Martin Hoesli

• Professor at University of Geneva

Purpose This paper provides a critical history of residential hedonic price modeling, highlighting key issues and advances. It is based on the keynote address presented by the first author at the European Real Estate Society Annual Conference in Sopot (Gdańsk), Poland, in June 2024. Design/methodology/approach The core of the paper is a high-level...

Purpose This paper analyses the determinants of key inputs for the explicit discounted cash flow (DCF) or the implicit capitalisation models, namely the discount rates and the capitalisation rates. We also study the factors affecting the implied growth rate of the net operating income (NOI). Design/methodology/approach We make use of a rich databa...

This paper investigates the usefulness of adding a discrete choice model to the hedonic model via a finite mixture approach. Our approach leads to different hedonic models for different housing market segments based on household information. As such, the proposed method goes beyond measuring the average price of housing attributes. As a case study,...

In September and October 2020, the Real Estate Finance & Investment Symposium, sponsored and organized by the University of Cambridge, the University of Florida, the University of Geneva, and the National University of Singapore, was held online, given the COVID-19 pandemic. Ten papers on various research topics were presented in five two-hour sess...

Purpose The article aims to analyze the behavior of commercial real estate prices in Europe, with a focus on the post-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic period. The authors use national and city-level data for the various commercial real estate sectors in ten countries, as well as listed real estate data, to assess any differences across...

This paper examines the inflation-hedging capability of listed real estate (LRE) companies in the US from 1975 to 2023, and in three other economies—the UK, Japan, and Australia—from 1990 to 2023. By using a Markov switching vector error correction model (MS-VECM), we identify that the short-term hedging ability moves towards being negative or zero...

Purpose Using data spanning 145 years for Sweden, the authors investigate the benefits of holding multi-family properties for investors who aim to hedge wage growth. Design/methodology/approach The authors assess the risk-adjusted excess return that results from adding multi-family properties to a mixed-asset portfolio that aims to track wage grow...

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a framework for the assessment of the fundamental value of house prices in the largest Ukrainian cities, as well as to identify the thresholds, the breach of which would signal a bubble. Design/methodology/approach House price bubbles are detected using two approaches: ratios and regression analysis....

Purpose Opportunity real estate funds are an important style of real estate investing for institutional investors seeking nonlisted real estate exposure. Importantly, institutional investors have sought exposure to the China real estate market, often via opportunity real estate funds. This has been by a pure China opportunity real estate fund (100%...

This paper investigates the inflation hedging capability of listed real estate (LRE) companies from 1990 to 2021 in four economies: the US, the UK, Australia, and Japan. By using a Markov switching vector error correction model (MS-VECM), we identify that the short-term hedging ability moves towards being negative or zero during crisis periods. In...

Accurate estimates of land values on a property-by-property basis are an important requirement for the effective implementation of land-based property taxes. We compare hedonic, residual, and matching techniques for mass appraisal of residential land values, using data from Maricopa County, Arizona. The first method involves a hedonic valuation mod...

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, non-core investments are gaining traction amongst institutional investors due to the shifting preference towards investment vehicles that position higher on the risk–return curve. Non-listed value-add real estate funds in Japan are one such vehicle. This research develops a comprehensive bespoke benchmark...

In some applications of supervised machine learning, it is desirable to trade model complexity with greater interpretability for some covariates while letting other covariates remain a “black box”. An important example is hedonic property valuation modeling, where machine learning techniques typically improve predictive accuracy, but are too opaque...

Using simulation analysis and property-level data for the US, we compare performance metrics for portfolios containing varying proportions of gateway and non-gateway markets. Risk-adjusted performance is found to be similar across types of markets. Gateway markets have higher appreciation and total returns, while non-gateway markets exhibit higher...

Purpose The article analyzes the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on commercial real estate prices, with a particular focus on European markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors start by highlighting caveats to bear in mind when referring to direct real estate indices. The authors then analyze the behavior of comm...

We explore long-term patterns of the house price-income relationship across the 70 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. In line with a standard spatial equilibrium model, our empirical findings indicate that house price-income ratios are typically not stable even over the long run. In contrast, panel regression models that relate house prices to aggreg...

Purpose The study aims to analyze the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on house prices. Design/methodology/approach The authors start by discussing the possibility that house price indexes may not fully incorporate the effects of the pandemic as of yet. Against the background of the pandemic, the authors then analyze economic and behavioral effect...

Purpose Research impact has taken on increased importance at both a micro- and macro-level and is a key factor today in shaping the careers of real estate researchers. This has seen a range of research impact metrics become global benchmarks when assessing research impact at the individual academic level and journal level. Whilst recognising the li...

This study investigates a question relevant to many investors: do the broad Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) return characteristics reflect those of the broad direct real estate markets. The paper makes several contributions to the literature in addition to using more recent data: (1) we use data for six countries (Australia, France, Germany, Ne...

Big data applications are attracting increasing interest among urban researchers. One unexplored question is whether the inclusion of big data accessibility indices improves the accuracy of hedonic price models used for residential property valuation. This paper compares a big data index with an index derived from a regional travel demand model dev...

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze papers that have been published in the Journal of European Real Estate Research since its inception in 2008. Design/methodology/approach The author analyzes papers published from 2008 to 2019 in the Journal of European Real Estate Research by authors’ country of affiliation, by country of study and b...

This study investigates how three regulatory reforms undertaken in the aftermath of the global financial crisis have affected returns of real estate companies. The three reforms are aimed at regulating different segments of the market – Basel III targets banks, and could restrict the availability of bank debt to the sector; the Alternative Investme...

This research starts from the observation that common desmoothing models are likely to generate some extreme returns that will distort risk measurement and hence can lead to investment decisions that are suboptimal relative to those that would be made if a transaction‐based index were available. Thus, we propose to improve the desmoothing models by...

Purpose The purpose of this paper to provide a discussion of the empirical evidence and contributing factors of the synchronization of house prices globally. Design/methodology/approach The author reviewed the main studies on house price synchronization and conducted an empirical analysis using OECD house price indices. A discussion of the contrib...

Purpose: The article analyzes the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on house prices. Design/Methodology/Approach: We start by discussing the possibility that house price indexes may not fully incorporate the effects of the pandemic as of yet. Against the background of the pandemic, we then analyze economic and behavioral effects affecting house pri...

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the accuracy and volatility of different methods for estimating and updating hedonic valuation models. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply six estimation methods (linear least squares, robust regression, mixed-effects regression, random forests, gradient boosting and neural networks)...

Using data for 70 U.S. metropolitan areas, this study explores spatial heterogeneity in house price dynamics. We use recent advances in panel econometrics that allow for spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and non-stationary but cointegrated data. We test for spatial differences and analyze the relationship between the price elastici...

We conduct an empirical investigation of the exposure of U.S. REIT returns to commonality in liquidity. Taking advantage of the specific characteristics of REITs, we study three types of commonality in liquidity: within-asset commonality, cross-asset commonality (with the stock market), and commonality with the underlying property market. We find e...

This paper discusses the main ways of gaining exposure to real estate, with theirassociated advantages and drawbacks. We also present figures on the market size ofthe various types of exposure. We consider direct investments, listed investments,open-ended real estate funds and private equity real estate investments. Our discussion should help inves...

We show how a method that has been applied to commercial real estate markets can be used to produce high-frequency house price indexes for a city and for submarkets within a city. Our application of this method involves estimating a set of annual robust repeat sales regressions staggered by start date and then undertaking an annual-to-monthly (ATM)...

Real estate constitutes a good laboratory to investigate the similarity of public and private asset returns and risks. We find evidence of a one-to-one long-term relation between public and private real estate performance. Also, the return volatilities do not differ significantly between the public and private markets regardless of investment horiz...

Purpose Against the background of initiatives, which have taken place to foster real estate research in Europe, this article seeks to analyse important dimensions of that research. Design/methodology/approach The article investigates the evolution from 2000 to 2015 in the proportion of papers published by authors with a European affiliation in t...

This research contributes to a better assessment of risk factors impacting non-listed real estate fund returns. Both macroeconomic and fund-specific factors are considered, additionally taking into account the phase of the real estate cycle. Using a rich database of fund-level data for Europe, we apply panel regression techniques with random effect...

Using data for six metropolitan housing markets in three countries, this article provides a comparison of methods used to measure house price bubbles. We use an asset pricing approach to identify bubble periods retrospectively and then compare those results with results produced by six other methods. We also apply the various methods recursively to...

Using data for six metropolitan housing markets in three countries, this article provides a comparison of methods used to measure house price bubbles. We use an asset pricing approach to identify bubble periods retrospectively and then compare those results with results produced by six other methods. We also apply the various methods recursively to...

We show how a method that has been applied to commercial real estate markets can be used to produce high frequency house price indexes for a city and for submarkets within a city. Our application of this method involves estimating a set of annual robust repeat sales regressions staggered by start date and then undertaking an annual-to-monthly (ATM)...

Using data for six metropolitan housing markets in three countries, this paper provides a comparison of methods used to measure house price bubbles. We use an asset pricing approach to identify bubble periods retrospectively and then compare those results with results produced by six other methods. We also apply the various methods recursively to a...

Executive Summary. Real estate constitutes a good laboratory to investigate the similarity of public and private asset returns and risks. We find evidence of a one-to-one long-term relation between public and private real estate performance. Also, the return volatilities do not differ significantly between the public and private markets regardless...

We use sector level REIT and transaction-based direct real estate data for the period 1994-2010 to provide a clearer understanding of the dynamic relations between public and private real estate returns. We add leverage to private returns to make the private data more comparable with the REIT data. We also include economic fundamentals in the analy...

We study the impact of housing conditions on the educational outcomes of young persons in Switzerland. We focus on children aged 15–19, who are potentially enrolled in or graduates of high school or vocational training programs, and young adults aged 20–24, who are potentially students in or graduates of university or other tertiary institutions. H...

This paper contributes to the debate about capitalization rate determinants by comparing the driving factors of appraisal-based cap rates with those of transaction-based cap rates. By using a rich database of real estate transactions in Switzerland for the period of 1985¡V2010, we identify several property-specific variables that have not been used...

Utilising a dynamic and forward-looking present value model, our analysis investigates whether bubbles exist in the New Zealand and U.K. housing markets by constructing an implied fundamental (real) price series based on what house prices ‘should be’ given expectations of household real disposable income and comparing these prices with actual price...

We conduct an empirical investigation of the pricing and economic sources of commonality in liquidity in the U.S. REIT market. Taking advantage of the specific characteristics of REITs, we analyze three types of commonality in liquidity: within-asset commonality, cross-asset commonality (with the stock market), and commonality with the underlying p...

We present a comprehensive model of household tenure choice that guides our review of the literature on the impacts of tax and subsidy policies and focuses our critiques of various methodologies. We discuss the impacts on the likelihood of homeownership of house price capitalization and individuals' choices of household structure, loan-to-value rat...

We test relative illiquidity, exemplified through a temporary lock-up, as a partial explanation for the gap between theoretical and empirical weights for real estate in a multi-asset portfolio. Since asset correlations are known to increase in bear markets, which reduce their diversification benefits, the ex-ante knowledge of a lock-up in an asset...

We show that a proper assessment of the linkages between real estate markets and the economy requires state of the art modelling techniques, which treat economic variables endogenously and allow for a number of long-run relationships. We therefore use a long-run structural modelling approach, which incorporates equilibrium relationships that are pr...

The recent crisis has demonstrated the close linkages between various asset classes within a country as well as the association between assets internationally. The aim of this research is to provide for a better understanding of some of these linkages by conducting an empirical investigation of the channels underlying the risk of contagion between...

We present a comprehensive model of household tenure choice that allows for the taxation of imputed rental income and capital gains, deductions of mortgage interest and property taxes, subsidies to owners and renters, and borrowing constraints. This model is used to guide our review of the literature that analyzes the impact of country tax and subs...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the application of robust techniques to the estimation of hedonic house price indexes. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use simulation analysis to compare an index estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) with several indexes estimated using robust techniques. The analysis uses sal...

The aim of this paper is to review the international evidence on the impacts of mortgage interest deductions (MID) on homeownership rates. To understand the relationship between the deductions and ownership rates, we develop a model of housing tenure choice. In that model, the probability of becoming a homeowner is a function of the relative cost o...

We test relative illiquidity, exemplified through a temporary lock-up, as a partial explanation for the gap between theoretical and empirical weights for real estate in a multi-asset portfolio. Since asset correlations are known to increase in bear markets, reducing their diversification benefits, the ex ante knowledge of a lock-up in an asset clas...

This paper provides a contribution to the discussion on appraised values vs. transaction prices by comparing the driving factors of appraisal-based capitalization rates with those of transaction-based capitalization rates. Using a rich database of real estate transactions in Switzerland for the period 1985–2010, we identify several property-specifi...

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare responses of house prices in three important markets when faced with permanent and temporary shocks to income. It additionally decomposes each historical house price series into its permanent, temporary and deterministic components. Design/methodology/approach Using quarterly data over 1973‐2008, two...