Maria Cristina Rulli

Politecnico di Milano | Polimi · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world's water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth's solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a r...

Healthy diets are known for their co-benefits of reducing environmental impacts and enabling the same agricultural resources to feed a larger human population. The EAT-Lancet (healthy reference) diet allows for compound benefits to human health and the ecosystem. It is unclear, however, to what extent the requirements of the EAT-Lancet diet may be...

Agriculture’s global environmental impacts are widely expected to continue expanding, driven by population and economic growth and dietary changes. This Review highlights climate change as an additional amplifier of agriculture’s environmental impacts, by reducing agricultural productivity, reducing the efficacy of agrochemicals, increasing soil er...

Transboundary assessments of water security typically adopt an ‘upstream’ perspective, focusing on hazards and vulnerabilities occurring within a given hydrological basin. However, as the moisture that provides precipitation in the hydrological basin probably originates ‘upwind’, hazards and vulnerabilities potentially altering the moisture supply...

On behalf of the journal, AGU, and the scientific community, we, the editors of Earth's Future, are delighted to publish the names of the 817 peer reviewers who provided 1,242 reviews for our journal in 2023 (italicized names have contributed three or more reviews). Your diligent efforts to provide timely comments on our submissions have significan...

Rising global populations and the limitations of traditional agricultural practices necessitate innovative solutions for food production. Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) emerges as a promising approach. However, the evaluation of the benefits and challenges associated with transitioning to CEA systems, particularly on a global scale, remai...

Soil salinization is a global phenomenon that affects large tracts of arid farmland worldwide. It contributes to the loss of soil fertility, declining yields, and – in the most severe cases – land unsuitability for cultivation. Irrigation water applications are both the main cause of and the solution to, anthropogenic (or ‘secondary’) salinization...

While animal-source foods contribute to 16% of the global food supply and are an important protein source in human diets, their production uses a disproportionately large fraction of agricultural land and water resources. Therefore, a global comprehensive understanding of the extent to which livestock production competes directly or indirectly with...

The emergence of SARS-like coronaviruses is a multi-stage process from wildlife reservoirs to people. Here we characterize multiple drivers—landscape change, host distribution, and human exposure—associated with the risk of spillover of zoonotic SARS-like coronaviruses to help inform surveillance and mitigation activities. We consider direct and in...

Sustainable development and intergenerational responsibility entail the prudent use of natural resources. Water availability can constrain agriculture, a key sector in terms of resources consumed and goods and services provided. The sustainability of its intensification and expansion has been studied, often with a particular focus on water. Agricul...

The primary challenge of agriculture and livestock production is to face the growing competition between food, feed, fibre, and fuel, converting them from resource-intensive to resource-efficient. A circular economy approach, using agricultural by-products/co-products, in the livestock production system would allow to reduce, reuse, and redistribut...

Non-technical summary Environmental threats to shelter, livelihoods, and food security are often considered push factors for intra-African human migration. Research in this field is often fragmented into a myriad of case studies on specific subregions or events, thus preventing a more comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon. This paper examin...

At the heart of the vision of sustainable development and intergenerational responsibility lies the prudent use of natural resources. Agriculture is a key sector both in terms of resources consumed and of goods and services provided. Recently Its intensification and expansion have been studied and their sustainability evaluated, often with a partic...

Climate change can potentially drive variations in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes, and in turn the impact these events have on agriculture. Agricultural damages resulting from extreme events can significantly affect food security at multiple scales, especially in contexts where pre-existing unfavourable social and economic con...

Land grabbing typically leads to social and environmental harms.

Agricultural large-scale land acquisitions have been linked with enhanced deforestation and land use change. Yet the extent to which transnational agricultural large-scale land acquisitions (TALSLAs) contribute to-or merely correlate with-deforestation, and the expected biodiversity impacts of the intended land use changes across ecosystems, remain...

The emergence of SARS-like coronaviruses is a multi-stage process from wildlife reservoirs to people. Here we characterize multivariate indicators associated with the risk of zoonotic spillover of SARS-like coronaviruses in different areas to help inform surveillance and mitigation activities. We consider direct and indirect transmission pathways b...

Understanding dryland dynamics is essential to predict future climate trajectories. However, there remains large uncertainty on the extent to which drylands are expanding or greening, the drivers of dryland vegetation shifts, the relative importance of different hydrological processes regulating ecosystem functioning, and the role of land-use chang...

Agriculture is the backbone of the Mozambican food system, and it represents not only the most important economic sector in the country but also the main user of natural resources such as water, land and eco-systemic services. However, more than 95% of agricultural areas consists of mostly rainfed smallholder farms, characterized by low yields and,...

Shallow landslides (SLs) are rapid debris flows slides, typically occurring in the mountain areas, involving the most superficial soil layers up to 5 to 10 m in depth. Damages, and casualties due to shallow landslides are recorded globally, and in literature a variety of models to study landslides have been implemented hitherto. Often times, shallo...

The role of water resources in conflict has been the centre of a polarized scientific debate on the connections between environmental and social sustainability. We investigate whether and how water availability, also in relation to water demand, increases the likelihood of violent conflict, and we analyse how hydrological factors influence social c...

Interbasin water diversion projects and virtual water transfers embedded in exchanged goods and services are two effective solutions to water deficits. However, the associated real responses in water quantity and quality scarcities and the economic efficiencies remain unclear. Here, we tracked the blue water scarcities, water pollution levels, and...

Rising interest in large-scale afforestation and reforestation as a strategy for climate change mitigation has recently motivated research efforts aiming at the identification of areas suitable for the plantation of trees. An often-overlooked aspect of agroforestry projects for carbon sequestration is their impact on water resources. It is often un...

Growing population and rising incomes are leading to an ever-increasing demand for animal-based foods. Pigmeat is currently the most consumed meat globally, even exceeding the consumption of poultry meat. Despite the disproportionate environmental burden of animal production – mostly attributable to associated feed demand, up-to-date country-scale...

Global changes in response to human encroachment into natural habitats and carbon emissions are driving the biodiversity extinction crisis and increasing disease emergence risk. Host distributions are one critical component to identify areas at risk of viral spillover, and bats act as reservoirs of diverse viruses. We developed a reproducible ecolo...

Recent years have seen continued investments in new irrigation dams across Africa, which have led to the emergence of new irrigated areas in their vicinity (or ‘command areas’). The ability to irrigate land that was previously only rainfed allows for an increase in crop production and is therefore associated with an increase in the value generated...

In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet through the Planetary Health Diet Index (PHDI) in a nationwide population-based study carried out in Brazil. We used data from the National Dietary Survey conducted through the Household Budget Survey in 2017–2018, with 46,164 Brazilians aged over 10 years old. Food con...

The ongoing agrarian transition from smallholder farming to large-scale commercial agriculture promoted by transnational large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) often aims to increase crop yields through the expansion of irrigation. LSLAs are playing an increasingly prominent role in this transition. Yet it remains unknown whether foreign LSLAs by ag...

Global changes in response to human encroachment into natural habitats and carbon emissions are driving the biodiversity extinction crisis and increasing disease emergence risk. Host distributions are one critical component to identify areas at risk of spillover, and bats act as reservoirs of diverse viruses. We developed a reproducible ecological...

The mining industry of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) represents the most important sector of the country's economy, and the DRC belongs to the world top five diamond producers. Artisanal small-scale mining (ASM) of alluvial diamonds represents an important source of alternative income for subsistence farmers, but it also leads to sever...

Global analyses have revealed virtual drains and gains of water between trading countries, with Mexico ranking as one of the countries with the fastest increase in unsustainable water consumption in agriculture for export markets, since 2000. It is unclear, however, how Mexico has reshaped its crop production and associated reliance on freshwater r...

Although a wide body of scholarly research recognizes multiple kinds of values for water, water security assessments typically employ just some of them. In the present article, we integrate value scenarios into a planetary water security model to incorporate multiple water-related social values and illustrate trade-offs among them. Specifically, we...

The Labyrinth in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is characterized by large bedrock channels emerging from beneath the margin of Wright Upper Glacier. To study the morphodynamics of large subglacial channels cut into bedrock, we develop herein a numerical model based on the classical theory of subglacial channels and recent results on bedrock...

The poultry industry plays an important role in meat production/supply, with a growth rate of more than 4% p.a. in the last few years. This white meat production requires a large amount of feed that increases competition in the use of natural resources for primary food and other uses. Grains are the primary source of poultry nutrition and oilseeds...

The extent to which humans facilitate zoonotic transmission of infectious diseases is unclear. Human encroachment into wildlife habitats as a consequence of expanding urbanization, cropland area and intensive animal farming is hypothesized to favour the emergence of zoonotic diseases. Here we analyse comprehensive, high-resolution datasets on fores...

A systemic approach was proposed to analyse a complex system such that of food value chains. Typical management methodologies were applied to a citrus derivatives industry and, based on the survey outcomes, a sustainable optimisation plan was formulated integrating the critical domains of the water-food-energy nexus. The overall process was mapped...

One of the main challenges for India is increasing food security and promoting economic development using the domestic finite and already stressed natural resources. In the last decades silk production has been booming in India in response to the 2025 silk self-sufficiency goal set by the Indian Ministry of Textile. It is not clear to which extent...

The ongoing agrarian transition from small-holder farming to large-scale commercial agriculture is reshaping systems of production and human well-being in many regions. A fundamental part of this global transition is manifested in large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) by agribusinesses. Its energy implications, however, remain poorly understood. He...

About 40% of global crop production takes place on irrigated land, which accounts for approximately 20% of the global farmland. The great majority of freshwater consumption by human societies is associated with irrigation, which contributes to a major modification of the global water cycle by enhancing evapotranspiration and reducing surface and gr...

Significance Foreign investors have acquired vast tracts of land globally since the early 2000s, yet the food security implications of this phenomenon are poorly understood. The ability to close crop yield gaps through commercial agriculture must be weighed against local impacts on food access. We combine agricultural, remote sensing, and household...

Climate change is expected to affect crop production worldwide, particularly rain-fed agricultural regions. It is still unclear to what extent the global patterns of rain-fed agriculture will be reshaped by the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration and how changes in water availability will limit the ability to sustainably expan...

Rainforests ensure fundamental water-related ecosystem services that are currently threatened by land-use change, in particular deforestation. Quantitative assessments of water-related ecosystem services have traditionally focused on the benefits linked to direct water availability for humans. Under this perspective, forests have been considered as...

Significance Climate change is expected to reshape the distribution of irrigated lands. Using climatic projections from three global climate models, we investigate global patterns of irrigation water demand and availability in 1.5 °C and 3 °C warmer climates. We find that in up to 35% of currently rain-fed croplands, irrigation could be expanded as...

Recently vast tracts of land have been acquired by foreign and domestic‐foreign partnerships to satisfy an increasing demand for agricultural products, often resulting in the conversion of forested landscapes into agricultural fields. Those conversions often occur in areas characterized by high slope angles with the potential to cause mass wasting...

The recorded number of epidemics from emerging diseases is increasing at alarming rates, posing new threats on human societies. Despite the consensus on the existence of a nexus between emerging diseases and human pressure on the environment, the link to global and regional trends in food demand and agricultural production remains poorly understood...

Estudo que utilizou dados de 34.003 indivíduos participantes do Inquérito Nacional de Alimentação da Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares - INA/POF 2008-2009 e que buscou comparar o consumo da população brasileira com as recomendações da dieta de saúde planetária proposta pelo EAT-Lancet. Como resultados, observamos que o consumo alimentar da populaçã...

Significance Water’s ability to generate value in irrigated agriculture remains poorly quantified at the global scale. The valuation of irrigation water is an important piece of information not only for agribusiness investors interested in the acquisition of land and water entitlements but also for farmers and rural communities that are negotiating...

Accurately assessing green and blue water requirements from croplands is fundamental to promote sustainable water management. In the last decade, global hydrological models have provided important insights into global patterns of water requirements for crop production. As important as these models are, they do not provide monthly crop-specific and...

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) causing coronaviruses are mostly discovered in Asian horseshoe bats. It is still unclear how ongoing land use changes may facilitate SARS-related coronavirus transmission to humans. Here we use a multivariate hotspot analysis of high-resolution land-use data to show th...

Tropical forests are vital for global biodiversity, carbon storage and local livelihoods, yet they are increasingly under threat from human activities. Large-scale land acquisitions have emerged as an important mechanism linking global resource demands to forests in the Global South, yet their influence on tropical deforestation remains unclear. He...

Water scarcity raises major concerns on the sustainable future of humanity and the conservation of important ecosystem functions. To meet the increasing food demand without expanding cultivated areas, agriculture will likely need to introduce irrigation in croplands that are currently rain-fed but where enough water would be available for irrigatio...

Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of localized production shocks throughout the world. In this study, we analyze the global potential impact of a present-day event of equivalent magnitude to the U...

Since the turn of the century, rubber plantations have been expanding their footprint across Southeast Asia in response to an increasing global demand for rubber products. Between 2000 and 2014, the area cultivated with rubber more than doubled. It is not clear how this major change in the agricultural landscape of Southeast Asia, the main area of...