Marten Scheffer

Few disagree that we should pass on the Earth in good shape to future generations, and many scientists want their work to contribute to that goal. Recent work has shown that hopelessness stands in the way of people taking an active attitude. At the same time, it is becoming clear what can be done about that: providing compelling visions of attracti...

Tackling climate change and biodiversity loss will require government policies to reverse environmental destruction and align economic activity with sustainability goals. Subsidy-based policies feature prominently in current national and international policy discussions about ways to address these challenges. Given this, now is a critical moment to...

The possibility to anticipate critical transitions through detecting loss of resilience has attracted attention in many fields. Resilience indicators rely on the mathematical concept of critical slowing down, which means that a system recovers more slowly from external perturbations when it gets closer to tipping point. This decrease in recovery ra...

Complex systems ranging from societies to ecological communities and power grids may be viewed as networks of connected elements. Such systems can go through critical transitions driven by an avalanche of contagious change. Here we ask, where in a complex network such a systemic shift is most likely to start. Intuitively, a central node seems the m...

The potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) poses substantial climate risks 1 , yet some current economic models estimate it would have a net economic benefit through counteracting the impacts of global warming that led to its collapse in the first place 2–4 . This is based on eventual net effects on country-lev...

Importance Psychiatric disorders may come and go with symptoms changing over a lifetime. This suggests the need for a paradigm shift in diagnosis and treatment. Here we present a fresh look inspired by dynamical systems theory. This theory is used widely to explain tipping points, cycles, and chaos in complex systems ranging from the climate to eco...

Importance Dynamical systems theory is widely used to explain tipping points, cycles, and chaos in complex systems ranging from the climate to ecosystems. It has been suggested that the same theory may be used to explain the nature and dynamics of psychiatric disorders, which may come and go with symptoms changing over a lifetime. Here we review ev...

Potential analysis is used in many ecological studies to infer whether or not an ecosystem can have alternative stable states, to estimate the tipping points and, to assess the resilience of ecosystems. The main reason behind its frequent use is that such a frequency-based analysis is a minimalistic modelling strategy and therefore, is well-suited...

Tipping points and alternative attractors have become an important focus of research and public discussions about the future of climate, ecosystems and societies. However, empirical evidence for the existence of alternative attractors remains scarce. For example, bimodal frequency distributions of state variables may suggest bistability, but can al...

Using data from a wide range of natural communities including the human microbiome, plants, fish, mushrooms, rodents, beetles, and trees, we show that universally just a few percent of the species account for most of the biomass. This is in line with the classical observation that the vast bulk of biodiversity is very rare. Attempts to find traits...

How states and great powers rise and fall is an intriguing enigma of human history. Are there any patterns? Do polities become more vulnerable over time as they age? We analyze longevity in hundreds of premodern states using survival analysis to help provide initial insights into these questions. This approach is commonly used to study the risk of...

What propelled the human ‘revolutions' that started the Anthropocene? and what could speed humanity out of trouble? Here, we focus on the role of reinforcing feedback cycles, often comprised of diverse, unrelated elements (e.g. fire, grass, humans), in propelling abrupt and/or irreversible, revolutionary changes. We suggest that differential ‘sprea...

The possibility to anticipate critical transitions through detecting loss of resilience has attracted attention in a variety of fields. Resilience indicators rely on the mathematical concept of critical slowing down, which means that a system recovers increasingly slowly from external perturbations when approaching a tipping point. This decrease in...

To reduce the consequences of infectious disease outbreaks, the timely implementation of public health measures is crucial. Currently used early-warning systems are highly context-dependent and require a long phase of model building. A proposed solution to anticipate the onset or termination of an outbreak is the use of so-called resilience indicat...

Theory suggests that increasingly long, negative feedback loops of many interacting species may destabilize food webs as complexity increases. Less attention has, however, been paid to the specific ways in which these delayed negative feedbacks’ may affect the response of complex ecosystems to global environmental change. Here, we describe five fun...

Climate change is expected to shift the boreal biome northward through expansion at the northern and contraction at the southern boundary respectively. However, biome-scale evidence of such a shift is rare. Here, we used remotely-sensed tree cover data to quantify temporal changes across the North American boreal biome from 2000 to 2019. We reveal...

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, wate...

The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’—defined as the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature. We show that climate chan...

Superimposed on long-term late Paleocene-early Eocene warming (~59 to 52 million years ago), Earth's climate experienced a series of abrupt perturbations, characterized by massive carbon input into the ocean-atmosphere system and global warming. Here, we examine the three most punctuated events of this period, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum a...

The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modelling techniques is quite difficult. This has led to the development of an alternative suite of methods that seek to identify signat...

Financial advisers recommend a diverse portfolio to respond to market fluctuations across sectors. Similarly, nature has evolved a diverse portfolio of species to maintain ecosystem function amid environmental fluctuations. In urban planning, public health, transport and communications, food production, and other domains, however, this feature ofte...

To reduce the consequences of infectious disease outbreaks, the timely implementation of public health measures is crucial. Currently used early-warning systems are highly context-dependent and require a long phase of model building. A proposed solution to anticipate the onset or termination of an outbreak is the use of so-called resilience indicat...

There is growing awareness of pollinator declines worldwide. Conservation efforts have mainly focused on finding the direct causes, while paying less attention to building a systemic understanding of the fragility of these communities of pollinators. To fill this gap, we need operational measures of network resilience that integrate two different a...

Unraveling the network of interactions in ecological communities is a daunting task. Common methods to infer interspecific interactions from cross-sectional data are based on co-occurrence measures. For instance, interactions in the human microbiome are often inferred from correlations between the abundances of bacterial phylogenetic groups across...

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspec...

Beliefs can be highly resilient in the sense that they are not easily abandoned in the face of counterevidence. This has the advantage of guiding consistent behavior and judgments but may also have destructive consequences for individuals, nature, and society. For instance, pathological beliefs can sustain psychiatric disorders, the belief that rhi...

NON FORMATED PUBLISHED VERSION Feedbacks between climate change and eutrophication: revisiting the allied attack concept and how to strike back Despite its well-established negative impacts on society and biodiversity, eutrophication continues to be one of the most pervasive anthropogenic influence along the freshwater to marine continuum. The i...

The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms 1,2 but this raises ethical issues ³ . Here we express them in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’ ⁴ – defined as the historically highly-conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature (MAT). We show t...

The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and potentially irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is quite difficult. This has led to the development of an alternative suite of methods that seek to identify s...

Transformation toward a sustainable future requires an earth stewardship approach to shift society from its current goal of increasing material wealth to a vision of sustaining built, natural, human, and social capital—equitably distributed across society, within and among nations. Widespread concern about earth’s current trajectory and support for...

The increasing frequency of extreme events, exogenous and endogenous, poses challenges for our societies. The current pandemic is a case in point; but "once-in-a-century" weather events are also becoming more common, leading to erosion, wildfire and even volcanic events that change ecosystems and disturbance regimes, threaten the sustainability of...

Aging research is unparalleled in the breadth of disciplines it encompasses, from evolutionary studies examining the forces that shape aging to molecular studies uncovering the underlying mechanisms of age-related functional decline. Despite a common focus to advance our understanding of aging, these disciplines have proceeded along distinct paths...

Despite its well-established negative impacts on society and biodiversity, eutrophication continues to be one of the most pervasive anthropogenic influence along the freshwater to marine continuum. The interaction between eutrophication and climate change, particularly climate warming, was explicitly focused upon a decade ago in the paper by Moss e...

There are concerns that climate change attention is waning as competing global threats intensify. To investigate this possibility, we analyzed all link shares and reshares on Meta’s Facebook platform (e.g., shares and reshares of news articles) in the United States from August 2019 to December 2020 (containing billions of aggregated and de-identifi...

We characterized > 150 countries’ resilience to COVID-19 as the nationwide decay rate of daily cases or deaths from peak levels. Resilience to COVID-19 varies by a factor of ~ 40 between countries for cases/capita and ~ 25 for deaths/capita. Trust within society is positively correlated with country-level resilience to COVID-19, as is the adaptive...

Significance The post-truth era has taken many by surprise. Here, we use massive language analysis to demonstrate that the rise of fact-free argumentation may perhaps be understood as part of a deeper change. After the year 1850, the use of sentiment-laden words in Google Books declined systematically, while the use of words associated with fact-ba...

Sustainability requires a combination of meaningful co-production of locally relevant solutions, synthesis of insights gained across regions, and increased cooperation between science, policy and practice. The Programme for Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) has been coordinating Place-Based Social-Ecological Sustainability Research (PBSESR) acros...

Body size is usually considered a good indicator of trophic position in fish communities. Indeed, the proverbial wisdom that “Big Fish Eat Little Fish” is consistent with observations from marine systems where systematic removal of the largest individuals has occurred, with cascading effect in the ecosystems. Trophic cascades are also well document...

Significance Early warning signals (EWS) of tipping points are vital to anticipate system collapse or other sudden shifts. However, existing generic early warning indicators designed to work across all systems do not provide information on the state that lies beyond the tipping point. Our results show how deep learning algorithms (artificial intell...

Resilience was compared for alternate states of phytoplankton pigment concentration in two multiyear whole‐lake experiments designed to shift the manipulated ecosystem between alternate states. Mean exit time, the average time between threshold crossings, was calculated from automated measurements every 5 min during summer stratification. Alternate...

Significance Can entire societies become more or less depressed over time? Here, we look for the historical traces of cognitive distortions, thinking patterns that are strongly associated with internalizing disorders such as depression and anxiety, in millions of books published over the course of the last two centuries in English, Spanish, and Ger...

Estimating resilience in complex systems Resilience is an important concept in the study of critical transitions and tipping points in complex systems and is defined by the size of the disturbance that a system can endure before tipping into an alternative stable state. Nevertheless, resilience has proved resistant to measurement. Arani et al. show...

Significance Reliable data on economic inequality are largely limited to North America and Western Europe. As a result, we know the least about areas where inequality presents the most serious developmental policy challenge. We demonstrate that spatial variation in night-light emitted per person can reflect the distribution of income. This allows u...

Significance Collapse of civilizations remains one of the most enigmatic phenomena in human history. In this paper we provide quantitative evidence that loss of resilience systematically preceded collapses. We take advantage of unique time series documenting both construction activity and climate conditions for pre-Columbian societies of the southw...

Why have some countries suppressed waves of the COVID-19 pandemic much more effectively than others? We find that the decay rate of daily cases or deaths from peak levels varies by a factor of ~40 between countries. This measure of country-level resilience to COVID-19 is positively correlated with trust within society, and with the adaptive increas...

A rise in fragility as a system approaches a tipping point may be sometimes estimated using dynamical indicators of resilience (DIORs) that measure the characteristic slowing down of recovery rates before a tipping point. A change in DIORs could be interpreted as an early warning signal for an upcoming critical transition. However, in order to be a...

Many natural systems exhibit regime shifts where slowly changing environmental conditions suddenly shift the system to a new and sometimes very different state. As the tipping point is approached, the dynamics of complex and varied systems all simplify down to a small number of possible 'normal forms' that determine how the new regime will look. In...

Inequality of wealth and its associated power has varied greatly over human history. It is often thought that the main levelers of inequality were natural disasters such as epidemics or earthquakes, and social turmoil such as wars and revolutions. Here we critically review evidence of the effects of such events on inequality from medieval times til...

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwine...

Since Darwin, individuals and more recently genes, have been the focus of evolutionary thinking. The idea that selection operates on nonreproducing, higher-level systems including ecosystems or societies, has met with scepticism. But research emphasising that natural selection can be based solely on differential persistence invites reconsideration...

The latest global assessment of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) warns that biodiversity loss can make ecosystems more vulnerable to the effects of climate change and other stressors. Economic growth has been identified as one of the key drivers of these losses, however, the impact pathway...

Global environmental change challenges humanity because of its broad scale, long-lasting, and potentially irreversible consequences. Key to an effective response is to use an appropriate scientific lens to peer through the mist of uncertainty that threatens timely and appropriate decisions surrounding these complex issues. Identifying such corridor...

There are many calls to use the COVID 19 crisis as an opportunity for transforming to a future trajectory that is more equitable and environmentally sustainable. What is lacking is a cohesive framework for bringing these calls together. We propose that such transitions could be informed by lessons from three decades of scholarship on abrupt and sur...

Predicting which marine systems are close to abrupt transitions into oxygen-deficient conditions ("anoxia") is notoriously hard but important-as rising temperatures and coastal eutrophication drive many marine systems toward such tipping points. Rapid oxic-to-anoxic transitions occurred regularly within the eastern Mediterranean Sea on (multi)cente...

Abstract Human sleep/wake cycles follow a stable circadian rhythm associated with hormonal, emotional, and cognitive changes. Changes of this cycle are implicated in many mental health concerns. In fact, the bidirectional relation between major depressive disorder and sleep has been well-documented. Despite a clear link between sleep disturbances a...

The corona pandemic has exposed the interconnected, tightly coupled and vulnerable globalised world. This White Paper sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such crises for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation; where people and nature are dynamically intertwine...

Similarity of competitors has been proposed to facilitate coexistence of species because it slows down competitive exclusion, thus making it easier for equalizing mechanisms to maintain diverse communities. On the other hand, previous studies suggest that chaotic ecosystems can have a higher biodiversity. Here, we link these two previously unrelate...

The most discernible and devastating impacts of climate change are caused by events with temporary extreme conditions (“extreme events”) or abrupt shifts to a new persistent climate state (“tipping points”). The rapidly growing amount of data from models and observations poses the challenge to reliably detect where, when, why and how these events o...

Significance We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints. We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population gr...

Stability landscapes are useful for understanding the properties of dynamical systems. These landscapes can be calculated from the system’s dynamical equations using the physical concept of scalar potential. Unfortunately, it is well known that for most systems with two or more state variables such potentials do not exist. Here we use an analogy wi...

Conditions such as insomnia, cardiac arrhythmia and jet-lag share a common feature: they are all related to the ability of biological systems to synchronize with the day-night cycle. When organisms lose resilience, this ability of synchronizing can become weaker till they eventually become desynchronized in a state of malfunctioning or sickness. It...