Matteo Spada

Zurich University of Applied Sciences | ZHAW · Institute of Sustainable Development (INE)

Energy security is a multi-faceted and trans-disciplinary concept, which has significantly broadened over time beyond its original focus on security of supply. Diversity and geopolitical aspects have been a major concern for a long time, but consideration of hybrid threats only came into public focus with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and especi...

Organized into a global network of critical infrastructures, the oil & gas industry remains to this day the main energy contributor to the world's economy. Severe accidents occasionally occur resulting in fatalities and disruption. We build an oil & gas accident graph based on more than a thousand severe accidents for the period 1970-2016 recorded...

This dataset comprises three files with the raw chain-of-events attributes used in this study for natural gas, refinery and tanker accidents as retrieved from PSI's ENSAD database. For a detailed description see the corresponding publication: A. Mignan, M. Spada, P. Burgherr, Z. Wang, D. Sornette (to be published) Dynamics of Severe Accidents in t...

High safety standards of operators and regulators for dams in Switzerland require periodic assessments of risk mitigation measures at dams. Therefore, risk assessments need to include the estimation of life loss (LL) due to a potential dam break. This study demonstrated the benefits of applying the HEC-LIFESim software for modelling LL due to the i...

In this study, a comparative accident risk assessment with focus on deep geothermal energy systems in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries is presented. The evaluation of deep geothermal energy systems often focused on geotechnical risks, such as induced seismicity, and social acceptance rather than accident r...

Composite Indicators (CIs, a.k.a. indices) are increasingly used as they can simplify interpretation of results by condensing the information of a plurality of underlying indicators in a single measure. This paper demonstrates that the strength of the correlations between the indicators is directly linked with their capacity to transfer information...

A web-based software, called MCDA Index Tool (https://www.mcdaindex.net/), is presented in this paper. It allows developing indices and ranking alternatives, based on multiple combinations of normalization methods and aggregation functions. Given the steadily increasing importance of accounting for multiple preferences of the decision-makers and as...

The Composite Indicator Analysis and Optimization (CIAO) tool v.2 is an expansion of the automated Matlab menu-version of the approach presented by Becker et al. (2017)* for the advanced assessment of Composite Indicators (CIs). The CIAO tool allows users to: 1. Perform a detailed examination of the linear and nonlinear relationships among (i) the...

Uncertainties in instantaneous dam-break floods are difficult to assess with standard methods (e.g., Monte Carlo simulation) because of the lack of historical observations and high computational costs of the numerical models. In this study, polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) was applied to a dam-break flood model reflecting the population of large co...

This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911–2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non‐OECD without China). A B...

The interest in studying energy systems' resilience is increasing due to a rising awareness of the importance of having a secure energy supply. This growing trend is a result of a series of recent disruptions, among others also affecting electricity systems. Therefore, it is of crucial importance for policymakers to determine whether their country...

The MCDA Index Tool (http://www.mcdaindex.net/) is a web software that provides a practical and straightforward guide for the construction of indices and rankings. In particular, it contains a set of steps that can help developing indices by learning and assessing the quality of the outputs. Key features include robustness assessment of the outcome...

The accident risk of severe (≥5 fatalities) accidents in fossil energy chains (Coal, Oil and Natural Gas) is analyzed. The full chain risk is assessed for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 28 Member States of the European Union (EU28) and non-OECD countries. Furthermore, for Coal, Chinese data are analysed separately for...

Natural gas covers more than 20% of Europe’s primary energy demand. A potential disruption could lead to supply shortages with severe consequences for the European economy and society. History shows that such a vast and complex network system is prone to exogenous and endogenous disruptions. A dedicated large-scale dataset of the European natural g...

Indicator-based approaches are suitable to assess multi-dimensional problems. In order to compare a set of alternatives, one strategy is to normalize individual indicators to a common scale and aggregate them into a comprehensive score. This study proposes the Electricity Supply Resilience Index (ESRI), which is a measure of a nation's electricity...

The impacts of energy accidents are of primary interest for risk and resilience analysts, decision makers, and the general public. They can cause human health and environmental impacts, economic and societal losses, which justifies the interest in developing models to mitigate these adverse outcomes. We present a classification model for sorting en...

ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION (ESI) Advancing hazard assessment of energy accidents in the natural gas sector with rough set theory and decision rules Marco Cinelli1,*,^, Matteo Spada2, Miłosz Kadziński3, Grzegorz Miebs3, Peter Burgherr2 1 Future Resilient Systems (FRS), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zürich, Singapore-ETH Centr...

This study analyses the risk of severe (≥ 5 fatalities) accidents caused by natural hazards within fossil energy chains (Coal, Oil and Natural Gas). To assess the risk and its uncertainty, a Hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (HABC) is applied on the data collected in the Paul Scherrer Institute's ENergy-related Severe Accident Database...

The comparative evaluation of accident risks in the energy sector aims to produce consistent and quantitative risk performance indicators. The current study analyses the potential impacts of long-term energy scenarios on the overall accident risk of different country groups (OECD, EU28, non-OECD, North America (NAM), SE Asia) and individual countri...

Complex decision-making projects can normally not just recommend a single, ideal solution to the decision maker. Decision support should rather focus on finding the best compromise solution(s), accounting for necessary trade-offs between the factors used for the evaluations, which impedes an alternative to outperform all the others on all these fac...

To what extent can energy infrastructure become a tool for insurgents? Non-state, insurgent actors have increased attacks on critical energy infrastructure over time (Giroux et al., 2013). As critical energy infrastructure becomes more complex and interconnected, attacks on this infrastructure can have far reaching consequences not only for the eco...

Energy systems are regularly subject to major disruptions affecting economic activities, operation of infrastructure and the society as a whole. Resilience assessment comprises the pre-event oriented classical risk assessment as a central element, but it goes beyond that because it also includes and evaluates post-event strategies to improve the fu...

The Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) is the most authoritative resource for comparative risk analysis of accidents in the energy sector. Although ENSAD contains comprehensive, worldwide data, it is a non-spatial database in Microsoft Access format. Therefore, spatial characteristics of the data cannot be fully utilised as well as ana...

Moho map for Alpine and central Mediterranean region (Spada et al. 2013) showing European, Adria, and Tyrrhenia-Corsica Moho surfaces References: Spada, M., I. Bianchi, E. Kissling, N. Piana Agostinetti and S. Wiemer (2013): Combining controlled-source seismology and receiver function information to derive 3-D Moho topography for Italy. Geophys...

In this study, a dataset of worldwide hydropower dam accidents in the period 1896–2014 is used to analyze risks for different dam types, dam heights, stages of the dam life cycle, and accident causes in OECD and non-OECD w/o China countries. Evaluation of the risk for individual characteristics has proven to be meaningful in studies related to dam...

The Composite Indicator Analysis and Optimization (CIAO) tool v.1 is an automated Matlab menu-version of the approach presented by Becker et al. (2017)* for the advanced assessment of Composite Indicators (CIs). The CIAO tool allows users to: 1. Perform a detailed examination of the linear and nonlinear relationships among (i) the set of indicator...

A global dataset of refinery accidents for the years 1990-2016 was analyzed to evaluate the capacity of 16 attributes to differentiate between accidents that cause or not fatalities. For this purpose a Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA) analysis was carried out. The quality of approximation and accuracy measures confirmed that the establishe...

A global dataset of refinery accidents for the years 1990-2016 was analyzed to evaluate the capacity of 16 attributes to differentiate between accidents that cause or not fatalities. For this purpose a Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA) analysis was carried out. The quality of approximation and accuracy measures confirmed that the establishe...

National Risk Assessment (NRA) studies have recently received increased interest from governments, authorities and other involved stakeholders, e.g. civil protection agencies, emergency planners, etc. The NRA approach combines risk assessment methods and decision-making processes in a structured manner to support the prioritization and management o...

Within the broader context of energy security and critical infrastructure protection, the comprehensive assessment of accidents and their related consequences are of high priority for many stakeholders. The risk of accidents is commonly assessed by aggregated risk indicators, allowing for a consistent and direct comparison between energy chains and...

In this study, a first-of-its-kind comparative risk assessment is presented for accidents in the energy sector in EU28 with focus on hydrogen (H2) and selected fuel cells, namely proton exchange membrane (PEM), phosphoric acid (PAFC), alkaline (AFC) and molten carbonate (MCFC) fuel cells. The analysis is based on PSI's well-established framework fo...

This ascii - file contains the Moho map for greater Alpine region and Italy compiled and published by Spada et al. 2013, Geophys. J. Int. based on controlled source seismology data (see Waldhauser et al. 1998 and 2002), local earthquake tomography information (see Wagner et al. 2012) and receiver function data.

Several initiatives have been proposed nationally and internationally to collect information on accidents in the energy sector, assuming that a detailed, integral and targeted analysis of them can reveal the weak points in the energy infrastructure. The influence and relevance of the descriptors (e.g., country, energy chain, infrastructure type) of...

With the economic establishment of the shale gas exploitation, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have become nowadays common procedures, but not without any controversy. In parallel, the emergent case of deep geothermal energy systems is claimed to not have much to do with the fracking process. Through an intensive review of the availabl...

Electricity systems are exposed to a whole range of exogenous and endogenous disruptions. In recent years, despite technological advancements, new policies, improved safety standards and stricter regulatory requirements, such electricity systems disruptions did occur. This calls for resilience assessment, which is the ability to plan and prepare fo...

Refinery accidents were analyzed, combining data from the accident database ENSAD with information on refinery configuration. Refineries were also assigned to four clusters reflecting different operating practices (USA, Europe, Russia, Other). The main objectives were to calculate cluster accident frequencies and trends, assess a potential relation...

National Risk Assessment (NRA) studies have recently received increased interest from governments, authorities and other involved stakeholders, e.g., civil protection agencies, emergency planners, etc. The NRA approach combines risk assessment methods and decision-making processes in a structured manner to support the prioritization and management...

On the 13th of May 2014 a fire related incident in the Soma coal mine in Turkey caused 301 fatalities and more than 80 injuries. This has been the largest coal mine accident in Turkey, and in the OECD country group, so far. This study investigated if such a disastrous event should be expected, in a statistical sense, based on historical observation...

The risks of technological accidents in the energy sector and their potentially disastrous effects have been analyzed over the past decades, and are nowadays generally recognized to constitute a key factor in an encompassing assessment of energy security. In contrast, the issue of intentional attacks on energy infrastructures has received increased...

As a part of comprehensive analysis of current and future energy systems we carried out numerous analyses of health effects of a wide spectrum of electricity supply technologies including advanced ones, operating in various countries under different conditions. The scope of the analysis covers full energy chains, i.e. fossil, nuclear and renewable...

Oil and its derivatives are crucial components of economic growth and prosperity globally. The economic and social gains from producing, trading, and consuming oil are readily estimated and observed. How- ever, during each of the phases of oil production and trade, beginning with exploration and extraction, physical damages, injuries and fatalities...

This study analyzes the risk of accidental oil spills from tankers. It builds upon the historical experience availa-ble in the Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD), covering the period 1970-2012. Global and regional spill risk was evaluated, using a four-step approach. First, a threshold analysis using maximum likelihood estimation was c...

This study analyzes the risk of severe fatal accidents within the full fossil energy chains causing five or more fatalities. The risk is quantified separately for OECD and non-OECD countries. In addition for the Coal chain, Chinese data are analyzed separately because it has been shown that data prior to 1994 were subject to strong underreporting....

As a part of comprehensive analysis of current and future energy systems we carried out numerous analyses of health effects of a wide spectrum of electricity supply technologies including advanced ones, operating in various countries under different conditions. The scope of the analysis covers full energy chains, i.e. fossil, nuclear and renewable...

This chapter is structured in five parts. The introduction discusses the relevance of accidents in the energy sector and puts them into the broader perspective of sustainability, energy security, and critical infrastructure protection. Furthermore, an overview of various risk assessment concepts is given. The second part provides a detailed overvie...

The distinct change in chemistry and petrophysical parameters across the crust-mantle boundary expresses itself as a specific feature in all tomographic images obtained by seismic methods. While active and passive refraction seismology image the Moho as the famous first-order discontinuity with near-vertical reflection seismology we see it as a nar...

The accurate definition of 3-D crustal structures and, in primis, the Moho depth, are the most important requirement for seismological, geophysical and geodynamic modelling in complex tectonic regions. In such areas, like the Mediterranean region, various active and passive seismic experiments are performed, locally reveal information on Moho depth...

We explore the idea that the relative size distribution of earthquakes, quantified using the so-called b-value, is negatively correlated with differential stress. Because the maximum possible differential stress increases linearly in the brittle upper crust, we expect to find a decrease of b with depth. We test this expectation for seven continenta...

Estimating the occurrence probability of natural disasters is critical for setting construction standards and, more generally, prioritizing risk mitigation efforts. Tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean region has traditionally been estimated by considering so-called most credible scenarios of tsunami impact for limited geographical regions, but litt...

The accurate definition and characterization of relevant seismic sources are critical steps in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). This is particularly challenging in low-seismicity regions because observation periods are relatively short, seismicity is often diffuse, and active faults are difficult to identify. In such regions, seismog...

Following several large tsunami events around the world in the recent years, the tsunami hazard is becoming an increasing concern. The traditional way of assessing tsunami hazard has been through deterministic scenario calculations which provide the expected wave heights due to a given tsunami source, usually a worst-case scenario. For quantitative...

Assessment of seismic hazard in a country is the first important step for the definition of a seismic building code. The goal of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is to quantify the rate of exceeding specific ground-motion levels at a site, given all possible earthquakes. A critical step in PSHA is the accurate definition and character...