Martín González Rozada

Universidad Torcuato di Tella · Departamento de Economía

This paper takes advantage of several reforms that provide time and cross sectional variation to identify the effects of unemployment insurance and severance payments on the duration of unemployment and on the separation probability in Argentina. Administrative data permits analysis of the duration of unemployment of covered spells with detailed in...

This paper examines the effects of the expansion of the water network in urban shantytowns in Argentina. We find large reductions in the presence, frequency and severity of diarrhoea episodes among children reached by network expansions relative to a control group. Moreover, expanded connections induce savings in water expenditures, as these famili...

This article analyzes the trends in income inequality and poverty among Argentine households during the nineties. We assess the effect of changes in labor force participation, unemployment, educational levels, and returns to individual characteristics on income inequality and poverty by using a microsimulation approach. We found that unemployment a...

This article shows that a large fraction of the time variability of emerging market bond spreads is explained by the evolution of global factors such as risk appetite, global liquidity and contagion from systemic events such as the Russian default. This link is robust to the inclusion of country-specific factors and helps to provide accurate long-r...

Objective To assess whether the introduction of comprehensive smoke-free legislation affected tourism in four Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries – Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago. Methods We compared the evolution of three tourism variables – tourist arrivals, tourist expenditure, and average length of stay – in a country i...

Unemployment insurance transfers should balance the provision of consumption to the unemployed with the disincentive effects on the search behavior. Developing countries face the additional challenge of informality. Workers can choose to hide their employment state and labor income in informal jobs, an additional form of moral hazard. To provide ev...

In this paper, we explore the role of trade in the evolution of labor share in Latin American countries. We use trade agreements with large economies (the United States, the European Union, and China) to capture the effect of sharp changes in trade. In the last two decades, labor share has displayed a negative trend among those countries that signe...

The literature on policies for the control of the tobacco epidemic suggests that increasing excise taxes on the consumption of tobacco products is the most cost-effective policy. Cigarette tax structure in Argentina is very complex. All the tax bases for cigarette consumption taxes are related and, therefore, any modification of a tax affects the c...

The literature on policies for the control of the tobacco epidemic suggests that increasing excise taxes on the consumption of tobacco products is the most cost-effective policy. The cigarette tax structure in Argentina is very complex. All the tax bases for cigarette consumption taxes are related and, therefore, any modification of a tax affects t...

In this paper, we analyze how inflation affects firms' price-setting behavior. For a class of menu cost models, we derive several predictions about how price setting changes with inflation both at very high and at near-zero inflation rates. Then, we present evidence supporting these predictions using product-level-data underlying Argentina's consum...

Objective: To estimate cigarette demand and to simulate a tax policy targeted to reduce tobacco consumption. Materials and methods: Demand was estimated using a vector error correction model. Simulation exercises present the impact of a tax increase on consumption and revenues. Results: Changes in real income and the real price of cigarettes affe...

Objective. Analyze short- and long-term elasticities of demand for cigarettes in El Salvador as a tool for supporting recommendations on tax increases to reduce prevalence and consumption through price increases. Methods. Demand for cigarettes in El Salvador was analyzed through an econometric time-series model using a database from El Salvador’s G...

Objective To assess how raising cigarette excise taxes in Peru might impact cigarette consumption, and to determine if higher taxes would be regressive. Methods Total demand price elasticity was estimated by income groups using two datasets: quarterly time-series data from 1993 – 2012 and data from a cross-sectional survey of income and expenses c...

Objective: Analyze short- and long-term elasticities of demand for cigarettes in El Salvador as a tool for supporting recommendations on tax increases to reduce prevalence and consumption through price increases. Methods: Demand for cigarettes in El Salvador was analyzed through an econometric time-series model using a database from El Salvador'...

We assess optimal unemployment benefit level and duration in a labor market with many informal jobs. Using administrative data from Argentina, a country with high informality, we exploit discontinuities in duration, and a reform that increases benefits. We find that increasing benefits hardly extends unemployment spells but raises re-employment wag...

We study empirically the role of cigarettes' prices on smoking onset and quitting in Argentina, using a continuous-time split population model. The findings in this paper suggest that increasing cigarettes' prices, using taxes, has a larger effect on the starting age of smoking than on the quitting age. In particular, at the mean starting age of 15...

Linear autoregressive (LAR) models poorly predict asset prices in nonlinear, regime-switching markets. In this article, the authors use SETAR, a threshold model that accounts for nonlinearities, to test for the existence of regime-switching in global equity markets. A comparison of SETAR's predictive power against that of LAR models suggests that S...

To describe the evolution of cigarettes' real price and affordability during the last decade in Argentina. To analyze the real price of cigarettes, the weighted average monthly price of a pack of 20 cigarettes was divided by the consumer price index (CPI) from 2004 to 2014. The relative income price (RIP) was evaluated for the same period, defining...

Raising cigarette taxes is an important public policy to reduce the use of tobacco. The appeal of increasing cigarette taxes is obvious. Since smoking is bad for one's health and for that of others as well, increasing prices, via taxes, will induce people to quit or cut back smoking improving their health. However, increasing cigarette taxes could...

Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions we study the effects of a rule that incorporates not only the interest rate but also the legal reserve requirements as instruments of the monetary policy. We evaluate the effectiveness of both instruments to accomplish the inflationary and/or financial stability objective...

We estimate versions of the Nelson–Siegel model of the yield curve of US government bonds using a Markov switching latent variable model that allows for discrete changes in the stochastic process followed by the interest rates. Our modeling approach is motivated by evidence suggesting the existence of breaks in the behavior of the US yield curve th...

Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with …nancial frictions we study the e¤ects of a rule that incorporates not only the interest rate but also the legal reserve requirements as instruments of the monetary policy. We evaluate the e¤ectiveness of both instruments to accomplish the inationary and/or …nancial stability objectives of t...

Model and DataGlobal Factors and SpreadsGlobal Factors then and NowRatingsPredictionsFinal RemarksNoteAbout the Authors

In this paper we estimate the impact of a conditional transfer program, the Bono de Desarrollo Humano, over several labor market outcomes in Ecuador. We use the BDH’s targeting mechanism and rely on a regression discontinuity (RD) strategy to isolate the causal effects of the program over the duration of unemployment, the probability of transiting...

We studied the impact of the recent smoke-free laws on the sales in bars and restaurants, in the city of Buenos Aires and in three provinces of Argentina. Using a quasi-experimental design and a difference-in-differences estimation procedure we found that the smoke-free laws did not have a statistically significant negative effect on sales in bars...

This article shows that a large fraction of the time variability of emerging market bond spreads is explained by the evolution of global factors such as risk appetite, global liquidity and contagion from systemic events such as the Russian default. This link is robust to the inclusion of country-specific factors and helps to provide accurate long-r...

Este trabajo examina los efectos de la expansión del agua en los barriadas urbanas de Argentina. Se encuentran grandes reducciones en la presencia, frecuencia y severidad de episodios de diarrea entre los niños de las viviendas que han sido alcanzadas por la expansión de la red. Aún más, las conexiones de la expansión de agua inducen ahorros ya que...

El presente libro como propósito avanzar en el estudio de la política macroeconómica en el MERCOSUR, y analizar los obstáculos y limitaciones de la coordinación macroeconómica dentro del bloque. El tema es de indiscutible relevancia a la luz de la profundización de las relaciones comerciales entre los socios desde la firma del tratado de Asunción e...

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se muestra que buena parte del grado de variación de los diferenciales de intereses de los bonos de mercados emergentes obedece al desenvolvimiento de factores mundiales tales como la disposición a aceptar riesgos (según se aprecia en el diferencial de bonos empresariales de alto rendimiento...

Abstract: The paper analyzes cyclical comovements in the Mercosur area differentiating idiosyncratic from common shocks. In the Mercosur (or any region for that matter) shocks can be country-specific, affecting only one country or a specific set of countries (for example, a weather-related shock, a domestic policy shock); or they can be common to t...

The objective of this paper is to estimate the elasticity of substitution in the demand for non-tradable goods relative to tradable goods in Argentina. This parameter plays a crucial role in the analysis of the macroeconomic equilibrium of a small open economy (Mendoza, Galindo and Izquierdo, 2003). Using two data sets, estimates of approximately 0...

The asymptotic distributions of cointegration tests are approximated using the Gamma distribution. The tests considered are for the I(1), the conditional I(1), as well as the I(2) model. Formulae for the parameters of the Gamma distributions are derived from response surfaces. The resulting approximation is flexible, easy to implement and more accu...

This objective of this paper is to estimate the elasticity of substitution in the demand for non-tradable goods relative to tradable goods in Argentina. This parameter plays a crucial role in the analysis of the macroeconomic equilibrium of a small open economy (Mendoza, Galindo and Izquierdo (2003)). Using two data sets we found estimates for this...

The paper analyzes cyclical comovements in the Mercosur area differentiating idiosyncratic from common shocks. In the Mercosur (or any region for that matter) shocks can be country-specific, affecting only one country or a specific set of countries (for example, a weather-related shock, a domestic policy shock); or they can be common to the entire...

We propose a new test, derived from a set of variance decompositions of a structural VAR, for the success of inflation targeting. In contrast to standard sacrifice ratios this test considers changes in the structure of real and nominal shocks; second moment effects. We find strong support for IT with 7 of the 9 countries in our sample having negati...

We study the finite sample properties of the most important methods of estimation of dynamic panel data models in a special class of small samples: a two-sided small sample (i.e., a sample in which the time dimension is not that short but the cross-section dimension is not that large). This case is encountered increasingly in applied work. Our main...

We analyze some characteristics of the higher education system in Argentina regarding equity and efficiency. Individuals attending the university belong to the top deciles of the income distribution and to relatively highly educated families. Almost 90% of the students in tuition-free public universities have higher than median per capita family in...

This paper complements the findings of Atal, Ñopo and Winder (2009) on gender and ethnic wage gaps for 18 Latin American countries circa 2005 by analyzing gender wage gaps for the same countries between circa 1992 and circa 2007. During this span the overall gender earnings gaps dropped about 7 percentage points, while the unexplained component dro...

Este libro presenta un tratamiento sistemático de las interrogantes macroeconómicas del bloque. ¿Puede sobrevivir el MERCOSUR con convertibilidad en Argentina y flotación en Brasil? ¿Es conveniente conformar una Unión Monetaria en el MERCOSUR? ¿Cuáles son los pasos que se requieren para llegar a la moneda única? ¿No es la dolarización una mejor opc...

In this paper we develop a methodology that allows us to quantify the effect of changes in unemployment rates on labor income inequality. We estimate individual earnings functions for employed people conditional on a working status polychotomous model and we establish a formal procedure to assign wages to unemployed workers. We simulate the probabi...

One of the main criticisms of unit root models is based on the theoretical fact that economic variables measured in rates cannot have unit roots. Nevertheless, standard unit root tests do not reject the existence of unit roots in many of those variables. In this paper we present a class of threshold models capable of replicating the behavior of eco...

One of the most cornmonly used and, at the same time. rejected models in finance and macroeconomics is the exact present value model (PVM), where a variable Yt is expressed as the expected value at time t of the sum of discounted future values of another variable Xt. This paper generalizes the PVM by making it non-exact (NEPVM) in a simple way, all...