Mariusz Ptak

Citation: Ptak, M.; Sojka, M.; Szyga-Pluta, K.; Baloch, M.Y.J.; Amnuaylojaroen, T. Is Everything Lost? Recreating the Surface Water Temperature of Unmonitored Lakes in Poland. Resources 2025, 14, 67. https:// Abstract: One of the fundamental features of lakes is water temperature, which determines the functioning of lake ecosystems. However, the ov...

Ice cover is one of the most important parameters of lakes as it impacts many physical and biogeochemical processes beneath the ice. Understanding the temporal trends in ice cover duration and thickness is of great significance in terms of sustainable lake management in an era of climate change. In this study, lake ice observation data from the pas...

In this study, long-term lake surface water temperature (LSWT) data were used to investigate the impact of climate change on thermal conditions in 25 Polish lowland lakes. The results show that the warming rate of the annual mean LSWT ranges from 0.14 °C per decade to 0.69 °C per decade with an average value of 0.44 °C per decade. The annual maximu...

Emphasis on future environmental changes grows due to climate change, with simulations predicting rising river temperatures globally. For Poland, which has a long history of thermal studies of rivers, such an approach has not been implemented to date. This study used 9 Global Climate Models and tested three machine-learning techniques to predict ri...

Water level fluctuations in lakes are one of the key parameters affecting their functioning and other environmental elements present in their vicinity. They also provide information about the entirety of processes occurring in the catchment area, both natural and anthropogenic, the result of which is the filling of the lake basin with water. This s...

This study analyzes changes in the water temperature in the Pilica River (Poland), encompassing both historical data (1958–2023) and projections extending to the year 2100. We use multi-model ensembles (MMEs) with Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to integrate various Global Climate Model (GCM) datasets for current and projected climate data. Addition...

One of the key parameters of lakes is water temperature, which influences many physical and biochemical processes. In Poland, in situ temperature measurements are or have been conducted in only about 30 lakes, whereas there are over 3000 lakes with an area larger than 10 hectares. In many cases, the length of existing observation series is not alwa...

The water temperature of lakes is one of their fundamental characteristics, upon which numerous processes in lake ecosystems depend. Therefore, it is crucial to have detailed knowledge about its changes and the factors driving those changes. In this article, a neural network model was developed to examine the impact of meteorological variables on l...

In the context of ongoing environmental changes, particularly against the backdrop of global warming, significant attention is being given to areas of exceptional natural value that, in many aspects, retain a pristine character. One such area is the Biebrza River in northeastern Poland, which, together with the wetlands in its basin, forms one of t...

Lakes are vital components of the hydrosphere, holding both environmental and economic significance. In recent times, they have undergone transformations in one of their key characteristics-water temperature. Assessing the scale and pace of these changes depends on the length and accuracy of the available data. This study focuses on the two lakes i...

The presence of ice cover on temperate lakes is a crucial factor in determining the functioning of these ecosystems. The isolation of water from atmospheric influences significantly alters physical, chemical, and biological processes, and the intensity of this impact depends on the duration of the ice cover. This study analyzed the basic parameters...

Rivers worldwide are warming due to the impact of climate change and human interventions. This study investigated river heatwaves in the Vistula River Basin, one of the largest river systems in Europe using long-term observed daily river water temperatures from the past 30 years (1991–2020). The results showed that river heatwaves are increased in...

Water temperature is a fundamental parameter of aquatic ecosystems. It directly influences most processes occurring within them. Hence, knowledge of this parameter’s behavior, based on long-term (reliable) observations, is crucial. Gaps in these observations can be filled using contemporary methodological solutions. Difficulties in reconstructing w...

Continuous software development and widespread access to satellite imagery allow for obtaining increasingly accurate data on the natural environment. They play an important role in hydrosphere research, and one of the most frequently addressed issues in the era of climate change is the thermal dynamics of its components. Interesting research opport...

Progress of global warming poses a great risk to river systems. However, how river heatwaves' characteristics change under climate change is still poorly understood. In this study, long-term reconstructed daily river water temperatures (RWT) from 125 hydrological stations in 70 rivers across Poland, were used. Bayesian estimator of abrupt change, s...

Water temperature is an important physical indicator of rivers because it impacts many other physical and biogeochemical processes and controls the metabolism of aquatic species in rivers. Having a good knowledge of river thermal dynamics is of great importance. In this study, an advanced machine learning based model that is fast, accurate and easy...

The thermal dynamics within river ecosystems represent critical areas of study due to their profound impact on overall aquatic health. With the rising prevalence of heatwaves in rivers, a consequence of climate change, it is imperative to deepen our understanding through comprehensive research efforts. Despite this urgency, there remains a noticeab...

Climate change is having a significant impact on the temperature dynamics of lakes worldwide, affirming the need for accurate modeling to inform management and conservation strategies.

Plain Language Summary Lake thermal dynamics are fundamental in controlling mixing processes and have significant implications for biological and geochemical processes. Consequently, the impacts of climate change on these dynamics can have severe consequences for the health of lakes and their aquatic ecosystems. In this context, mathematical models...

Accurate prediction of water temperature (T w) will greatly help in improving our understanding of the overall thermal regime fluctuation, and it can help in making sound decisions. While great efforts have been devoted to the development of T w models, further improvement in the prediction accuracy is challenging. Here, we propose a new hybrid mac...

The main objective of the this special session is to present the results of studies that investigate the responses of lake thermal dynamics to climate change using multiple techniques (e.g., field measurements, remote sensing, and modelling). We welcome any related researches in the proposed topic, e.g., studies analyze lakes around the globe, disc...

Over the centuries, extensive changes have occurred in the functioning of the hydrosphere. In the case of Poland, the hydrographic network has been significantly transformed, and many of its elements have ceased to exist. The aim of this study was to investigate renaturalised lakes and to determine their original volume, which is a fundamental para...

Water resources are of elementary economic and environmental importance, and the observed global transformations as well as regional environmental conditions necessitate activities aimed at providing an optimal amount of water at different levels. One such solution is hydrotechnical infrastructure that permits the precise control of the amount of w...

Lakes are an important element of the hydrosphere that contribute to the stabilisation of water circulation by providing biodiversity conditions or supporting the development of different branches of the economy. All these properties depend on the longevity of lakes in the environment and the processes related to their evolution. Based on archival...

In 2018, Europe experienced one of the most severe heatwaves ever recorded. This extreme event's impact on lake surface water temperature (LSWT) in Polish lakes has largely remained unknown. In this study, the impact of the 2018 European heatwave on LSWT in 24 Polish lakes was investigated based on a long-term observed dataset (1987–2020). To captu...

Lakes are vital components of the Earth's hydrological cycle and are susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Understanding the changes in terms of minimum and maximum lake surface temperatures is crucial for assessing the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems. This study focuses on ten lakes in Poland to investigate the impacts o...

Background: Interest in water chemical activity, its content, and its impact on human health has greatly increased throughout the last decade. Some studies suggest that drinking water with high hardness may have preventative effects on cardiovascular diseases. This study aims to investigate the association between drinking water hardness and cardi...

Study region: Lowland lakes located at Poland. Study focus: There are thousands of lowland lakes in Poland, however, many of them don’t have observed data of water temperatures. How can we simply estimate lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is challenging, and a few studies tried to deal with this issue. In this study, we proposed a simple method...

Despite several decades of observations of ice cover in Polish lakes, researchers have not broadly applied satellite images to date. This paper presents a temporal and spatial analysis of the variability in the occurrence of ice cover on lakes in the Drawskie Lakeland in the hydrological years 1984–2022 based on satellite data from Landsat missions...

Lake surface water temperature is one of the most important physical and ecological indices of lakes, which has frequently been used as the indicator to evaluate the impact of climate change on lakes. Knowing the dynamics of lake surface water temperature is thus of great significance. The past decades have witnessed the development of different mo...

Here, the capability of the Bat algorithm optimized extreme learning machines ELM (Bat-ELM) is demonstrated for river water temperature (Tw) modelling in the Orda River, Poland. Results using the multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN), the classification and regression Tree (CART) and the multiple linear regression (MLR) models were presented...

This study aimed at investigating the distribution of heavy metals (HMs: Zn, Pb, Cd, Ni, Cr, and Cu) in the bottom sediments of 28 reservoirs covered area of Poland. The paper evaluates the pollution of sediments with HMs and their potential toxic effects on aquatic organisms and human health on the basis of results provided by the Chief Inspectora...

Water temperature in lakes is their basic property that determines many processes. Changes in average values are thoroughly investigated using a long-term approach. Knowledge of extreme situations such as temperature minimums is still insufficient. This paper analyses changes in the minimum temperature in 10 lakes in Poland in the period 1972–2021....

Background River damming inevitably reshapes water thermal conditions that are important to the general health of river ecosystems. Although a lot of studies have addressed the damming’s thermal impacts, most of them just assess the overall effects of climate variation and human activities on river thermal dynamics. Less attention has been given to...

Water level in lakes fluctuates frequently due to the impact of natural and anthropogenic forcing. Frequent fluctuation of water level will impact lake ecosystem, and it is thus of great significance to have a good knowledge of water level dynamics in lakes. However, forecasting daily water level fluctuation in lake systems remains a tough task due...

This paper presents the impact of flow changes in the Warta River and water management rules regarding the Jeziorsko dam reservoir on the energy production by the hydropower plant in the period 1995–2021. The Jeziorsko dam reservoir was built in 1986. It is the second largest dam reservoir in Poland in terms of surface area. In 1994, a hydropower p...

The progressing development of civilisation and climate change require access to an appropriate quantity of environmental resources. One of the key resources is water. Both its deficit and excess evidently affect human life. Control over water circulation is possible owing to water management, largely involving introduction of hydraulic structures....

W pracy zaprezentowano historię funkcjonowania zbiornika Jeziorsko udokumentowaną na zobrazowaniach zarejestrowanych przez satelity Landsat. Programem satelitarny Landsat prowadzony jest od 50 lat przez Narodową Agencję Aeronautyki i Przestrzeni Kosmicznej rządu Stanów Zjednoczonych oraz Amerykańską Służbę Geologiczną znaną jako USGS. Historia budo...

Successively conducted monitoring and inspections allow for the detection of emerging issues and their elimination. The objective of this study is the analysis of the administrative procedures related to the monitoring of the technical condition of small hydraulic structures in Poland. The case study of the O ́swiecim Weir on the Prosna River prese...

Due to the allochthonous input of nutrients and species, the cumulative effects of water diversion on water-receiving lakes deserve attention. Taking the water diversion project from the Yangtze River to Lake Taihu (WDYT) as an example, we explored the temporal effects of WDYT on the phytoplankton community and physicochemical habitat of Lake Taihu...

W pracy zaprezentowano historię funkcjonowania zbiornika Jeziorsko udokumentowaną na zobrazowaniach zarejestrowanych przez satelity Landsat. Program satelitarny Landsat prowadzony jest od 50 lat przez Narodową Agencję Aeronautyki i Przestrzeni Kosmicznej rząd Stanów Zjednoczonych oraz Amerykańską Służbę Geologiczną znaną jako USGS od 50 lat. Histor...

This paper presents the state and spatial distribution of surface sediment contamination of 77 lakes in Poland by Cr, Ni, Cd, Pb, Zn, and Cu. The analyzed lakes were located within a network of nature protection areas in the territory of the European Union (EU). Spatial distribution of the heavy metals (HMs), factors favoring the delivery/accumulat...

Changes in lake water temperature, observed with the greatest intensity during the last two decades, may significantly affect the functioning of these unique ecosystems. Currently, in situ studies in Poland are conducted only for 38 lakes using the single-point method. The aim of this study was to develop a method for remote sensing monitoring of l...

Water temperature in rivers is the key property determining the biotic and abiotic processes occurring in these ecosystems. In many regions of the world, the significant lack of measurement data is a serious problem. This paper presents reconstruction of water temperature for selected Polish rivers with monitoring discontinued in the period 2015–20...

Poland has a considerable, but largely unused, hydropower potential. This state of affairs is mainly due to the environmental, social, economic and institutional barriers. Moreover, the consequences of climate change, which have been increasingly palpable over the last few years, result in more and more severe droughts, which also affect the econom...

Machines learning models have recently been proposed for predicting rivers water temperature (Tw) using only air temperature (Ta). The proposed models relied on a nonlinear relationship between the Tw and Ta and they have proven to be robust modelling tools. The main motivation for this study was to evaluate how the variational mode decomposition (...

The paper presents an assessment of water level fluctuations in eight lakes located in the Bory Tucholskie National Park (Poland). Mann-Kendall and Sen tests were applied to analyze the extent and direction of lake water level changes. For the purpose of detection of shoreline active zones, digital lake bottom models were developed based on bathyme...

Poland is among the European countries with the lowest water resources. The central part of Poland features the least water resources in the country. In this region, proper water management is particularly critical to maintaining high agricultural productivity. The objective of this study was to present the effects of the restoration of hydrotechni...

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an important indicator of marine system. In this study, the hybrid physically-statistically based air2water model was modified for the forecasting of SST. The hybrid model combines empiricism and theory, and balances the complexity and accuracy between the process-based physical models and statistical models. Daily...

The paper presents the historical overview and the current state of the hydropower sector in Poland. The history of Polish hydropower sector reaches over 120 years of tradition. The first power plants on Polish territory were built at the end of the 19th century. The development of the hydropower sector in Poland was irregular due to the First and...

Increasing water demand, combined with unfavourable climate change, creates a need for well-thought-out water management. Such goals are realised thanks to appropriate hydrotechnical infrastructure, the efficiency and functionality of which depend on its technical condition. In the literature, there is no method for the assessment of the technical...

The paper evaluates changes in the water temperature of the Vistula River – one of the longest rivers in Europe. Mean monthly and annual water temperatures from the period 1971–2017 for 11 stations along the entire length of the river revealed the increasing trends. The mean increase in water temperature in the analysed multi-annual period was 0.31...

The historical effects of land development on water management currently require a new approach, in many cases involving attempts at the restoration of the quasi-natural state. This is evident in reference to many regions in Poland, where the hydrographic network has been diminishing over the centuries, among others in favour of obtaining new agric...

The study presents changes in the elements of the hydrological regime of Lake Hańcza in the period 1960–2019, including water temperature, ice cover characteristics and water level. It was determined that statistically significant changes resulted in an increase in water temperature (0.11°C·dec⁻¹), a decrease in maximum ice thickness (5 cm·dec⁻¹) a...

The air2water model is a widely used tool for the forecasting of lake water temperatures and projection of climate change. It has been applied in thousands of lakes worldwide. However, it employed the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) as the calibration method, which was proposed more than 20 years ago. In this study, 12 advanced optimization algor...

The paper presents changes in the ice regime of lakes located in northern part of Poland. It was established that in the period of 1960‐2019, there was a successive decline of the lakes ice extent, clearly visible in individual parameters; formation of the ice cover is delayed by 3.0 days∙dec‐1 (on average for all lakes), its decline occurred earli...

Study Region The study region comprises 25 lowland Polish lakes in the northern part of the country. The studied lakes provide domestic, industrial and agricultural water supply, and are major attractions for tourism, thus playing a significant role in the Polish economy. Study Focus The expected impact of future climate change on lake surface wat...

The objective of this study was to analyse spatial variability of the trace elements (TEs) and rare earth elements (REEs) concentration in lake bottom sediments in Bory Tucholskie National Park (BTNP); Poland. The following research questions were posed: which factors have a fundamental impact on the concentration and spatial variability of element...

Lake water level fluctuation is a complex and dynamic process, characterized by high stochasticity and non-linearity, and difficult to model and forecast. In recent years, applications of machine learning (ML) models have yielded substantial progress in forecasting lake water level fluctuations. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the app...

Northern Hemisphere lakes are losing their ice cover due to climate change. Here we explored six decades of observational data (1961-2017) showing trends in air temperature, wind speed and precipitation over northern Poland, as well as changes in the ice conditions for five lakes with different morphometry. We evaluated whether and to what extent c...

Lake Śniardwy is the largest among more than 7000 Polish lakes. So far, it has not been a subject of detailed investigations concerning long-term changes in water temperature or ice regime. A considerable change in thermal and ice conditions has been observed in the period 1972–2019. Mean annual water temperature increased by 0.44°C dec–1 on averag...

The paper presents the applicability of LiDAR data in limnological research with respect to the identification of the shoreline of lakes, and consequently the scale of overgrowing of lakes. Data obtained from the Head Office of Geodesy and Cartography from the period 2011 2016 provided the basis for the identification of shorelines for 14 lakes of...

Prediction of rivers and lakes water temperature plays an important role in hydrology, ecology, and water resources planning and management. Recently, machines learning approaches have been widely used for modelling water temperature, and the obtained results vary depending on the kind of models and the selections of the appropriates predictors. In...

Aktuell ist einer der Hauptfaktoren, der über das Funktionieren von Ökosystemen von Seen entscheidet, der Klimawandel. Der Zusammenhang zwischen Lufttemperatur und Wassertemperatur bewirkt, dass in den meisten Fällen ein Anstieg dieser Wassertemperatur beobachtet wird. Tempo und Ausmaß der Veränderungen hingegen sind von einer Reihe parallel verlau...

Water level fluctuations are among the primary factors determining the functioning of lakes. The volume of filling lake basins with water is of high importance for the course of many processes and phenomena. A particular amount of water in the lake and water table stability are important from the point of view of human activity. These elements dete...

The paper presents the results of chemical analysis of lake waters in Bory Tucholskie National Park (BTNP). The BTNP area is unique due to its location within a single catchment and high variability in geological structure. Moreover, the lakes have different morphometric parameters, represent different hydrological types, trophic types and thermal...

The territory of Poland includes more than 7,000 lakes (1 ha or larger) with a total surface area of 281,377.0 ha, translating into the lake density index of 0.90%. The territory of Poland is evidently divided into the northern part, including 95% of all lakes, and the southern part poor in lakes. The situation is related to the last Scandinavian g...

Water temperature is one of the basic physical parameters of rivers and lakes. Rising temperature can transform these ecosystems over a broad range of factors (water mixing, water quality, biological conditions, etc.). In the case of rivers, their thermal regimes also can be modified by local conditions (e.g., tree cover, adjoining water bodies, et...

There are a total of several million lakes in the world, which includes only approximately 30 crater lakes. Due to this extreme global rarity, they are the subject of research in many scientific disciplines. In spite of the widespread interest in them, however, many issues still require detailed investigation. In the case of Morasko crater lake (Po...

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is a key indicator which drives ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying the impact of climate change on LSWT variations is thus of great significance. In this study, observed data of LSWT during the period 1969–2018 in a high mountain lake (Morskie Oko Lake, Central Europe) were analyzed. The results show...

Ice conditions in lakes are one of the basic factors considerably affecting the functioning of lake ecosystems, and the term of ice end modifies the course of further processes (thermal stratification, biological conditions, etc.) occurring outside the winter season. The paper presents the analysis of the effect of teleconnection patterns (NAO, SCA...

Ice conditions in lakes are one of the basic factors considerably affecting the functioning of lake ecosystems, and the term of ice end modifies the course of further processes (thermal stratification, biological conditions, etc.) occurring outside the winter season. The paper presents the analysis of the effect of teleconnection patterns (NAO, SCA...

W rozdziale przedstawiono charakterystykę termiczną wód powierzchniowych Jeziora Powidzkiego, bazując na 45-letnich obserwacjach prowadzonych przez Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej + Państwowego Instytutu Badawczego.

W rozdziale przedstawiono charakterystykę zjawisk lodowych na Jeziorze Powidzkim w oparciu o dane Instytutu Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowego Instytutu Badawczego. Uwzględniając 45-letnie obserwacje wodowskazowe oraz własne badania poczynione na akwenie, opisano etapy formowania się lodu na jeziorze oraz czynniki warunkujące powstanie...

In the context of climate changes, detailed information concerning the response of different components of the environment to the observed situation is of high importance. Due to strong correlations of air and water temperatures, water ecosystems have been subject to a considerable transformation for several decades. The paper presents the analysis...

The paper presents the dynamics of daily water temperature fluctuations in Lake Kierskie (West Poland) and determines the effect of air temperatures and wind speed on the variability of the parameter (water temperature). The analysis was based on hourly water temperature values from the period from May 2012 to January 2018. The data analysis permit...

W pracy przedstawiono wyniki badań, mających na celu określenie możliwości retencyjnych jezioro położonych w zlewni Panny w rejonie Pojezierza Gnieźnieńskiego (Polska środkowo-zachodnia). Badania oparto na analizie dostępnych danych hydrologicznych oraz na informacjach uzyskanych ze współczesnych i archiwalnych map topograficznych. Uzupełnione je o...

Aim of the study Indication of directions and pace of changes in ice regime of Jagodne Lake in 1975–2015. An analysis of predictability of ice phenomena in relation to stability and seasonality and an understanding mutual interactions between parameters describing ice regime of the lake. Material and methods Data from the Jagodne Małe water gauge s...

The paper presents the results of time-related changes in maximum temperatures in lakes. The analysis was carried out on the basis of 9 lakes located in the northern part of Poland. The analysis was based on daily water and air temperatures in the period 1971–2015. Mann–Kendall's and Sen's tests were applied to determine the directions and rates of...

W pracy przedstawiono wyniki badań, mających na celu określenie możliwości retencyjnych jezioro położonych w zlewni Panny w rejonie Pojezierza Gnieźnieńskiego (Polska środkowo-zachodnia). Badania oparto na analizie dostępnych danych hydrologicznych oraz na informacjach uzyskanych ze współczesnych i archiwalnych map topograficznych. Uzupełnione je o...

The article presents the analysis of water level fluctuations in Powidzkie Lake in the years 1961–2015. The study shows a considerable decrease in mean water levels in the aforementioned multiannual period, averaging 9 cm•decade–1. Such a situation is caused by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, co-determining water relations in the study ar...

Lake disappearance is one of the results of water eutrophication which leads to lake shallowing and overgrowth, and small and shallow lakes are the most threatened with degradation. We studied the effect of lake shallowing on its overgrowth, taking into account the morphometric parameters of water bodies. The study was performed in 20 lakes located...

The paper presents the characteristics of hydrological periods in an average annual cycle in Polish lakes. The types of period and their sequence determine the regime of water stages in lakes. The article applies the unsupervised approach to analysis of water level fluctuation patterns, where the regime is identified by grouping analytical paramete...

The paper presents a mineralogical analysis of sediments of the biggest lake in the Morasko Meteorite Reserve (Poland). The lake is filled by phytogenic sediments at the top, while at the bottom there are Neogene clays. The main components are: clay minerals in fine fraction and quartz and feldspars in coarse sandy fractions. The presence of distur...

W pracy przedstawiono długoterminowe zmiany stanów wody Prosny, jednej z głównych rzek w Wielkopolsce, tj. regionu, który powszechnie uchodzi jako jeden z najmniej zasobnych w wodę w Polsce. Ustalono, że w okresie ostatnich 40 lat średnie roczne stany wody Prosny cechowały się tendencją spadkową na poziomie 7,8 cm·dek-1 i były istotne statystycznie...

The paper presents long-term changes in water levels of Prosna, one of the main rivers in Wielkopolska, i.e. the region which is widely regarded as one of the least abundant in water in Poland. It was established that during the last 40 years the average annual water levels of Prosny showed a downward trend at the level of 7.8 cm-dec-1 and were sta...