Matthew R Evans

• Doctor of Philosophy
• Provost at Queen's University

Silver and downy birch (Betula pendula Roth and B. pubescens Ehrhs) are pioneer species which play an important role in forest regeneration in disturbed areas. Knowledge of birch seed production and dispersal is key to making good predictions of the persistence and colonization of birch. Both processes can be affected by the density of trees in the...

Phenotypic variation is often used to delineate species and subspecies boundaries. Statistical analysis of phenotypic variation within a species is helpful both for understanding biodiversity and for its conservation. At least three named subspecies of barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) have distributions that span China, yet, to date, no systematic s...

Novel pests and diseases are becoming increasingly common, and often cause additional mortality to host species in the newly contacted communities. This can alter the structure of the community up to, and including, the extinction of host species. In the last 20 years, ash dieback (ADB) disease has spread into Europe from East Asia. It has caused s...

A tangled web of vicious circles, driven by cultural issues, has prevented ecology from growing strong theoretical roots. Now this hinders development of effective conservation policies. To overcome these barriers in view of urgent societal needs, we propose a global network of postgraduate theoretical training programs.

A scientific animation of our paper "Abrupt events and population synchrony in the dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis" available online at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=64U_wtkDeHs&feature=youtu.be

Bovine Tuberculosis data on a monthly time step from 1996 - 2016 spatially replicated across all GB counties

Disease control strategies can have both intended and unintended effects on the dynamics of infectious diseases. Routine testing for the harmful pathogen Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) was suspended briefly during the foot and mouth disease epidemic of 2001 in Great Britain. Here we utilize bTB incidence data and mathematical models to demonstrate how a...

Phenotypic differentiation is common among populations that have large geographic distributions. One proposed mechanism driving phenotype divergence is sexual selection, which predicts that trait differences among closely related populations are underlain by variation in reproductive performance. Here, we examined a population of Asian Barn Swallow...

Wind has been proposed as a driving factor in determining vegetation patterns, but there are few dynamic models that include both vegetation and wind. In this paper, we present a dynamic model to investigate how a vegetation pattern is generated and affected by wind. In the model, the effects of prevailing wind and non-prevailing wind on sand and v...

Climate change is regarded as one of the major concerns of the 21st Century, with mean temperatures expected to increase by about 3 °C over the next 100 years. Species responses to climate change are not consistent, with some species apparently able to respond more quickly than others, thus producing changes in community structure. One increasingly...

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) poses a serious threat for agricultural industry in several countries, it involves potential interactions between wildlife and cattle and creates societal problems in terms of human-wildlife conflict. This study addresses connectedness network analysis, the spatial, and temporal dynamics of TB between cattle in farms and th...

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) poses a serious threat for agricultural industry in several countries, it involves potential interactions between wildlife and cattle and creates societal problems in terms of human-wildlife conflict. This study addresses connectedness network analysis, the spatial, and temporal dynamics of TB between cattle in farms and th...

Abstract Woodlands provide valuable ecosystem services, and it is important to understand their dynamics. To predict the way in which these might change, we need process-based predictive ecological models, but these are necessarily very data intensive. We tested the ability of existing datasets to provide the parameters necessary to instantiate a w...

An important driver of the evolution of animal coloration is sexual selection operating on traits that are used to transmit information to rivals and potential mates, which has a major impact on fitness. Reflectance spectrometry has become a standard color-measuring tool, especially after the discovery of tetrachromacy in birds and their ability to...

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is a chronic disease in cattle that causes a serious food security challenge to the agricultural industry in terms of dairy and meat production. In GB, Scotland has had a risk based surveillance testing policy under which high risk herds are tested frequently, and in Sept 2009 was officially declared as TB free. Wales have...

The predation of wildlife by domestic cats (Felis catus) is a complex problem: Cats are popular companion animals in modern society but are also acknowledged predators of birds, herpetofauna, invertebrates, and small mammals. A comprehensive understanding of this conservation issue demands an understanding of both the ecological consequence of owni...

Allometry and growth rates of 8 forest species in the UK. The data were collected from two United Kingdom woodlands - Wytham Woods and Alice Holt. Here we present data from 582 individual trees of eight taxa in the form of summary variables. In addition the raw data files containing the variables from which the summary data were obtained. Large sam...

Plant survival is a key factor in forest dynamics and survival probabilities often vary across life stages. Studies specifically aimed at assessing tree survival are unusual and so data initially designed for other purposes often need to be used; such data are more likely to contain errors than data collected for this specific purpose. We investiga...

Bovine Tuberculosis (TB) is a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion about potential con-trol strat...

Lonergan [1] suggests that the claim made in our recent paper [2], that 'viewing simple models as the main way to achieve generality may be an obstacle to the progress of ecological research', will depend on the availability of data. We have discussed this issue in a recent article [3] in which we acknowledge that to obtain more robust predictions...

One of the most important measures of offspring performance is growth rate, which is often traded off against another important survival trait, immune function. A particular feature of ostrich chicks maintained in farmed environments is that cohorts of chicks vary widely in size. As parents can have a profound effect on the phenotype and fitness of...

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable t...

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable t...

Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in...

Detailed results of linear mixed effects models of individuals per phenotype (dependent variable). (TIF)

Phenotype inheritance probabilities. (DOC)

Detailed results of linear mixed effects models per phenotype. (DOC)

Full model description. (DOC)

Sexual selection requires both that there is heritable variation in traits related to fitness, and that either some of this variation is linked to traits of the parents, and/or that there are direct benefits of choosing particular individuals as mates. This suggests that if direct benefits are important offspring performance should be predicted by...

Results of nested analyses of variance that tested effects of rearing environment and nest-of-origin on chick immunocompetence and body mass, utilising data from all nestlings. a) Random effects model. b) Mixed model, including both random and fixed effects; fixed effects were divided into those that related to the chick’s rearing environment (i.e....

Results of the principal component analysis of plumage color traits in this study. Hue, saturation and brightness (HSB) scores were derived from the single yellow curve in the human-visible range from patches of feathers taken from standardised patches of the right and left sides of the bird’s yellow breast patch. Black color was assessed in a simi...

The full (unsimplified) ANOVA models. (DOCX)

Repeatability of nest site effects. (DOCX)

Modellers of biological, ecological, and environmental systems cannot take for granted the maxim 'simple means general means good'. We argue here that viewing simple models as the main way to achieve generality may be an obstacle to the progress of ecological research. We show how complex models can be both desirable and general, and how simple and...

We describe a new species of chameleon, Trioceros kinangopensis sp. nov., from Kinangop Peak in the Aberdare moun-tains, central highlands of Kenya. The proposed new species is morphologically and genetically distinct from other mem-ber of the bitaeniatus-group. It is morphologically most similar to T. schubotzi but differs in the lack of sexual si...

Secondary sexual signals are thought to indicate individual quality. In order to understand the evolutionary pressures that give rise to such traits it is important to understand the physiological mechanisms underlying their production. The black bib of the house sparrow Passer domesticus is known to function as a badge of social status in males. P...

Highlights ► Aparicio & Møller attack our 2007 paper suggesting the results are artefacts. ► They attempt this by generating random data. ► They fail to report results of statistical tests. ► When we analyse their data their results are not statistically significant. ► We conclude that their claims are unfounded.

The world is experiencing significant, largely anthropogenically induced, environmental change. This will impact on the biological world and we need to be able to forecast its effects. In order to produce such forecasts, ecology needs to become more predictive--to develop the ability to understand how ecological systems will behave in future, chang...

The world is changing at an unprecedented rate. In such a situation, we need to understand the nature of the change and to make predictions about the way in which it might affect systems of interest; often we may also wish to understand what might be done to mitigate the predicted effects. In ecology, we usually make such predictions (or forecasts)...

Recent studies of several species have reported a latitudinal cline in the circadian clock gene, Clock, which influences rhythms in both physiology and behavior. Latitudinal variation in this gene may hence reflect local adaptation to seasonal variation. In some bird populations, there is also an among-individual association between Clock poly-Q ge...

Speciation processes are largely determined by the relative strength of divergent selection versus the magnitude of gene flow. The barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) has a broad geographic distribution that encompasses substantial geographic variation in morphology and behavior. The European (H. r. rustica) and East-Mediterranean (H. r. transitiva) sub...

The handicap principle suggests that individuals of superior quality can more easily bear the cost of developing extravagant ornaments. Consequently, ornament size should provide reliable information about quality or condition. Previous models have largely ignored the process of ornament growth, focusing only on final ornament size. We model orname...

A new species of chameleon, Trioceros nyirit sp. nov., is described from the northwest highlands of Kenya. It is morphologically similar to T. hoehnelii and T. narraioca, possessing a short rostral appendage, but differs from them by having a straight or weakly curved parietal crest and forward-pointing rostral projection. A phylogeny based on mito...

A new species of chameleon, Trioceros nyirit sp. nov., is described from the northwest highlands of Kenya. It is morphologically similar to T. hoehnelii and T. narraioca, possessing a short rostral appendage, but differs from them by having a straight or weakly curved parietal crest and forward-pointing rostral projection. A phylogeny based on mito...

Whereas a rich literature exists for estimating population genetic divergence, metrics of phenotypic trait divergence are lacking, particularly for comparing multiple traits among three or more populations. Here, we review and analyze via simulation Hedges' g, a widely used parametric estimate of effect size. Our analyses indicate that g is sensiti...

Japanese quail selected for reduced (low-stress, LS) rather than exaggerated (high-stress, HS) plasma corticosterone response to brief restraint have consistently shown greater cloacal gland (CG) development, an androgen-dependent trait. In this study, the effects of testosterone implants on levels of plasma testosterone and CG development in castr...

The differential allocation hypothesis predicts that females should invest more in reproduction when paired with attractive males. We measured egg volume in Cape sugarbirds (Promerops cafer), a sexually dimorphic passerine, in relation to paternity of the offspring and in response to an experimental tail length treatment. We manipulated tail length...

Badges of status function in many birds within a social context to establish dominance hierarchies and reduce antagonistic encounters. In order to maintain the honesty of the signalling system, such badges must be costly to produce or to maintain. The chest bib of the house sparrow functions as a badge of status and changes in size are known to be...

Several decades of research have produced a large number of studies that examine the effects of hormones on physiology, behaviour and morphology. In the last fifteen years there has been considerable interest from evolutionary bi-ologists on the impact of hormones, especially testosterone, on aspects of physiology in particular immune function. Int...

Extrapair mating is known to occur in many animals and potentially has a significant influence on reproductive success. Female extrapair mate choice may explain the occurrence of exaggerated ornaments in socially monogamous species, but the influence of ornamentation on extrapair mating success has rarely been investigated experimentally. Cape suga...

A tradeoff between immune response and life history traits, in particular growth rate, has been documented in various bird species. Ostriches are fast-growing birds and a typical feature of cohorts is that offspring often differ greatly in size. We investigated the relationship between hatching date and growth rate of chicks and both cell-mediated...

The immunocompetence handicap hypothesis (ICHH) suggests that the male sex hormone testosterone has a dual effect; it controls the development and expression of male sexually selected signals, and it suppresses the immune system. Therefore only high quality males are able to fully express secondary sexual traits because only they can tolerate the i...

The handicap theory of sexual selection suggests that females prefer mates who display extravagant ornaments that advertise their quality or condition. It is often assumed that as such ornamental traits undergo sexually-selected exaggeration, they must inevitably become more sensitive to condition, and thus more informative. Here, we show that this...

It has been suggested that secondary sexual ornamentation signals male ability to resist infections, as only high-quality individuals are able to invest both in high immune defence and elaborate ornament expression. Such ornaments could thus serve as indicators of male quality and could be used by females in choosing mates. Ostriches are sexually d...

Life history theory predicts that females should modify their investment in a particular breeding attempt according to the likelihood of its success, as the investment of females in reproduction is typically higher than that of males. The ostrich mating system is promiscuous, and is thus a particularly interesting one in which to investigate differ...

Sensitivity analyses of population projection matrix (PPM) models are often used to identify life-history perturbations that will most influence a population's future dynamics. Sensitivities are linear extrapolations of the relationship between a population's growth rate and perturbations to its demographic parameters. Their effectiveness depends o...

The House Sparrow Passer domesticus is traditionally associated with human habitation. However, the species has undergone dramatic declines in many urban areas in north-western Europe. There are many theories as to why this decline has occurred, but the lack of data on House Sparrow numbers prior to their decline has hampered efforts to investigate...

The alpine zone of Mount Kenya is a typical equatorial, high-altitude habitat with a harsh environment, large fluctuations in physical conditions and an impoverished flora and fauna. A common flowering plant is Lobelia telekii, which has large inflorescences with up to 2000 flowers. The long hanging bracts of this plant ameliorate the physical envi...

In order to be elaborated by sexual selection, sexual ornaments must vary perceptibly and genetically among individuals in natural populations. Rather little is known about ornament variation in monogamous species, in which sexual selection should act more weakly than in polygynous species. We report phenotypic variation in feather ornament size (e...

The effects of environmental stress on the physiology and behaviour of higher vertebrates has become an important avenue of research in recent years. Evidence from recent studies has suggested that the avian stress-related hormone corticosterone (CORT) may play a role in immunocompetence and sexual selection. We tested whether CORT is immunosuppres...

The existence of consistent individual differences in behavioral strategies ("personalities" or coping styles) has been reported in several animal species. Recent work in great tits has shown that such traits are heritable and exhibit significant genetic variation. Free-living birds respond to environmental stresses by up-regulating corticosterone...

The importance of stress as a factor in influencing life history strategies has received considerable attention in recent years, because it appears to have a substantial impact on an individual's behaviour and physiology. Birds respond to environmental and social stressors by the production of corticosterone, a glucocorticoid hormone released by th...

Many studies have focused on tail ornamentation in birds, but not all tail shapes have been studied in depth. Graduated and pin tails have received less attention than forked tails, despite being more likely, in terms of aerodynamic theory, to be honest signals. We report morphological variation in live specimens of two sexually dimorphic passerine...

Models of sexual selection suggest that mate-choice preferences are favored because differences between males in their degree of ornamental exaggeration convey useful information about the direct or indirect benefits they have to offer [1-5]. Such arguments assume that variation in male ornament size can be attributed to variation in the degree of...

The original immunocompetence handicap hypothesis (ICHH) suggested that testosterone has a handicapping effect in males by both promoting the development of sexual signals and suppressing immune function. A modified version, the stress-linked ICHH, has recently proposed that testosterone is immunosuppressive indirectly by increasing production of c...

In mammals, stress hormones have profound influences on spatial learning and memory. Here, we investigated whether glucocorticoids influence cognitive abilities in birds by testing a line of zebra finches selectively bred to respond to an acute stressor with high plasma corticosterone (CORT) levels. Cognitive performance was assessed by spatial and...

Vertebrates respond to environmental stressors through the neuro-endocrine stress response, which involves the production of glucocorticoids. We have selected independent, duplicate divergent lines of zebra finches for high, low and control corticosterone responses to a mild stressor. This experiment has shown that over the first four generations,...

Quantitative conservation methodologies such as Population Viability Anal-ysis (PVA) require reliable estimates of life history parameters such as breeding success. The utility of such metrics for egg-laying species is complicated by the fact that the mortality of eggs and juveniles can occur both randomly and independently over time, or catastroph...

The immunocompetence handicap hypothesis was formulated 12 years ago in an attempt to offer a proximate mechanism by which female choice of males could be explained by endocrine control of honest signalling. The hypothesis suggested that testosterone has a dual effect in males of controlling the development of sexual signals while causing immunosup...

In birds, elongated tails are one of the most common and most studied ornaments. However, the tail also has an aerodynamic function, playing a role in turning and slow flight. If a tail is to function as an ornament, then there will be an inevitable conflict between the aerodynamic role and the signaling role. Aerodynamic theory has developed to th...

The immunocompetence handicap hypothesis (ICHH) suggests that dominance signals are costly because their development is controlled by testosterone, which is immunosuppressive. Signal control therefore links an increased disease risk with a high quality signal. The chest bib of the house sparrow, Passer domesticus, is a signal known to be related to...

A prediction of handicap and signalling theories is that there should be a positive relationship between ornament size and viability. This prediction was tested in scarlet-tufted malachite sunbirds (Nectarinia johnstoni). These birds are endemic to the high-altitude zones of East African mountains. They are bright iridescent green with elongated ce...

Delta-wing theory, which predicts the aerodynamics of aircraft like the Concorde, is the conventional explanation for the way in which a bird's tail operates in flight. Recently, doubt has been cast on the validity of applying a theory devised for supersonic aircraft to the small tails of slow-flying birds. By testing delta-wing models and birds' t...

Barrow's Goldeneye (Bucephala islandica) and Bufflehead (B. albeola) are cavity-nesting waterfowl that have received considerable attention in studies using nest boxes, but little is known about their nesting ecology in natural cavities. We found larger clutch size, lower nesting success, and different major predators for Barrow's Goldeneyes nestin...

Birds appear to use their tails during flight, but until recently the aerodynamic role that tails fulfil was largely unknown. In recent years delta-wing theory, devised to predict the aerodynamics of high-performance aircraft, has been applied to the tails of birds and has been successful in providing a model for the aerodynamics of a bird's tail....

Barrow's Goldeneye (Bucephala islandica) and Bufflehead (B. albeola) are cavity-nesting waterfowl that have received considerable attention in studies using nest boxes, but little is known about their nesting ecology in natural cavities. We found larger clutch size, lower nesting success, and different major predators for Barrow's Goldeneyes nestin...

Sexually selected signals of individual dominance have profound effects on access to resources, mate choice and gene flow. However, why such signals should honestly reflect individual quality is poorly understood. Many such signals are known to develop under the influence of testosterone. We conducted an experiment in male house sparrows in which t...

The morphology of a bird's tail may result from compromises between aerodynamic efficiency, phylogenetic constraints and selection for non-aerodynamic characteristics, such as mate attraction. A good example of a trait shaped by trade-offs between aerodynamic efficiency and reproductive benefits mediated through female preference is the tail stream...

To display to females, male wrens, Troglodytes troglodytes, use cock nests built on their territories. Nest building starts about a month before the first females begin egg laying. The timing of nest building is highly variable between males with up to 8 weeks separating the earliest from the latest males to initiate this display activity. Males th...

Conspicuous secondary sexual traits may have evolved as handicap-revealing signals or as badges of status. We present results of an experiment using males of the sexually dimorphic house sparrow (Passer domesticus), that support the idea that the male-specific bib can be both a handicap-revealing signal and a reliable badge indicating the physical...

The elongated tail of the male barn swallow ( Hirundo rustica ) is regarded as one of the classic examples of a male trait exaggerated by female choice. However, recently a hypothesis has been proposed suggesting that the streamers, or elongated outer tail feathers, may aid aerodynamic performance through the Norberg mechanism, providing lift at sl...

Many bird species have patches of colour in their plumage, contrasting with their basic coloration, which are used to display and signal status to conspecifics. These are called ’badges of status’, because they are believed to be low-cost signals of social status. For a signalling system to be evolutionarily stable, cheating must be controlled. The...

Of the three species of hirundine that breed sympatrically across the U.K., one, the barn swallow, has outer tail feathers elongated into streamers, whereas the other two species, the house martin and the sand martin, do not. The tail streamer of the barn swallow is regarded as a classic example of a sexually selected trait. Recent evidence, howeve...

There has teen considerable recent interest in the effects of life-history decisions on immunocompetence in birds. If immunocompetence is limited by available resources, then trade-offs between investment in life-history components and investment in immunocompetence could be important in determining optimal life-history traits. For this to be true:...

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For intersexual selection to occur, it is necessary that females choose between males. It is now well appreciated that constraints exist, which preclude females sampling all the available males in a population. These constraints are likely to have caused the evolution of sampling rules (such as the “best-of-n” rule) by which females sample males. H...

Sexual selection results when one sex, usually females, discriminates among members of the opposite sex during mate choice. It is interesting because it is a mechanism by which those traits used in mate choice can become exaggerated in a way that is apparently detrimental, except in terms of mating, to the bearer of the ornaments¹. One of the class...