Marshall B Burke

Marshall B Burke
Stanford University | SU · Earth System Science

About

44
Publications
35,078
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10,896
Citations
Citations since 2016
3 Research Items
7216 Citations
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201620172018201920202021202202004006008001,0001,200
201620172018201920202021202202004006008001,0001,200

Publications

Publications (44)
Article
The paper reviews progress in understanding the economics of climate change with an emphasis on identifying promising advances that are both significant and nonmarginal, as well as areas in which there are key gaps in our knowledge. We highlight several important areas in which important policy-relevant research questions remain: improving estimate...
Article
A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate project...
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There have been dramatic advances in understanding the physical science of climate change, facilitated by substantial and reliable research support. The social value of these advances depends on understanding their implications for society, an arena where research support has been more modest and research progress slower. Some advances have been ma...
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Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In c...
Article
Quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on economic outcomes are important for public policy. We show that the vast majority of estimates fail to account for well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, leading to potentially misleading projections. We reexamine seven well-cited studies and show that acco...
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A comment by Buhaug et al. attributes disagreement between our recent analyses and their review articles to biased decisions in our meta-analysis and a difference of opinion regarding statistical approaches. The claim is false. Buhaug et al.’s alteration of our meta-analysis misrepresents findings in the literature, makes statistical errors, miscla...
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We review the emerging literature on climate and conflict. We consider multiple types of human conflict, including both interpersonal conflict, such as assault and murder, and intergroup conflict, including riots and civil war. We discuss key methodological issues in estimating causal relationships and largely focus on natural experiments that expl...
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We examine how variation in local economic conditions has shaped the AIDS epidemic in Africa. Using data from over 200,000 individuals across 19 countries, we match biomarker data on individuals’ serostatus to information on local rainfall shocks, a large source of income variation for rural households. We estimate infection rates in HIV-endemic ru...
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A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the 60 most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We fin...
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Are violent conflict and socio-political stability associated with changes in climatological variables? We examine 50 rigorous quantitative studies on this question and find consistent support for a causal association between climatological changes and various conflict outcomes, at spatial scales ranging from individual buildings to the entire glob...
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A growing body of economics research projects the effects of global climate change on economic outcomes. Climate scientists often criticize these articles because nearly all ignore the well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, and therefore appear likely to have downward biased standard errors and potentially misleadi...
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Poverty is commonly cited as a key driver of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, yet little causal evidence exists linking economic conditions to actual disease outcomes. Using data on more than 200,000 individuals across 19 Sub-Saharan African countries, we present evidence that negative income shocks can lead to substantial increases in HIV prevalence, partic...
Article
Predicting the potential effects of climate change on crop yields requires a model of how crops respond to weather. As predictions from different models often disagree, understanding the sources of this divergence is central to building a more robust picture of climate change's likely impacts. A common approach is to use statistical models trained...
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A recent paper by Burke et al. (henceforth “we”) finds a strong historical relationship between warmer- than-average temperatures and the incidence of civil war in Africa (Burke et al. 2009). These findings have recently been challenged by Buhaug (2010) who finds fault with how we controlled for other potential explanatory variables, how we coded c...
Article
Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. Here we consider three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change by 2030 (impacts resulting in l...
Chapter
The main conclusions from recent global and regional assessments are reviewed, with an emphasis on China, India, Africa, and the United States. Most studies have provided primarily “best-guess” point estimates, often supplemented with a few sensitivity analyses, but without a comprehensive measure of uncertainties. Although some useful lessons have...
Article
The Earth is clearly warming. Mounting evidence from around the globe has removed virtually any serious doubt over this fact, and also over whether the main culprit is human emissions of heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). These emissions have been the product of a march towards better economic living standards, and for much of the wo...
Chapter
Some suggestions for future research on food availability, access, and utilization impacts of climate change are presented. Top priorities include better characterization of uncertainties in climate and crop responses, examining income responses to yield changes, and quantifying links between incomes, health, and food security. Many of these questi...
Article
The global food economy is vast and technologically advanced, but none the less prone to substantial negative outcomes in poor weather years. The economic gains or losses associated with climate change will depend on the pace of climate change, the response of cropping systems-including the vast number of growers, researchers, extension agents and...
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Meeting the food needs of Africa's growing population over the next half-century will require technologies that significantly improve rural livelihoods at minimal environmental cost. These technologies will likely be distinct from those of the Green Revolution, which had relatively little impact in sub-Saharan Africa; consequently, few such interve...
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This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi’s climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO’s well correlated with rainfal...
Chapter
There are roughly 1 billion food insecure people in the world today, each having this status because food is unavailable to them, because it is unaffordable, or because they are too unhealthy to make use of it – or some combination of the three. Assessing the potential effects of climate change on food security requires understanding the underlying...
Chapter
The potential for agricultural systems to adapt to climate change is at once both promising and poorly understood. This chapter reviews possible producer and consumer responses to a changing climate, the ability of these responses to offset otherwise negative impacts on food security, and the role of public and private institutions in investing in...
Book
Roughly a billion people around the world continue to live in state of chronic hunger and food insecurity. Unfortunately, efforts to improve their livelihoods must now unfold in the context of a rapidly changing climate, in which warming temperatures and changing rainfall regimes could threaten the basic productivity of the agricultural systems on...
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Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years lea...
Article
Increased understanding of the substantial threat climate change poses to agriculture has not been met with a similarly improved understanding of how best to respond. Here we examine likely shifts in crop climates in Sub-Saharan Africa under climate change to 2050, and explore the implications for agricultural adaptation, with particular focus on i...
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Rising populations and incomes throughout the world have boosted meat demand by over 75% in the last 20years, intensifying pressures on production systems and the natural resources to which they are linked. As a growing proportion of global meat production is traded, the environmental impacts of production become increasingly separated from where t...
Article
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
Article
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
Article
Humans obtain metabolic energy by eating food. Nitrogen is required to grow food, but natural supplies of N for human purposes have been inadequate since the beginning of the twentieth century. The Haber-Bosch process now provides a virtually inexhaustible supply of nitrogen, limited primarily by the cost of energy. However, most nitrogen used in f...
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Estimates of climate change impacts are often characterized by large uncertainties that reflect ignorance of many physical, biological, and socio-economic processes, and which hamper efforts to anticipate and adapt to climate change. A key to reducing these uncertainties is improved understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors....
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Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Result...
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This paper provides an original account of global land, water, and nitrogen use in support of industrialized livestock production and trade, with emphasis on two of the fastest-growing sectors, pork and poultry. Our analysis focuses on trade in feed and animal products, using a new model that calculates the amount of "virtual" nitrogen, water, and...
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The integration of the agricultural and energy sectors caused by rapid growth in the biofuels market signals a new era in food policy and sustainable development. For the first time in decades, agricultural commodity markets could experience a sustained increase in prices, breaking the long-term price decline that has benefited food consumers world...
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El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under...
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Key Words marine aquaculture, fish meal, ecological impacts, offshore aquaculture ■ Abstract With continued human pressure on marine fisheries and ocean re-sources, aquaculture has become one of the most promising avenues for increasing marine fish production in the future. This review presents recent trends and future prospects for the aquaculture...
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El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events exert significant influence on Southeast Asian rice output and markets. This paper measures ENSO effects on Indonesia's national and regional rice production and on world rice prices, using the August Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) to gauge climate variability. It shows that each degree Ce...

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