Markus Hainy

Johannes Kepler University of Linz | JKU · Institute of Applied Statistics

The paper covers the design and analysis of experiments to discriminate between two Gaussian process models with different covariance kernels, such as those widely used in computer experiments, kriging, sensor location and machine learning. Two frameworks are considered. First, we study sequential constructions, where successive design (observation...

The paper covers the design and analysis of experiments to discriminate between two Gaussian process models, such as those widely used in computer experiments, kriging, sensor location and machine learning. Two frameworks are considered. First, we study sequential constructions, where successive design (observation) points are selected, either as a...

Performing optimal Bayesian design for discriminating between competing models is computationally intensive as it involves estimating posterior model probabilities for thousands of simulated data sets. This issue is compounded further when the likelihood functions for the rival models are computationally expensive. A new approach using supervised c...

Optimal design of experiments for correlated processes is an increasingly relevant and active research topic. Present methods have restricted possibilities to judge their quality. To fill this gap, we complement the virtual noise approach by a convex formulation leading to an equivalence theorem comparable to the uncorrelated case and to an algorit...

Optimal design of experiments for correlated processes is an increasingly relevant and active research topic. Until now only heuristic methods were available without a possibility to judge their quality. In this work we complement the virtual noise approach by a convex formulation and an equivalence theorem comparable to the uncorrelated case. Henc...

Understanding functional response within a predator–prey dynamic is a cornerstone for many quantitative ecological studies. Over the past 60 years, the methodology for modelling functional response has gradually transitioned from the classic mechanistic models to more statistically oriented models. To obtain inferences on these statistical models,...

Understanding functional response within a predator-prey dynamic is essentially the cornerstone for most quantitative ecological studies. Over the past 60 years, the methodology for modelling functional response has gradually transitioned from the classic mechanistic models to more statistically oriented models. To obtain inferences on these statis...

Performing optimal Bayesian design for discriminating between competing models is computationally intensive as it involves estimating posterior model probabilities for thousands of simulated datasets. This issue is compounded further when the likelihood functions for the rival models are computationally expensive. A new approach using supervised cl...

Max-stable processes are a common choice for modelling spatial extreme data as they arise naturally as the infinite-dimensional generalisation of multivariate extreme value theory. Statistical inference for such models is complicated by the intractability of the multivariate density function. Nonparametric and composite likelihood-based approaches...

When considering a Bayesian sequential design framework, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms are a natural approach. However, these algorithms require the likelihood function to be evaluated. Therefore, they cannot be applied in cases where the likelihood is not available or is intractable. To overcome this limitation, we propose likelihood-fre...

In this paper we employ a novel method to find the optimal design for problems where the likelihood is not available analytically, but simulation from the likelihood is feasible. To approximate the expected utility we make use of approximate Bayesian computation methods. We detail the approach for a model on spatial extremes, where the goal is to f...

A general approach to Bayesian learning revisits some classical results, which study which functionals on a prior distribution are expected to increase, in a preposterior sense. The results are applied to information functionals of the Shannon type and to a class of functionals based on expected distance. A close connection is made between the latt...

In this paper we propose a new technique of generating optimal designs by means of simulation. The method combines ideas from approximate Bayesian computation and optimal design of experiments and allows great flexibility in the employed criteria and models. We illustrate the idea by a simple expository example

Simulation-based optimal design techniques are a convenient tool for solving a particular class of optimal design problems. The goal is to find the optimal configuration of factor settings with respect to an expected utility criterion. This criterion depends on the specified probability model for the data and on the assumed prior distribution for t...