Mark J. Lara

• PhD
• Professor (Assistant) at University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Tundra vegetation productivity and composition are responding rapidly to climatic changes in the Arctic. These changes can, in turn, mitigate or amplify permafrost thaw. In this Review, we synthesize remotely sensed and field-observed vegetation change across the tundra biome, and outline how these shifts could influence permafrost thaw. Permafrost...

Lakes represent as much as ~25% of the total land surface area in lowland permafrost regions. Though decreasing lake area has become a widespread phenomenon in permafrost regions, our ability to forecast future patterns of lake drainage spanning gradients of space and time remain limited. Here, we modeled the drivers of gradual (steady declining la...

Peatlands are prevalent across northern regions, including bogs, fens, marshes, meadows, and select tundra wetlands that all vary in size (e.g., 0.01 s to 10 s km²) and shape (e.g., circular to elongated). However, our best remotely sensed products describing the regional-scale distribution of peatland extents are constrained to 1 km² pixels, often...

Tundra fires can dramatically influence plant species cover and abundance, organic layer depth, and the magnitude of seasonal permafrost thaw. However, knowledge of the impact of wildfire on short and long-term interactions between vegetation and permafrost thaw remains limited. Here, we evaluate the spatial and temporal interactions between wildfi...

Tall deciduous shrubs are critically important to carbon and nutrient cycling in high-latitude ecosystems. As Arctic regions warm, shrubs expand heterogeneously across their ranges, including within unburned terrain experiencing isometric gradients of warming. To constrain the effects of widespread shrub expansion in terrestrial and Earth System Mo...

As the northern high latitude permafrost zone experiences accelerated warming, permafrost has become vulnerable to widespread thaw. Simultaneously, wildfire activity across northern boreal forest and Arctic/subarctic tundra regions impact permafrost stability through the combustion of insulating organic matter, vegetation and post-fire changes in a...

Deep‐learning (DL) models have become increasingly beneficial for the detection of retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) in the permafrost domain. However, comparing accuracy metrics is challenging due to unstandardized labeling guidelines. To address this, we conducted an experiment with 12 international domain experts from a broad range of scientific b...

Retrogressive Thaw Slumps (RTS) and Active Layer Detachment Slides (ALD) are widespread thermal mass-wasting hillslope failures triggered by thawing permafrost. Despite increasing rates of these failures, knowledge about their pan-arctic spatial and temporal distribution remains limited. We present the Database of AI-detected Arctic RTS and ALD foo...

Arctic observations in 2023 provided clear evidence of rapid and pronounced climate and environmental change, shaped by past and ongoing human activities that release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and push the broader Earth system into uncharted territory. This chapter provides a snapshot of 2023 and summarizes decades-long trends observed a...

Deep-learning (DL) models have become increasingly beneficial for the detection of retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) in the permafrost domain. However, comparing accuracy metrics is challenging due to unstandardized labeling guidelines. To address this, we conducted an experiment with 12 international domain experts from a broad range of scientific b...

Earlier snowmelt, warmer temperatures and herbivory are among the factors that influence high-latitude tundra productivity near the town of Utqiaġvik in northern Alaska. However, our understanding of the potential interactions between these factors is limited. MODIS observations provide cover fractions of vegetation, snow, standing water, and soil,...

Rapid warming due to human-caused climate change is reshaping the Arctic, enhanced by physical processes that cause the Arctic to warm more quickly than the global average, collectively called Arctic amplification. Observations over the past 40+ years show a transition to a wetter Arctic, with seasonal shifts and widespread disturbances influencing...

The circumpolar average peak tundra greenness value in 2022 declined from the record high values of the previous two years, but still represented the fourth highest value since 2000. Tundra greenness in 2022 was high in most of the North American Arctic, but unusually low in northeastern Siberia, consistent with persistent summer sea-ice in the adj...

Uncrewed aerial systems (UASs) have emerged as powerful ecological observation platforms capable of filling critical spatial and spectral observation gaps in plant physiological and phenological traits that have been difficult to measure from space-borne sensors. Despite recent technological advances, the high cost of drone-borne sensors limits the...

Climate warming is projected to intensify tundra wildfire, with profound implications for permafrost thaw. A major uncertainty is how increased burning will interact with climate change to exacerbate thermokarst (ground-surface collapse resulting from permafrost thaw). Here we show that thermokarst rates increased by ~60% with warming climate and w...

https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2021/ArtMID/8022/ArticleID/936/Tundra-Greenness

Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers are expected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scaling field-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to a large uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and f...

Fire disturbance has increased in some tundra ecosystems due to anthropogenic climate change, with important ramifications for terrestrial carbon cycling. Assessment of the potential impact of fire-regime change on tundra carbon stocks requires long-term perspectives because tundra fires have been rare historically. Here we integrated the process-b...

The Arctic is one chapter from the State of the Climate in 2020 annual report and is available from https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0086.1. Compiled by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate in 2020 is based on contributions from scientists from around the world. It provides a detailed update on global climate...

Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers are expected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scaling field-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to a large uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and f...

Observations indicate shrubs are expanding across the Arctic tundra, mainly on hillslopes and primarily in response to climate warming. However, the impact topography exerts on hydrology, nutrient dynamics, and plant growth can make untangling the mechanisms behind shrub expansion difficult. We examined the role topography plays in determining shru...

Nearly 25% of all lakes on earth are located at high latitudes. These lakes are formed by a combination of thermokarst, glacial, and geological processes. Evidence suggests that the origin of periglacial lake formation may be an important factor controlling the likelihood of lakes to drain. However, geospatial data regarding the spatial distributio...

Arctic tundra landscapes are composed of a complex mosaic of patterned ground features, varying in soil moisture, vegetation composition, and surface hydrology over small spatial scales (10-100 m). The importance of microtopography and associated geomorphic landforms in influencing ecosystem structure and function is well founded, however, spatial...

The expansion of shrubs across the Arctic tundra may fundamentally modify land‐atmosphere interactions. However, it remains unclear how shrub expansion pattern is linked with key environmental drivers, such as climate change and fire disturbance. Here we used 40+ years of high‐resolution (~1.0 m) aerial and satellite imagery to estimate shrub‐cover...

In northern Alaska nearly 65% of the terrestrial surface is composed of polygonal ground, where geomorphic tundra landforms disproportionately influence carbon and nutrient cycling over fine spatial scales. Process-based biogeochemical models used for local to Pan-Arctic projections of ecological responses to climate change typically operate at coa...

The long-term satellite record (1982-2018) indicates "greening" across most Arctic tundra regions, especially Alaska's North Slope, mainland Canada, and the Russian Far East, but trends are not homogeneous, and some regions instead exhibit no trend or "browning," such as the Canadian Archipelago, southwestern Alaska, and parts of northwestern Siber...

Assessments of climate‐change effects on ecosystem processes and services in high‐latitude regions are hindered by a lack of decision‐support tools capable of forecasting possible future landscapes. We describe a collaborative effort to develop and apply the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and northwestern Canada to explore how climate...

Arctic lakes located in permafrost regions are susceptible to catastrophic drainage. In this study, we reconstructed historical lake drainage events on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska between 1955 and 2017 using USGS topographic maps, historical aerial photography (1955), and Landsat Imagery (ca. 1975, ca. 2000, and annually since 2000)....

Tundra fires are projected to increase with anthropogenic climate change, yet our ability to assess key wildfire metrics such as fire severity remains limited. The Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) is the most commonly applied index for fire severity mapping. However, the computation of NBR depends on short-wave infrared (SWIR) data, which are not common...

The Arctic marine ecosystem and the communities that depend upon it continue to experience unprecedented changes as a result of warming air temperatures, declining sea ice, and warming waters. Arctic Report Card 2019 draws particular attention to the Bering Sea region, where declining winter sea ice exemplifies the potential for sudden and extreme...

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1,2,3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)⁴. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we sy...

Increases in the availability of nitrogen (N) may have consequences for plant growth and nutrient cycling in N-limited tundra plant communities. We investigated the impact alder (Alnus viridis spp. fruticosa), an N-fixing deciduous shrub, has on tundra N cycling at a hillslope located on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. We quantified N fixation using ¹⁵N...

High‐latitude climate change has impacted vegetation productivity, composition, and distribution across tundra ecosystems. Over the past few decades in northern Alaska, emergent macrophytes have increased in cover and density, coincident with increased air and water temperature, active layer depth, and nutrient availability. Unraveling the covaryin...

Arctic tundra landscapes are composed of a complex mosaic of patterned ground features, varying in soil moisture, vegetation composition, and surface hydrology over small spatial scales (10–100 m). The importance of microtopography and associated geomorphic landforms in influencing ecosystem structure and function is well founded, however, spatial...

Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many region...

Ponds and lakes are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. They play an important role in Arctic wetland ecosystems by regulating carbon, water, and energy fluxes and providing freshwater habitats. However, ponds, i.e., waterbodies with surface areas smaller than 1.0×104 m2, have not been inventoried on global and regional scales. The Permafrost R...

Ponds and lakes are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. They play an important role in Arctic wetland ecosystems by regulating carbon, water, and energy fluxes and providing freshwater habitats. However, ponds, i.e. waterbodies with surface areas smaller than 1.0E+04 m2, have not been inventoried at global and regional scales. The Permafrost Re...

Plant-mediated CH4 flux is an important pathway for land-atmosphere CH4 emissions but the magnitude, timing, and environmental controls, spanning scales of space and time, remain poorly understood in arctic tundra wetlands, particularly under the long term effects of climate change. CH4 fluxes were measured in situ during peak growing season for th...

To date, the majority of our knowledge regarding the impacts of herbivory on arctic ecosystem function has been restricted to short‐term (<5 years) exclusion or manipulation experiments. Our understanding of long‐term responses of sustained herbivory and/or herbivore exclusion on arctic tundra ecosystem function is severely limited. Recent evidence...

Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs) and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the 3rd to 5th assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system model...

Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse scar-bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice-rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition...

The landscape of the Barrow Peninsula in northern Alaska is thought to have formed over centuries to millennia, and is now dominated by ice-wedge polygonal tundra that spans drained thaw-lake basins and interstitial tundra. In nearby tundra regions, studies have identified a rapid increase in thermokarst formation (i.e. pits) over recent decades in...

Temperature is increasing at unprecedented rates across most of the tundra biome. Remote-sensing data indicate that contemporary climate warming has already resulted in increased productivity over much of the Arctic, but plot-based evidence for vegetation transformation is not widespread. We analysed change in tundra vegetation surveyed between 198...

How the greening of Arctic landscapes manifests as a change in ecosystem structure and function remains largely unknown. This study investigates the likely implications of plant community change on ecosystem function in tundra near Barrow, Alaska. We use structural data from marked plots, established in 1972 and resampled in 1999, 2008 and 2010 to...

Knowledge of how arctic plant communities will respond to change has been largely derived from plot level experimental manipulation, not from trends of decade time scale environmental observations. This study documents plant community change in 330 marked plots at 33 sites established during the International Biological Program near Barrow, Alaska...

To determine the role lemmings play in structuring plant communities and their contribution to the 'greening of the Arctic', we measured plant cover and biomass in 50 + year old lemming exclosures and control plots in the coastal tundra near Barrow, Alaska. The response of plant functional types to herbivore exclusion varied among land cover types....

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to t...

Background/Question/Methods The function of Arctic tundra ecosystems is predicted to be impacted by climate change. These changes have the capacity to alter the future state of both the Arctic and the Earth Systems. However, few decade-time scale studies exist to validate this conjecture. We present a novel approach that utilizes results from rep...

Background/Question/Methods In many ecosystems, herbivores can regulate a range structural and functional attributes including primary productivity, species composition and cycling of nutrients. In the Arctic however, the strength and direction of ecosystem responses to herbivory have been difficult to detect and often vary widely among tundra typ...

Herbivores can be strong drivers of vegetation structure whose effects often vary depending on such things as primary productivity, the species makeup and structure of plants and herbivores, and other factors. In the Arctic however, the strength and direction of these effects have been difficult to detect and often vary widely among tundra types. I...

The International Polar Year-Back to the Future (IPY-BTF) is an endorsed International Polar Year project (IPY project #214). The overarching goal of this program is to determine how key structural and functional characteristics of high latitude/altitude terrestrial ecosystems have changed over the past 25 or more years and assess if such trajector...

To determine the role lemmings play in structuring plant communities and their contribution to the 'greening of the Arctic', we measured plant cover and biomass in 50 + year old lemming exclosures and control plots in the coastal tundra near Barrow, Alaska. The response of plant functional types to herbivore exclusion varied among land cover types....

In the absence of long-term monitoring, revisiting, re-sampling and assessing environmental change that has occurred at Arctic and alpine research sites established several decades ago represent a largely untapped change detection capacity. The primary objective of the ``International Polar Year - Back to the Future'' project, a three-year IPY proj...

Background/Question/Methods Penguins, returning from the open ocean after feeding, deposit marine-based nutrients on Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems, which may subsequently run-off into nearshore waters due to snowmelt. Any changes in penguin densities or diversity, due to human disturbance or climate change, may alter nutrient inputs to these en...

In the absence of long-term monitoring, revisiting, re-sampling and analyzing environmental change that has occurred at Arctic research sites established several decades ago represents a largely untapped change detection capacity. The primary objective of this three-year International Polar Year (IPY) project (214) coordinated through the Circumarc...