Mariusz Pagowski

Mariusz Pagowski
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA

About

38
Publications
9,640
Reads
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2,314
Citations
Citations since 2016
2 Research Items
1344 Citations
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2016201720182019202020212022050100150200250
2016201720182019202020212022050100150200250
2016201720182019202020212022050100150200250

Publications

Publications (38)
Article
Full-text available
This study applies the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) 3D-Var assimilation tool originally developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to improve surface PM2.5 predictions over the contiguous United States (CONUS) by assimilating aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface PM2.5 in version 5.1 of the Community Multi...
Article
Full-text available
This study applies the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) 3D-Var assimilation tool originally developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to improve surface PM2.5 predictions over the contiguous United States (CONUS) by assimilating aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface PM2.5 in version 5.1 of the Community Multi...
Article
Full-text available
Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of three-dimensional chemical (including aerosol) concentrations and perform inverse modeling of input variables or model parameters (e.g., emissions). Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that si...
Article
This study focuses on the importance of initial conditions to air-quality predictions. We ran assimilation experiments using the WRF-Chem model and grid-point statistical interpolation (GSI), for a 9-day severe particulate matter pollution event that occurred in Shanghai in December 2013. In this application, GSI used a three-dimensional variationa...
Article
Full-text available
Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of three-dimensional chemical (including aerosol) concentrations and perform inverse modeling of input variables or model parameters (e.g., emissions). Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that si...
Article
Full-text available
Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) is an assimilation tool that is used at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in operational weather forecasting in the USA. In this article, we describe implementation of an extension to the GSI for assimilating surface measurements of PM2.5, PM10, and MODIS aerosol optical depth at 550...
Article
Full-text available
Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) is an assimilation tool that is used at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in operational weather forecasting. In this article we describe implementation of an extension to the GSI for assimilating surface measurements of PM2.5, PM10, and MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm with WRF-Chem. W...
Chapter
In a study, we examine impact of assimilation in-situ measurements on the prediction of fine aerosol concentrations over North America in the summer of 2012. We use an online meteorology-chemistry model WRF-Chem and an assimilation system which includes the Gridpoint Statistical Intepolation (GSI) and an Ensemble Kalman Filter. We note large initia...
Article
Full-text available
In a series of experiments we issue forecasts of fine aerosol concentration over the coterminous USA and southern Canada using the Weather Research and Forecasting - Chemistry model initialized with 3D-VAR or ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) assimilation methods. Assimilated observations include surface measurements of fine aerosols from the United St...
Article
This study presents a system to predict high pollution events that develop in connection with enhanced subsidence due to coastal lows, particularly in winter over Santiago de Chile. An accurate forecast of these episodes is of interest since the local government is entitled by law to take actions in advance to prevent public exposure to PM10 concen...
Article
Full-text available
In operational air-quality forecasting, initial concentrations of chemical species are often obtained using previous-day forecasts with limited or no account for the observations. In this article we assess the role that assimilation of surface measurements of ozone and fine aerosols can play in improving the skill of air-quality forecasts. An assim...
Article
Several air quality forecasting ensembles were created from seven models, running in real-time during the 2006 Texas Air Quality (TEXAQS-II) experiment. These multi-model ensembles incorporated a diverse set of meteorological models, chemical mechanisms, and emission inventories. Evaluation of individual model and ensemble forecasts of surface ozon...
Article
Full-text available
Families of solitary waves ("solitons") associated with two atmospheric bores on the same day were observed by an unprecedented number of ground-based and airborne profiling systems during the International H2O Project (IHOP). In addition, a very high-resolution numerical weather prediction model initialized with real data was used with success to...
Article
Kalman filtering (KF) is used to estimate systematic errors in surface ozone forecasts. The KF updates its estimate of future ozone-concentration bias using past forecasts and observations. The optimum filter parameter is estimated via sensitivity analysis. KF performance is tested for deterministic, ensemble-averaged and probabilistic forecasts. E...
Chapter
Full-text available
The scientific community that includes meteorologists, physical scientists, engineers, medical doctors, biologists, and environmentalists has shown interest in a better understanding of fog for years because of its effects on, directly or indirectly, the daily life of human beings. The total economic losses associated with the impact of the presenc...
Article
Full-text available
The scientific community that includes meteorologists, physical scientists, engineers, medical doctors, biologists, and environmentalists has shown interest in a better understanding of fog for years because of its effects on, directly or indirectly, the daily life of human beings. The total economic losses associated with the impact of the presenc...
Article
Full-text available
A warm fog detection (air temperature > -5°C) algorithm using a combination of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-12 (GOES-12) observations and screen temperature data based on an operational numerical model has been developed. This algorithm was tested on a large number of daytime cases during the spring and summer of 2004. Results...
Article
Full-text available
Strategies to improve covariance estimates for ensemble-based assimilation of near-surface observations in atmospheric models are explored. It is known that localization of covariance estimates can improve conditioning of covariance matrices in the assimilation process by removing spurious elements and increas-ing the rank of the matrix. Vertical c...
Article
Full-text available
1] In the summer of 2004, seven air quality models provided forecasts of surface ozone concentrations over the eastern United States and southern Canada. Accuracy of these forecasts can be assessed against hourly ozone measurements at over 350 locations. The ensemble of the air quality models is used to issue deterministic and probabilistic forecas...
Article
Due to the implicit character of flux–profile relationships in the atmospheric surface layer, in mesoscale modeling it is common practice to calculate fluxes of momentum, heat, and moisture with approximate formulas. The study presented here shows that a Newton–Raphson iterative procedure to calculate surface fluxes using broadly accepted formulati...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines the accuracy of high-resolution nested mesoscale model simulations of surface climate. The nesting capabilities of the atmospheric fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) were used to create high-resolution, 5-yr climate simulations (from 1 Octobe...
Article
Forecasts from seven air quality models and surface ozone data collected over the eastern USA and southern Canada during July and August 2004 provide a unique opportunity to assess benefits of ensemble-based ozone forecasting and devise methods to improve ozone forecasts. In this investigation, past forecasts from the ensemble of models and hourly...
Article
Full-text available
The real-time forecasts of ozone (O3) from seven air quality forecast models (AQFMs) are statistically evaluated against observations collected during July and August of 2004 (53 days) through the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now (AIRNow) network at roughly 340 monitoring stations throughout the eastern United States and southern Canada. One of...
Article
Regional climate simulations over eastern slopes of Rocky Mountains and adjacent High Plaines are performed in summer 2004 to examine impact of soil moisture on precipitation and to study performance of convective closures and ensemble of closures. Results are compared with cloud resolving simulations and observations to assess feedback between con...
Article
Forecasts from seven air quality models and ozone data collected over the eastern USA and southern Canada during July and August 2004 are used in creating a simple method to improve ensemble-based forecasts of maximum daily 1-hr and 8-hr averaged ozone concentrations. The method minimizes least-square error of ensemble forecasts by assigning weight...
Article
Full-text available
In this study, a dense fog episode that occurred near Windsor, Ontario, Canada, on 3 September 1999 is investigated. The fog patch, with a spatial scale of several kilometers, reduced visibility on a major highway to a few meters and led to a series of collisions and loss of life. Satellite imagery and surface observations are used to analyze the p...
Article
There are many different parameterizations for deep convection that try to exploit the current understanding of the complicated physics and try to express the interaction between the large scale flow and the convective clouds in simple parameterized terms. These parameterizations quite often differ substantially in their fundamental closure assumpt...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, the ability of the MM5 mesoscale forecast model to simulate the air-sea interaction, boundary layer development, and mesoscale structure associated with a cold-air outbreak over the Labrador Sea is investigated. The case chosen was one for which research aircraft data and satellite imagery are available for validation. The default su...
Article
In this paper, we consider boundary-layer effects on atmospheric fronts. For this purpose we developed a dry, hydrostatic, two-dimensional numerical model with turbulence parameterized with the 1/2 -order eddy viscosity closure of Mellor and Yamada. In the surface layer we use Monin–Obukhov similarity and there is an interactive soil model to obtai...
Article
Full-text available
The International H 2 0 Project (IHOP_2002) offered an extensive array of ground-based and airborne remote sensing systems for producing what is probably the most complete set of observations ever collected of the evolving structure and dynamics of bores solitons, and solitary waves. Data were collected of a dual bore event on 4 June 2002 by spaced...

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