify, diversify, and expand further offshore. Pressure to decarbonize and “electrify” the existing and emerging industries of the ocean economies offer an opportunity as the electrification of the seas has captured the imagination of industry and policymakers as a pathway to achi...

The mission policy approach to the sustainable blue economy has identified as critical the ability to anticipate the emergence of a wide range of feasible innovations as they enter the transactional environment of organizations in the marine and maritime sector. This article contributes to that growing effort by harnessing the wisdom of the crowd a...

This article is a rejoinder in response to commentaries written about a 25‐year retrospective on Kees van der Heijden's seminal text Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. As a means to explore the commentaries and—without irony—bring them into conversation with one another, this piece engages in a thought experiment about the impact of Scen...

It has been twenty years since Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2001) pub- lished Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (hereafter Fooled). Taleb's (2005) updated softback second edition adds 146 pages to the original hardback, and con- tains, we agree with Stone (2005), “writing that's a bit smoother.” Both editions cont...

While the bulk of this commentary is oriented toward a scholarly conversation in management studies and organizational sociol- ogy hosted by Administrative Science Quarterly in 1995, the target audience is readership of this journal, which includes individuals established in the field and relative newcomers. Two articles in Fergnani and Chermack's...

This report provides a current assessment on the prospects for aerial drone applications onboard ships. Three use cases are each forecasted to their time to implementation and evaluated as an opportunity for the maritime and offshore industries. The report's findings are based on respondents' answers to surveys about the three use cases. The data f...

The report is organized as follows. The introduction will lay out the current state-of-play of eco-efficiency and the zeitgeist of the current situation on maritime that we find ourselves in, in 2020. The next section will provide some historical context looking back to 2010 and 2000 to trace the trajectory and developmental course on which we are....

This report provides a summary on the prospects for aerial drone applications for the smart inspection and maintenance for maritime and offshore industries. The report's findings are based on respondents' answers to surveys and focuses on when aerial drones will come into smart maintenance operations and their business potential. This report is pro...

This report provides an assessment on the prospects for the microgrids at large ports. A survey has been developed to this end and has been evaluated by respondents to crowdsource a forecasted time horizon to implementation and its potential as an opportunity for the maritime and offshore industries. This report is produced by the PERISCOPE Group a...

This report provides an assessment on the prospects for offshore energy hubs. Four use cases have been developed and evaluated by respondents in a survey instrument for their forecasted time horizon to implementation and their business potential as opportunities for the maritime and offshore industries.

This report provides a summary on the prospects for developing offshore logistics hubs and their evaluation as opportunities for the maritime and offshore industries. The report’s findings are based on respondents’ answers to surveys and focuses on when offshore logistic hubs will come into operation and their business potential. The data for this...

The report is organized as follows. The introduction will lay out the current state-of-play of eco-efficiency and the zeitgeist of the current situation on maritime that we find ourselves in, in 2020. The next section will provide some historical context looking back to 2010 and 2000 to trace the trajectory and developmental course that we are on....

Two patterns of inquiry in futures and foresight science have been called into question, namely, the conflict of interest inherent in the practice of self‐observation among facilitators and the inadequacy of retrospective scientific accounts by proponents of their own methods. This is especially concerning as the broader management literature, in a...

This commentary is written as much for individuals already established in the field as it is for scholars beyond the relatively small world of futures studies. In addition to underscoring the programmatic agenda for research implied by Schoemaker’s (2020) new work and the curricular implications of the article for how students of futures and histor...

Two patterns of inquiry in futures and foresight science have been called into question, namely, the conflict of interest inherent in the practice of self-observation among facilitators and the inadequacy of retrospective scientific accounts by proponents of their own methods. This is especially concerning as the broader management literature, in a...

One form of research preparing undergraduates for the twenty-first-century workplace is scenario planning. The authors argue students gain “futures literacy”—the “capacity to explore the potential of the present to give rise to the future” (Miller 2007, 347)—by learning to create scenarios that help organizations plan for the future. The method dis...

Billions of dollars and hundreds of millions of hours are invested every year in executive education. However, much of this investment dies in a familiar “Valley of Death” (VoD) wherein what is learned in the classroom is not applied when the strategist returns back to work. Based on 30 in-depth interviews and live observation, we investigate the a...

On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of Technology Forecasting & Social Change, we review the evolution of corporate and organizational foresight within the journal and look ahead to the coming decade. We apply a systematic literature review process to identify the major contributions in this area of foresight theory and practice covering five d...

In this essay, which is a reply to Chermack’s (2019) response to our article, the authors develop the most constructive feedback in the aforementioned response essay and then respond to more critical comments. As we shall see, in parallel with science and technology studies (STS) literature on the public understanding of science, the authors propos...

This dissertation attempts to deepen the intellectual traffic between Scenario Planning and Science and Technology Studies. It does this by taking on the lenses of empirical research of practice at the sites of the production of futures in facilitated scenario planning workshops and the certified knowledge produced about futures and scenarios in ac...

In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowledge the concerns voiced in futures studies that while...

Purpose – This paper asks “Why is the future in futures studies plural?” The attitude toward inquiry, based on post-actor-network theory (ANT) literature, positions philosophical questions about the ontological character of the future within the context of “planning” for it (i.e. in practice). Multiplicity, as a post-ANT sensibility, helps one make...