Martin Hoesli

Martin Hoesli
University of Geneva | UNIGE · Department of Business Studies (HEC)

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209
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Publications

Publications (209)
Article
Accurate estimates of land values on a property-by-property basis are an important requirement for the effective implementation of land-based property taxes. We compare hedonic, residual, and matching techniques for mass appraisal of residential land values, using data from Maricopa County, Arizona. The first method involves a hedonic valuation mod...
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In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, non-core investments are gaining traction amongst institutional investors due to the shifting preference towards investment vehicles that position higher on the risk–return curve. Non-listed value-add real estate funds in Japan are one such vehicle. This research develops a comprehensive bespoke benchmark...
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Full-text available
In some applications of supervised machine learning, it is desirable to trade model complexity with greater interpretability for some covariates while letting other covariates remain a “black box”. An important example is hedonic property valuation modeling, where machine learning techniques typically improve predictive accuracy, but are too opaque...
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Purpose The article analyzes the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on commercial real estate prices, with a particular focus on European markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors start by highlighting caveats to bear in mind when referring to direct real estate indices. The authors then analyze the behavior of comm...
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We explore long-term patterns of the house price-income relationship across the 70 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. In line with a standard spatial equilibrium model, our empirical findings indicate that house price-income ratios are typically not stable even over the long run. In contrast, panel regression models that relate house prices to aggreg...
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Purpose The study aims to analyze the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on house prices. Design/methodology/approach The authors start by discussing the possibility that house price indexes may not fully incorporate the effects of the pandemic as of yet. Against the background of the pandemic, the authors then analyze economic and behavioral effect...
Article
Purpose Research impact has taken on increased importance at both a micro- and macro-level and is a key factor today in shaping the careers of real estate researchers. This has seen a range of research impact metrics become global benchmarks when assessing research impact at the individual academic level and journal level. Whilst recognising the li...
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This study investigates a question relevant to many investors: do the broad Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) return characteristics reflect those of the broad direct real estate markets. The paper makes several contributions to the literature in addition to using more recent data: (1) we use data for six countries (Australia, France, Germany, Ne...
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Big data applications are attracting increasing interest among urban researchers. One unexplored question is whether the inclusion of big data accessibility indices improves the accuracy of hedonic price models used for residential property valuation. This paper compares a big data index with an index derived from a regional travel demand model dev...
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze papers that have been published in the Journal of European Real Estate Research since its inception in 2008. Design/methodology/approach The author analyzes papers published from 2008 to 2019 in the Journal of European Real Estate Research by authors’ country of affiliation, by country of study and b...
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This study investigates how three regulatory reforms undertaken in the aftermath of the global financial crisis have affected returns of real estate companies. The three reforms are aimed at regulating different segments of the market – Basel III targets banks, and could restrict the availability of bank debt to the sector; the Alternative Investme...
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This research starts from the observation that common desmoothing models are likely to generate some extreme returns that will distort risk measurement and hence can lead to investment decisions that are suboptimal relative to those that would be made if a transaction‐based index were available. Thus, we propose to improve the desmoothing models by...
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Purpose The purpose of this paper to provide a discussion of the empirical evidence and contributing factors of the synchronization of house prices globally. Design/methodology/approach The author reviewed the main studies on house price synchronization and conducted an empirical analysis using OECD house price indices. A discussion of the contrib...
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Purpose: The article analyzes the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on house prices. Design/Methodology/Approach: We start by discussing the possibility that house price indexes may not fully incorporate the effects of the pandemic as of yet. Against the background of the pandemic, we then analyze economic and behavioral effects affecting house pri...
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the accuracy and volatility of different methods for estimating and updating hedonic valuation models. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply six estimation methods (linear least squares, robust regression, mixed-effects regression, random forests, gradient boosting and neural networks)...
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Using data for 70 U.S. metropolitan areas, this study explores spatial heterogeneity in house price dynamics. We use recent advances in panel econometrics that allow for spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and non-stationary but cointegrated data. We test for spatial differences and analyze the relationship between the price elastici...
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Full-text available
We conduct an empirical investigation of the exposure of U.S. REIT returns to commonality in liquidity. Taking advantage of the specific characteristics of REITs, we study three types of commonality in liquidity: within-asset commonality, cross-asset commonality (with the stock market), and commonality with the underlying property market. We find e...
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We show how a method that has been applied to commercial real estate markets can be used to produce high-frequency house price indexes for a city and for submarkets within a city. Our application of this method involves estimating a set of annual robust repeat sales regressions staggered by start date and then undertaking an annual-to-monthly (ATM)...
Article
Real estate constitutes a good laboratory to investigate the similarity of public and private asset returns and risks. We find evidence of a one-to-one long-term relation between public and private real estate performance. Also, the return volatilities do not differ significantly between the public and private markets regardless of investment horiz...
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Purpose Against the background of initiatives, which have taken place to foster real estate research in Europe, this article seeks to analyse important dimensions of that research. Design/methodology/approach The article investigates the evolution from 2000 to 2015 in the proportion of papers published by authors with a European affiliation in t...
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This research contributes to a better assessment of risk factors impacting non-listed real estate fund returns. Both macroeconomic and fund-specific factors are considered, additionally taking into account the phase of the real estate cycle. Using a rich database of fund-level data for Europe, we apply panel regression techniques with random effect...
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Using data for six metropolitan housing markets in three countries, this article provides a comparison of methods used to measure house price bubbles. We use an asset pricing approach to identify bubble periods retrospectively and then compare those results with results produced by six other methods. We also apply the various methods recursively to...
Article
Using data for six metropolitan housing markets in three countries, this article provides a comparison of methods used to measure house price bubbles. We use an asset pricing approach to identify bubble periods retrospectively and then compare those results with results produced by six other methods. We also apply the various methods recursively to...
Article
We show how a method that has been applied to commercial real estate markets can be used to produce high frequency house price indexes for a city and for submarkets within a city. Our application of this method involves estimating a set of annual robust repeat sales regressions staggered by start date and then undertaking an annual-to-monthly (ATM)...
Article
Using data for six metropolitan housing markets in three countries, this paper provides a comparison of methods used to measure house price bubbles. We use an asset pricing approach to identify bubble periods retrospectively and then compare those results with results produced by six other methods. We also apply the various methods recursively to a...
Article
Executive Summary. Real estate constitutes a good laboratory to investigate the similarity of public and private asset returns and risks. We find evidence of a one-to-one long-term relation between public and private real estate performance. Also, the return volatilities do not differ significantly between the public and private markets regardless...
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Full-text available
We use sector level REIT and transaction-based direct real estate data for the period 1994-2010 to provide a clearer understanding of the dynamic relations between public and private real estate returns. We add leverage to private returns to make the private data more comparable with the REIT data. We also include economic fundamentals in the analy...
Article
We study the impact of housing conditions on the educational outcomes of young persons in Switzerland. We focus on children aged 15–19, who are potentially enrolled in or graduates of high school or vocational training programs, and young adults aged 20–24, who are potentially students in or graduates of university or other tertiary institutions. H...
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This paper contributes to the debate about capitalization rate determinants by comparing the driving factors of appraisal-based cap rates with those of transaction-based cap rates. By using a rich database of real estate transactions in Switzerland for the period of 1985¡V2010, we identify several property-specific variables that have not been used...
Article
Utilising a dynamic and forward-looking present value model, our analysis investigates whether bubbles exist in the New Zealand and U.K. housing markets by constructing an implied fundamental (real) price series based on what house prices ‘should be’ given expectations of household real disposable income and comparing these prices with actual price...
Article
We conduct an empirical investigation of the pricing and economic sources of commonality in liquidity in the U.S. REIT market. Taking advantage of the specific characteristics of REITs, we analyze three types of commonality in liquidity: within-asset commonality, cross-asset commonality (with the stock market), and commonality with the underlying p...
Article
We present a comprehensive model of household tenure choice that guides our review of the literature on the impacts of tax and subsidy policies and focuses our critiques of various methodologies. We discuss the impacts on the likelihood of homeownership of house price capitalization and individuals' choices of household structure, loan-to-value rat...
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We test relative illiquidity, exemplified through a temporary lock-up, as a partial explanation for the gap between theoretical and empirical weights for real estate in a multi-asset portfolio. Since asset correlations are known to increase in bear markets, which reduce their diversification benefits, the ex-ante knowledge of a lock-up in an asset...
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We show that a proper assessment of the linkages between real estate markets and the economy requires state of the art modelling techniques, which treat economic variables endogenously and allow for a number of long-run relationships. We therefore use a long-run structural modelling approach, which incorporates equilibrium relationships that are pr...
Article
The recent crisis has demonstrated the close linkages between various asset classes within a country as well as the association between assets internationally. The aim of this research is to provide for a better understanding of some of these linkages by conducting an empirical investigation of the channels underlying the risk of contagion between...
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We present a comprehensive model of household tenure choice that allows for the taxation of imputed rental income and capital gains, deductions of mortgage interest and property taxes, subsidies to owners and renters, and borrowing constraints. This model is used to guide our review of the literature that analyzes the impact of country tax and subs...
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the application of robust techniques to the estimation of hedonic house price indexes. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use simulation analysis to compare an index estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) with several indexes estimated using robust techniques. The analysis uses sal...
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The aim of this paper is to review the international evidence on the impacts of mortgage interest deductions (MID) on homeownership rates. To understand the relationship between the deductions and ownership rates, we develop a model of housing tenure choice. In that model, the probability of becoming a homeowner is a function of the relative cost o...
Article
We test relative illiquidity, exemplified through a temporary lock-up, as a partial explanation for the gap between theoretical and empirical weights for real estate in a multi-asset portfolio. Since asset correlations are known to increase in bear markets, reducing their diversification benefits, the ex ante knowledge of a lock-up in an asset clas...
Article
This paper provides a contribution to the discussion on appraised values vs. transaction prices by comparing the driving factors of appraisal-based capitalization rates with those of transaction-based capitalization rates. Using a rich database of real estate transactions in Switzerland for the period 1985–2010, we identify several property-specifi...
Article
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to compare responses of house prices in three important markets when faced with permanent and temporary shocks to income. It additionally decomposes each historical house price series into its permanent, temporary and deterministic components. Design/methodology/approach: Using quarterly data over 1973-2008, tw...
Article
The aim of this study is to examine whether securitized real estate returns reflect direct real estate returns or general stock market returns using international data for the U.S., U.K., and Australia. In contrast to previous research, which has generally relied on overall real estate market indices and neglected the potential long-term dynamics,...
Article
The aim of this paper is to review the international evidence on the impacts of mortgage interest deductions on homeownership rates. The probability of becoming a homeowner is a function of the relative cost of owning and renting, borrowing constraints, permanent household income, and a set of taste variables. The relative cost of owning and rentin...
Article
The aim of this study is to examine whether securitized real estate returns reflect direct real estate returns or general stock market returns using international data for the U.S., U.K., and Australia. In contrast to previous research, which has generally relied on overall real estate market indices and neglected the potential long-term dynamics,...
Article
The aim of this study is to examine whether securitized real estate returns reflect direct real estate returns or general stock market returns using international data for the U.S., U.K., and Australia. In contrast to previous research, which has generally relied on overall real estate market indices and neglected the potential long-term dynamics,...
Article
Using single-family sales data for Louisville, Kentucky, we show the benefits of applying robust methods to down-weight problematic transactions in a repeat sales context. Robust estimators reduce the influence of outliers in repeat sales price changes that are due to data entry errors, quality changes, or non-market transactions. In addition to co...
Article
This paper analyzes the relationships between local and global securitized real estate markets, but also between securitized real estate and common stock markets. First, the volatility transmissions across markets are examined using an asymmetric t-BEKK (Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner) specification of their covariance matrix. Second, correlations from th...
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Full-text available
This study presents evidence of cointegration between securitized (NAREIT) and direct (NCREIF) real estate total return indices. Since the two real estate indices are cointegrated with one another but not with the stock market, REITs and direct real estate are likely to have similar long-term diversification benefits in a stock portfolio. Only dire...
Article
This paper analyzes the relationships between local and global securitized real estate markets, but also between securitized real estate and common stock markets. First, the volatility transmissions across markets are examined using an asymmetric t-BEKK (Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner) specification of their covariance matrix. Second, correlations from th...
Article
Using quarterly data over 1973:4-2008:2, two-variable systems of house prices and income are specified for three major house-owning economies: New Zealand (N.Z.), the U.K. and the U.S. After considering differences in price−income relationships over sub-periods, the analysis compares responses of house prices when faced with permanent and temporary...
Article
A house is a bundle of land and improvements, with the weights of the two components varying both over time and across locations. We capture the land intensity or “leverage” of a property by measuring the ratio of land to total value. This is accomplished using transactions data for single-family homes in Switzerland over the period 1978 to 2008. W...
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Full-text available
This paper compares alternative methods for taking spatial dependence into account in house price prediction. We select hedonic methods that have been reported in the literature to perform relatively well in terms of ex-sample prediction accuracy. Because differences in performance may be due to differences in data, we compare the methods using a s...
Article
In contrast to many other countries, Switzerland generally has not seen soaring house prices in the 2000s and house prices have only recently started to diminish slightly. Also, Swiss authorities do not engage in trying to increase the homeownership rate much above its current level. This paper presents the main aspects of housing policy and financ...
Article
We examine the optimal allocation of assets in the portfolio of a Colombian homeowner conditional on various levels of the house value to net wealth ratio. The high rate of home ownership and low rates of investment in financial assets indicate that households allocate most of their wealth to housing. Our results suggest that actual allocations are...
Article
In contrast to many other countries, Switzerland generally has not seen soaring house prices in the 2000s and house prices have only recently started to diminish slightly. Also, Swiss authorities do not engage in trying to increase the homeownership rate much above its current level. In this paper, we present the main aspects of housing policy and...
Article
Using data for the 1978-2008 period, this study presents evidence for cointegration between securitized (NAREIT) and direct (NCREIF) total return indices. Cointegration between the indices indicates that REITs and direct real estate are substitutable in the portfolio of a long-horizon buy-and-hold investor. Since the real estate indices are not fou...
Article
Although the average change in house prices is related to changes in fundamentals or perhaps market-wide bubbles, not all houses in a market appreciate at the same rate. The primary focus of our study is to investigate the reasons for these variations in price changes among houses within a market. We draw on three theories for guidance, one related...
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This paper uses fractional cointegration analysis to examine whether long-run relations exist between securitized real estate returns and three sets of variables frequently used in the literature as the factors driving securitized real estate returns. That is, we examine whether such relationships are characterized by long memory (long-range depend...
Article
This paper uses fractional cointegration analysis to examine whether long-run relations exist between securitized real estate returns and three sets of variables frequently used in the literature as the factors driving securitized real estate returns. That is, we examine whether such relationships are characterized by long memory (long-range depend...
Article
Securitized real estate returns have traditionally been forecasted using economic variables. However, no consensus exists regarding the variables to use. Financial and real estate factors have recently emerged as an alternative set of variables useful in forecasting securitized real estate returns. This paper examines whether the predictive ability...