Mark Urban

University of Connecticut | UConn · Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology

The rate and extent of global biodiversity change is surpassing our ability to measure, monitor and forecast trends. We propose an interconnected worldwide system of observation networks — a global biodiversity observing system (GBiOS) — to coordinate monitoring worldwide and inform action to reach international biodiversity targets.

Ameliorating the impacts of climate change on communities requires understanding the mechanisms of change and applying them to predict future responses. One way to prioritize efforts is to identify biotic multipliers, which are species that are sensitive to climate change and disproportionately alter communities. We first evaluate the mechanisms un...

The finding that adaptive evolution can often be substantial enough to alter ecological dynamics challenges traditional views of community ecology that ignore evolution. Here, we propose that evolution might commonly alter both local and regional processes of community assembly. We show how adaptation can substantially affect community assembly and...

Research on the evolutionary ecology of urban areas reveals how human-induced evolutionary changes affect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services. In a rapidly urbanizing world imposing many selective pressures, a time-sensitive goal is to identify the emergent issues and research priorities that affect the ecology and evolution of species wi...

In recent decades, anthropogenic and natural disturbances have increased in rate and intensity around the world, leaving few ecosystems unaffected. As a result of the interactions among these multiple disturbances, many biological communities now occur in a degraded state as collections of fragmented ecological pieces. Restoration strategies are tr...

Understanding drivers of metapopulation dynamics remains a critical challenge for ecology and conservation. In particular, the degree of synchrony in metapopulation dynamics determines how resilient a metapopulation is to a widespread disturbance. In this study, we used 21 years of egg mass count data across 64 nonpermanent freshwater ponds in Conn...

A major challenge in climate change biology is to explain why the impacts of climate change vary around the globe. Microclimates could explain some of this variation, but climate change biologists often overlook microclimates because they are difficult to map. Here, we map microclimates in a freshwater rock pool ecosystem and evaluate how accountin...

Time is running out to limit further devastating losses of biodiversity and nature's contributions to humans. Addressing this crisis requires accurate predictions about which species and ecosystems are most at risk to ensure efficient use of limited conservation and management resources. We review existing biodiversity projection models and discove...

Recent studies demonstrate that ecological and evolutionary processes can occur over similar temporal and spatial scales and might thus frequently interact. Although concepts such as the evolving metacommunity, diffuse (co)evolution and community genetics integrate multi‐species dynamics, most experimental studies usually consider how evolution aff...

The Metabolic Theory of Ecology explains ecological variation spanning taxonomic organization, space, and time based on universal physiological relationships. The theory depends on two core parameters: the normalization constant, a mass‐independent measure of metabolic rate expected to be invariant among similar species, and the scaling coefficient...

Conserving biodiversity in an era of rapid climate change requires understanding the mechanisms that influence dispersal, gene flow and, ultimately, species persistence. This information is becoming critical for conserving key species in rapidly warming places such as the Arctic. Arctic freshwater fish not only face warmer conditions, but also the...

Understanding how genetic variation is maintained in a metapopulation is a longstanding problem in evolutionary biology. Historical resurveys of polymorphisms have offered efficient insights about evolutionary mechanisms, but are often conducted on single, large populations, neglecting the more comprehensive view afforded by considering all populat...

A growing body of theory predicts that evolution of an early-arriving species in a new environment can produce a competitive advantage against later arriving species, therefore altering community assembly (i.e. the community monopolization hypothesis). Applications of the community monopolization hypothesis are increasing. However, experimental tes...

A predator's functional response determines predator–prey interactions by describing the relationship between the number of prey available and the number eaten. Its shape and parameters fundamentally govern the dynamic equilibrium of predator–prey interactions and their joint abundances. Yet, estimates of these key parameters generally assume stasi...

Urbanization is changing Earth's ecosystems by altering the interactions and feedbacks between the fundamental ecological and evolutionary processes that maintain life. Humans in cities alter the eco-evolutionary play by simultaneously changing both the actors and the stage on which the eco-evolutionary play takes place. Urbanization modifies land...

Across all taxa, amphibians exhibit some of the strongest phenological shifts in response to climate change. As climates warm, amphibians and other animals are expected to breed earlier in response to temperature cues. However, if species use fixed cues such as daylight, their breeding timing might remain fixed, potentially creating disconnects bet...

Cities are uniquely complex systems regulated by interactions and feedbacks between natural and social processes. Characteristics of human society – including culture, economics, technology, and politics – underlie social patterns and activity, creating a heterogeneous environment that can influence and be influenced by both ecological and evolutio...

Historically, many biologists assumed that evolution and ecology acted independently because evolution occurred over distances too great to influence most ecological patterns. Today, evidence indicates that evolution can operate over a range of spatial scales, including fine spatial scales. Thus, evolutionary divergence across space might frequentl...

Phenotypic plasticity can be an important adaptive response to climate change, particularly for dispersal-limited species. Temperature frequently alters developmental and phenotypic traits including morphology, behavior, and reproductive cycles. We often lack crucial information about if and how thermal conditions during development will interact w...

Applying an invasive framework to native species that are shifting their ranges in response to climate change adopts an adversarial, local and static paradigm that is often at odds with protecting global biodiversity.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

For millions of years, Arctic sea ice has expanded and retracted in a rhythmic dance with the summer sun. Humans evolved in this icy world, and civilization relied on it for climatic, ecological, and political stability. But the world creeps ever closer to a future without ice. Last year, new reports documented how record Arctic warmth is rapidly e...

The use of functional information in the form of species traits plays an important role in explaining biodiversity patterns and responses to environmental changes. Although relationships between species composition, their traits, and the environment have been extensively studied on a case-by-case basis, results are variable, and it remains unclear...

Dispersal of prey from predator-free patches frequently supplies a trophic subsidy to predators by providing more prey than are produced locally. Prey arriving from predator-free patches might also have evolved weaker defenses against predators and thus enhance trophic subsidies by providing easily captured prey. Using local models assuming a linea...

We urgently need to predict species responses to climate change to minimize future biodiversity loss and ensure we do not waste limited resources on ineffective conservation strategies. Currently, most predictions of species responses to climate change ignore the potential for evolution. However, evolution can alter species ecological responses, an...

Our ability to project changes to the climate via anthropogenic forcing has steadily increased over the last five decades. Yet, biologists still lack accurate projections about climate change impacts. Despite recent advances, biologists still often rely on correlative approaches to make projections, ignore important mechanisms, develop models with...

Biodiversity in natural systems can be maintained either because niche differentiation among competitors facilitates stable coexistence or because equal fitness among neutral species allows for their long-term cooccurrence despite a slow drift toward extinction. Whereas the relative importance of these two ecological mechanisms has been well-studie...

The field of eco‐evolutionary dynamics is developing rapidly, with a growing number of well‐designed experiments quantifying the impact of evolution on ecological processes and patterns, ranging from population demography to community composition and ecosystem functioning. The key challenge remains to transfer the insights of these proof‐of‐princip...

Biodiversity in natural systems can be maintained either because niche differentiation among competitors facilitates stable coexistence or because equal fitness among neutral species allows for their long-term co-occurrence despite a slow drift toward extinction. Whereas the relative importance of these two ecological mechanisms has been well-studi...

The global climate is changing rapidly, yet biotic responses remain uncertain. Most studies focus on changes in species ranges or plastic responses like phenology, but adaptive evolution could be equally important. Studying evolutionary responses is challenging given limited historical data and a poor understanding of genetically variable traits un...

Exurban areas are expanding throughout the world, yet their effects on local biodiversity remain poorly understood. Wetlands, in particular, face ongoing and substantial threats from exurban development. We predicted that exurbanization would reduce the diversity of wetland amphibian and invertebrate communities and that more spatially aggregated r...

Rapid adaptation of defenses can alter ecological dynamics following introduction of a new predator. We tested for local adaptation in Wood Frog (Rana sylvatica) populations that face varying selection from an apex predator, the Marbled Salamander (Ambystoma opacum), which is expanding its distribution in the study region. We performed a reciprocal...

Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerabl...

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual t...

Synopsis: As climates change, biologists need to prioritize which species to understand, predict, and protect. One way is to identify key species that are both sensitive to climate change and that disproportionately affect communities and ecosystems. These "biotic multipliers" provide efficient targets for research and conservation. Here, we propo...

Ecological genetics is the study of how ecologically relevant traits evolve in natural populations. Early research in ecological genetics demonstrated that natural selection often is strong enough to generate rapid adaptive changes in nature. Current work has expanded our understanding of the temporal and spatial scales at which natural selection c...

BACKGROUND As global climate change accelerates, one of the most urgent tasks for the coming decades is to develop accurate predictions about biological responses to guide the effective protection of biodiversity. Predictive models in biology provide a means for scientists to project changes to species and ecosystems in response to disturbances suc...

Accurately predicting biological impacts of climate change is necessary to guide policy. However, the resolution of climate data could be affecting the accuracy of climate change impact assessments. Here we review the spatial and temporal resolution of climate data used in impact assessments and demonstrate that these resolutions are often too coar...

Recent studies have supported a link between phylogenetic diversity and various ecological properties including ecosystem function. However, such studies typically assume that phylogenetic branches of equivalent length are more or less interchangeable. Here we suggest that there is a need to consider not only branch lengths but also their placement...

Biologists are often confronted with high levels of unexplained variation when studying the processes that determine genetic and species diversity. Here, we argue that eco-evolutionary interactions might often play an important role during colonization and have longstanding effects on populations and communities. Adaptation following colonization c...

Both ecological and evolutionary mechanisms have been proposed to describe how natural communities become assembled at both regional and biogeographical scales. Yet, these theories have largely been developed in isolation. Here, we unite these separate views and develop an integrated eco-evolutionary framework of community assembly. We use a simula...

Multiple theories predict the evolution of foraging rates in response to environmental variation in predation risk, intraspecific competition, time constraints, and temperature. We tested six hypotheses for the evolution of foraging rate in 24 spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) populations from three latitudinally divergent sites using struct...

Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks....

A long-standing macroecological hypothesis posits that species range limits are primarily determined by abiotic factors (e.g. climate) at poleward boundaries and biotic factors (e.g. competition) at equatorward boundaries. Using correlative environmental niche models we test this hypothesis for 214 amphibian and reptile species endemic to the Unite...

Dispersal has long been recognized as a mechanism that shapes many observed ecological and evolutionary processes. Thus, understanding the factors that promote its evolution remains a major goal in evolutionary ecology. Landscape connectivity may mediate the trade-off between the forces in favour of dispersal propensity (e.g. kin-competition, local...

Spatial variation in disease risk in wild populations can depend both on environmental and genetic factors. Understanding the various contributions of each factor requires experimental manipulation of both the environment and genetic composition of populations under natural field conditions. We first examined natural patterns of oomycete compositio...

Local adaptation has been a major focus of evolutionary ecologists working across diverse systems for decades. However, little of this research has explored variation at microgeographic scales because it has often been assumed that high rates of gene flow will prevent adaptive divergence at fine spatial scales. Here, we establish a quantitative def...

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation are predicted to mitigate some of the negative biotic consequences of climate change. Here, we evaluate evidence for plastic and evolutionary responses to climate variation in amphibians and reptiles via a literature review and meta-analysis. We included studies that either document phenotypic changes th...

Background/Question/Methods Climate change requires that species move or adapt to changing climates. To date, most research has centered on understanding how climate change will shape new ranges by affecting abiotic components of the fundamental niche. Yet, we know that species interactions also can affect species ranges by affecting the realized...

Background/Question/Methods Climate change is altering the environmental conditions that determine the distributions and abundances of species, and no-analog communities are expected to form as a result. Across taxa, significant distribution changes and local extinctions have already been documented. Models predicting the responses of species to...

Species are expected to alter their ranges as climates change. Climate-induced range expansions of predators could threaten evolutionarily naïve prey populations, leading to high mortality at the invasion front. If prey can apply existing defenses against local predators to novel predation threats induced by climate change, mortality threats will b...

Ecological and evolutionary mechanisms are increasingly thought to shape local community dynamics. Here, I evaluate if the local adaptation of a meso-predator to an apex predator alters local food webs. The marbled salamander (Ambystoma opacum) is an apex predator that consumes both the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) and shared zooplankto...

We need accurate predictions about how climate change will alter species distributions and abundances around the world. Most predictions assume simplistic dispersal scenarios and ignore biotic interactions. We argue for incorporating the complexities of dispersal and species interactions. Range expansions depend not just on mean dispersal, but also...

Evolutionary biologists typically predict future evolutionary responses to natural selection by analysing evolution on an adaptive landscape. Much theory assumes symmetric fitness surfaces even though many stabilizing selection gradients deviate from symmetry. Here we revisit Lande's adaptive landscape and introduce novel analytical theory that inc...

Microgeographic adaptation occurs when populations evolve divergent fitness advantages across the spatial scales at which focal organisms regularly disperse. Although an increasing number of studies find evidence for microgeographic adaptation, the underlying causes often remain unknown. Adaptive divergence requires some combination of limited gene...

Background/Question/Methods Climate change is altering the environmental conditions that determine the distributions of species, and no-analog communities are expected to form as a result. Across taxa, significant distribution changes and local extinctions have been documented, providing evidence that climate change is already affecting communiti...

Climate change is predicted to alter global species diversity(1), the distribution of human pathogens' and ecosystem services(3). Forecasting these changes and designing adequate management of future ecosystem services will require predictive models encompassing the most fundamental biotic responses. However, most present models omit important proc...

A focus on species interactions may improve predictions of the effects of climate change on ecosystems.

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The ‘evolving metacommunity’ framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory sugges...

Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal diffe...

Background/Question/Methods: Natural populations consist of phenotypically diverse individuals, due to genetic and/or environmental variation. However, ecological models typically disregard trait variation within populations, focusing instead on the dynamics of populations and species as the unit of interest. Here, we argue that this simplificati...

Background/Question/Methods Climate change forces species to track changing climates. To date, most research has centered on understanding how climate change will shape new ranges by affecting abiotic components of the fundamental niche. Yet, we know that species interactions also can affect species ranges by affecting the realized niche. Climate...

Ecology Letters (2011) 14: 723–732 Given the potential for rapid and microgeographical adaptation, ecologists increasingly are exploring evolutionary explanations for community patterns. Biotic selection can generate local adaptations that alter species interactions. Although some gene flow might be necessary to fuel local adaptation, higher gene f...

Most predictions about species responses to climate change ignore species interactions. Helland and colleagues (2011) test whether this assumption is valid by evaluating whether ice cover affects competition between brown trout [Salmo trutta (L.)] and Arctic charr [Salvelinus alpines (L.)]. They show that increasing ice cover correlates with lower...

Natural populations consist of phenotypically diverse individuals that exhibit variation in their demographic parameters and intra- and inter-specific interactions. Recent experimental work indicates that such variation can have significant ecological effects. However, ecological models typically disregard this variation and focus instead on trait...

Background/Question/Methods: Determining the factors that limit the distribution of species is a central goal of ecology and evolutionary biology. Biologists are being called upon to predict species distributional responses to climate change, biological invasions, habitat fragmentation, and a number of other anthropogenic pressures. Generalizations...

Ecology Letters (2010) 13: 1041–1054 Two major approaches address the need to predict species distributions in response to environmental changes. Correlative models estimate parameters phenomenologically by relating current distributions to environmental conditions. By contrast, mechanistic models incorporate explicit relationships between environm...

Spatial heterogeneity in the selection imposed by different predator species could promote the adaptive diversification of local prey populations. However, high gene flow might swamp local adaptations at limited spatial scales or generalized phenotypic plasticity might evolve in place of local diversification. Spotted salamander larvae Ambystoma ma...

Predicting the impacts of climate change on species is one of the biggest challenges that ecologists face. Predictions routinely focus on the direct effects of climate change on individual species, yet interactions between species can strongly influence how climate change affects organisms at every scale by altering their individual fitness, geogra...

The diversity and composition of biological communities might often depend on colonization history because early colonists can exclude future colonists through a priority effect. These priority effects, which have been observed across a wide variety of ecosystems, often arise because early colonists have sufficient time to use available resources e...

Ecological genetics is the study of how ecologically relevant traits evolve in natural populations. Early research in ecological genetics demonstrated that natural selection often is strong enough to generate rapid adaptive changes in nature. Modern ecological geneticists combine field observations, laboratory experiments and rapidly improving labo...

Background/Question/Methods The composition of a natural community at any point in time is determined by the historical sequence of past colonizations and the outcomes of interactions between colonists and inhabitants. One important community interaction that can affect community assembly is the priority effect. A priority effect occurs when the...

Background/Question/Methods To avert extinction in the face of climate change, species may disperse to track suitable habitat conditions as they shift in space, or evolve to adapt to the novel conditions. These two processes may interact in important ways, for example if the arrival of a species pre-adapted to warmer local conditions fills a nich...

General predictions of community dynamics require that insights derived from local habitats can be scaled up to explain phenomena across geographic scales. Across these larger spatial extents, adaptation can play an increasing role in determining the outcome of species interactions. If local adaptation is common, then our ability to generalize meas...

Research on the interactions between evolutionary and ecological dynamics has largely focused on local spatial scales and on relatively simple ecological communities. However, recent work demonstrates that dispersal can drastically alter the interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics, often in unexpected ways. We argue that a dispersal-...

To predict the spread of invasive species, we need to understand the mechanisms that underlie their range expansion. Assuming random diffusion through homogeneous environments, invasions are expected to progress at a constant rate. However, environmental heterogeneity is expected to alter diffusion rates, especially by slowing invasions as populati...

1. Heterogeneous predation risks can select for predator-specific plastic defences in prey populations. However, diverse predation threats can generate diffuse selection, which, in turn, can lead to the evolution of more generalized reaction norms. Unreliable predator cues also can select for more generalized plasticity in prey. 2. Here, I evaluate...

Theoretical efforts suggest that the relative sizes of predators and their prey can shape community dynamics, the structure of food webs, and the evolution of life histories. However, much of this work has assumed static predator and prey body sizes. The timing of recruitment and the growth patterns of both predator and prey have the potential to m...

Growth is a critical ecological trait because it can determine population demography, evolution, and community interactions. Predation risk frequently induces decreased foraging and slow growth in prey. However, such strategies may not always be favored when prey can outgrow a predator's hunting ability. At the same time, a growing gape-limited pre...

Longstanding theory in behavioral ecology predicts that prey should evolve decreased foraging rates under high predation threat. However, an alternative perspective suggests that growth into a size refuge from gape-limited predation and the future benefits of large size can outweigh the initial survival costs of intense foraging. Here, I evaluate t...

Invasive species threaten biological diversity throughout the world. Understanding the dynamics of their spread is critical to mitigating this threat. In Australia, efforts are underway to control the invasive cane toad (Chaunus [Bufo] marinus). Range models based on their native bioclimatic envelope suggest that the cane toad is nearing the end of...

Road disturbances can influence wildlife health by spreading disease agents and hosts or by generating environmental conditions that sustain these agent and host populations. I evaluated field patterns of trematode infections in snails inhabiting ponds at varying distances from the Dalton Highway, a wilderness road that intersects northern Alaska....