Martha Liliana Carreño Tibaduiza

CIMNE International Center for Numerical Methods in Engineering | CIMNE

Barcelona is in an area of low- to medium-seismicity and its earthquake vulnerability and risk has been assessed in different studies over the last 20 years. Most of these works have developed vulnerability models for the representative building classes of the city, trying to capture their main characteristics, and have been mostly represented thro...

This background paper has been made in the framework of the project "Development of a Global Infrastructure Risk Model and Resilience Index (GIRI) for the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), Biennial Report on Disaster and Climate Resilient Infrastructure, 2023", supported by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and de...

The objective of the holistic risk assessment is to evaluate risk from a comprehensive perspective, integrating physical risk, or potential physical damage, linked to the happening of hazard events and socio-economic and environmental factors, non-hazard-dependent. This approach seeks to capture how these latter have an incidence on physical risk,...

Risk identification is the first step on a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy, and nowadays, when new open-source tools to conduct those analyses are becoming widely available, the interest and need to increase their transparency has increased. Catastrophic risk due to natural hazards should be considered in a prospective way quantifyi...

Disaster risk is not only associated with the occurrence of intense hazard events but also with the vulnerability conditions that favour or facilitate disasters when such events occur. Vulnerability is closely linked to social processes and governance weaknesses in disaster-prone areas and is usually related to a set of factors of fragility, suscep...

Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation are integrated, interinstitutional, multisectoral, and interdisciplinary processes. They generally give rise to public policies with the same goals. It is not very appropriate to refer to slope instability or landslide adaptation in a general sense without alluding to disaster risk management....

Disaster risk is not only associated with the occurrence of intense hazard events but also with the vulnerability conditions that facilitate disasters when such events occur. Vulnerability is closely linked to social processes and governance weaknesses in disaster-prone areas, and is usually related to a set of fragilities, susceptibilities, and is...

http://rioccadapt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/11_Cap_11_CambioClimatico.pdf La gestión del riesgo de desastres y la adaptación al cambio climático son procesos de carácter integral, interinstitucional, multisectorial e interdisciplinar. En general, dan lugar a políticas públicas que tienen los mismos objetivos. No es muy apropiado hablar de ada...

La gestión del riesgo de desastres y la adaptación al cambio climático son procesos de carácter integral, interinstitucional, multisectorial e interdisciplinar. En general, dan lugar a políticas públicas que tienen los mismos objetivos. No es muy apropiado hablar de adaptación frente a la inestabilidad de laderas —o también frente a los deslizamien...

Risk management due to natural hazards is a multidimensional and complex problem since it requires the knowledge and experience of several disciplines. The effectiveness of risk management can be analyzed, inviting to the action through weakness identification of the urban area. This article proposes a methodology based on the morphological analysi...

Among the activities developed under the framework of the Global Earthquake Model, the development of a global consequences database was included. This was defined with the objective of serving as public repository of damages and losses, occurred on different types of elements because of a selected list of earthquakes with epicentres at varying loc...

El Atlas tiene como objetivo dar a conocer diversos estudios y avances en relación con la evaluación de las diferentes amenazas de origen natural y tecnológico, desarrollados por entidades públicas y privadas en el país; así como también dar a conocer resultados de la evaluación probabilista del riesgo para diferentes amenazas, basados en métricas...

Using the probabilistic and holistic approach of the CAPRA platform to assess seismic risk at the urban level, the decision-making process to reduce different dimensions of vulnerability and increase local resilience from an integral and inter-institutional perspective is described. The risk assessment methodology has been developed and applied to...

Disaster risk is not only associated with the occurrence of intense hazard events but also with the vulnerability conditions that facilitate disasters when such events occur. Vulnerability is closely linked to social processes and governance weaknesses in disaster-prone areas, and is usually related to a set of fragilities, susceptibilities, and is...

Disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change considering economic, social, and environment issues, are the objectives of an integrated, interdisciplinary and multi-sectoral disaster risk management. Sustainability and transformation of development are only possible if there is a suitable strategy of vulnerability reduction and resilienc...

Disaster risk depends on both the physical vulnerability and a wide range of social, economic, and environmental aspects of a society. For a better risk understanding, a holistic or integrated perspective was considered when risk was assessed for the city of Manizales, Colombia. This assessment accounts not only for the expected physical damage and...

The urban areas may be exposed to different natural hazards; in order to jointly evaluate the potential risk, this article proposes a methodology for the qualitative assessment of the multi-hazard physical risk by using a fuzzy inference system called MuHRA by its abbreviations MUlti-Hazard Physical risk assessment. This methodology is based on the...

A loss and damage assessment was performed for the buildings of Lorca, Spain, considering an earthquake hazard scenario with similar characteristics to those of a real event which occurred on May 11th 2011, in terms of epicentre, depth and magnitude while also considering the local soil response. This low-to moderate earthquake caused severe damage...

One of the projects of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) was to develop a global earthquake consequences database (GEMECD) which served both to be an open and public repository of damages and losses on different types of elements at global level and also as a benchmark for the development of vulnerability models that could capture specific characte...

Usually the seismic risk evaluation involves only the estimation of the expected physical damage, casualties or economic losses. This article corresponds to a holistic approach for seismic risk assessment which involves the evaluation of the social fragility and the lack of resilience. The complementary evaluation of social context aspects such as...

Medellín is the second largest city of Colombia with more than 2 million inhabitants according to the latest census and with more than 240,000 public and private buildings. It is located on an intermediate seismic hazard area according to the seismic zonation of Colombia although no destructive earthquakes have occurred having as a consequence low...

In the last years, from a disasters perspective, risk has been dimensioned to allow a better management. However, this conceptual-ization turns out to be limited or constrained, by the generalized use of a fragmented risk scheme, which always consider first, the approach and applicability of each discipline involved. To be congruent with risk defin...

A methodology to estimate, in a probabilistic way, the annual cost to society of premature deaths because of earthquakes is proposed in this paper. The methodology makes use of results obtained by means of prospective and probabilistic seismic risk assessments where, expected deaths caused by the collapse of buildings are obtained. Those results, c...

This Guidebook describes the principles, tools and practice of three urban disaster risk and resilience indicator systems based on our collective experience in implementing them in various urban settings in the last decade with local authorities. The objective of the Guidebook and the case studies presented here is to describe the methodology and p...

En este artículo se ha realizado una evaluación probabilista e integral del riesgo sísmico para las edificaciones de Lorca, la ciudad más afectada tras el sismo de mayo de 2011 en la Región de Murcia, España. La amenaza sísmica se ha representado mediante un conjunto de escenarios estocásticos que permite considerar el efecto de eventos pequeños, m...

This work attempts to explain how probabilistic seismic risk assessments can be performed at different resolution levels, using, strictly speaking, the same methodology (or arithmetic) and, then, how to obtain results in terms of the same metrics; but, also, highlighting what the differences in terms of inputs for the analysis and the reasons for t...

This chapter is based on a paper published in Natural Hazards dealing with the MOVE framework; see in detail Birkmann et al., 2013.

The risk due to natural hazards is usually assessed in physical terms by estimating the losses they may cause. Nevertheless, the risk assessment can involve other aspects like the lack of economic and social development, management deficiencies and inability of the society to respond and recover in case of a hazard event. In this chapter, the case...

Taken into account that the natural hazard risk is a contingent liability and, therefore, a sovereign risk for national governments, it is important to assess properly the potential losses to design a suitable risk reduction, retention and transfer strategy. In this article, a disaster risk assessment methodology is proposed based on two approaches...

Hazard related Risk is a strange concept since its represents something that has not happened yet, something which is blur and randomness related. Along its estimation, social vulnerability aspects come to arise. Such aspects are even more difficult to define in part because there is still missing a robust way to quantify them and, therefore, to es...

A loss assessment was performed for the buildings of Lorca, Spain, considering an earthquake hazard scenario with similar characteristics to those of a real event which occurred on May 11 th 2011, in terms of epicentre, depth and magnitude. This low-to moderate earthquake caused severe damage and disruption in the region and especially on the city....

A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment of Medellín, Colombia, was conducted using a building by building resolution level database with more than 240,000 dwellings. An updated seismic hazard assessment was used in the analysis and a set of stochastic seismic scenarios was generated. Because the city has a seismic microzonation study, the dyn...

The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance...

A holistic evaluation of the seismic risk is conducted for the city of Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago. The presented methodology evaluates the seismic risk from a holistic perspective, that is, it takes into account the expected physical damage and also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience, which favour the second o...

Countries prone to seismic hazard need to assess the expected risk as a permanent activity in their financial plan; otherwise, they will experience a lack in the information required for the application of disaster risk reduction policies. In this article, a risk assessment methodology is proposed that uses, on the one hand, empiric estimations of...

A loss assessment was performed for the buildings of Lorca, Spain, considering an earthquake hazard scenario with similar characteristics to those of a real event which occurred on May 11 th 2011, in terms of epicentre, depth and magnitude. This low-to moderate earthquake caused severe damage and disruption in the region and especially on the city....

A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment of Medellín, Colombia, was conducted using a building by building resolution level database with more than 240,000 dwellings. An updated seismic hazard assessment was used in the analysis and a set of stochastic seismic scenarios was generated. Because the city has a seismic microzonation study, the dyn...

A fully probabilistic risk assessment of Santo Domingo–National District, Dominican Republic, was conducted using a building by building resolution level. A national seismic hazard assessment was developed in order to generate a set of stochastic scenarios for the probabilistic seismic risk analysis using the CAPRA platform. Different building clas...

Disaster databases allow analyzing losses produced by previous events and assessing the risk from natural hazard in a similar way the insurance industry does for vehicles, health, etc., if the conditions and trends are maintained. Among the existing disaster databases, we selected DesInventar, whose vast majority of records corresponds to “small” e...

A fully probabilistic risk assessment has been conducted for the building portfolio (both public and private) in Lorca, Spain. The city was heavily affected by the earthquake occurred in May 2011 and several damage surveys were conducted after that event. Exposed assets information is of high quality in Lorca and a building by building resolution l...

La teoría de conjuntos difusos ofrece un puente entre el procesamiento simbólico y el numérico que permite el uso de conceptos cualitativos útiles en el proceso de toma de decisiones relacionadas con la gestión del riesgo sísmico y, en general, con la gestión del riesgo de desastres. Su utilización en la evaluación del riesgo sísmico es necesaria e...

Este artículo presenta un índice, el DRMi (Disaster Risk Managment Index), que tiene como objetivo la medición del desempeño de la gestión del riesgo. Hace una medición cuantitativa de la gestión con base en niveles cualitativos preestablecidos y es evaluado para las ciudades de Bogotá y Manizales en Colombia y para Metro-Manila en Filipinas. Peer...

The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance...

Countries need to assess the expected risk due to natural hazards as a permanent activity in their financial plan; otherwise, they will experience a lack in the information required by the application of disaster risk reduction policies. In this article, a risk assessment methodology is proposed that uses, in one hand, empiric estimations of loss,...

The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazard...

The Disaster Risk Management Indicators Program for Latin America and the Caribbean meets this need. The system of indicators proposed by IDEA for the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) permits a systematic and quantitative benchmarking of each country during different periods between 1980 and 2010, as well as comparisons across countries. It al...

The seismic risk evaluation usually works with a fragmented concept of risk, which depends on the scientific discipline in charge of the assessment. To achieve an effective performance of the risk management, it is necessary to define risk as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences due to a hazardous phenomenon in a period of...

Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental conse- quences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From th...

A manual on concept, methodology, and tools in the framework of the FP7 MOVE Project (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe) European Commission