Marie-Elisabeth Lucienne Paté-Cornell

Marie-Elisabeth Lucienne Paté-Cornell
Stanford University | SU · Department of Management Science and Engineering

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122
Publications
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4,179
Citations
Citations since 2016
4 Research Items
1510 Citations
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2016201720182019202020212022050100150200
2016201720182019202020212022050100150200
2016201720182019202020212022050100150200

Publications

Publications (122)
Article
Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. T...
Article
Governments and large private satellite operators face a strategic decision for multipayload satellite programs: whether to use large consolidated satellites with multiple payloads or constellations of a few smaller spacecraft (here a “distributed” system). One advantage of the latter is that it allows faster replacement of failed payloads and more...
Chapter
Public-private enterprises engaged in providing education, energy, healthcare, security, and resilience are under scrutiny and stress. These large-scale public-private systems are very complex and involve rich interactions of behavioral and social phenomena with designed and emergent physical and organizational infrastructures that are increasingly...
Book
Examines current and prospective challenges surrounding global challenges of education, energy, healthcare, security, and resilience This book discusses issues in large-scale systems in the United States and around the world. The authors examine the challenges of education, energy, healthcare, national security, and urban resilience. The book cover...
Article
Full-text available
Imagine a situation where a group of adversaries is preparing an attack on the United States or U.S. interests. An intelligence analyst has observed some signals, but the situation is rapidly changing. The analyst faces the decision to alert a principal decision maker that an attack is imminent, or to wait until more is known about the situation. T...
Article
Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of...
Article
Full-text available
This article presents a model to estimate North Korea's uranium enrichment capacity and to identify probable bottlenecks for scaling up that capacity. Expert assessment is used to identify and estimate the size of key centrifuge materials and component stockpiles. Bayesian probability networks are used to characterize uncertainties in these stockpi...
Article
Long-term, multiple-payload satellites in Earth orbit can be designed either as consolidated or distributed satellite systems. A consolidated satellite architecture aggregates multiple payload capabilities onto individual large satellites. A distributed (or 'disaggregated') satellite architecture allocates payloads across multiple smaller, heteroge...
Article
The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable condit...
Article
Encounters with near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) are rare, but can have significant consequences for humanity. Probabilistic analysis of asteroid impact risks is important to fully understand the danger that they pose. This work builds on the prior development of a method and model to simulate the distribution of asteroid impact magnitudes on the Earth'...
Article
Cyber security is a critical concern for many organizations. One defense approach is to install firewalls, but their effectiveness is uncertain and the cheapest model may not be the best. One may try to inspect them for vulnerabilities that may have been introduced in the product's supply chain. Most existing models that quantify cyber risk do not...
Article
An insurgency is a structured movement intended to overthrow a constituted government through armed conflict. The ongoing insurgency in Afghanistan has challenged the United States' armed forces for more than 10 years. With more than a dozen known insurgencies being waged throughout the world, insurgency is a challenge that the US is likely to face...
Article
This paper presents and compares four models of games and risk analyses designed to support strategic and policy decisions, three focusing on national security issues and one on project management. They share a common core of probability, linked decisions among the parties involved, and risks to a principal decision maker. Their structure is based...
Article
Two images, "black swans" and "perfect storms," have struck the public's imagination and are used-at times indiscriminately-to describe the unthinkable or the extremely unlikely. These metaphors have been used as excuses to wait for an accident to happen before taking risk management measures, both in industry and government. These two images repre...
Article
Engineering risk analysis, traditionally applied to engineering systems, relies on the decomposition of the system under study into subsystems and of the scenarios affecting it into basic events. The same principles are applied to the study of insolvency. In particular, we introduce a model designed to estimate insolvency risk for property and casu...
Article
High-Impact, Low-Frequency (HILF) solar storm composed of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) resulting in Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) can have devastating effects on electric power grids worldwide. The recent interest in severe space weather is the result of the increasing solar cycle activity expected to peak in 2013, and of the aging of th...
Article
In this article, we examine the effects of shortcuts in the development of engineered systems through a principal-agent model. We find that occurrences of illicit shortcuts are closely related to the incentive structure and to the level of effort that the agent is willing to expend from the beginning of the project to remain on schedule. Using a pr...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
We present two complementary analysis models to study the effect of programmatic management decisions on the distribution of net present value for a fractionated satellite constellation. The goal is to begin development of an approach to quantify when system attributes associated with design flexibility have realizable benefits for space systems. T...
Article
Finding the best national strategy to prevent or delay a country from acquiring nuclear weapons continues to be a critical issue for U.S. policy makers. In this paper, we build on previous work to develop a model that addresses this question. This model identifies the strategy that minimizes the disutility of the overall cost of the strategy and th...
Article
This paper describes a risk analysis approach for assessing the progress of another country's nuclear weapons program over time. To handle the dynamics inherent to nuclear weapons development, we embed a semi-Markov decision process into a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network accounts for distributions on the time to transition between possible s...
Chapter
The risk of failure of a system can sometimes be simply characterized by the probability of system failure per time unit or operation. More often, it include both the probabilities and the consequences of the different failure scenarios, in which case the risk can be described by the probability distribution of the losses in a given time frame. Ris...
Chapter
Observing and recognizing precursors and near misses are essential parts of risk management. Many industries have implemented monitoring programs to that effect. The problem is to decide what to monitor, how to interpret the signal(s), and how to respond given the lead time. This article focuses on a Bayesian (probabilistic) approach to the design...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of all air traffic control systems. A probabilistic risk analysis of a next-generation air traffic control operational concept was conducted using Monte Carlo simulation. Results indicate that this safety-critical system would have a mean time between mid-air collisions of about 281 years in enrout...
Article
Full-text available
The medical device development process has become increasingly complex in recent years The advent of new technology nu ems. stricter regulatory requirements and the ever increasing importance of reimbursement decisions for successful device commercial require careful planning and strategy-setttng coordinated decisions and consistent rigorous busine...
Article
Full-text available
The modeling and/or simulation analysis of a game between a manager or a government can be used to assess the risk of some management strategies and public policies given the anticipated response of the other side. Three examples are presented in this chapter: first, a principal-agent model designed to support the management of a project's developm...
Article
Full-text available
Failure risks that involve intelligent actors depend on their moves and on the effects of these moves on a system or situation. This paper examines two cases: the risks of failure of a technical system and that of a stabilizing policy in the face of an insurgency. Two models of games and risks are presented here to support a decision in each of the...
Article
A one-year study, sponsored by The Institute for Health Technology Studies, was conducted by a team of Stanford University researchers to develop a linear model of the medical device development process, from concept to commercialization. The empirical field study involved interviewing and surveying individuals who had been involved with various st...
Chapter
The modeling and/or simulation analysis of a game between a manager or a government can be used to assess the risk of some management strategies and public policies given the anticipated response of the other side. Three examples are presented in this chapter: first, a principal-agent model designed to support the management of a project's developm...
Article
Full-text available
We analysed the trauma triage system at a specific level I trauma centre to assess rates of over- and undertriage and to support recommendations for system improvements. The triage process is designed to estimate the severity of patient injury and allocate resources accordingly, with potential errors of overestimation (overtriage) consuming excess...
Article
In the United States, medical devices represent an eighty-billion dollar a year market. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration rejects a significant number of applications of devices that reach the investigational stage. The prospects of improving patient condition, as well as firms' profits, are thus substantial, but fraught with uncertainties at t...
Article
Medical device regulation plays a significant role in the design, development, and commercialization of new medical technologies. A comprehensive understanding of the various regulatory requirements and their practical implementation is thus an essential cornerstone of successful medical device innovation. In this paper, we review the background, m...
Chapter
The methods of engineering probabilistic risk analysis and expected-utility decision analysis share a common core: a probabilistic model of occurrences of uncertain events. This model is based on systems analysis and on the identification of an exhaustive and mutually exclusive set of scenarios, their probabilities and their consequences. Both meth...
Article
Full-text available
Engineering risk analysis methods, based on systems analysis and probability, are generally designed for cases in which sufficient failure statistics are unavailable. These methods can be applied not only to engineered systems that fail (e.g., new spacecraft or medical devices), but also to systems characterized by performance scenarios including m...
Article
Full-text available
Decision support models help structure and inform complex choices under uncertainty. Two classic models are risk analysis and decision analysis. Risk analysis is understood here as risk characterization, and in some cases, the identification and benefit assessment of some risk management options. It is based on systems analysis and probability, and...
Article
Probabilistic risk analysis, based on the identification of failure modes, points to technical malfunctions and operator errors that can be direct causes of system failure. Yet component failures and operator errors are often rooted in management decisions and organizational factors. Extending the analysis to identify these factors allows more effe...
Article
A probabilistic method is presented to evaluate the economic value of fire monitoring by closed circuit TV camera in petroleum refineries. The proposed model is restricted to the analysis of risk reduction in an area where fires can be caused either by pump failure or by failure of valves and lines. The benefits come from reducing the time during w...
Article
Reliability analysis is the study of both the probability and the process of failure of a system. For that purpose, several tools are available, for example, fault trees, event trees, or the GO technique. These tools are often complementary and address different aspects of the questions. Experience shows that there is sometimes confusion between tw...
Article
This paper describes and illustrates the architecture of computer-based Dynamic Risk Management Systems (DRMS) designed to assist real-time risk management decisions for complex physical systems, for example, engineered systems such as offshore platforms or medical systems such as patient treatment in Intensive Care Units. A key characteristic of t...
Article
The U.S. Command, Control, Communication and Intelligence System (C3I) includes sensors (e.g., satellites and radars), communication links, and computer systems that allow gathering and processing of information that a missile attack on the continental United States may be on the way. The choice of a policy of response to such an attack depends in...
Article
Reports from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO) have emphasized the potential for injury to patients caused by failures in oxygen supply systems. This article presents a model of patient risk related to the process of supplying oxygen at a single university hospital....
Article
Project managers are recognizing that adequate resource reserves are a critical success factor in a project development environment that is complex and uncertain. Yet, justifying the need for project reserves is still a challenge, as is the optimal allocation of any available resources to minimize development uncertainties. This paper presents a mu...
Article
This paper addresses the treatment of ‘infancy problems’ in the reliability analysis of space launch systems. To that effect, we analyze the probability of failure of launch vehicles in their first five launches. We present methods and results based on a combination of Bayesian probability and frequentist statistics designed to estimate the system'...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter presents an analytical framework based on Bayesian analysis that was used to evaluate human and management risk factors for patients undergoing anesthesia, and the effects of a variety of proposed measures for mitigating those risks. More specifically, the analysis considers the frequency and the effects of various risk factors, the ex...
Article
Some program managers share a common belief that adding a redundant component to a system reduces the probability of failure by half. This is true only if the failures of the redundant components are independent events, which is rarely the case. For example, the redundant components may be subjected to the same external loads. There is, however, in...
Article
Short-term tradeoffs between productivity and safety often exist in the operation of critical facilities such as nuclear power plants, offshore oil platforms, or simply individual cars. For example, interruption of operations for maintenance on demand can decrease short-term productivity but may be needed to ensure safety. Operations are interrupte...
Article
Developing and managing information systems have always been challenging, but increased security concerns and tighter budget resources have made these tasks even more difficult in recent years. Increased networking, mobility, and telecommuting, while beneficial to business productivity, have introduced serious technical issues and potential securit...
Article
The optimization of warning systems includes the choice of signals to be monitored, the sensitivity of the alert level and the response to these signals. In organizations that design or manage complex, risk-critical systems, the problem is not only the observation of a signal, but also its accurate communication to the appropriate decision maker, a...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
We present a supply chain risk analysis that is based on a Monte Carlo simulation of a generalized semi-Markov process (G.S.M.P.) model. Specifically, we seek to estimate the probability distribution of supply chain losses caused by disruptions. This distribution is computed conditional on conservative hypotheses which are the following: (1) no add...
Article
Whereas concurrent design engineering (CDE) processes show great promise for reducing design time and cost, the implicit management of technical risk raises questions about the reliability of resulting designs. CDE team members (chairs) may not possess the skills to perform risk assessment. The authors propose that a risk analyst be integrated into...
Article
Budget restrictions and advances in technology are making the use of geographically distributed teams in satellite systems more common than ever. However, the influence of dispersion of design teams, cost, performance, and reliability of the final system is not always clear. An outside source may provide benefits in terms of increased skill and exp...
Article
In the choosing of a launch vehicle for a given mission or in the determination of insurance coverage and premiums for a given launch, accurate estimates of the probability of success of the different launch vehicles provide important information. There are three general approaches to estimating the probability of launch success. The first is to us...
Chapter
In this paper, we present a framework for early assessment of new medical technologies based on probability and systems analysis. Its purpose is to better inform decision-making during the design and development stages of a new device, where evidence is limited and classical statistical methods are not yet applicable. Decisions made by device manuf...
Chapter
In this paper, we analyze the probability of failure of space launch systems in their first five launches. The results are based first on frequentist statistics, then on a Bayesian analysis of the early performance of 41 types of rockets including NASA’s shuttle. The Bayesian method proves particularly useful when the experience base is small becau...
Article
Managers of complex engineering development projects face a challenge when deciding how to allocate scarce resources to minimize the risks of project failure. As resource constraints become tighter, balancing these failure risks is more critical, less intuitive, and can benefit from the power of quantitative analysis. This paper describes the Advan...
Conference Paper
Bayesian analysis of the future frequency of success of a given launch vehicle is based first on a prior probability distribution (i.e., before information from launches of the vehicle) of the frequency of success. This prior is then updated based on the performance of the vehicle so far. In this paper, we assess the probability of success of a lau...
Article
The constrained optimization of resource allocation to minimize the probability of failure of an engineered system relies on a probabilistic risk analysis of that system, and on ‘risk/cost functions’. These functions describe, for each possible improvement of the system's robustness, the corresponding gain of reliability given the considered compon...
Article
The attack that occurred on September 11, 2001 was, in the end, the result of a failure to detect and prevent the terrorist operations that hit the United States. The U.S. government thus faces at this time the daunting tasks of first, drastically increasing its ability to obtain and interpret different types of signals of impending terrorist attac...
Article
Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) can be an effective tool to assess risks and uncertainties and to set priorities among safety policy options. Based on systems analysis and Bayesian probability, PRA has been applied to a wide range of cases, three of which are briefly presented here: the maintenance of the tiles of the space shuttle, the managemen...
Article
This paper presents a model that determines the optimal budget allocation strategy for the development of new technologies for safety-critical systems over multiple decision periods. The case of the development of a hypersonic passenger airplane is used as an illustration. The model takes into account both the probability of technology development...
Article
Methods of engineering risk analysis are based on a functional analysis of systems and on the probabilities (generally Bayesian) of the events and random variables that affect their performances. These methods allow identification of a system's failure modes, computation of its probability of failure or performance deterioration per time unit or op...
Article
While NASA managers have always relied on risk analysis tools for the development and maintenance of space projects, quantitative and especially probabilistic techniques have been gaining acceptance in recent years. In some cases, the studies have been required, for example, to launch the Galileo spacecraft with plutonium fuel, but these successful...
Conference Paper
In risk management, the use of conservative estimates of failure probabilities across the components of a system or the different projects of a program, may yield suboptimal returns of resource investments. For example, reinforcing a less critical but expensive element may have a lesser effect on the overall failure probability of a system than add...
Article
In the last few years, NASA has shifted its mode of management of unmanned space missions from “flagship” missions to faster-better-cheaper (FBC) projects with reduced scope, budget and schedule. In order to examine the successful attributes and potential weaknesses of this new management style, the authors prepared four case studies at NASA's Jet...
Article
The construction of the International Space Station (ISS) may involve several thousand hours of space walks or “extravehicular activities” (EVAs). Among the many risks involved in EVAs, we focus here on potential failures of the external maneuvering unit (EMU) caused by impacts of space particles (micro-meteoroids and orbital debris). We present a...
Conference Paper
NASA is facing the problem of choosing a strategy for the future exploration of Mars. Many scientists and members of the public are interested in knowing if life, in some form, exists or ever existed on the planet. The missions required to search for life are complex, and the probability of a clear discovery in the short term is small. Other object...
Article
Full-text available
Stanford University has faced the challenges of global trends in the ''management of technology in the information age'' by creating, in its School of Engineering, a new department of Management Science and Engineering (MS&E). Competition and globalisation demand that the students be prepared to operate in a fast-changing world with sound bases, fl...
Article
While engineering projects are expected to accomplish more with fewer resources, the dependencies among these projects have continually increased. At NASA, for example, faster-better-cheaper (FBC) projects are being grouped into programmes to enhance the benefits of synergies among smaller projects, and to attenuate, through diversification, the ri...
Article
Recent worldwide trends include the information revolution, the explosion of biotechnologies, the globalisation of markets, the acceleration of the transition from research to markets, increased awareness of ecological fragility and a growing aversion to technological risk. These create new needs, opportunities and constraints, both in the workplac...
Conference Paper
Several years ago, NASA shifted its unmanned space program to a faster-better-cheaper (FBC) management style. As opposed to complex spacecraft that cost billions of dollars and required a decade of development, FBC projects have reduced scopes and are developed in approximately three years for about $200 million. In order to examine the successful...
Article
Airline maintenance operations affect the potential for flight delays and can also affect flight safety if signals of technical problems are missed or misinterpreted. In this paper, we use a probabilistic risk analysis model, represented by an influence diagram, to quantify the effect of an airline's maintenance policy on delays, cancellations and...
Article
Risk management is a critical function in all organisations, particularly those that operate high-risk systems such as chemical processing facilities or offshore oil platforms. In this context, risk management extends beyond the protection of financial assets to deal with issues of public concern including human safety and environmental impact. It...
Article
Uncertainty analyses and the reporting of their results can be misinterpreted when these analyses are conditional on a set of assumptions generally intended to bring some conservatism in the decisions. In this paper, two cases of conditional uncertainty analysis are examined. The first case includes studies that result, for instance, in a family of...
Article
The engineering risk analysis method can be extended to include some human and organizational factors and can be used in the medical domain; this transfer is illustrated by a description of a study of anesthesia patient risk. This study involves first a dynamic analysis of accident risks. The model is then extended by relating the basic events of a...
Article
The risk of catastrophic failures, for example in the aviation and aerospace industries, can be approached from different angles (e.g., statistics when they exist, or a detailed probabilistic analysis of the system). Each new accident carries information that has already been included in the experience base or constitutes new evidence that can be u...
Article
Effective management of the tradeoff between productivity and safety is a challenge in many industries that operate critical engineering systems such as nuclear power plants or offshore oil platforms. The objective of this paper is to link risk-management strategies to a system's safety and productivity over its lifetime. These strategies involve d...
Conference Paper
The faster-better-cheaper (FBC) mode of operation of NASA's unmanned space program requires explicit management of tradeoffs between risks, costs and schedule. In this paper, we examine some long-term issues that will arise as FBC becomes the standard for all types of space missions, including those that involve technological research and developme...
Conference Paper
NASA has recently changed the management style of its unmanned space program to a faster-better-cheaper (FBC) mode of operation. FBC projects have focused scopes and are developed in three years for about two hundred million dollars. A current study of four missions (Cassini as a base case, Mars Global Surveyor, Mars Pathfinder, and Deep Space Prob...
Article
Full-text available
The risk of EVAs is critical to the decision of whether or not to automate a large part of the construction of the International Space Station (ISS). Furthermore, the choice of the technologies of the space suit and the life support system will determine (1) the immediate safety of these operations, and (2) the long-run costs and risks of human pre...
Article
This paper describes the design of a normative engineering risk management system that performs four activities: diagnosis, dynamic evolution, decision making, and information gathering. The problem domain can be represented as a partially-observable Markov decision process (POMDP). By decomposing the POMDP into a separate model for each of the fou...
Article
The risk of death or brain damage to anesthesia patients is relatively low, particularly for healthy patients in modern hospitals. When an accident does occur, its cause is usually an error made by the anesthesiologist, either in triggering the accident sequence, or failing to take timely corrective measures. This paper presents a pilot study which...
Article
In this paper, we present a pilot study in which we use probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to assess patient risk in anesthesia and its human factor component. We then identify and evaluate the benefits of several risk reduction policies. We focus on healthy patients, in modern hospitals, and on cases where the anesthetist is a trained medical docto...
Article
This paper examines different levels of analytical sophistication in the treatment of uncertainties in risk analysis, and the possibility of transfer of experience across fields of application. First, this paper describes deterministic and probabilistic methods of treatment of risk and uncertainties, and the different viewpoints that shape these an...
Article
Complex engineered systems, such as nuclear reactors and chemical plants, have the potential for catastrophic failure with disastrous consequences. In recent years, human and management factors have been recognized as frequent root causes of major failures in such systems. However, classical probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) techniques do not accou...
Article
Most severe industrial accidents have been shown to involve one or more human errors and these are generally rooted in management problems. The objective of this paper is to draw some conclusions from the experience that we have acquired from three different studies of this phenomenon: (1) the Piper Alpha accident including problems of operations m...
Article
Industries that deal with hazardous systems are faced with the task of managing a spectrum of risks within resource constraints. They have essentially two options that can be combined in a global risk-management strategy: insurance (loss sharing) and risk mitigation through technical and organizational measures. In this article, global risk-managem...
Article
The offshore oil platform Piper Alpha was destroyed in July 1988 by a catastrophic fire. The causes of the accident included a combination of technical and organizational factors. In this paper, I describe the accident, its chronology, and the dependencies involved. I then examine some of the human errors that led to the disaster and their organiza...
Article
ARMS is a decision support system built to help operational managers hand/e hazardous situations onboard offshore production platforms. It provides the platform operators with an estimation of the risk level at any given time, and of expected changes in the risk level within a specified time window. It also provides guidance for rational risk manag...
Article
This paper discusses the issues, constraints and conflicts involved in risk management for industrial facilities and proposes a global and explicit approach to numerical safety goals. The use of such quantitative targets is part of a more general strategy of risk management. The factors involved are technical, organizational, ethical, social, legal...
Article
Full-text available
The tiles of the space shuttle orbiter are critical to its safety at reentry, and their maintenance between flights is time-consuming. We performed a probabilistic risk analysis to identify the most risk-critical tiles and to set priorities in the management of the heat shield. The model is based on a multiple partition of the orbiter's surface. Fo...
Article
This paper examines preferences among uncertain prospects when the decision maker is uneasy about his assignment of subjective probabilities. It proposes a two-stage lottery framework for the analysis of such prospects, where the first stage represents an assessment of the vagueness (ambiguity) in defining the problem's randomness and the second st...
Article
A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model, developed for the Thermal Protection System (TPS) of the space shuttle orbiter and presented in the previous paper, is used as a management tool to identify root-cause, organizational factors of the various failure modes. The objective is to set priorities in the process of resource allocation to minimiz...
Article
The thermal protection system of the space shuttle is one of its most critical subsystems because it protects the orbiter from heavy heat loads at reentry into the atmosphere. To optimize NASA's allocation of risk management resources, a probabilistic risk analysis model is developed for the black tiles, and a risk-criticality index is computed for...
Article
A probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) framework is used to identify the accident sequence of the 1988 Piper Alpha accident. This framework is extended to include the human decisions and actions that have influenced the occurrences of these basic events, and their organizational roots. The results of this preliminary analysis allow identification of a...
Article
This paper presents a structured set of numerical safety goals for risk management of existing energy facilities. The rationale behind these safety goals is based on principles of equity and economic efficiency. Some of the issues involved when using probabilistic risk analyses results for safety decisions are discussed. A brief review of existing...

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