Maria A. Prats

Maria A. Prats
University of Murcia | UM · Department of Applied Economics

PhD

About

73
Publications
14,143
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140
Citations
Introduction
I have a Ph.D. in Economics from University of Murcia and currently I am permanent Professor at the Applied Economics Department in the same University. My research interests are focused on interest rates, monetary policy, the interactions between economic growth and financial system and very recently I am interested in sustainability problems. https://webs.um.es/mprats/

Publications

Publications (73)
Article
In this paper the dynamics of the Spanish public debt-GDP ratio is analysed during the period 1850–2021. We use recent procedures to test for explosive bubbles in the presence under time-varying volatility (Harvey et al., 2016; Harvey et al., 2019, 2020; Kurozumi et al., 2022) in order to test the explosive behavior of Spanish public debt over this...
Article
Full-text available
This paper provides a review on machine learning methods applied to the asset management discipline. Firstly, we describe the theoretical background of both machine learning and finance that will be needed to understand the reviewed methods. Next, the main datasets and sources of data are exposed to help researchers decide which are the best ones t...
Article
Full-text available
Purpose This paper aims to analyze the dynamics of the Spanish public debt–gross domestic product ratio during the period 1850–2020. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a recent procedure to test for recurrent explosive behavior (Phillips et al. , 2011; Phillips et al. , 2015a, 2015b) to identify episodes of explosive public debt dynamics...
Article
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We address the issue of the sustainability Spain's external debt, using data for the period 1970–2020. To detect episodes of potentially explosive behavior of the Spanish net foreign assets over GDP ratio and the current account balance over GDP ratio, as well as episodes of external adjustments over this long period, we employ a recursive unit roo...
Article
The aim of this paper is to study the policies developed by local authorities in Spain to provide a safe environment on beaches in order to identify the strategies behind as well as the measures applied to enforce them. Our results, based on a survey of over 200 municipalities responsible for the 646 beaches awarded an ecolabel certification, the B...
Article
Beach tourism in an important industry in many countries, and in the Mediterranean it supposes an extra pressure on the seawater quality. Concern about this aspect led the European Union to issue a first directive on the quality of bathing water in 1976 and modify it in 2006. This regulation establishes a mandatory control, in all European Union (E...
Article
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In this article, we use tests of explosive behavior in real house prices with annual data for the case of Australia for the period 1870–2020. The main contribution of this paper is the use of very long time series. It is important to use longer span data because it offers more powerful econometric results. To detect episodes of potential explosive...
Article
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In this paper, we try to analyse the extent to which a redefinition of the monetary policy rule would help to avoid the zero-lower bound, as well as to explore the conditions needed to avoid that constraint. To that aim, we estimate the threshold values of the key variables of the policy rule: the inflation gap and the output gap. The threshold mod...
Article
The aim of this paper is to analyse to what extent the recognition of sustainable management of coastal resources may act as a driver of local economic growth. To this end, the importance of Blue Flag certification in promoting the development of a local tourism sector is analysed. Using a natural experiment based on some localities increasing the...
Article
Full-text available
We analyze the fiscal sustainability hypothesis for a panel of 20 European Union countries from 2000 to 2019. In particular, we employ new econometric methodologies that, to the best of our knowledge, are applied for the first time to the study of sovereign fiscal policy sustainability in these economies. Specifically, we estimate the panel ARDL te...
Article
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This paper analyzes the relationship between stock market capitalization to GDP and real GDP in 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) that joined the European Union in 2004 and 2007, with the objective of determining whether the financial markets played a role as drivers of economic development in these countries or vice versa. The meth...
Poster
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Primer premio innovación de innovación docente en la categoría de TFG. Autora: María José Fernández Villa-mariajose.fernandez18@um.es Tutora: María A. Prats -mprats@um.es .GRADO EN ECONOMÍA-Curso 2018/2019. INTRODUCCIÓN: Durante las últimas décadas, y especialmente a partir del estallido de la crisis de 2008, se ha mostrado un gran interés por anal...
Chapter
Full-text available
Since 1990s, in developing countries there is an important consensus on the effectiveness of monetary policy, together with the adoption of an inflation targeting regime, to reduce high rates of inflation. The success of the monetary policy, in a context of inflation targeting regime, depends on multiple factors and some of which weighs very negati...
Article
Depopulation of large parts of the territory is an important phenomenon in a many parts of Europe. Given its impact, public policies are demanded to increase the appeal of those locations in order to change that trend. In this paper we analyze what kind of policies are more successful to fight depopulation, whether those ones run by municipalities...
Article
According to several empirical studies, the Present Value model fails to explain the behaviour of stock prices in the long-run. In this paper we consider the possibility that a linear cointegrated regression model with multiple structural changes would provide a better empirical description of the Present Value model of U.S. stock prices. Our metho...
Article
Since the beginning of the financial crisis in summer 2007, the ECB has redirected traditional monetary policy, based on interest rates, to an unconventional monetary policy focused on the quantitative expansion of its balance sheet. In this context, the present paper aims to assess the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy instruments wi...
Chapter
Full-text available
En este capítulo se analizan la política monetaria y la política de tipo de cambio en la Eurozona y se examinan sus efectos para la economía española. En primer lugar, se estudia la política monetaria del BCE y su evolución, con especial atención a la situación abierta tras la crisis financiera internacional y a las medidas no convencionales que el...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
1. Introduction and motivation In Spain, as in many other countries, population is changing across the territory leading to new situations where population is concentrated in some areas, mostly large cities, while some smaller villages are being depopulated. The consequences are important, both from a purely geographical/demographical perspective (...
Poster
Full-text available
Poster presentado en la categoría de innovación docente universitaria en la categoría de TFM. Autor: José A. Zabala y Tutora: María A. Prats. OBJETIVO del TFM: Estudiar la efectividad y el impacto de las acciones de Política Monetaria (PM) no convencional sobre el crecimiento económico y la inflación en la Eurozona. CONCLUSIÓN BÁSICA: Evidencia de...
Article
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El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar si la crisis económica ha hecho que las empresas reduzcan su actividad innovadora y si es así, si este efecto ha sido especialmente intenso entre las empresas de menor dimensión. Mediante la estimación de diferentes modelos probit, los resultados indican un empeoramiento de los principales indicadores in...
Article
Full-text available
Trade and factor movements are increasing in importance as the world is becoming more and more globalized. In this paper we provide a brief survey of some of the most important studies which, through using the gravity equation and adding additional complexities of interest, have tested the link between trade and labour mobility. Since the seminal p...
Conference Paper
According to the Fisher hypothesis, in the medium or long term, nominal interest rates increase at the same rate as inflation do; and therefore, the real interest rate remains unchanged. If true, the most direct implication would be the neutrality of money and the ineffectiveness of monetary policy. However, the adoption of an anti-inflationary mon...
Conference Paper
According to the Fisher hypothesis, in the medium or long term, nominal interest rates increase at the same rate as inflation do; and therefore, the real interest rate remains unchanged. If true, the most direct implication would be the neutrality of money and the ineffectiveness of monetary policy. However, the adoption of an anti-inflationary mon...
Poster
Full-text available
Primer premio de la Asociación Libre de Economía (ALdE) a la innovación en docencia universitaria, en la categoría de TFG, 2017. INTRODUCCIÓN. El contexto actual de rápido crecimiento del stock de deuda de muchos países de la zona euro, ha hecho necesario el análisis de la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública. Por ello, en el presente estudio, se hac...
Article
This paper studies the importance of the development of financial markets in general, and the stock market in particular, from the review of existing literature in the area of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, and especially, the link between the stock market and economic growth. Through an empirical analysis for s...
Conference Paper
Según la teoría tradicional sobre determinación de los precios, la autoridad fiscal fija el déficit primario asegurando la solvencia fiscal para cualquier senda seguida por el nivel de precios: es el llamado escenario “monetario dominante”. Mientras que la teoría fiscal del nivel de precios sostiene que mantener la solvencia fiscal puede condiciona...
Article
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This paper makes a comparison between the gold standard and the euro through a study of Keynes's views on the need to manage the macroeconomic situation of an industrial economy. The essay centers on Keynes's first relevant economic work of the post World War I years, A Tract on Monetary Reform, analyzing its theoretical and practical content. The...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
A developed financial system is essential in a market economy. Therefore, this paper studies the importance of the development of financial markets in general, and the stock market in particular, from the review of existing literature in the area of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, and especially, the link between...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Este trabajo analiza los efectos de un sistema de evaluación continua basado en realizar diferentes actividades prácticas y, especialmente la técnica del One Minute Paper, con el fin de analizar y evaluar su interés. En concreto, se estudia el efecto de esta metodología docente sobre la valoración de las prácticas en la asignatura Sistema Financier...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
A developed financial system is essential in a market economy. The ultimate aim of the financial system is to canalize savings generated by surplus spending units to deficit spending units. Similarly, economic growth is very important for the institutions and economic policy, because is often associated the concept of economic growth to the prosper...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Un sistema financiero desarrollado es fundamental en una economía de mercado. Por ello, en este trabajo se estudia la importancia que tiene el desarrollo de los mercados financieros en general, y la bolsa en particular, a partir de la revisión de la literatura existente en el ámbito de las relaciones entre desarrollo financiero y crecimiento económ...
Article
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La crisis financiera internacional ha generado, desde el verano de 2008, un rápido crecimiento del stock de deuda en la eurozona. En este nuevo contexto se ha hecho indispensable el análisis y el seguimiento pormenorizado de la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública, así como su evaluación crítica. En el presente artículo, se propone analizar la sosten...
Article
Full-text available
The international financial crisis has been generating a rapidly growing stock of debt in the Eurozone since the summer of 2008. In this new context, the analysis and detailed monitoring of the sustainability of public debt and its critical evaluation has become crucial. In this article, we propose to analyze the sustainability of the public debt p...
Chapter
Full-text available
The financial crisis and the ensuing problems caused by its duration, worsening fiscal conditions and the fragility of the banking systems in some European countries all played a part in the increasing fragmentation of the main European finance markets, the break in monetary transmission and the deterioration of macroeconomic variables in the Euroz...
Article
Full-text available
En este trabajo se analiza las consecuencias que la distribución por tamaños de las empresas tiene en el tejido productivo español. Tras plantear los factores que suponen una especificidad en el caso de las empresas pequeñas y medianas de cara a su crecimiento y supervivencia en un entorno de crisis, se evalúan las consecuencias que, en términos de...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of the crisis on the innovative activity of Spanish companies according to their size and sector. In particular we test whether the economic crisis has made companies reduce their innovative activity and if so whether this effect was particularly strong among smaller companies. The results indicate tha...
Technical Report
Full-text available
La finalidad de este cuaderno de investigación de la Cátedra Fundación ICO sobre la financiación de la PYME en España es doble. De un lado, justificar la pretensión del Observatorio de la Fundación ICO, examinando la razón de ser y experiencia de otros observatorios reconocidos, nacionales o internacionales, tales la SBA, de Estados Unidos, o el Ob...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The purpose of this working paper published by the ICO Foundation Chair on the financing of SMEs in Spain is twofold. On the one hand, it seeks to justify the claim of the Observatory of the ICO Foundation, examining the rationale and experience of other recognized national or international observatories such SBA, US, or the Observatory for SMEs, E...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Este primer cuaderno de investigación de la Cátedra Fundación ICO sobre la financiación de la PYME en España recoge, a modo de estado de la cuestión, las características principales de las pequeñas y medianas empresas en España, dentro de un contexto europeo e internacional. El trabajo pone el foco en las diferencias entre los países centrales de l...
Article
Full-text available
Los ingresos públicos en EE.UU. se han situado desde el inicio de la crisis financiera de 2007-2008 por debajo de la media tras la II Guerra Mundial; mientras que los gastos, en porcentaje del PIB, se han situado por encima de la media. Esta situación ha provocado la aparición de déficit públicos, elevados y persistentes y una acumulación de deuda...
Chapter
Full-text available
El presente trabajo trata de analizar y facilitar las fuentes y los datos estadísticos y presupuestarios más significativos relacionados con la Dependencia en la Comunidad Autónoma Región de Murcia (CARM) y que se encuentran disponibles para un agente externo y objetivo. Los datos estadísticos, que han sido obtenidos de la CARM, del IMSERSO y del S...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
El estudio de caso es una técnica docente muy versátil y flexible, mediante la cual se propone al alumno una situación/hecho real para que éste desarrolle propuestas que conduzcan a un análisis o a una solución del mismo. En el ámbito de la Economía Aplicada, en general, y de las asignaturas de ámbito financiero en particular, es fácil, incluso rec...
Article
Full-text available
La crisis financiera y los problemas derivados de su posterior agravamiento, del deterioro de las condiciones fiscales y de la situación de fragilidad de los sistemas bancarios de algunos países europeos, contribuyeron a incrementar el grado de fragmentación de los principales mercados financieros europeos, la ruptura de la transmisión monetaria, y...
Article
Full-text available
Los ingresos públicos en EE.UU. se han situado desde el inicio de la crisis financiera de 2007-2008 por debajo de la media tras la II Guerra Mundial; mientras que los gastos, en porcentaje del PIB, se han situado por encima de la media. Esta situación ha provocado la aparición de déficit públicos, elevados y persistentes y una acumulación de deuda...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
According to several empirical studies, the Present Value model fails to explain the behaviour of stock prices in the long-run. In this paper we consider the possibility that a linear cointegrated regression model with multiple structural changes would provide a better empirical description of the Present Value model of U.S. stock prices. Our metho...
Article
Full-text available
El objetivo de este artículo es analizar y comparar las medidas de política monetaria no convencional implementadas en la Eurozona, en EE. UU. y en el Reino Unido desde el inicio de la crisis financiera internacional. Estas medidas se concretan en la expansión a gran escala del balance de los bancos centrales, mediante la compra de activos financie...
Article
Full-text available
Diseño de seminarios en el ámbito de la Economía Aplicada: una propuesta dinámica e intensiva en la aplicación de tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones María A. Prats Albentosa mprats@um.es Resumen En este trabajo se presenta un modo novedoso de realizar seminarios en clase que presenta notables ventajas frente a su versión tradicional...
Article
Full-text available
According to several empirical studies, the linear present-value model fails to explain the behaviour of stock prices in the long run. We analyse the possible presence of threshold cointegration between real stock prices and dividends for the US market during the period from 1871:1 to 2004:6. According to our results, the null hypothesis of linear...
Article
In this paper we consider the possibility that a linear cointegrated regression model with multiple structural changes would provide a better empirical description of the Spanish term structure of interest rates. Our methodology is based on instability tests recently proposed in Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) as well as the cointegration tests de...
Article
Este trabajo analiza las diferencias en la efectividad del mecanismo de transmisión monetaria en Alemania, Francia, Italia, España y Reino Unido en el período previo y posterior a la UEM. La metodología econométrica se implementa mediante un modelo VAR con perturbaciones ARCH. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que los países analizados partían de e...
Article
Full-text available
Este trabajo analiza las diferencias en la efectividad del mecanismo de transmisión monetaria en Alemania, Francia, Italia, España y Reino Unido en el período previo y posterior a la UEM. La metodología econométrica se implementa mediante un modelo VAR con perturbaciones ARCH. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que los países analizados partían de e...
Article
Full-text available
Este trabajo analiza las diferencias en la efectividad del mecanismo de transmisión monetaria en Alemania, Francia, Italia, España y Reino Unido en el período previo y posterior a la UEM. La metodología econométrica se implementa mediante un modelo VAR con perturbaciones ARCH. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que los países analizados partían de e...
Article
Full-text available
We use recent developments on threshold autoregressive models that allow deriving endogenously threshold effects to analyse the evolution of the US stock price-dividend relation over the period 1871 to 2004. More specifically, a mean-reverting dynamic behaviour of the stock price-dividend ratio should be expected once such threshold is reached. Our...
Article
Full-text available
The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Spain has changed since EMU establishment. The analysis is based on the fulfillment of the Expectations Hypothesis under rational expectations and the methodology is implemented through a cointegrated bivariate VAR model. The result...
Article
Full-text available
The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Spain has changed since EMU establishment. The analysis is based on the fulfillment of the Expectations Hypothesis under rational expectations and the methodology is implemented through a cointegrated bivariate VAR model. The result...
Article
In this paper, we analyze the influence of portfolio design on the goal of immunization in Spanish bond portfolios. Extending the work of Fooladi and Roberts (1992) and Bierwag et al. (1993), we test a wide set of strategies which includes duration-matching strategies and strategies based on the M-squared of Fong and Vasicek (1984) and the M-absolu...
Article
Full-text available
Although traditional immunization offers protection against parallel movements of theterm structure of interest rates (TSIR) exclusively, numerous studies have shown that thisstrategy offers near perfect immunization at an empirical level. This work reveals some of thefactors that justify this success by analyzing the influence of portfolio structu...
Article
En este trabajo contrastamos la teoría de las expectativas racionales en la estructura temporal de tipos del mercado interbancario español, con vencimientos comprendidos entre una semana y un año, a partir de una muestra de datos diarios entre junio de 1989 y diciembre de 1997. Aplicamos la metodología de VAR cointegrado de Campbell y Shiller (1987...
Article
The aim of this paper is to test the Rational Expectations Theory for the term structure of interest rates in a short-term asset market. Campbell and Shiller (1987) apply cointegration theory to present value models to test that theory for the case of very long run financial assets. In this paper, we reformulate their methodology in order to adapt...
Article
Full-text available
Resumen: Aunque la estrategia de inmunización tradicional defiende a una cartera de renta fija exclusivamente de los desplazamientos paralelos de la curva de tipos, a nivel empírico numerosas investigaciones han puesto de manifiesto que dicha estrategia ofrece un excelente grado de inmunización. En este trabajo desvelamos algunos de los factores qu...
Article
Full-text available
Aunque la estrategia de inmunización tradicional defiende a una cartera de renta fija exclusivamente de los desplazamientos paralelos de la curva de tipos, a nivel empírico numerosas investigaciones han puesto de manifiesto que esta estrategia ofrece un excelente grado de inmunización. En este trabajo desvelamos algunos de los factores que justific...
Article
Full-text available
Este trabajo presenta un resumen de la evidencia empírica disponible sobre la transmisión monetaria en la Unión Económica y Monetaria (UEM). Los resultados revelan un efecto muy lento, pero duradero, sobre los precios y un efecto rápido, pero transitorio, sobre el PIB. Destacan los efectos a través del canal de tipo de cambio y del coste de uso del...

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