Mark A J Huijbregts

Radboud University | RU · Department of Environmental Science

Dealing with heterogeneous plastic waste – i.e., high polymer heterogeneity, additives, and contaminants – and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from plastic production requires integrated solutions. Here, we quantified current and future GHG footprints of direct chemical conversion of heterogeneous post-consumer plastic waste feedstock to ol...

Trophic rewilding is proposed as an effective approach to tackle biodiversity loss by restoring ecosystem dynamics through the reintroduction of large-bodied animals. Currently, evidence on the effectiveness of reintroduction programs is sparse and difficult to generalize. To better understand the ecological consequences of trophic rewilding, we si...

The current debate on the sustainability of bio-based products questions the environmental benefits of replacing fossil- by bio-resources. Here, we systematically analyzed the environmental trade-offs of 86 emerging bio-based materials compared to their fossil counterparts. Although greenhouse gas (GHG) life cycle emissions for emerging bio-based p...

There is growing evidence that climate change impacts ecosystems and socio-economic activities in freshwater environments. Consistent global data of projected streamflow and water temperature are key to global impact assessments, but such a dataset is currently lacking. Here we present FutureStreams, the first global dataset of projected future str...

Biodiversity is severely threatened by habitat destruction. As a consquence of habitat destruction, the remaining habitat becomes more fragmented. This results in time-lagged population extirpations in remaining fragments when these are too small to support populations in the long term. If these time-lagged effects are ignored, the long-term impact...

Understanding and predicting biodiversity responses to climate change are vital to inform conservation strategies, but this is not straightforward as climate change responses depend on the landscape context and differ among species. Here, we quantified changes in the distribution and abundance of 30 butterfly species in the Netherlands in relation...

Meeting the 1.5 °C target may require removing up to 1,000 Gtonne CO 2 by 2100 with Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs). We evaluate the impacts of Direct Air Capture and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS and BECCS), finding that removing 5.9 Gtonne/year CO 2 can prevent <9·10 ² disability-adjusted life years per million people an...

Macroecological studies that require habitat suitability data for many species often derive this information from expert opinion. However, expert‐based information is inherently subjective and thus prone to errors. The increasing availability of GPS tracking data offers opportunities to evaluate and supplement expert‐based information with detailed...

Aim The effects of land use and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on plant species richness are typically studied in isolation. Here, we quantified the combined effects of these two pressures on terrestrial plant species richness at a 0.25º spatial resolution across the globe. Location Global. Methods We first used local monitoring and experime...

Population density is a key parameter in ecology and conservation, and estimates of population density are required for a wide variety of applications in fundamental and applied ecology. Yet, in terrestrial mammals these data are available for only a minority of species, and their availability is taxonomically and geographically biased. Here, we pr...

The Paris Agreement’s temperature goals require global CO2 emissions to halve by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. CO2 capture and utilization (CCU) technologies are considered promising to achieve the temperature goals. This paper investigates which CCU technologies—using atmospheric, biogenic, or fossil CO2—are Paris compatible, based on life cycl...

Knowledge of ecological responses to changes in the environment is vital to design appropriate measures for conserving biodiversity. Experimental studies are the standard to identify ecological cause-effect relationships, but their results do not necessarily translate to field situations. Deriving ecological cause-effect relationships from observat...

Industrial clusters are considered more resource- and greenhouse gas-efficient than stand-alone industrial plants, but clustering may also act as a barrier to radical changes required for deep greenhouse gas emission reductions. Here we explore how clustering in an energy-intensive chemical industry cluster may influence attainability of the deep e...

Aim Climate change will likely modify the global distribution of biomes, but the magnitude of change is debated. Here, we followed a trait‐based, statistical approach to model the influence of climate change on the global distribution of biomes. Location Global. Methods We predicted the global distribution of plant community mean specific leaf ar...

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) based on purpose-grown lignocellulosic crops can provide negative CO2 emissions to mitigate climate change, but its land requirements present a threat to biodiversity. Here, we analyse the implications of crop-based BECCS for global terrestrial vertebrate species richness, considering both the land-...

Carbon storage in long-lived bio-based products is typically ignored or accounted for in a simplistic way in greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint calculations. We quantified the GHG footprint of medium density fiberboard (MDF) in Iran from poplar wood and bagasse, a by-product from sugarcane production. Inventory data was collected from sugarcane and pop...

Global biodiversity is increasingly threatened by anthropogenic environmental change. While there is mounting evidence that habitat loss is a key threat to biodiversity, global assessments typically ignore additional threats from habitat fragmentation. Here, we present a species-area model that integrates habitat size and connectivity, considering...

Technological characteristics and meteorological conditions are major determinants of the greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints of photovoltaic facilities. By accounting for technological and meteorological differences, we quantified the GHG footprints of 9992 utility-scale photovoltaic facilities worldwide. We obtained a median greenhouse gas footprint...

Green hydrogen, i.e., produced from renewable resources, is attracting attention as an alternative fuel for the future of heavy road transport and long-distance driving. However, the benefits linked to zero pollution at the usage stage can be overturned when considering the upstream processes linked to the raw materials and energy requirements. To...

Aim Mechanistic general ecosystem models are used to explore fundamental ecological dynamics and to assess possible consequences of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on ecosystems. The Madingley model is a mechanistic general ecosystem model (GEM) that simulates a coherent global ecosystem, consisting of photo-autotrophic and heterotrophic lif...

As a source of emerging infectious diseases, wildlife assemblages (and related spatial patterns) must be quantitatively assessed to help identify high-risk locations. Previous assessments have largely focussed on the distributions of individual species; however, transmission dynamics are expected to depend on assemblage composition. Moreover, disea...

Biodiversity footprints quantify the impacts on ecosystems caused by final consumption in a region, accounting for imports and exports. Up to now, footprint analyses have typically been applied to analyze past or present consumption patterns. Here, we quantify future land-based biodiversity footprints associated with three diverging Shared Socio-ec...

Aim Forecasting changes in species distribution under future scenarios is one of the most prolific areas of application for species distribution models (SDMs). However, no consensus yet exists on the reliability of such models for drawing conclusions on species' distribution response to changing climate. In this study, we provide an overview of com...

We introduce a new bottom-up model for simulating Future Technology Transformations in the European residential heating sector, FTT:Heat. The model simulates the uptake and replacement of heating technologies by households in all individual Member States up to 2050, and allows to simulate the potential effect of real-world policy instruments aiming...

Island faunas can be characterized by gigantism in small animals and dwarfism in large animals, but the extent to which this so-called ‘island rule’ provides a general explanation for evolutionary trajectories on islands remains contentious. Here we use a phylogenetic meta-analysis to assess patterns and drivers of body size evolution across a glob...

Identifying drivers of farm-level greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints of crop production can reveal opportunities to improve farming practices and enable more targeted GHG mitigation strategies. Although many studies evaluated the GHG footprints of crop production, differences between and within crops have not been systematically evaluated for a large...

Aim The stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH) postulates that species interactions shift from negative to positive with increasing abiotic stress. Interactions between species are increasingly being recognized as important drivers of species distributions, but it is still unclear whether stress-induced changes in interactions affect continental-to-globa...

Aim European grassland communities are highly diverse, but patterns and drivers of continental‐scale diversities remain elusive. This study analyses taxonomic and functional richness in European grasslands along continental‐scale temperature and precipitation gradients. Location Europe. Methods We quantified functional and taxonomic richness of 5...

Aim The recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe has been explained as resulting from a decrease in human persecution driven by widespread rural land abandonment, paralleled by forest cover increase and the consequent increase in availability of shelter and prey. We investigated whether land cover and human population density changes are relat...

Seed dispersal is a key process affecting the structure, composition and spatial dynamics of plant populations. Numerous plant species in the tropics rely upon animals to disperse their seeds. Humans have altered mammalian movements, which will likely affect seed dispersal distances (SDD). Altered SDD may have a range of consequences for plant comm...

Climate change poses a significant threat to global biodiversity, but freshwater fishes have been largely ignored in climate change assessments. Here, we assess threats of future flow and water temperature extremes to ~11,500 riverine fish species. In a 3.2 °C warmer world (no further emission cuts after current governments’ pledges for 2030), 36%...

Eco-efficiency, defined as the economic profit per unit of environmental impact, can largely differ between farms that produce the same crop. Understanding the underlying drivers of differences in eco-efficiency can help to identify effective options for increasing environmental product performance. Here, we analyzed differences in eco-efficiency b...

In the twenty-first century, modern bioenergy could become one of the largest sources of energy, partially replacing fossil fuels and contributing to climate change mitigation. Agricultural and forestry biomass residues form an inexpensive bioenergy feedstock with low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, if harvested sustainably. We analysed quantities...

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can act as a negative emission technology and is considered crucial in many climate change mitigation pathways that limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C; however, the negative emission potential of BECCS has not been rigorously assessed. Here we perform a global spatially explicit analysis of life-cycle...

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from direct land use change (LUC) in GHG footprint studies of crops are often estimated using national land use change statistics, as in many cases the exact location of crop cultivation and land use history is unknown. As such, these studies neglect spatial variability in land use change (amount and configuration) at...

Abstract Bioclimatic envelope models are commonly used to assess the influence of climate change on species' distributions and biodiversity patterns. Understanding how methodological choices influence these models is critical for a comprehensive evaluation of the estimated impacts. Here we systematically assess the performance of bioclimatic envelo...

Island faunas can be characterized by gigantism in small animals and dwarfism in large animals, but the extent to which this so-called ‘island rule’ provides a general explanation for evolutionary trajectories on islands remains contentious. Here we use a phylogenetic meta-analysis to assess patterns and drivers of body size evolution across a glob...

Aim Forecasting changes in species distribution under future scenarios is one of the most prolific areas of application for species distribution models (SDMs). However, no consensus yet exists on the reliability of such models for drawing conclusions on species distribution response to changing climate. In this study we provide an overview of commo...

Large carnivores can exert top-down effects in ecosystems, but the size of these effects are largely unknown. Empirical investigation on the importance of large carnivores for ecosystem structure and functioning presents a number of challenges due to the large spatio-temporal scale and the complexity of such dynamics. Here, we applied a mechanistic...

The article [ReCiPe2016: a harmonised life cycle impact assessment method at midpoint and endpoint level], written by [Mark A. J. Huijbregts · Zoran J. N. Steinmann · Pieter M. F. Elshout · Gea Stam · Francesca Verones · Marisa Vieira · Michiel Zijp · Anne Hollander · Rosalie van Zelm], was originally published Online First without Open Access. Aft...

Chemical pollution of surface waters is considered an important driver for recent declines in biodiversity. Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are commonly used to evaluate ecological risks of chemical exposure, accounting for variation in interspecies sensitivity. SSDs, however, do not reflect effects of chemical exposure on species abundanc...

Species distribution models (SDMs) are frequently used to understand the influence of site properties on species occurrence. For robust model inference, SDMs need to account for the spatial autocorrelation of virtually all species occurrence data. Current methods do not routinely distinguish between extrinsic and intrinsic drivers of spatial autoco...

Estimating the environmental impact of emerging technologies at different stages of development is uncertain but necessary to guide investment, research, and development. Here, we propose a systematic procedure to assess the future impacts of emerging technologies. In the technology development stage (technology readiness level < 9), the recommende...

Insights into subnational environmental impacts and the underlying drivers are scarce, especially from a consumption‐based perspective. Here, we quantified greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and land‐based biodiversity losses associated with final consumption in 162 regions in the European Union in 2010. For this purpose, we developed an environmentall...

The electrification of passenger road transport and household heating features prominently in current and planned policy frameworks to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. However, since electricity generation involves using fossil fuels, it is not established where and when the replacement of fossil-fuel-based technologies by electr...

Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is a lively field of research, and data and models are continuously improved in terms of impact pathways covered, reliability, and spatial detail. However, many of these advancements are scattered throughout the scientific literature, making it difficult for practitioners to apply the new models. Here, we present...

Packaging materials can be a source of chemical contaminants in food. Process-based migration models (PMM) predict the chemical fraction transferred from packaging materials to food (FC) for application in prioritisation tools for human exposure. These models, however, have a relatively limited applicability domain and their predictive performance...

Aim Predictions of plant traits over space and time are increasingly used to improve our understanding of plant community responses to global environmental change. A necessary step forward is to assess the reliability of global trait predictions. In this study, we predict community mean plant traits at the global scale and present a systematic eval...

Variability in consumer practices and choices is typically not addressed in comparisons of environmental impacts of traditional shopping and e-commerce. Here, we developed a stochastic model to quantify the variability in the greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints of product distribution and purchase of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs) via three prevale...

Dams contribute to water security, energy supply, and flood protection but also fragment habitats of freshwater species. Yet, a global species-level assessment of dam-induced fragmentation is lacking. Here, we assessed the degree of fragmentation of the occurrence ranges of ∼10,000 lotic fish species worldwide due to ∼40,000 existing large dams and...

In our recently published work, we incorporated planetary boundaries in the optimization of the United States (US) power sector in 2030. Yang claims there is a double-counting error in our results and encourages us to minimize direct emissions instead of life cycle emissions in our model. Here, we argue that Yang's main criticism based on the risk...

Land use and hunting are 2 major pressures on biodiversity in the tropics. Yet, their combined impacts have not been systematically quantified at a large scale. We estimated the effects of both pressures on the distributions of 1884 tropical mammal species by integrating species' range maps, detailed land-use maps (1992 and 2015), species-specific...

Species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely applied to assess current as well as future species distributions, for example to assess impacts of future environmental change on biodiversity or to underpin conservation planning. It has been repeatedly emphasized that SDMs should be evaluated based not only on their goodness of fit to the data, bu...

A reliable quantification of the potential effects of chemicals on freshwater ecosystems requires ecotoxicological response data for a large set of species which is typically not available in practice. In this study, we propose a method to estimate hazardous concentrations (HCs) of chemicals on freshwater ecosystems by combining two in silico appro...