Maria-Jesus Esteban-Parra

Maria-Jesus Esteban-Parra
University of Granada | UGR · Department of Applied Physics

Ph.D.

About

90
Publications
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3,332
Citations

Publications

Publications (90)
Chapter
The climateClimateof Sierra NevadaSierra Nevada conditions many relevant aspects for the living systems that inhabit it as well as the water resources of a region with semi-arid characteristicsClimate. Climate changeClimate changein Sierra NevadaSierra Nevada can be especially exacerbated by its mountain condition in a Mediterranean area, which mak...
Article
Full-text available
Future drought-hazard assessments using standardized indices depend on the period used to calibrate the probability distributions. This appears to be particularly important in a changing climate with significant trends in drought-related variables. This study explores the effect of using different approaches to project droughts, with a focus on cha...
Article
This study explores the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the headwater areas of the Duero River Basin, the largest basin of the Iberian Peninsula. To this end, an ensemble of 18 Euro-CORDEX model experiments was gathered for two periods, 1975-2005 and 2021-2100, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and w...
Article
High spatial resolution drought projections for the Iberian Peninsula (IP) have been examined in terms of duration, frequency, and severity of drought events. For this end, a set of regional climate simulations was completed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by two global climate models (GCMs), the CCSM4 and the MPI-ESM-...
Preprint
Full-text available
Process-based hydrologic models allow to identify the behavior of a basin providing a mathematical description of the hydrologic processes underlying the runoff mechanisms that govern the streamflow generation. This study focuses on a macroscale application of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over 31 headwater subwatersheds belonging...
Preprint
Full-text available
Monthly streamflow records from a set of gauging stations, selected to form a reference hydrologic network, are analyzed together with precipitation and temperature data to establish whether the streamflows in the Guadalquivir River Basin have experienced changes during the last half of the XXth century that can be attributed to hydrological forcin...
Article
Process-based hydrologic models allow to identify the behavior of a basin providing a mathematical description of the hydrologic processes underlying the runoff mechanisms that govern the streamflow generation. This study focuses on a macroscale application of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over 31 headwater subwatersheds belonging...
Article
Surface evapotranspiration (SFCEVP) plays an essential role in the climate, being the link between hydrological and energy cycles. Therefore, how it is approximated and its implication in the regional climate are important aspects to understand the effects of climate change, especially in transitional zones such as the Iberian Peninsula (IP). This...
Article
This work investigates climate-change projections over a transitional region between dry and wet climates, the Iberian Peninsula (IP). With this purpose, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven by two global climate models (CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR) previously bias-corrected, was used to generate high-resolution climate information. Si...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Yeste et al. | Cambios en la respuesta hidrológica de la Cuenca del Duero bajo escenarios regionalizados de cambio climático JIA 2019 | Línea Temática A VI Jornadas de Ingeniería del Agua. 23-24 de Octubre. Toledo RESUMEN En este trabajo se han analizado los cambios en la respuesta hidrológica de la Cuenca del Duero bajo escenarios regionalizados d...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
El objetivo de este trabajo ha consistido en analizar la respuesta hidrológica de la Cuenca del Duero a los forzamientos meteorológicos mediante la aplicación del modelo VIC en 2 subcuencas de cabecera. El análisis se ha dividido en tres partes interrelacionadas: 1) se ha calibrado el modelo para el período 10/2000 – 09/2009; 2) se ha realizado una...
Article
Full-text available
The temporal and spatial trends of 16 climate extreme indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures during the period 1987‐2016 at 28 stations distributed across Israel and Palestine territories in the Levant region were annually and seasonally analyzed. The non‐parametric Man‐Kendall test and the Sen's slope estimator were employed for t...
Article
Full-text available
This study presents a basin‐wide assessment about the spatiotemporal variability of streamflows in Ecuador for the period 1979–2015. The influence of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) on streamflow variability from February to April (FMA) period, as the months showing maximum streamflow for the wet season in Ecuador, and from June...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
El índice estandarizado de precipitación evapotranspiración (SPEI) y el índice estandarizado de evapotranspiración real (SPAEI) son dos índices que permiten la caracterización de la variabilidad espaciotemporal en una región dada en base a valores de evapotranspiración potencial (PET) y evapotranspiración real (ET r), respectivamente. Para obtener...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The objective of this work has been to evaluate the ability of the VIC model to simulate the hydrological response of the Iberian Peninsula under different climate scenarios. Taking as forcing several outputs from the WRF model for present and for future climate in the study area, three simulations have been carried out and the behavior of the dist...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This study aims to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of the annual and seasonal maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures, along with the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over the entire Levant region for the period 1987-2017. The temporal trends for these three variables were calculated at the annual and seasonal scales by using the...
Article
Full-text available
Climate-change projections for boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America has been addressed by statistical downscaling (SD) using the principal component regression with sea-level pressure (SLP) as the predictor variable. The SD model developed from the reanalysis of SLP and gridded precipitation GPCC data, has been applied to SLP outputs fro...
Article
Monthly streamflow records from a set of gauging stations, selected to form a reference hydrologic network, are analyzed together with precipitation and temperature data to establish whether the streamflows in the Guadalquivir River Basin have experienced changes during the last half of the 20th century that can be attributed to hydrological forcin...
Article
Full-text available
We present snow observations and a validated daily gridded snowpack dataset that was simulated from downscaled reanalysis of data for the Iberian Peninsula. The Iberian Peninsula has long-lasting seasonal snowpacks in its different mountain ranges, and winter snowfall occurs in most of its area. However, there are only limited direct observations o...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change projections for the last 30 years of the 21st century, for boreal summer precipitation in tropical America, have been made by developing a statistical downscaling (SD) model applied to the SLP outputs of 20 GCMs of CMIP5, for present climate (1970–2000), and for future (2071–2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For pr...
Article
Full-text available
We present snow observations and a validated daily gridded snowpack dataset that was simulated from downscaled reanalysis of data for the Iberian Peninsula. The Iberian Peninsula has long-lasting seasonal snowpacks in its different mountain ranges, and winter snowfalls occur in most of its area. However, there are only limited direct observations o...
Poster
Full-text available
In a context of global warming, the evapotranspiration processes will have a strong influence on drought severity. For this reason, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was computed at different timescales in order to explore the projected drought changes for the main watersheds in Spain. For that, the Weather Research and...
Article
Full-text available
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to show the benefits provided by downscaled fields to detect and analyze wet and dry periods over a region with high precipitation variability such as Spain. We have analyzed the spatiotemporal behavior of two widely used drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and t...
Article
The aim of this paper is the analysis of the detection and evolution of droughts occurred in Andalusia for the period 1901-2012, by applying three different drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Drought-Precipitation Index (IESP), computed...
Article
Full-text available
Identifying the relationship between large-scale climate signals and seasonal streamflow may provide a valuable tool for long-range seasonal forecasting in regions under water stress, such as the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The skill of the main teleconnection indices as predictors of seasonal streamflow in the IP was evaluated. The streamflow database...
Article
Full-text available
The influence of the tropical Pacific SST on precipitation in Colombia is examined using a 341 stations dataset covering the period 1979-2009. Through a Singular Value Decomposition the two main coupled variability modes show SST patterns clearly associated with canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki, respectively, presenting great coupling strength...
Article
This paper investigates the temporal variability and potential predictability of streamflow regimes in the north-eastern Spain for the 1970–2010 period. Two different regimes are found, those characterized for having peak flows in the winter and those where this maximum appears in the spring. The main characteristic time scales of streamflows in ea...
Article
Objetive: This work presents the study of the influence of global fields of sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST), as well as the impact of various climatic indices of teleconnections (NAO, PDO, NINO 3,4, etc.) on the air temperature in Colombia. Methodology: Applying a principal component analysis (PCA) on 42 temperature stati...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper the forecast skill provided by the tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) associated with El Niño and El Niño Modoki over seasonal precipitation in Colombia has been evaluated through a lagged singular value decomposition analysis. The seasonal rainfall in many parts of the country can be predicted with suitable skill using th...
Article
Full-text available
The ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to simulate precipitation over Spain is evaluated from a climatological point of view. The complex topography and the large rainfall variability make the Iberian Peninsula a particularly interesting region and permit assessment of model performance under very demanding conditions. Thre...
Article
Full-text available
A set of eight simulations at high spatial resolution (10 km) were performed with WRF to generate future projections of mean and extreme precipitation over Spain. The model was driven with two GCMs (ECHAM5 and CCSM3.0) under the conditions of three SRES emissions scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) which amounts to six future (2070-2099) climate simulations...
Article
The relationships between the main patterns of variability of the Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and the European land-surface temperatures (LSTs) at interannual-to-multidecadal time scales are investigated along the period 1872–2004. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used firstly to obtain the main spatio-temporal patterns of variabi...
Article
Full-text available
This paper investigates the spatial and temporal variability of streamflow in the Ebro river basin and its potential predictability. Principal Component Analysis applied to monthly streamflow series from 83 gauging stations distributed through the basin, reveals three homogeneous regions: Basque–Cantabrian, Pyrenees and Southern Mediterranean. Atte...
Article
Full-text available
This paper evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) sensitivity to eight different combinations of cumulus, microphysics, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes over a topographically complex region in southern Spain (Andalusia) for the period 1990–99. The WRF configuration consisted of a 10-km-resolution doma...
Article
Highlights ► Trends and synoptic patterns of heavy rainfall in Andalusia are investigated. ► A distinguished spatial pattern in the sign of trends is found, mainly in winter. ► There is a tendency towards less intense winter rainfall except in the south-east. ► Most of synoptic patterns of extreme rainfall are related to negative values of WeMO. ►...
Article
In this study three WRF simulations were carried out and analyzed to assess its accuracy to describe the main climate features of Southern Spain in terms of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. Present climate was represented by the last 30 year of the 20th Century (1970-1999). The model was evaluated using an observational n...
Article
This study presents a classification of synoptic patterns of heavy precipitation days in the South of the Iberian Peninsula. The database comprises 85 rain gauges with daily records in the period 1955-2006. A subdivision of the region under study in two sub-regions was carried out attending the nature of precipitation in this area: a smaller area i...
Article
We examine the climatic mechanisms associated to Miño streamflow anomalies during winter and spring, exploring the relationships between the streamflow and several atmospheric teleconnections patterns and seasonal sea level pressure and sea surface temperature (SST) for the previous and simultaneous seasons. The Miño river basin is located in the N...
Article
A regionalization procedure is proposed to define affinity regions in Andalusia (Southern Spain) regarding maximum and minimum temperature, and precipitation in order to validate a regional climate model (WRF). In situ observations are not suitable for model validation unless they are somehow upscaled. Therefore, a regionalization methodology was a...
Article
In Statistics, a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is a probabilistic density estimation method that consists of a linear combination of normal distributions. Model parameters, i.e. means and variances of each normal distribution, as well as the linear combination coefficients, can be estimated easily using the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. S...
Article
We examine the potential predictability of an important Iberian river (Douro) based on the coupling of a time series approach (ARMA) and previous seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. A comprehensive search for predictors has identified only two key regions where spring streamflow anomalies are stably correlated with previous winter SST...
Article
This study quantifies the contribution of the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) on interannual to decadal variations of the European land surface temperatures (LST), during the period 1872-2004. Using Singular Spectral Analysis, common quasi-oscillatory modes to the LST and SST have been identified, and a cross-correlation analysis has s...
Article
A study of the variability of the extreme rainfall events in the South of the Iberian Peninsula during the second half of the 20th century is presented. A dataset of 100 stations for the period 1961-2004 was used, and a quality control of daily precipitation records was carried out to ensure the homogeneity of the series. Some of the extreme rainfa...
Article
An evaluation of MM5 mesoscale model sensitivity to different parameterizations schemes is presented in terms of temperature and precipitation for high-resolution integrations over Andalusia (South of Spain). As initial and boundary conditions ERA-40 Reanalysis data are used. Two domains were used, a coarse one with dimensions of 55 by 60 grid poin...
Article
General Circulation models (GCMs) are used to obtain long scale global and regional projections of climate variables. To prove their predictive capacity and to improve their performance, it is needed to validate their results by comparing them with observacional or reanalysis data. In this work, the 20th century outputs of CCSM3, ECHAM5, GFDL21 and...
Article
An assessment of the skill of "Angular Distance Weighting" (ADW) technique used to interpolate daily precipitation records is presented. A dataset of 102 stations in the South of the Iberian Peninsula for the period 1961-2000 was used after overcoming a quality control carried out to ensure the homogeneity of the series. The interpolation method wa...
Article
Full-text available
Reliable time-series is the basic ingredient when analysing climatic changes. However, the errors in real data are frequently of the same order as the signal being sought. Therefore, the available long-term monthly series of Spanish minimum and maximum temperatures have been compiled from the late 19th century on, in order to compile a high-quality...
Book
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PROLOGUE by Leoncio García-Barrón, Vicente Jurado Doña & Arturo Sousa (Edition coordinators) Among nowadays’ scientific subjects with more social diffusion are included those related with the climate change and its impacts. Mass media are permanently transferring to the public opinion summaries of reports elaborated by administrative institutions....
Article
The winter precipitation anomalies in the European area have been analysed over the period 1900–98 based on the El Niño–Southern oscillation (ENSO) state. A set of winter and autumn ENSO events is first selected using the Sea-Surface temperature (SST) data of the Niño 3 region, with the constraint that the ENSO event is well developed during the wi...
Article
Full-text available
The winter sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere have been analyzed over the period 1873–2000 based on the ENSO state during the previous autumn. First, a set of extreme cold and warm ENSO events and periods that may be regarded as normal is selected using the SST data of the Niño-3 region. This selection is carried out for...
Article
The Iberian Peninsula precipitation and river flow regimes are characterized by large values of inter-annual variability, with large disparities between wet and dry years, especially in southern Iberia. This situation is a major problem for water resources management in general, and for the production of hydroelectricity in particular. Hydroelectri...
Article
Full-text available
We explore the relationship between the NAO and the solar radiation spatio-temporal variability in the European North Atlantic area during winter. Measured monthly sums of sunshine duration and short-wave downward solar flux reanalysis data have been used. Correlation analysis between the NAO index and the measured sunshine duration shows a dipolar...
Article
Full-text available
En este trabajo se estudia la influencia que ejercen las temperaturas de la superficie del mar (SST) de la región del Océano Atlántico sobre las precipitaciones en la Península Ibérica. Para ello se ha realizado primero un estudio independiente de cada una de las variables (SST atlántica y precipitaciones de la Península). Se trata de datos mensual...
Article
The Iberian Peninsula area is characterised by large values of inter-annual variability of precipitation. As a consequence river flow is also characterised by large disparities between wet and dry years, especially in southern Iberia. This situation portrays a major problem in water resources management in general, and production of hydroelectricit...
Chapter
The longest precipitation and temperature series of the peninsular Spain and Balearic Islands are analysed covering the periods 1880–1995 and 1900–1997 respectively. To identify coherent behaviour in these series, the PCA method has been used, resulting in several major noise-filtered time series. For temperature data, although two statistically si...