About
70
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Introduction
Additional affiliations
August 2018 - present
April 2011 - present
Position
- Professor (Associate)
Description
- Under-graduate courses (international economics, international trade and microeconomics) and Graduate courses (international trade, Brazilian industry and Structural Change)
April 2011 - present
Position
- Professor (Associate)
Description
- International trade and Industrial economics
Publications
Publications (70)
O comércio internacional não é neutro em relação às desigualdades de gênero presentes nas economias. Dadas as diferentes inserções dos indivíduos nas esferas da vida econômica e social, modificações no perfil e no volume de comércio podem afetá-las/os de distintas maneiras, amenizando, reforçando ou perpetuando as desigualdades de gênero. Sendo ass...
Brazil counts among the countries the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. A great deal has been said about the negative role played by President Bolsonaro’s denialism, but relatively few studies have attempted to measure precisely what impact it actually had on the pandemic. Our paper conducts econometric estimates based on observational data at...
Resumo Professor da UFRJ de 1985 a 2019, colunista do Valor Econômico de 2004 a 2019, editor da REC/IE-UFRJ de 2010 a 2019 e pesquisador emérito do CNPq nomeado em 2019, David Kupfer notabilizou-se por sua visão dinâmica da evolução da indústria brasileira e seu olhar crítico e pragmático sobre o papel da indústria na promoção do desenvolvimento ec...
Resumo O artigo descreve a estimação dos custos potenciais, sob a ótica do Ministério da Saúde (MS), da implementação do medicamento cabotegravir injetável de longa duração (CAB LA) no Sistema Único de Saúde, como alternativa para a prevenção à infecção pelo HIV e parte da estratégia nacional de prevenção combinada. Utilizou-se o instrumental analí...
This paper deepens the existing analysis of the Brazil’s integration into Global Value Chains by applying the decomposition methodology of gross exports proposed by Wang, Wei and Zhu (2018)WANG, Z.; WEI, S.; ZHU, K. Quantifying international production sharing at the bilateral and sector levels. USA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2018. (Wor...
Brazil counts among the countries the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. A great deal has been said about the negative role played by President Bolsonaro's denialism, but relatively few studies have attempted to measure precisely what impact it actually had on the pandemic. Our paper conducts econometric estimates based on observational data at...
O Brasil está entre os países mais atingidos pela Covid-19, em um contexto nacional marcado por um posicionamento negacionista do governo federal no combate à pandemia. O presente estudo analisa, juntamente com outros fatores socioeconômicos, sanitários e demográficos, como a orientação política dos municípios está relacionada com a taxa de mortali...
This paper aims at identifying the Covid-19 infection and mortality risk factors in Brazil during the pandemic's first wave. Three groups of variables are considered: socioeconomic and health vulnerabilities, factors related to the virus transmission channels (mobility and density) and the effects of the policy responses. The analysis at the level...
A partir de la década de 1980, en el Brasil y México se adoptaron estrategias
comerciales y productivas divergentes, con importantes efectos en sus respectivas
estructuras productivas y comerciales. En este estudio se investiga la manera en que
los diferentes patrones de especialización comercial de los dos países incidieron en
la complejidad d...
The phenomena of globalization and fragmentation of production drive countries to face a double challenge of catching up: economic upgrading coupled with improvement in living standards. Meanwhile, insertion and upgrading within global value chains (GVCs) deeply affect national economies in multiple ways. In this paper, we explore the research agen...
In this paper we perform an economic exploratory analysis of wages,
productivity and global value chain (GVC) indicators for a selected group of countries representative of the three great “global factories”, in order to analyze the importance of wages for GVC participation in recent years. The main hypotheses of this study are, on the one hand, t...
Early October 2020, Brazil was one of the countries most affected by COVID-19, both in number of proven cases (3rd) and in number of deaths (2nd), while the first wave of the pandemic is not over yet. This paper intends to provide knowledge on the development of the pandemic in Brazil and therefore to feed into the reflection on the policies implem...
Globalisation is the extent and intensity with which a country's production, trade and capital flows are integrated into the world economy. Our focus is on globalisation through international trade. We analyse the main theoretical predictions about the effects of global trade integration on trade patterns between countries of different levels of in...
This article aims at mapping the countries participation in Global Value Chains (CGV) simultaneously to the behavior of trade flows and income for the use of intellectual property, in a pioneering empirical approach in the literature regarding value chains involving technological variables. For this, it were analyzed the countries participation in...
Este documento reporta os primeiros resultados do estudo sobre potenciais impactos macroeconômicos e setoriais da epidemia de Covid-19 na economia brasileira em 2020. A partir do modelo insumo-produto desenvolvido pelo Grupo de Indústria e Competitividade do Instituto de Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (GIC/IE-UFRJ), o estudo tem...
Exports, and which exports, are the key to alleviate the balance-of-payments constraint to growth. This article thus investigates the sources of growth in both total and sectoral Brazilian exports between 1995 and 2014, using a new decomposition methodology suited to identify changes in international competitiveness. The results highlight the limit...
The Covid-19 virus brought to Brazil not only the sanitary and the economic crisis, but also deepened the political conflicts, which in turn makes the adoption of sanitary and economic solutions difficult.
Resumo Este artigo tem como objetivo mapear padrões de atuação dos países nas Cadeias Globais de Valor (CGV) e os respectivos ganhos, identificando-se sob quais circunstâncias tal atuação foi acompanhada de mudança estrutural. Os padrões de atuação referem-se à inserção dos países nas CGV e possíveis evoluções por meio dos diferentes tipos de upgra...
Brazilian exports of manufactured goods have a high geographical specialization,
both concerning trade volume, sectoral composition and product sophistication. Latin America became since the 90s the main market for Brazilian manufacturing exports,
besides having increased the degree of productive articulation. However, during the
2000s, Brazil has...
This paper analyzes the relationship between the degree of participation in global value chains (GVC) and the complexity of productive structures for a set of developed and developing countries between 1995 and 2011. For this, we analyze the participation of these countries in GVCs by means of their import content of exports. In view of the complex...
In this paper we perform an economic exploratory analysis of wages, productivity and GVC insertion for a selected group of countries representative of the three great “global factories” for recent years in order to analyze the twofold relationship between wages and GVC participation. The main hypothesis of this study are, on the one hand, that wage...
This study contributes to the literature on the social impacts of Special Economic Zones by analyzing poverty changes in the Brazilian state of Amazonas, where the Free Trade Zone of Manaus (FTZM) is located. Using census data, statistical micro‐decompositions and counterfactual simulations, we show that labor income was the major driver of poverty...
Cette étude analyse la relation entre la participation dans les chaînes globales de valeur (CGV) et la complexité des structures productives pour un ensemble de pays développés et de pays en développement dans la période 1995-2011. Pour cela, nous analysons la participation de ces pays dans les CGV au moyen du contenu importé des exportations. Comp...
no final de 2004, representou a retomada da política industrial no Brasil, depois de um longo período, durante o qual a agenda de política econômica esteve submeti-da às políticas macroeconômicas de estabilização. Desde então, com o intuito de promover o desenvolvimento da indústria no país, um conjunto amplo de medi-das foi adotado pelo governo br...
Globalisation can be defined as the extent and intensity with which a country's production, trade and capital flows are integrated in the world economy. Our focus is on the globalisation through international trade flows. After analyzing the main theoretical predictions about the effects of global trade integration on trade patterns between countri...
O objetivo do presente estudo é investigar como os diferentes padrões de especialização comercial do Brasil e do México impactaram a complexidade das estruturas produtivas das duas economias entre 1995 e 2011. Busca-se argumentar que, embora os padrões de comércio exterior do Brasil e do México difiram principalmente em termos de suas pautas export...
This paper analyzes the relationship between the degree of participation in global value
chains and its impacts on the complexity of productive structures for a set of countries available in
the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). We first consider the share in the GVC, the complexity
of productive structures, and the links (patterns) of the inter-...
Artigo
Since the 1980s, the auto industry has increasingly fragmented the production across national borders. Latin America has been part of the leading automakers’ global strategy both as a consumer and as a regional producer. In this context, preferential trade agreements have been relevant to reduce costs and to overcome the limitations related...
p>Nas últimas décadas temos observado um aumento significativo dos fluxos comerciais globais, especialmente de partes e componentes, além de um aumento significativo no volume de investimento direto. A literatura econômica – teórica e empírica - tem apontado a relação desses fenômenos com o processo de fragmentação do processo produtivo. Mas, apesa...
The process of fragmentation has led to a global reorganization of production and has conditioned, to a large extent, the insertion of countries into international trade flows. Among the factors explaining this reorganization of productive activities, those relating to transportation costs and trade barriers are of particular importance. In this co...
O objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar em que medida as recentes modificações na especialização comercial brasileira impactaram o emprego ao longo dos anos 2000. A pergunta principal é saber qual foi o papel desempenhado pelas exportações na evolução do emprego durante esse período? A hipótese que norteia o estudo é que, embora as exportações a...
This paper seeks to evaluate to what extent the greater external exposure of the Brazilian economy in the past decade has contributed to the evolution of employment in the country. This investigation has been undertaken in two ways. First, the total employment variation was decomposed in order to identify the contribution of the final demand compon...
The so-called "globalization" process was an important feature of the global economy in the 90's. This process was characterized by several economic and political phenomena that deepened the integration of national economies to global economy. The growth of the world's foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and the advance of regionalism are two of...
O desempenho do comércio exterior brasileiro e das exportações em particular foi bem diferente nas duas últimas décadas. A primeira foi marcada por profundas mudanças institucionais, refletindo a mudança no padrão de desenvolvimento da economia brasileira, mas que, porém, conjugou baixo crescimento do PIB com fraco desempenho das exportações. Já a...
The effects of regional integration on the world foreign direct investment flows The so-called “globalization” process was an important feature of the global economy in the 90’s. This process was characterized by several economic and political phenomena that deepened the integration of national economies to global economy. The growth of the world’s...
A teoria tradicional de comércio reconhece que o comércio internacional traz conseqüências diferenciadas para os diversos grupos sociais. Uma crescente literatura vem chamando a atenção para os efeitos destes fenômenos em termos de gênero, devido às mudanças de preços ou de volume das mercadorias ou do emprego. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar,...
This paper studies the impact of trade liberalization and international trade on household income inequality and poverty using detailed micro-data across Brazilian states, from 1987 to 2005. Results suggest that Brazilian states that were more exposed to tariff cuts experienced smaller reductions in household poverty and inequality. If significance...
This paper aims to analyse who are the people who do unpaid tasks for social reproduction, central to reproduction of life and of societal well-being. These jobs are mostly done by women and, since they do not generate income, have reinforced the underestimate women's activities in society. This paper aims to unveil this issue through the analysis...
O Brasil é um dos dez países mais afetados por medidas antidumping no mundo. A relevância dessas medidas para seu desempenho exportador parece ser não negligenciável, ao menos para determinados setores e/ou empresas. Este trabalho busca fazer uma análise abrangente dos efeitos das medidas antidumping sobre as exportações brasileiras. Por um lado, s...
Resumo
Este artigo investiga os efeitos da política antidumping norte-americana sobre as exportações brasileiras no período 1992-2004. São estimados quatro possíveis efeitos das medidas antidumping aplicadas pelos EUA: destruição, desvio, deflexão e depressão de comércio. Os dois primeiros efeitos referem-se ao desempenho exportador brasileiro pa...
Actualmente Brasil participa en diversas negociaciones comerciales. Uno de los aspectos que se debe considerar en la evaluación de esas negociaciones es su impacto sobre el empleo. En el presente artículo se estiman los efectos sobre el empleo de dos de los principales acuerdos comerciales en los cuales participaría Brasil, partiendo del contenido...
Latin-American countries experienced strong growth in both trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) during the 1990s. The major factors behind this include the recovery of economic growth in the region (mainly because of macroeconomic stabilization) and the multilateral and regional trade liberalization process.
The main purpose of this article is to evaluate the degree of integration of Mercosur both at a regional and a multilateral level. We estimate a gravity equation in order to assess the border effect and the degree of integration among Mercosur countries during the 90's.
The UE and Mercosur are currently negotiating a free trade agreement. The offer made by Mercosur reflects its production and protection structure and is more "generous" to agriculture than to industry. In fact, the main competitive fragilities of Mercosur are concentrated in manufactured goods while European competitive fragilities are concentrated...
Brazil is currently negotiating several free trade agreements, being certainly the FTAA and the Mercosur-EU FTA the most important. The main objective of the present work is to estimate the impact of these agreements on the employment in Brazil, according to the workers' degree of qualification. We calculate then the present labour content of expor...
The European Union and the Mercosur are presently negotiating a Free Trade Area, and that may improve the conditions of access of Latin American exports to the European market. In a matter of fact, the European Union's Commercial Policy is very discriminatory and is not favorable to Mercosur exports. This explains, in addition to the Mercosur expor...
In May 2004, the Mercosur and the European Union made their last offers in their negotiations for trade liberalization aiming to reach a Free Trade Agreement in the near future. In this paper the authors intend to evaluate the impacts of both offers on the Brazilian foreign trade. The estimated results indicate additional exports of 947 million dol...
Cette etude a pour objectif d’evaluer les consequences d’une liberalisation commerciale du commerce agricole et agroalimentaire entre le Mercosur et l’Union europeenne, ainsi que d’identifier les principaux points sur lesquels devront se concentrer les negociations commerciales sectorielles entre les deux blocs. Pour ce faire, une analyse detaillee...
The present article is a review of some recent works on the effects of the FTAA and the EU-Mercosur agreement on the Brazilian economy. We present these works' main results, emphasizing their methodological differences and limitations. Their results seem to be very diverse and very sensible to the chosen methodology.
L'UE et le Mercosur negocient actuellement un accord de libre-echange. En fait, la Politique Commerciale Commune est caracterisee par une "hierarchie des preferences commerciales" dans laquelle la position du Mercosur n'est pas favorable, ce qui explique le faible volume d'echanges bilateraux. Dans cet article, une equation gravitaire desagregee es...
The European Union and the Mercosur are actually negotiating an inter-regional Free Trade Area, even though the conditions of access of Latin American products to European market are relatively restrictive. In a matter of fact, the European Union's Commercial Policy is very discriminatory and is not favorable to Mercosur exports. This explains, in...
The European Commercial Policy is characterized by a hierarchy of trade preferences which determines the access conditions to European Market for extra-EU partners. This paper first analyses the institutional framework of the European Union trade relationships with most of their external partners. Secondly, it examines the resulting structure of Eu...
Trade, FDI and regional integration in the Mercosur
In the 90's, the Mercosur countries experienced a strong growth of trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). To examine the relationship between FDI, trade and regional integration in the Mercosur, we test two gravitational equations on trade and FDI flows between Mercosur and OECD members during...
Résumé Depuis le début de la décennie, les pays du Mercosur ont connu une forte croissance des échanges et des investissements directs étrangers (IDE). Nous examinons les liens entre les IDE, le commerce et l'intégration régionale dans le cadre de la formation du Mercosur, à l'aide d'équations gravitationnelles. Nos estimations prennent en considér...
[fre] Depuis le debut de la decennie, les pays du Mercosur ont connu une forte croissance des echanges et des investissements directs etrangers (IDE). Nous examinons les liens entre les IDE, le commerce et l'integration regionale dans le cadre de la formation du Mercosur, a l'aide d'equations gravitationnelles. Nos estimations prennent en considera...
Effective protection is an important tool for the assessment of import policy and, therefore, of the structure of incentives for domestic production. In this paper, we estimate the levels of effective protection for the Brazilian economy for 2000 and 2005. The calculations for 2000 takes into account the distorting effects of the incidence of cumul...
This article presents a comparative study of income elasticities for Brazilian exports to its main commercial partners. Using quarterly data of several exporting industries between 1986 and 2007 and cointegration analysis, an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) is estimated to provide the income elasticities for each relevant industry and i...
The second round of offers made by the European Union and Mercosur for an inter-regional free trade agreement were delivered in March 2003. This year is a decisive time for the negotiating process, as it will signal whether the project will continue or not. At first glance, both blocs have made advances in their negotiating offers, enlarging the se...
La Red Internacional de Género y Comercio (International Gender and Trade Network), creada en 1999 desarrolla actividades de investigación, incidencia y alfabetización en relación a los impactos género de las políticas comerciales y el comercio internacional en siete regiones (África, Asia, El Caribe, Europa, América Latina, América del Norte y el...
Mémoire de DEA : Economie internationale, économie du développement / Paris 1 ; session de 1995.
