Mark Bebbington

Mark Bebbington
Massey University · School of Agriculture and Environment

PhD

About

184
Publications
28,041
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3,482
Citations
Additional affiliations
January 1994 - present
Massey University
Position
  • Professor (Full)

Publications

Publications (184)
Article
It has been 30 years since the terms time-predictable (repose length increases with previous eruption size) and size-predictable (eruption size increases with repose length) entered the volcanological lexicon. While much evidence of, and models for, the former have emerged, the latter is still largely unsubstantiated. Statistical tests for size-pre...
Article
The attenuation of tephra fall thickness is most commonly estimated after contouring isolated and often irregular field measurements into smooth isopachs, with varying degrees of subjectivity introduced in the process. Here, we present an explicit description of the variability introduced into a semiempirical tephra attenuation relation. This opens...
Article
Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strategy requires a scientific assessment of the future evolution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent...
Article
Many spatio-temporal models have been proposed for forecasting the location and timing of the next eruption in a monogenetic volcanic field. These have almost invariably been fitted retrospectively. That is, the model has been tuned to all of the data, and hence an assessment of the goodness of fit has not been carried out on independent data. The...
Article
Full-text available
The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) with 49 eruptive centres in the last c. 250 ka presents many challenges to our understanding of distributed volcanic field construction and evolution. We re-examine the age constraints within the AVF and perform a correlation exercise matching the well-dated record of tephras from cores distributed throughout the f...
Article
Understanding future volcanic eruptions and their potential impact is a critical component of disaster risk reduction, and necessitates the production of salient, robust hazard information for decision-makers and end-users. Volcanic eruptions are inherently multi-phase, multi-hazard events, and the uncertainty and complexity surrounding potential f...
Article
Full-text available
Plain Language Summary Probabilistic forecasts of future destructive eruptions from re‐awakening volcanoes can inform decision‐making to help mitigate volcanic risk. However, a lack of data describing previous events at many volcanoes hinders robust forecasts. Often, the only available forecasts are those based on expert judgment and knowledge of o...
Article
Full-text available
Forecasting the likely style and chronology of activity within an eruption is a complex issue that has received far less attention than forecasting the onset and/or the magnitude. By developing a global data set of coded phases (discrete styles of activity within previous eruptions), we can model the resulting data using a semi‐Markov chain. Given...
Article
Full-text available
Auckland, a city of 1.6 million people, is situated atop the active monogenetic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). Thus, short-term eruption forecasting is critical to support crisis management in a future event, especially to inform decisions such as calling evacuations. Here we present an updated BET_EF for the AVF incorporating new data and the resu...
Article
Full-text available
Hazard assessment for infrastructure proximal to a volcanic vent raises issues that are often not present, or not as severe in hazard assessments for more distal infrastructure. Proximal regions are subject to a greater number of hazardous phenomena, and variability in impact intensity increases with the hazard magnitude. To probabilistically quant...
Article
For accurate and timely information on the evolving state of our volcanoes we need reliable short-term forecasts. These forecasts directly impact crisis management from evacuations, exclusion zones, and when it is safe to return. Eruption forecasting should not be viewed as an academic exercise or a theoretical discussion in a back room, nor is now...
Article
More than half of explosive volcanic eruptions contain multiple eruption phases with eruption dynamics (i.e., style, intensity, magnitude) varying with eruption progression. While probabilistic eruption forecast models constitute a useful tool for decision making during volcanic crises, the probabilistic forecast of likelihood, style and magnitude...
Article
Auckland, New Zealand's largest city (population of ~1.6 million), is situated atop the monogenetic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). As in many places faced with volcanic activity, evacuation is seen as the best risk mitigation strategy for preserving lives in the event of volcanic unrest and/or an eruption. However, planning for an evacuation can be...
Article
Full-text available
Mt. Taranaki is an andesitic stratovolcano in the western North Island of New Zealand. Its magmas show slab-dehydration signatures and over the last 200 kyr they show gradually increasing incompatible element concentrations. Source basaltic melts from the upper mantle lithosphere pond at the base of the crust (∼25 km), interacting with other stalle...
Article
Full-text available
ABSTRACT Mt. Taranaki is an andesitic stratovolcano in the western North Island of New Zealand. Its magmas show slab-dehydration signatures and over the last 200 kyr they show gradually increasing incompatible element concentrations. Source basaltic melts from the upper mantle lithosphere pond at the base of the crust (∼25 km), interacting with oth...
Article
Full-text available
The impact of natural disasters has been increasing in recent years. Despite the developing international interest in multihazard events, few studies quantify the dynamic interactions that characterize these phenomena. It is argued that without considering the dynamic complexity of natural catastrophes, impact assessments will underestimate risk an...
Article
Full-text available
Natural hazards can be initiated by different types of triggering events. For landslides, the triggering events are predominantly earthquakes and rainfall. However, risk analysis commonly focuses on a single mechanism, without considering possible interactions between the primary triggering events. Spatial modeling of landslide susceptibility (supp...
Article
Probabilistic multihazard risk assessment from natural hazard is still a challenge today. Current limitations are the number of different hazards that can be included in the assessment, the capacity to output detailed spatial results and access to data for inverse fitting models. A novel quantitative multi-hazard framework is proposed which permit...
Technical Report
Full-text available
In the lead up to the next Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) eruption, it is likely decision-makers will need to determine when and where to call an evacuation. Over the past two decades there has been a growing body of research aimed at exploring the use of quantitative hazard and risk models to support decision-makers. There is a wide range of existi...
Article
Using visual, seismic, SO2-gas and thermal infrared data collected over 3 months, we observed systematic variations in the steady-state Strombolian-style activity of Yasur volcano. Observations reveal insights into the relationship between explosion magnitude and style with shallow conduit and magmatic conditions. Powerful eruptive phases are domin...
Article
Grab sampling is often a convenient and cost effective way to sample bulk food materials, such as milk powder. On the other hand, modern auto-samplers can sample very small increments directly from the production process and they can be set to collect primary increments systematically. While the quantity of sampled bulk material is important, it is...
Article
Full-text available
We explore how volcanic hazards in a silicic volcanism-dominated caldera systems can be assessed by spatial and spatio-temporal statistical models using similar treatment to applied to dispersed mafic monogenetic volcanic fields. The central part of the Taupo Volcanic Zone is an ideal location for such study, containing more than 300 small to mediu...
Article
Landslide dams are a common hazard which threaten downstream human settlement or infrastructure, as their collapse may result in a flash flood. The danger is compounded by the amount of water accumulated; therefore, estimation of the time to failure becomes crucial for assessing engineering risk mitigation procedures. Dam dimension indices, descrip...
Article
Supervolcano eruptions are very low probability, but extremely high impact, geohazards. Taupo volcano hosted the youngest known supereruption (VEI8), the c. 1100 km³ Oruanui (Kawakawa) eruption at 25.4 ka BP. Eruptions from Taupo have had regional to global environmental effects, and a supereruption is acknowledged as one of the greatest risks to t...
Article
The dichotomy between probabilistic and scenario-based volcanic hazard assessments stems from their opposing strengths and weaknesses. The quantification of uncertainty and lack of bias in the former is balanced against the temporal narrative and communicability of the latter. In this paper we propose a novel methodology to bridge between the two,...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The Case Study is designed to develop a forecastable multi-hazard scenario environment with a lifespan/forecast horizon of 10-20 years. The purpose is to provide a testbed for multi-hazard forecasting, impact/operability analysis, economic analysis and decision-making tools. The requirement of decadal-scale hazard requires the scenario to be based...
Article
A volcanic regime classifies a specific volcanic hazard state during which eruption episodes and events share similar frequency, magnitude, composition, and style. The post-AD 960 Maero Eruptive Period (MEP) at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand) exemplifies such a distinctive eruptive period of volcanism. The deposits from intermittent eruptive episodes du...
Article
Modelling point processes with incomplete records is a challenging problem, especially when the degree of record completeness varies over time. For volcanic eruption records, we expect the degree of missingness to depend on both the time and the size of an eruption. We propose a time‐varying intensity function for a marked point process to model th...
Article
Evacuation is often a necessary volcanic risk mitigation measure. However, the focus is typically on primary evacuation from immediate life safety from the eruption, compared to secondary evacuation from loss of critical services and networked infrastructure. Evacuation, and the associated decision-making process, can be streamlined if probable eva...
Article
Full-text available
Forecasting eruption onsets has received much attention, in both the short and long term. However, an eruption is not easily reduced to an instant in time, and forecasting what happens after eruption onset has received little attention. Any useful definition of an eruption has to allow for activity over scales ranging from days to decades, and can...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This analysis describes a pilot study run over a 3600 km2 region of New Zealand to evaluate a method for developing a wildfire hazard index for New Zealand. It uses a statistical approach simulating many fires using the Canadian software Prometheus (Tymstra et al. 2010). The index for wildfires will be used to compare the wildfire risks with those...
Poster
Full-text available
This analysis describes a pilot study run over a 3600 km2 region of New Zealand to evaluate a method for developing a wildfire hazard index for New Zealand. It uses a statistical approach simulating many fires using the Canadian software Prometheus (Tymstra et al. 2010). The index for wildfires will be used to compare the wildfire risks with those...
Article
Full-text available
Forecasting the repose between eruptions at a volcano is a key goal of volcanology for emergency planning and preparedness. Previous studies have used the statistical distribution of prior repose intervals to estimate the probability of a certain repose interval occurring in the future, and to offer insights into the underlying physical processes t...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ) is one of the most productive silicic volcanic regions on Earth, and was established about 2 Ma due to the oblique subduction of Hikurangi Plateau of Pacific Plate at the southern end of the Tonga-Kermadec arc (Fig. 1). Its estimated mass magma output of 4000 km3 is dominated by 12 caldera-forming eruptions in the past...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Regular large-scale edifice collapse and regrowth is a common pattern during the long lifespans of andesitic stratovolcanoes worldwide. The >130 k.y. history of Mount Taranaki, New Zealand, is punctuated by at least 14 catastrophic collapses, producing debris avalanche deposits of 1 to >7.5 km3. The largest of these sudden events removed as much as...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
An ever-increasing global population has led to greater exposure to potentially damaging and even fatal consequences from volcanic eruptions. The high-pressure decision to call an evacuation in the midst of a crisis is a difficult one that involves considering uncertainty in the volcano's state as well as political and social factors. Advances in t...
Article
Volcanic hazard estimation is becoming increasingly quantitative, creating the potential for land-use decisions and engineering design to use volcanic information in an analogous manner to seismic codes. The initial requirement is to characterize the possible hazard sources, quantifying the likely timing, magnitude and location of the next eruption...
Article
A new type of stringent sampling inspection plan is proposed for cell counts generally in line with a Poisson or a mixed-Poisson type of distribution. The proposed plan is based on setting an upper envelope estimated from the sample counts which should remain below the given microbiological limit m. We used Monte-Carlo simulation methodology to eva...
Article
Full-text available
Robust time-varying volcanic hazard assessments are difficult to develop, because they depend upon having a complete and extensive eruptive activity record. Missing events in eruption records are endemic, due to poor preservation or erosion of tephra and other volcanic deposits. Even with many stratigraphic studies, underestimation or overestimatio...
Poster
Full-text available
A poster illustrating the framing of my PhD project for the development of a quantitative risk modelling framework for supporting crisis management decision-making. Available also from http://www.devora.org.nz/download/1134/
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Silicic small-volume volcanoes emerging from the extensive ignimbrite sheets of the Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ) have produced at least 220 km3 DRE volume of volcanic material within the last 500 ky. However, drill cores obtained from the geothermal field as well as pyroclastic successions relating to deep-seated phreatomagmatic eruptions have uncover...
Article
Full-text available
We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellingt...
Article
Modern bulk material production processes are high volume and high quality processes. The manual grab sampling of bulk material is known to be biased and unrepresentative. Auto-samplers, which are robotic samplers of bulk material in small increments, provide for better representative samples of the production process. The amount and sampling frequ...
Article
Full-text available
Spatial forecasting of volcanism and associated hazards in intraplate monogenetic volcanic fields is subject to large uncertainties in both data and models. We demonstrate a novel logistic regression method for mapping phreatomagmatic-magmatic eruption transition susceptibility using near-surface hydrologic, topographic, and geologic data. The meth...
Article
Full-text available
Tephra layers from 11 sediment cores were examined from a series of closely spaced lake and peat sites, which form an arc around the andesitic stratovolcano Mt. Taranaki, North Island, New Zealand. A new high-resolution composite tephra-deposition record was built, encompassing at least 228 tephra-producing eruptions over the last 30 cal ka BP and...
Article
The Fox Peak and Forest Creek Faults in South Canterbury show evidence for segmentation based on the surface expression of late Quaternary faulting. Slip rates were calculated at over 100 sites along the Fox Peak Fault from (a) global positioning system (GPS) and total station fault scarp profiles; (b) field measurements of fault geometry and kinem...
Article
Coeval rupture of imbricate reverse faults increases the moment magnitude (Mw) of the resulting earthquake. Detailed mapping and paleoseismic data can yield useful insights into the probability and Mw potential of multifault ruptures. We present a paleoseismic study of two active imbricate reverse faults, the Fox Peak and Forest Creek faults, in th...
Article
In monogenetic volcanic fields, where each eruption forms a new volcano, focusing and migration of activity over time is a very real possibility. In order for hazard estimates to reflect future, rather than past, behavior, it is vital to assemble as much reliable age data as possible on past eruptions. Multiple swamp/lake records have been extracte...
Article
We present a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate volumes for a series of eruptions from an assemblage of sparse proximal and distal tephra (volcanic ash) deposits. Most volume estimates are of widespread tephra deposits from large events using isopach maps constructed from observations at exposed locations. Instead, we incorporate raw thickne...
Article
Full-text available
Volcanic hazard analyses are desirable where there is potential for future volcanic activity to affect a proximal population. This is frequently the case for volcanic fields (regions of distributed volcanism) where low eruption rates, fertile soil, and attractive landscapes draw populations to live close by. Forecasting future activity in volcanic...
Article
Many cities around the world lie in the shadow of dangerous volcanoes. This potential for disaster has led to constant extensive monitoring of possible precursors to an eruption and probabilistic techniques to transform this monitoring information into eruption probabilities. Less developed are the decision models that determine the probability lev...
Article
The idea of a volcanic field ‘boundary’ is prevalent in the literature, but ill-defined at best. We use the elliptically constrained vents in the Auckland Volcanic Field to examine how spatial intensity models can be tested to assess whether they are consistent with such features. A means of modifying the anisotropic Gaussian kernel density estimat...
Article
Using 2 years of aftershock data and three fault-plane solutions for each of the initial M7.1 Darfield earthquake and the larger ( \(M >6\) ) aftershocks, we conduct a detailed examination of Coulomb stress transfer in the Canterbury 2010-2011 earthquake sequence. Moment tensor solutions exist for 283 of the events with \(M \ge 3.6\) , while 713 ot...
Article
Full-text available
Erratum to: Bull Volcanol (2015) 77: 6DOI 10.1007/s00445-014-0890-yIt has been drawn to our attention that the simple calculation of volume from the naïve isopachs (Fig. 2) by means of the Pyleogram contains an error (a factor of pi). The actual volume thus calculated should be 0.0077 km3. This error is not propagated into the remainder of the anal...
Presentation
Full-text available
Many cities around the world lie in the shadow of dangerous volcanoes. This potential for disaster has led to constant extensive monitoring of possible precursors to an eruption and probabilistic techniques to transform this monitoring information into eruption probabilities. Less developed are the decision models that determine the probability lev...
Article
Detailed tephrochronologies are built to underpin probabilistic volcanic hazard forecasting, and to understand the dynamics and history of diverse geomorphic, climatic, soil-forming and environmental processes. Complicating factors include highly variable tephra distribution over time; difficulty in correlating tephras from site to site based on ph...
Article
Full-text available
• Premise of study: One of the many advantages offered by automated palynology systems is the ability to vastly increase the number of observations made on a particular sample or samples. This is of particular benefit when attempting to fully quantify the degree of variation within or between closely related pollen types. • Methods: An automated p...
Article
Full-text available
Distributed "monogenetic" volcanic eruptions commonly occur in continental settings without obvious structural alignments or rifting/extensional structures. Nevertheless, these may develop as fissures, representing the surface expression of dykes with a range of orientations, especially when stress regimes vary over time and/or older crustal featur...
Article
The primary purpose of sampling inspection is the protection of consumer's interests. Although under simple cost models, sampling inspection never serves the producer's interest, some form of sampling inspection can be beneficial to the consumer under the same assumptions. We consider the case of isolated lot inspection, and examine the consumer ri...