Martin Baumgärtner

Technische Hochschule Mittelhessen | THM · Wirtschaft (THM Business School)

Dictionary approaches are at the forefront of current techniques for quantifying central bank communication. This paper proposes embeddings-a language model trained using machine learning techniques-to locate words and documents in a multidimensional vector space. To accomplish this, we utilize a text corpus that is unparalleled in size and diversi...

This paper shows that a different communication style of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects stock prices differently. A break in the ECB's communication from 2016 onwards makes it necessary to adjust the identification of monetary policy surprises in the euro area. By modifying the high-frequency identification of monetary policy shocks in the...

Dictionary approaches are at the forefront of current techniques for quantifying central bank communication. This paper proposes embeddings-a language model trained using machine learning techniques-to locate words and documents in a multidimensional vector space. To accomplish this, we gather a text corpus that is unparalleled in size and diversit...

We distinguish the announcement effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures on macroeconomic variables using a high-frequency data set that measures the impact of the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions. For the period 2002 to 2019, we show that conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures differ co...

This paper studies the effect of uncertainty on monetary policy shocks for the euro area. The analysis shows that various forms of forward guidance under high uncertainty produce results similar to those attributed to information shocks in the literature. This effect can be seen in high-frequency variables and VAR models with external instruments....

In this paper we distinguish the responses of conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures on macroeconomic variables, using a high frequency data set which measures the impact of the ECB's monetary policy decisions. For the period 2002:01 to 2019:06 we show that unconventional and conventional monetary policy measures differ considerab...

This paper investigates the predictive properties of import and export prices of commodities on the exchange rates. A period from 1993 to 2016 is considered. We find that forecasts of the exchange rate adding commodity export and import prices are superior to those neglecting these variables. This holds irrespective of whether the countries are net...

This paper investigates the predictive properties of import and export prices of commodities on the exchange rates. A period from 1993 to 2016 is considered. We nd that forecasts of the exchange rate adding commodity export and import prices are superior to those neglecting these variables. This holds irrespective of whether the countries are net e...