Mark Bradley

Blue Door

Transportation network companies (TNCs) such as Uber and Lyft have grown tremendously over the last decade, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area. Nonetheless, relatively little publicly available data exist about the users of these services, their travel behaviors, volume of use, the times and locations of TNC trips, and how TNC services are...

With growing concerns about greenhouse gas emissions and traffic congestion, there is an emphasis on encouraging shifts to public transport, for both short and long distance travel. Major differences exist across countries in how successful these efforts are, and the United States is often used as the key example of a country with a strong resistan...

Adopting new methods in large longstanding surveys, such as National Travel Surveys, is associated with specific challenges. Aside from methodological issues, the continuation of time series and data that is usable for many, are important concerns. Multi-mode surveys are becoming common place and new methods are run in parallel to established metho...

BART Perks, offered by Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) and the San Francisco County Transportation Authority (SFCTA), was a six-month test program that provided incentives to riders for traveling during the shoulder hours of the morning peak period. The main goals of the Perks program were to: (1) reduce peak period and peak direction crowding, and i...

A great deal has been written in recent years in the travel behaviour research literature about “peak travel” or “peak car”—particularly with respect to the so-called “Millennials”, young adults currently between the ages of 16 and 35. The paper reports and extends the results of longitudinal multivariate regression analysis carried out on the US N...

Passively collected anonymous cell-phone based origin-destination data was incorporated in the spatial choice models of an activity-based modeling system developed for the Chattanooga-Hamilton County-North Georgia Transportation Planning Organization. This is believed to be the first time such "big data" has been incorporated in an activity-based m...

The estimation of demand for priced highway lanes is becoming increasingly important to agencies seeking to improve mobility and find alternative revenue sources for the provision of transportation infrastructure. However, many modeling tools fall short of what is required for robust estimates of demand with respect to toll and managed lanes in two...

This paper reports results from the second phase of a two-phase FHWA-sponsored project to test and demonstrate empirically the transferability of activity-based model (ABM) systems between regions. With data obtained from the 2008-2009 National Household Travel Survey, researchers estimated ABMs simultaneously for 13 metropolitan regions in seven U...

This paper describes a model system designed and implemented to simulate long-distance travel for all U.S. households. The model system was created in the final phase of FHWA research project Foundational Knowledge to Support a Long-Distance Passenger Travel Demand Modeling Framework. It is a tour-based system simulating individual tours for indivi...

In recent years, the primary sampling method used for household travel surveys has shifted steadily from random digit dial telephone contact to address-based sampling based on an initial contact by mail. One advantage in the use of address-based sampling is that researchers can control the geographic distribution of households that are invited to p...

The main objective of this study was to examine the performance of the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission trip-based and tour-based frameworks in the context of three specific projects started and completed within the past 20 years in the Columbus, Ohio, metropolitan area. Region- and project-level comparisons of the performance of the trip- and...

The California High Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) have developed a new statewide model to support evaluation of high-speed rail alternatives in the State of California. The approach to this statewide model explicitly recognizes the unique characteristics of intraregional travel demand and interreg...

This paper presents the regional travel forecasting model system (SACSIM) being used by the Sacramento (California) Area Council of Governments (SACOG). Within SACSIM an integrated activity-based disaggregate econometric model (DaySim) simulates each resident's full-day activity and travel schedule. Sensitivity to neighborhood scale is enhanced thr...

The paper discusses how the experimental design methods discussed in the preceding chapters, along with other methodological advances, can be used to address areas where SP techniques most need to be improved to deal with particular transportation contexts that are most prevalent in policy applications. Portfolio designs may be useful when people m...

This paper presents the activity-based regional travel forecasting model system being used by the Sacramento, California, Council of Governments. The SACSIM model system represents travel in the context of an integrated disaggregate econometric model of each resident's full-day activity and travel schedule. Sensitivity to neighbourhood scale is enh...

The primary purpose of this study was to investigate how relative associations between travel time, costs, and land use patterns where people live and work impact modal choice and trip chaining patterns in the Central Puget Sound (Seattle) region. By using a tour-based modeling framework and highly detailed land use and travel data, this study atte...

This paper presents the results of an evaluation study of the behavioral impacts of a high-occupancy toll (HOT) lane project in Minnesota. The I-394 MnPASS Express Lane Project is the fifth HOT lane project implemented in the United States. HOT lanes remain a new enough concept that there is little empirical information on methods for evaluating th...

Stated preference (SP) techniques have been applied in the field of transport studies for more than twenty years, and in marketing for more than thirty years. Both fields of study were represented by participants in the workshop, who are drawn from five continents; this provided the opportunity to compare and contrast experiences from different con...

This chapter makes a case for more widespread collection and use of process data to support transportation policy, both directly and indirectly, through travel demand modeling. Travel surveys generally collect information on the outcomes of decision processes. Trip/activity diary surveys, for example, tell us about the locations people decide to vi...

Travel demand modeling today is undergoing a transition from the conventional four-step models to a new generation of advanced activity-based models. The new generation of travel models is characterized by such distinctive features as the use of tours instead of trips as the base unit of travel, the generation of travel in the framework of daily ac...

Travel demand modeling today is undergoing a transition from the conventional four-step models to a new generation of advanced activity-based models. The new generation of travel models is characterized by such distinctive features as the use of tours instead of trips as the base unit of travel, the generation of travel in the framework of daily ac...

Intra-household interactions constitute an important aspect in modeling activity and travel-related decisions. Recognition of this importance has recently produced a growing body of research on various aspects of modeling intra-household interactions and group decision-making mechanisms as well as first attempts to incorporate intra-household inter...

A new model for scheduling travel tours is described. The model is essentially a discrete choice construct that operates with tour departure-from-home and arrival-back-home time combinations as alternatives. The proposed utility structure, based on continuous-shift variables, represents an analytical hybrid that combines the advantages of a discret...

Since the 1995 EIRASS conference the authors have been involved extensively in the design and implementation of new travel forecasting model systems for planning agencies in many metropolitan areas of the United States, with implementations in Portland, San Francisco, New York, and Columbus, and work in various stages of progress in Atlanta, Housto...

The severity of road congestion not only depends on the relation between traffic volumes and network capacity, but also on the distribution of car traffic among different time periods during the day. A new error components logit model for the joint choice of time of day and mode is presented, estimated on stated preference data for car and train tr...

A key difference between stochastic microsimulation models and more traditional forms of travel demand forecasting models is that microsimulation-based forecasts change each time the sequence of random numbers used to simulate choices is varied. To address practitioners concerns about this variation, a common approach is to run the microsimulation...

Recent Washington State Ferries (WSF) origin-destination travel survey data collection and model development activities are described. WSF performed similar activities in 1993. The lessons learned from the initial project helped to develop a better survey design and sampling plan. The overall survey response rate was 37%, about 28% higher than the...

The ongoing investigation into the determinants of alternative fuel vehicle choice is described. A stated preference vehicle choice survey was conducted for the 47 continental U.S. states, excluding California. The national survey is based on, and is an extension of, previous studies on alternative fuel vehicle choice for the state of California co...

Fleet demand for alternative-fuel vehicles (‘AFVs’ operating on fuels such as electricity, compressed natural gas, or methanol) is investigated through an analysis of a 1994 survey of 2000 fleet sites in California. This survey gathered information on site characteristics, awareness of mandates and incentives for AFV operation, and AFV purchase int...

In contrast to cross-sectional data, panel data provide us with the ability to directly observe and model changes in behavior resulting from changes in causal variables. Explicitly modeling change should allow more accurate predictions, at least for the short term. Model estimation using panel data, however, requires us to sort out various types of...

The scaling approach is a statistical estimation method which allows for differences in the amount of unexplained variation in different types of data which can then be used together in analysis. In recent years, this approach has been tested and recommended in the context of combining Stated Preference and Revealed Preference data. The paper provi...

Air quality in Southern California and elsewhere could be substantially improved if some gasoline-powered personal vehicles were replaced by vehicles powered by electricity or alternative fuels, such as methanol, ethanol, propane, or compressed natural gas. Quantitative market research information about how consumers are likely to respond to altern...

Systems of models which predict various aspects of travel behaviour—frequency of travel, choice of destination, choice of mode, choice of route, etc.—are now often applied to predict the influence of transport policies. The forecasting horizon for such studies is often as long as 15–25 years into the future. In recent years, the environmental and e...

There is growing interest in exploring the view that both revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data have useful information and that their integration will enrich the overall explanatory power of RP choice models. These two types of data have been independently used in the estimation of a wide variety of discrete choice applications...

A study was conducted to determine how demand for clean-fuel vehicles and their fuel is likely to vary as a function of attributes that distinguish these vehicles from conventional gasoline vehicles. For the purposes of the study, clean-fuel vehicles are defined to encompass both electric vehicles and unspecified (methanol, ethanol, compressed natu...

This paper summarises work done to assess the market potential and likely financial performance of a planned high-speed rail link connecting Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne, under a variety of scenarios concerning the services offered and the possible market responses of the competing transport modes in the corridor. In the Australian context, such...

This short paper provides a concise summary of important design features of various activity-based model systems that have been implemented or have recently been designed for planning agencies in the U.S. The models described are those for Portland, San Francisco, New York, Columbus, Atlanta, Sacramento, Bay Area, and Denver. We selected these mode...