Martijn van de Pol

Martijn van de Pol
James Cook University · College of Science and Engineering

Doctor of Philosophy
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97
Publications
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4,192
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Publications

Publications (97)
Article
Full-text available
Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species’ life histories. Here, we use long‐term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal s...
Article
Full-text available
The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species’ range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial Eur...
Article
Full-text available
Significance Climate change is impacting wild populations, but its relative importance compared to other causes of change is still unclear. Many studies assume that changes in traits primarily reflect effects of climate change, but this assumption is rarely tested. We show that in European birds global warming was likely the single most important c...
Article
Full-text available
Aim In many species, density‐dependent effects on reproduction are an important driver of population dynamics. However, it is rarely considered that the direction of density dependence is expected to vary over space and time depending on anti‐predator behaviour and predator community. Aggregation may allow for effective group mobbing against avian...
Article
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1. An increasing number of empirical studies aim to quantify individual variation in demographic parameters because these patterns are key for evolutionary and ecological processes. Advanced approaches to estimate individual heterogeneity are now using a multivariate normal distribution with correlated individual random effects to account for the l...
Article
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Understanding which factors cause populations to decline begins with identifying which parts of the life cycle, and which vital rates, have changed over time. However, in a world where humans are altering the environment both rapidly and in different ways, the demographic causes of decline may also vary over time. Identifying temporal variation in...
Article
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To understand the consequences of anthropogenic and environmental changes for wildlife populations, it is important to study how individuals differ in their sensitivity to environmental change, and whether this depends on individual characteristics. An individual’s reproductive performance may provide an integrative, unidimensional proxy of an indi...
Article
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Disturbance may impact individual birds and ultimately bird populations. If animals avoid disturbed sites this may prevent them from being disturbed directly but may also negatively impact their movement patterns and energy budgets. Avoidance is, however, challenging to study, as it requires following individuals over large spatial scales in order...
Article
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1. Body condition is an important concept in behaviour, evolution and conservation, commonly used as a proxy of an individual’s performance, for example in the assessment of environmental impacts. Although body condition potentially encompasses a wide range of health state dimensions (nutritional, immune or hormonal status), in practice most studie...
Article
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Biological processes exhibit complex temporal dependencies due to the sequential nature of allocation decisions in organisms’ life‐cycles, feedback loops, and two‐way causality. Consequently, longitudinal data often contain cross‐lags: the predictor variable depends on the response variable of the previous time‐step. Although statisticians have war...
Article
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Shorebird populations, especially those feeding on shellfish, have strongly declined in recent decades and identifying the drivers of these declines is important for conservation. Changing food stocks are thought to be a key driver of these declines and may also explain why trends have not been uniform across Europe's largest estuary. We therefore...
Article
Assignment of parentage with molecular markers is most difficult when the true parents have close relatives in the adult population. Here we present an efficient solution to that problem by extending simple exclusion approaches to parentage analysis with single nucleotide polymorphic markers (SNPs). We augmented the previously published homozygote...
Article
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Individual variation in disturbance vulnerability (i.e. the likelihood that disturbance negatively affects an individual's fitness) can affect how disturbance impacts animal populations, as even at low disturbance levels some individuals could be severely affected and die. Individual variation in vulnerability can arise due to different responses t...
Code
Can be used for paternity and maternity assignment and outperforms conventional methods where closely related individuals occur in the pool of possible parents. The method compares the genotypes of offspring with any combination of potentials parents and scores the number of mismatches of these individuals at bi-allelic genetic markers (e.g. Single...
Article
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Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the tempor...
Preprint
Full-text available
Many wild populations are showing changes in phenotypic traits. However, the common assumption that such changes are driven by climate change relies on three conditions: that local climate is changing over time, that trait(s) are sensitive to climate variability, and that other causal agents are not also changing. We used long-term datasets on 60 b...
Preprint
Full-text available
The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species' range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two European songbi...
Article
Full-text available
Assessing impacts of disturbance over large areas and long time periods is crucial for nature management, but also challenging since impacts depend on both wildlife responses to disturbance and on the spatiotemporal distribution of disturbance sources. Combined tracking of animals and disturbance sources enables quantification of wildlife responses...
Article
Climate change has strong effects on traits such as phenology and physiology. Studies typically assume that climate‐induced trait changes will have consequences for population dynamics, but explicit tests are rare. Body condition reflects energy storage and may directly affect how much can be invested in reproduction and survival. However, the caus...
Article
Full-text available
Feeding specialization is a common cause of individual variation. Fitness payoffs of specialization vary with environmental conditions, but the underlying behavioral mechanisms are poorly understood. Such mechanistic knowledge, however, is crucial to reliably predict responses of heterogeneous populations to environmental change. We quantified spat...
Article
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Anthropogenic disturbance can negatively affect an animal’s energy budget by evoking movement responses. Existing research focuses mainly on immediate displacement as a disturbance effect, since this can be easily observed in the field. However, effects on movement over longer timescales are poorly examined and it is largely unknown if and to what...
Article
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Knowing the consequences of disturbance for multiple species and all disturbance sources is crucial to mitigate disturbance impacts in densely populated areas. However, studies that observe the complete disturbance landscape to estimate cumulative costs of disturbance are scarce. Therefore, we quantified responses, frequencies and energetic costs o...
Article
Group living can be beneficial when individuals reproduce or survive better in the presence of others, but, simultaneously, there might be costs due to competition for resources. Positive and negative effects on various fitness components might thus counteract each other, so integration is essential to determine their overall effect. Here, we inves...
Article
1. Changes in climate are shifting the timing of life cycle events in the natural world. Compared to northern temperate areas, these effects are relatively poorly understood in tropical and southern regions, where there is limited information on how timing of breeding and food availability are affected by climatic factors, and where patterns of bre...
Article
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Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications...
Chapter
To understand the effects of climate change and predict its future impacts, biologists relate variation in biological variables to spatial or temporal variation in weather variables. It is often unclear a priori which weather variables are important, over which period they act, and in what way they affect biological responses. Recently, multiple me...
Article
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Climate change has caused a clear and univocal trend towards advancement in spring phenology. Changes in autumn phenology are much more diverse, with advancement, delays, and ‘no change' all occurring frequently. For migratory birds, patterns in autumn migration phenology trends have been identified based on ecological and life‐history traits. Expl...
Article
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Kubelka et al . (Reports, 9 November 2018, p. 680) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.
Article
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1.Changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events (ECEs) can have profound impacts on individual fitness by degrading habitat quality. Organisms may respond to such changes through habitat selection, favouring those areas less affected by ECEs; however, documenting habitat selection in response to ECEs is difficult in the wild due to the rarity...
Preprint
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Kubelka et al. (Science, 9 November 2018, p. 680-683) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their clai...
Article
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Background Ring wear and loss may have important consequences for mark-recapture studies that aim to estimate survival trends. Our study quantifies the rates of wear and loss from a long-running colour-ringing project of the Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) in the Netherlands. Methods Our analysis included 8909 colour-ringed oysterca...
Article
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Migratory connectivity describes linkages between breeding and non-breeding areas. An ongoing challenge is tracking avian species between breeding and non-breeding areas and hence estimating migratory connectivity and seasonal survival. Collaborative color-ringing projects between researchers and citizen scientists provide opportunities for trackin...
Article
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Extra‐pair paternity (EPP) has been suggested to improve the genetic quality of offspring, but evidence has been equivocal. Benefits of EPP may be only available to specific individuals or under certain conditions. Red‐winged fairy‐wrens have extremely high levels of EPP, suggesting fitness benefits might be large and available to most individuals....
Article
1. Much is known about the brief adult phase of fireflies. However, fireflies spend a relatively long developmental period under the soil surface. Climatic and soil conditions may directly affect the eggs, larvae, and pupae, and also affect them indirectly through predators, competitors, and prey items. Climatic conditions during the early life sta...
Conference Paper
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Identifying the main drivers of population decline is challenging in migratory species, as they can be affected at different stages of the annual cycle that are geographically separated. Furthermore, the impact of environmental drivers at overwintering sites may not be directly apparent due to carry- over effects (COEs) to the reproductive season (...
Preprint
Full-text available
Predicting population collapse in the face of unprecedented anthropogenic pressures is a key challenge in conservation. Abundance-based early warning signals have been suggested as a possible solution to this problem; however, they are known to be susceptible to the spatial and temporal subsampling ubiquitous to abundance estimates of wild populati...
Article
Full-text available
It is generally assumed that populations of a species will have similar responses to climate change, and thereby that a single value of sensitivity will reflect species-specific responses. However, this assumption is rarely systematically tested. High intraspecific variation will have consequences for identifying species- or population-level traits...
Data
Supporting information for results. (DOCX)
Data
Supporting information for methods and materials. (DOC)
Article
Full-text available
Extra-pair paternity (EPP), where offspring are sired by a male other than the social male, varies enormously both within and among species. Trying to explain this variation has proved difficult because the majority of the interspecific variation is phylogenetically-based. Ideally, variation in EPP should be investigated in closely related species,...
Article
Full-text available
Phenotypic plasticity is a crucial mechanism for responding to changes in climatic means, yet we know little about its role in responding to extreme climatic events (ECEs). ECEs may lack the reliable cues necessary for phenotypic plasticity to evolve; however, this has not been empirically tested. We investigated whether behavioural plasticity in n...
Article
More extreme climatic events (ECEs) are among the most prominent consequences of climate change. Despite a long-standing recognition of the importance of ECEs by paleo-ecologists and macro-evolutionary biologists, ECEs have only recently received a strong interest in the wider ecological and evolutionary community. However, as with many rapidly exp...
Article
Full-text available
When studying the impacts of climate change, there is a tendency to select climate data from a small set of arbitrary time periods or climate windows (e.g., spring temperature). However, these arbitrary windows may not encompass the strongest periods of climatic sensitivity and may lead to erroneous biological interpretations. Therefore, there is a...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter examines the impacts of climate change on the natural coastal ecosystems in the North Sea region. These comprise sandy shores and dunes and salt marshes in estuaries and along the coast. The chapter starts by describing the characteristic geomorphological features of these systems and the importance of sediment transport. Consideration...
Preprint
Full-text available
When studying the impacts of climate change, there is a tendency to select climate data from a small set of arbitrary time periods or climate windows (e.g., spring temperature). However, these arbitrary windows may not encompass the strongest periods of climatic sensitivity and may lead to erroneous biological interpretations. Therefore, there is a...
Article
Despite its importance for the evolution of cooperative breeding, it has proven difficult to determine whether helpers improve their recipients’ fitness. Helpers affect fitness in multiple ways, both positive and negative, but their effects can also be concealed through reduced maternal investment. Furthermore, determining the direction of causatio...
Article
1.Ecologists and many evolutionary biologists relate variation in physiological, behavioral, life-history, demographic, population and community traits to variation in weather, a key environmental driver. However, identifying which weather variables (e.g. rain, temperature, El Niño index), over which time period (e.g. recent weather, spring or year...
Article
Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically...
Article
Full-text available
Fitness can be profoundly influenced by the age at first reproduction (AFR), but to date the AFR-fitness relationship only has been investigated intraspecifically. Here we investigated the relationship between AFR and average lifetime reproductive success (LRS) across 34 bird species. We assessed differences in the deviation of the Optimal AFR (i.e...
Chapter
Full-text available
IntroductionFairy-wrens have always played a pivotal role in the study of cooperative breeding. So far as we are aware, the first recognition that more than two birds could combine to rear a single brood of young comes from John Gould’s (1841) depiction of the superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus in his treatise on the birds of Australia, many decades...
Article
1.Extreme climatic events (ECEs) are predicted to become more frequent as the climate changes. A rapidly increasing number of studies - though few on animals - suggest that the biological consequences of ECEs can be severe. 2.However, ecological research on the impacts of extreme climatic events (ECEs) has been limited by a lack of cohesiveness and...
Article
Environmental variation can induce life-history changes that can last over a large part of the lifetime of an organism. If multiple demographic traits are affected, expected changes in climate may influence environmental covariances among traits in a complex manner. Thus, examining the consequences of environmental fluctuations requires that indivi...
Article
Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in order to design effective strategies to conserve bio...
Article
Full-text available
To understand the social organization of species, we propose that it is necessary to unify three partial descriptions of social systems based on competition for limiting resources: adaptive distribution theory, life-history theory, and mating systems theory. Here, we illustrate what insights can be gained by applying such a framework to the study o...
Article
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Density of potential mates has often been proposed to explain the enormous variation in extrapair paternity. However, density is often confounded by other ecological factors that might affect extrapair paternity in their own way. Furthermore, extrapair mating shows strong phylogenetic inertia, making both meaningful intra- and interspecific compari...