Matteo Bugamelli

Matteo Bugamelli
Banca d'Italia · Economic and Financial Structure

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59
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Publications

Publications (59)
Article
Full-text available
Using both macro and firm-level data, we provide an in-depth analysis of Italy’s goods exports relative to its three main trading partners (Germany, France and Spain) in order to gauge the causes of its relative underperformance prior to the 2008–2009 crisis and to assess whether the improvement observed since 2010 reflects cyclical or structural f...
Article
Full-text available
We provide an in-depth analysis of Italy’s export performance relative to the other main euro-area countries over the last two decades, using both macro and micro data. We argue that the relatively unsatisfactory performance of Italian goods exports until the eve of the 2008-09 crisis is the result of the interplay between the appreciation of the r...
Article
Does tougher law enforcement positively affect political participation? This paper addresses this question, which hinges upon the causal impact of formal institutions on informal ones, by using a historical event from 19th century Italy. This event was the Pica Law, which was introduced in 1863 to fight a surge of criminal violence in Southern Ital...
Article
We analyze the impact of increased import penetration from China on the dynamics of firm-level output prices in Italy. Accounting for potential endogeneity biases we find a significant and negative causal relationship: a 0.1 percentage point higher Chinese import penetration restrains price growth by 0.17 percentage points per year. This relationsh...
Article
How and why are the dynamics of foreign and domestic sales correlated at the firm level? The empirical answers to the question, which have bearings on the transmission of shocks and on the design of stabilization policies, are rather mixed. Some papers argue for a positive correlation, based on the impact of liquidity constraints in financing expor...
Article
Full-text available
This paper provides a new cross-country evaluation of competitiveness, focusing on the linkages between productivity and export performance among European economies. We use the information compiled in the Trade module of CompNet to establish new stylized facts regarding the joint distributions of the firm-level exports performance and productivity...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Drawing from confidential firm-level balance sheets in 11 European countries, the paper presents a novel sectoral database of comparable productivity indicators built by members of the Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet) using a newly developed research infrastructure. Beyond aggregate information available from industry statistics of Eurost...
Article
How and why are the dynamics of foreign and domestic sales correlated at the firm level? The empirical answers to the question, which have bearings on the transmission of shocks and on the design of stabilization policies, are rather mixed. Some papers argue for a positive correlation, based on the impact of liquidity constraints in financing expor...
Article
This paper analyzes the effects of international trade on the relative demand for skilled workers in Italian local labor markets. We find that exports cause a sizable skill upgrading in the labor force by increasing the average level of education of the workforce and the share of white-collars workers.
Article
This paper reviews the main macroeconomic trends and the debate on policy priorities in Italy since the advent of EMU. It argues that, in the decade up to the outbreak of the global crisis (1998-2007), in Italy the reform process came to a virtual standstill and fiscal policy was inconsistent with the commitments taken on at the European level. The...
Article
Full-text available
Il lavoro documenta la recente evoluzione del sistema industriale italiano e discute i principali fattori che influiscono sulla sua competitività. Dall’analisi emerge un quadro di diffusa debolezza. In tutti i comparti industriali i livelli produttivi sono inferiori a quelli precedenti la crisi; con l’eccezione dei comparti alimentare e farmaceutic...
Article
Full-text available
The lag in innovation in Italy vis-Ã -vis the other main industrial countries is one of the effects of the fragmentation of the production system into many small firms that have trouble bearing the high cost of R&D and taking the related risks. Such other causes as shortages in human capital for management and R&D and excessive labor flexibility, u...
Article
This paper asks whether and why advanced countries differ in their ability to export to China and India. We exploit a newly collected, comparable cross-country survey of 15,000 European manufacturing firms (EFIGE). The dataset contains information on firms’ international activities and characteristics such as size and productivity, governance and m...
Article
The paper examines the traits, strategies and performances of leading Italian export firms before and during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The sample analysed is based on Italian export firms that reported foreign sales of at least Euro fifteen million in 2007. The companies feature higher-than-average levels of productivity and foreign direct...
Article
We assess the impact of low-skilled immigration on capital intensity. We first present a model characterized by frictions in the labor market and firms' asymmetric information on workers' skills and show that firms can react to the immigration-induced reduction of their workforce's skill level by increasing the capital-labor ratio. We test the pred...
Article
The economic performance of a country depends, among other things, on the strategies and structures of its firms. In the framework that is designed by institutions and policies and determined by technology and macroeconomic cycles, entrepreneurs decide how to allocate available resources in order to face off competitors and to hook up with demand c...
Article
Full-text available
This report uses new, comparable crosscountry data on the international activities of 15,000 firms in Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. The authors find that size, productivity, the skill intensity of the workforce and the ability to innovate are positively related to firms' export performance in all countries....
Article
Full-text available
In this paper we use a unique dataset of Italian manufacturing firms that includes firm-level price data to investigate whether increased penetration of Chinese products affects the competitive environment in an advanced country like Italy. Instrumenting import penetration from China to account for potential endogeneity biases, we find that the inc...
Article
This paper examines the impact on the Italian productive system of the recent and severe (the deepest since the Second World War) economic and financial crisis. The picture offered by aggregate national accounts data is supplemented with information at firm level drawn from the Bank of Italy’s annual Survey of Industrial and Service Firms (also kno...
Article
This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection a...
Article
In this paper we examine the impact of membership in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) on trade between PTA members. Rather than considering the impact of PTA membership on the volume of trade we consider the impact of membership on the structure of trade. For a large sample of countries over the period 1962-2000 we find that membership in a PTA...
Article
In the last decade the Italian economy has underperformed compared both with the previous decades and with the main European countries. It is widely acknowledged that this evolution reflects unresolved structural problems, which have become more urgent in view of the major changes in the world economy (the new technological paradigm, globalization,...
Article
We study the effects of the world economic crisis which began in 2007 on the Italian productive system. National accounts data are supplemented with information gathered in spring 2009 from the Bank of Italy’s survey on industrial and service firms, and from interviews with about 70 of their managers. Our sources confirm that this recession is th...
Article
Since output growth volatility has negative effects on growth, poverty and welfare, especially in poorer countries, it is crucial to identify the country-specific factors that affect it. The empirical literature has focused mostly on financial development, policy distortions and globalization variables. Among the latter, attention has been directed...
Article
Stimulated by imperfect competition/sticky prices framework of the new open economy macroeconomics, empirical research has reconsidered the role of exchange rates in international adjustment. This paper reassesses the link between exchange rates and traded good prices by estimating pricing-to-market equations for the five main euro area countries o...
Article
The unsatisfactory performance of Italian export volumes in the last decade has been attributed to three factors: the product specialization still centered around traditional sectors, the small firm size and the exceptional rise in export unit values. This paper analyzes the latter with the aim of testing three alternative hypotheses: i) measuremen...
Book
Full-text available
This Bruegel blueprint analyses, within the framework of the EFIGE (European Firms in a Global Economy) project, the export and foreign investment performance of European firms. It is based on new cross-country data from 15,000 individual firms never available before. Written by Giorgio Barba Navaretti, Matteo Bugamelli, Gianmarco Ottaviano and Fab...
Article
Using Italian data over the period 1990-99, this paper estimates an export pricing equation along the lines traced in the Pricing-to-Market literature on exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). As compared to previous papers, we minimize aggregation and selection biases, by focusing on all destination markets (about 70) and all finely disaggregated prod...
Article
The debate in Italy on the recent disappointing performance of GDP growth has focused on the increasing competitive pressure exerted by firms located in the developing countries and specialized in key product sectors of Italian manufacturing. This paper contributes by explicitly quantifying the effects of this competition on the efficiency of Itali...
Article
In Italy the debate on the recent growth slowdown has focused on the increased competitive pressures by developing countries in sectors where Italy used to own a revealed comparative advantage. This paper aims at quantifying explicitly the effects of such pressures on the productivity of firms and manufacturing sectors in Italy by relying on the ex...
Article
This paper combines the literature on financial crises with that on international immigrations by investigating whether the increasingly large flows of workersÂ’ remittances can help reduce the probability of current account reversals. The rationale for this stands in the great stability and low cyclicality of remittances as compared to other priva...
Article
The authors combine the literature on financial crises in emerging markets and developing economies with that on international migrations by investigating whether the increasingly large flows of workers'remittances can help reduce the probability of current account reversals. The rationale for this stands in the great stability and low cyclicality...
Article
This paper tests whether the large, cheap, stable, and low-cyclical flows of workers’ remittances reduce the probability of current account reversals in recipient countries. Using a large panel of emerging and developing economies, we find that this is indeed the case: when remittances get above 3% of GDP, the relationship between a decreasing stoc...
Article
This paper estimates a pricing-to-market equation for Italy over the period 1990-99 with the aim of assessing the degree of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). As compared to previous works, we minimize aggregation and selection biases using export data on all products (about 700 from 4 digits of SITC) and all destination markets (about 70). On aver...
Article
Full-text available
This paper studies the complementarity between investment in information and communication technologies (ICT) and the related investment in human and organizational capital. Using firm-level data taken from a large sample of Italian manufacturing firms, an ICT marginal product much higher than its user cost is estimated. It is then argued that miss...
Article
Both macro and (still scarce) micro evidence support the idea that a new economy has emerged in the US (hidden but not killed by the adverse cyclical phase), not (yet) in Europe. Some have argued that the inadequacies of Europe's financial system are an important part of the explanation. This paper, after surveying the existing literature on the ne...
Article
Estimating on Italian data the empirical model proposed by Roberts and Tybout (1997), we find that that sunk costs of exports are quite relevant: an exporting firm at year t, which has therefore has already paid such costs, has a probability of exporting in the next year that is 70 percentage points greater than that of an otherwise identical non-e...
Article
Full-text available
Using a very large panel dataset of Italian manufacturing firms, we test an empirical model of foreign markets participation with sunk costs. The period of analysis (1982-1999) is exceptionally informative: the large fluctuations in the lira exchange rate determined substantial flows of firms in and out of foreign markets. We find that sunk costs o...
Article
Full-text available
Both macro and (still scarce) micro evidence support the idea that a new economy is emerging in the US, not (yet) in Europe. Some have argued that the inadequacies of EuropeÂ’s financial system are an important part of the explanation. This paper, after surveying the existing literature on the new productive paradigm and on the related financial as...
Article
This paper compares main European countries and the euro area specialization patterns. The analysis, that covers the period 1988-1997 and is based on a detailed sectoral breakdown, provides evidence to assess the degree of structural differences and convergence among European countries, which have become important issues since the birth of the Euro...
Article
Full-text available
RIVISTA ITALIANA DEGLI ECONOMISTI / a. V, n. 3, dicembre 2000 1. Introduzione Nell'ultimo decennio la forte spinta all'integrazione reale e finanziaria delle economie mondiali ha reso la localizzazione di parte delle attività pro-duttive e commerciali sui mercati esteri un aspetto centrale nelle strategie di impresa. Alcuni paesi in via di sviluppo...
Article
The propensity of European exporters to export to selected distant markets (% of exporters) SUMMARY Europe's position in the post-crisis world economy depends on the ability of its firms to carry through effective global export and produc- tion strategies. New data from 15,000 firms from seven countries shows that firm size, productivity, skill int...
Article
Full-text available
The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of immigration in Italian cities on the investment decisions by firms. First, we present a theoretical model which shows, in a partial equilibrium monopolis- tic competition framework, how firms endogenously respond to the skill level of their workforce by changing their investment decisions. Second, we...
Article
The recent international trade literature has highlighted the role of flnancial development for flrms' exports and therefore trade ∞ows. We address this issue using flrm-level data and, more importantly, an exogenous measure of local flnancial development in Italy, constructed by Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales (2004). We focus on the intensive and th...
Article
This paper investigates the impact of immigrant employment on investment in a sample of Italian manufacturing firms. We find that on average a larger share of immigrants, computed both at provincial- and firm- level, does not reduce firms' investment rate in machinery, while it has a negative effect on the acquisition of new software and databases....
Article
Full-text available
Firms exposed to foreign demand have larger incentives to inno-vate, if market size matters for innovation. We test this hypothesis using Italian firm data. We measure innovation as the probability of applying for a patent to the European Patent Office, whereas most of the existing papers focus either on productivity or other self-reported measure...
Article
Full-text available
The new literature on international migration has proposed theoret-ical models where migrations of skilled workers can have beneficial ef-fects on the country of origin ("brain gain"). The main two channels for such effects are the greater incentives to acquire education and technol-ogy transfer. Due to limited data availability, these questions ha...
Article
Full-text available
This Policy Brief is part of the EU-EFIGE (European Firms in a Global Economy) project which aims to address policy questions on the casual link between firm characteristics and internationalisation. This paper is based on a comprehensive survey of 15,000 firms across seven EU countries. The findings of this paper set the foundation for deeper inve...

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