Marjolein J.P. Mens

• Water Management
• Flood and drought risk analysis at Deltares

This paper explores how the concept of robustness can be defined and made operational for flood risk management. Decision making about taking actions to reduce the flood risk is complicated by uncertainties about the current and future flood probabilities and impacts. Because decision makers are increasingly aware of uncertainties, new decision-mak...

Om het landgebruik en waterbeheer beter op elkaar af te stemmen, is inzicht nodig in de werking van het water- en bodemsysteem. Dit vergt het integreren van kennis uit verschillende disciplines. Het vergt ook een nauwe samenwerking tussen ruimtelijke ordenaars, grondeigenaren en waterbeheerders. We hebben in dit rapport drie beproefde concepten/ond...

Climate change and human-modified landscapes have led to an increase in global flood and drought risks, while biodiversity has declined. The concept of using nature-based solutions (NbS) to improve the water retention capacity at the landscape scale, also known as ‘sponge functioning of catchments,’ has been recognised to help reduce and delay peak...

Recent impactful hydrometeorological events, on both the extreme wet and dry side of the spectrum, remind policymakers and citizens that climate change is a reality and that a shift in water management solutions is required. A selection of policy-shaping events in the Netherlands shows that both floods and droughts have occurred historically and co...

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and fe...

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions and fee...

Het Nationaal WaterProgramma (NWP) vormt een uitwerking van de Nationale Omgevingsvisie die voortvloeit uit de nieuwe Omgevingswet. In het NWP is onder meer een Nationale WaterSysteemVerkenning (WSV) aangekondigd, waarin is gesteld dat voor een aantal regio’s, waaronder het IJsselmeergebied, een integrale gebiedsanalyse gedaan dient te worden. Die...

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing³. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we sh...

Adaptive policymaking to prepare for current and future drought risks requires an integrated assessment of policy actions and combinations of those under changing conditions. This entails quantification of drought risks, integrating drought probability and socio-economic consequences for all relevant sectors that are potentially impacted by drought...

Adaptive policy-making to prepare for current and future drought risks requires an integrated assessment of policy actions and combinations of those under changing conditions. This entails quantification of drought risks, integrating drought probability and socio-economic consequences for all relevant sectors that are potentially impacted by drough...

Strategic decision-making on long-term drought risk management can be supported by integrated assessment models to explore uncertain future conditions and potential policy actions. Such models have to meet many – sometimes conflicting – requirements posed by policy-makers, model developers, and stakeholders. This paper discusses the case of the Nat...

Uncertainties in the rate and magnitude ofsea-level rise (SLR) complicate decision making on coastal adaptation. Large uncertainty arises from potential ice mass-loss from Antarctica that could rapidly increase SLR in the second halfofthis century. The implications ofSLRmaybe existential for a low- lying country like the Netherlands and warrant exp...

We thank the authors, Brunella Bonaccorso and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen for their constructive contributions to the discussion about the attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts. We appreciate that they support our opinion, but in particular their additional new ideas on how to better understand changes in impacts. It is great that they c...

For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We...

De zeespiegel kan mogelijk sneller gaan stijgen dan tot nog toe is aangenomen in het Deltaprogramma. Deze extra versnelling heeft te maken met recente inzichten over het mogelijk versneld afbreken en smelten van het landijs op Antarctica. In Deltaprogramma 2018 is opgenomen dat de mogelijke consequenties van de resulterende extra versnelde zeespieg...

The concept of resilience is used by many in different ways: as a scientific concept, as a guiding principle, as inspirational 'buzzword', or as a means to become more sustainable. Next to the academic debate on meaning and notions of resilience, the concept has been widely adopted and interpreted in policy contexts, particularly related to climate...

Developing fresh water supply strategies for the long term needs to take into account the fact that the future is deeply uncertain. Not only the extent of climate change and the extent and nature of its impacts are unknown, also socio-economic conditions may change in unpredictable ways, as well as social preferences. Often, it is not possible to f...

This white paper explains four novel concepts related hydrometeorological risk assessments. For each concept, the current state of the concept is described as a starting point for researchers and practitioners. Moreover, directions in which these promising concepts can be further developed are explored. The following four concepts are addressed: •...

Sustainable development of cities requires robust water supply systems, yet many cities need to resort to ad-hoc measures when faced with a drought. This paper aims to explore how cities can do better in reducing the risk of water shortage due to drought. To that end, we propose a classification of drought measures in urban water supply systems and...

Rapid urbanization and economic growth is leading to increased water demand of cities. At the same time, climate change may lead to more droughts or more severe droughts. Pro-active drought risk management is essential to reduce or avoid urban economic and societal water shortage losses. However, so far most drought research has focussed on the agr...

Droughts will likely become more frequent, greater in magnitude and longer in duration in the future due to climate change. Already in the present climate, a variety of drought events may occur with different exceedance frequencies. These frequencies are becoming more uncertain due to climate change. Many methods in support of drought risk manageme...

Flood risk management planning involves making decisions on which measures to implement and when to do so. This is particularly difficult in view of global changes, which are inherently uncertain. Rational decision making on which comprehensive strategy to implement, or on which measures to take first, requires ex-ante assessments that question whe...

Decision makers in fluvial flood risk management increasingly acknowledge that they have to prepare for extreme events. Flood risk is the most common basis on which to compare flood risk-reducing strategies. To take uncertainties into account the criteria of robustness and flexibility are advocated as well. This paper discusses the added value of r...

Floods and droughts have an increasing impact on societies worldwide. It is unlikely that the provision of flood protection infrastructure and reservoirs will eliminate this problem, especially as extreme events are expected to increase in probability and magnitude as a result of climate change. For this reason, the focus of water management has sh...

Droughts will likely become more frequent, of greater magnitude and of longer duration in the future due to climate change. Already in the present climate, a variety of drought events may occur with different exceedance frequencies. These frequencies are becoming more uncertain due to climate change. Many methods in support of drought risk manageme...

Decisions about flood risk management are usually based on the reduction in flood risk compared to the cost of the strategy. It is common practice to express this flood risk (the combination of flood probabilities and potential flood damages) in a single number. The downside of this approach is that explicit information about how the system respond...

Flood risk management planning involves making decisions on which measures to implement, and when to do so. Rational decision making on which comprehensive strategy to implement, or on which measures to take first, requires ex-ante assessments that question whether flood risk is effectively reduced, and against which societal costs. Such decision m...

Decision makers in fluvial flood risk management increasingly acknowledge that they have to prepare for extreme events. Flood risk is the most common basis on which to compare flood risk-reducing strategies. To take uncertainties into account the criteria of robustness and flexibility are advocated as well. This paper discusses the added value of r...

This presentation discusses the development of a new computational framework for the safety assessment of flood defence systems: Hydra-Ring. Hydra-Ring computes the failure probability of a flood defence system, which is composed of a number of elements (e.g., dike segments, dune segments or hydraulic structures), taking all relevant uncertainties...

The Netherlands' policy for flood risk management is being revised in view of a sustainable development against a background of climate change, sea level rise and increasing socio-economic vulnerability to floods. This calls for a thorough policy analysis, which can only be adequate when there is agreement about the "framing" of the problem and abo...

The aim of the program Climate Proof Fresh Water Supply (CPFWS), theme 2 within the Knowledge for Climate (KfC) program, is to develop knowledge about robust and flexible long-term solutions from a local to regional perspective that can contribute to successful strategies to bridge the growing mismatch between demand and supply of fresh water (quan...

Dit rapport geeft een tussentijds overzicht van ‘state of the art’ kennis uit lopend onderzoek van het consortium ‘Climate Proof Fresh Water Supply’ (CPFWS) dat in het kader van het onderzoeksprogramma Kennis voor Klimaat wordt uitgevoerd. De focus van dit onderzoek naar een klimaatbestendige zoetwatervoorziening ligt op lokale en regionale oplossi...

This document is intended to provide an overview of the wide variety of terms and concepts that are being used when discussing uncertainty. This document has been written in response to an expressed need by the Knowledge for Climate theme 2 consortium to get some clarity on the terminology that is being used when discussing uncertainty in various s...

This report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on the Schelde Estuary and the Thames Estuary and, fin...