Maria Lancieri

Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) | IRSN · BERSSIN - Seismic Hazard Assessment Section

Time-domain spectral matching is the most commonly used technique in earthquake engineering to obtain accelerograms for which the response spectrum is compatible with a smooth target spectrum, be it a polyline design spectrum or a hazard spectrum. These accelerograms are used for assessing the response of structures, usually beyond their linear ela...

An application of the naïve Bayesian classifier for selecting strong motion data in terms of the deformation probably induced on a given structural system is presented. The main differences between the proposed method and the “standard” procedure based on the inference of a polynomial relationship between a single intensity measure and the engineer...

We study the scaling of spectral properties of a set of 68 aftershocks of the 2007 November 14 Tocopilla (M 7.8) earthquake in northern Chile. These are all subduction events with similar reverse faulting focal mechanism that were recorded by a homogenous network of continuously recording strong motion instruments. The seismic moment and the corner...

It has been shown that the initial portion of P and S wave signals can provide information about the final earthquake magnitude in a wide magnitude range. This observation opens the perspective for the real-time determination of source parameters. In this paper we describe a probabilistic evolutionary approach for the real-time magnitude estimation...

Numerical models play a primary role in Cultural Heritage preservation. Nevertheless, the design of a realistic model remains challenging due not only to the complex behavior of masonry but also to the asynchronous building phases, the damage induced by natural and anthropic aggression, and the associated repairs. This paper discusses the impact of...

The building history of a cultural heritage building and the after-effects induced by extreme loads such as earthquakes have a durable impact on its modal parameters. This article aims to discuss the peculiarities of some modal parameters extracted from ambient vibration measurements in light of the complex history of Sant’Agata del Mugello. The Ro...

Historical seismicity is mainly defined from historical sources which are not always available. Yet historical buildings are a unique opportunity to record and study effects of past earthquakes at a given place. An innovative methodology is defined to improve knowledge of local historical seismicity. Such a methodology is based on an interdisciplin...

Seismic hazard estimation relies classically on databased ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) giving the expected motion level as a function of several parameters characterizing the source and the sites of interest. However, records of moderate to large earthquakes at short distances from the faults are still rare. For this reason, it is dif...

The Tohoku earthquake and associated tsunami in March 2011 caused a severe nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, where level 7 (International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - INES scale) meltdown at three reactors occurred. The underestimation of the seismic and tsunami hazards has been recognized and the seismic margins asses...

Seismic hazard estimation relies classically on data-based ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) giving the expected motion level as a function of several parameters characterizing the source and the sites of interest. However, records of moderate to large earthquakes at short distances from the faults are still rare. For this reason, it is di...

Classically the seismic hazard estimation relies on several ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) predicting the expected motion level in function of several parameters characterizing the source and the site., The recent development of strong motion networks, led to a great improvement of GMPEs. However, records of large earthquakes at short d...

We study the distribution of the aftershocks of Tocopilla Mw 7.7 earthquake of 2007 November 14 in northern Chile in detail. This earthquake broke the lower part of the seismogenic zone at the southern end of the Northern Chile gap, a region that had its last megathrust earthquake in 1877. The aftershocks of Tocopilla occurred in several steps: the...

The 2010 Maule earthquake is one of the largest events ever recorded with modern instruments. We used the continuous GPS (cGPS) records to invert for the kinematic rupture process using an elliptical sub-patch approximation. In agreement with previous inversions, the largest slip is found in the northern part of the rupture zone. By cross-correlati...

The great 11 March 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.1) ruptured a ~ 200 km wide mega-thrust fault, with average displacement of ~15-20 m. The earthquake triggered a large devastating tsunami as well as strong ground motion along the east Honshu coastline. Seismic activity in this area is characterized by a number of large earth...

The 14 November, Mw 7.8 2007 Tocopilla earthquake broke the southern part of seismic gap of northern Chile. The earthquake broke a rupture area 130 km by 30km along the deep plate interface between the Nazca and South American plates.The aftershock of this event were very well recorded by the IPOC (GFZ-IPGP-DGF) and Task Force networks (GFZ). Since...

Large earthquakes produce crustal deformation that can be quantified by geodetic measurements, allowing for the determination of the slip distribution on the fault. We used data from Global Positioning System (GPS) networks in Central Chile to infer the static deformation and the kinematics of the 2010 moment magnitude (M(w)) 8.8 Maule megathrust e...

We studied the correlation between the final event magnitude and four parameters obtained from the early portion of P and S phases for a set of high quality subduction events. These relationships are used in the framework of earthquake early-warning systems for real-time magnitude estimation. The investigated parameters are the low-pass-filtered pe...

PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is a software platform for regional earthquake early warning that integrates recently developed algorithms for real-time earthquake location and magnitude estimation into a highly configurable and easily portable package. The system is under active experimentation in Southern Italy on the...

We present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. Th...

The Mw 8.8 earthquake in central Chile ruptured more than 400 km along the subduction bound between the Nazca and the South American plates. The aftershock distribution clearly shows that this earthquake filled a well-known seismic gap, corresponding to rupture extension of the 1835 earthquake. The triggered post-seismic activity extends farther no...

The Northern Chile gap is generally considered to the site of the next megathurst event in Chile. The Tocopilla earthquake of 14 November 2007 (Mw 7.8) and aftershock series broke the southern end of this gap. The Tocopilla event ruptured a narrow strip of 120 km of length and a width that (Peyrat et al.; Delouis et al. 2009) estimated as 30 km. Th...

The Maule earthquake of February 27, 2010 occurred in Central Chile along a gap well identified since the early 90's. The 2010 event not only broke, as expected, the area of the 1835 event (Mw 8.5), but it propagated further South, breaking the rupture area of the May 21, 1960 earthquake (Mw 7.9), and further North overlapping the December 1, 1928...

The Mw=8.8 Maule 2010, Chilean earthquake provides an unprecedented opportunity to advance our understanding of the intensity of damage due to interplate mega-thrust earthquakes. The Maule earthquake ruptured more than 400 km of South-central Chile, had coseismic displacements of more than 5 meters, PGAs close to 1g, but produced a low level of dam...

Most earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) developed so far are conceived as either ‘regional’ (network-based) or ‘on-site’ (stand-alone) systems. The recent implementation of nationwide, high dynamic range, dense accelerometer arrays makes now available, potentially in real time, unsaturated waveforms of moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes r...

The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) is deployed in Southern Apennines along the active fault system responsible for the 1980, November 23, M s 6.9 Campania–Lucania earthquake. It is set up by 28 stations and covers an area of about 100 × 70 km2. Each site is equipped with a 1-g full-scale accelerometer and a short-period velocimeter. Due to its des...

We study the dynamic rupture propagation of a M 6.7 intraplate earthquake that occurred 16 December 2007, a month after a large thrust event of Tocopilla, Chile (M 7.7). The occurrence of a slab push event after a large subduction earthquake is well explained by Coulomb stress transfer models and crack dynamics. A dense seismic network, equipped wi...

In the framework of earthquake early warning (EEW) experimentation in Southern Italy, we have developed an integrated software platform called PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem). PRESTo is a methodology for regional EEW applications, based on a fully probabilistic and evolutionary approach. This means that probability dens...

The Spectrum Inversion Method (SIM) is an evolutionary approach developed to estimate magnitude with potential application in earthquake early warning (EEW). Given an EEW location estimate, continuously updated estimates of magnitude and its associated uncertainty are calculated by inverting the observed displacement spectra of available waveforms...

We study the kinematic and dynamic rupture propagation of the M 6.7, intraplate, intermediate depth, slab push earthquake that occurred 16 December 2007, a month after the large interplate thrust event of Tocopilla, Chile (M 7.7). The occurrence of a slab push event after a large subduction earthquake is well explained by Coulomb stress transfer an...

Most of worldwide developed Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are conceived as either ``regional'' (network-based) or ``on-site'' (stand-alone) systems (Kanamori,2005). A regional EEWS is based on a dense sensor network covering a portion or the entirety of an area that is threatened by earthquakes. The relevant source parameters (event locat...

We investigate the empirical relationships between the initial portion of P and S-phase and the final event magnitude, on the Tocopilla (Chile) event and its aftershocks. Such correlations, on which real-time magnitude estimation for seismic early warning is founded, have been widely studied on several data sets, merging earthquakes generated in di...

The region stricken by the Irpinia earthquake (Ms=6.9) on 1980, along the Southern Appenninc chain, is one of the highest seismic hazard areas of Italian peninsula.This event produced vast damaging and strong amplitude shaking on a wide area. This is mostly related to the occurrence of a multiple fracture process during which three different segmen...

The Spectrum Matching (SM) method is an evolutionary Bayesian approach to magnitude estimation with potential application in earthquake early warning (EEW). Given an EEW location estimate, continuously updated estimates of magnitude and its associated uncertainty are calculated by matching the observed displacement spectra of available waveforms wi...

We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates...

Glossary Definition of the Subject Introduction Earthquake Potential and Seismic Riskin the Campania Region Seismic Network Architecture and Components Real-Time Data Transmission System Network Management and Data Archiving Real-Time Earthquake Location and Magnitude Estimation Real-Time Hazard Analysis for Earthquake Early Warning Future Directio...

The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) is a modern infrastructure at the core of the ongoing Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS), under development in Southern Italy. The main target of the ISNet is to provide alerts for moderate to large earthquakes (M>4) to selected target sites in Campania Region, and to rapidly estimate ground shaking in the wh...

A regional EEWS is based on a dense sensor network covering a part of or the entire seismic source area. The relevant source parameters (event location and magnitude) are estimated from the early portion of the recorded signals and are used to predict, with a quantified confidence, a ground motion intensity measure at a distant location where a tar...

The ISNet (Irpinia Seismic Network) consists of 29 six-components seismic stations deployed in a 100×70 km2 area in Southern Italy, containing the fault system that generated the 1980, M=6.9, Irpinia earthquake. The seismic stations, equipped with both accelerometers and seismometers, are able to follow both the strong and the weak motion. The comp...

It has been shown that the initial portion of P- and S-wave signals can provide information about the final earthquake magnitude in a wide magnitude range. This observation opens the perspective for the real-time determination of earthquake source parameters. In this paper we describe a probabilistic, evolutionary approach for the real time magnitu...

Earthquake early warning systems are real-time monitoring infrastructures designed to provide a rapid notification of the potential effects of an impending earthquake at critical distant targets. The ability in predicting if an earthquake is going to be large from the first few seconds on the accelerograms is crucial in resolving the trade-off betw...

A new seismic network (ISNet, Irpinia Seismic Network) is now operating in the Southern Italy. It is conceived as the core infrastructure for an Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) under development in Southern Italy. It is primarily aimed at providing an alert for moderate to large earthquakes (M>4) to selected target sites in Campania Region a...

Based on the analysis of Mediterranean, near-source, strong motion records Zollo et al. [2006] (hereinafter referred to as ZLN) showed that peak displacement amplitudes of initial P- and S-wave seismic signals scales with the earthquake size in the moment magnitude range 4 < Mw < 7.4. Similar evidence have been also reported for southern California...

A prototype system for earthquake early warning and rapid shake map evaluation is being developed and tested in southern Italy based on a dense, dynamic seismic network (accelerometers + seismometers) under installation in the Apenninic belt region (Irpinia Seismic Network). It can be classified as a regional Earthquake Early Warning System consist...

We show that the low-pass filtered, peak amplitudes of initial P- and S-wave seismic signals recorded in the vicinity of an occurring earthquake source correlates with the earthquake magnitude and may be used for real-time estimation of the event size in seismic early warning applications. The earthquake size can be therefore estimated using only a...

A prototype system for earthquake early warning and rapid shake map evaluation is being developed and tested in southern Italy based on a dense, wide dynamic-range seismic network (accelerometers + seismometers) under installation in the Apenninic belt region (Irpinia Seismic Network). This system forms a regional Earthquake Early Warning System co...

The 27 February 2010, Maule earthquake took place in a region well identified as a seismic gap, where no large earthquake had occurred since 1835. The earthquake started inside the gap but it spread well beyond it breaking an area similar to that of the historical 1751 event. The region of the 1835 earthquake reactivated since 2004 with a series of...