Margaret Chitiga

Margaret Chitiga
University of Pretoria | UP · School of Public Management and Administration

About

72
Publications
12,344
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583
Citations
Citations since 2017
17 Research Items
289 Citations
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20172018201920202021202220230204060
20172018201920202021202220230204060
20172018201920202021202220230204060

Publications

Publications (72)
Article
URL: https://theconversation.com/south-africa-could-achieve-economic-recovery-and-lower-emissions-heres-how-179122 Measures adopted to control the spread of the COVID pandemic resulted in a worldwide reduction in economic activities. This benefited the environment by reducing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. That said, we should not lose sig...
Article
OPEN ACCESS ARTICLE in "The Conversation" HERE: https://theconversation.com/new-research-how-covid-19-has-made-life-harder-for-south-african-women-169705 "There is no doubt that the pandemic has had a devastating impact on South Africa and its economy. During economic crises, women often pay a heavy price and Covid-19 is no exception. As in much o...
Article
State-owned enterprises are companies in which government owns, directly or indirectly, more than 50% of the shares. Worldwide, states own 10% of the largest companies. In South Africa, state-owned enterprises play a significant role in the important sectors of mining, energy, communications, air and rail transport. Some state-owned entities loom...
Article
Full-text available
The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated gender-related structural inequalities and barriers in women’s healthcare access – a phenomenon similarly observed in past economic and health crises. Yet long-term, intersectoral and structural reforms are given low priority. G20 leaders have an opportunity to use COVID-19 recovery initiatives to build more ge...
Article
This paper offers a quantitative assessment of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic-induced lockdown and government fiscal plan, containing ‘green’ elements on the economy and the environment of South Africa. The analysis uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model operationalised using a social accounting matrix coupled with a greenhouse g...
Article
Little is known about the general equilibrium impact COVID-19 induces on different gender groups. This paper addresses the problem of relatively few general equilibrium studies focusing on gender impacts of COVID-19. The analysis uses a gendered Computable General Equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model that analyses a mild and severe s...
Article
This paper constructs and uses a recursive dynamic general equilibrium model for South Africa to examine the economywide consequences of a continued deterioration in performance of state‐owned enterprises and rise in foreign interest rates. A decline in state‐owned enterprisesproductivity has substantial negative ramifications on the rest of the ec...
Article
A computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model is applied to assess the potential short‐term effects on the South African economy of the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic. With a particular focus on distributional outcomes, two simulations are run, a mild and a severe scenario. The findings show significant evidence of decline in...
Preprint
Full-text available
To contribute towards addressing the problem of relatively few general equilibrium studies focusing on gender impacts of disease pandemics, this paper uses a gendered Computable General Equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model to study the short run economic effects of COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. A mild and severe scenario is run...
Article
Economic reforms affect men and women differently. In South Africa, gender and racial disparities still exist in the labour market, with women being highly vulnerable. The South African economy is in a depressed situation, with high levels of debt and public deficit. To improve the financial situation of the country, the government has implemented...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Influential documents such as the synthesis reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 and 2014 and the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change in 2007 reignited a global effort to counter the effects of global warming and climate change. The United Nations has made climate change a focal point in all i...
Article
Social grant schemes have become an important component of many developing countries’ inclusive growth strategies with governments increasingly investing in large-scale cash transfer programs. South Africa’s Child Support Grant (CSG) is one of the largest cash transfer systems in Africa. However, child poverty remains high in the country, leading t...
Article
Full-text available
The decline in the world economy that followed the 2008-2009 global economic crisis had detrimental effects on most economies. Not enough attention has been paid to the process through which crisis-related pressures affected regional economies and sub-national governments. A regional computable general equilibrium model was developed to analyse imp...
Article
This article presents a computable general equilibrium model (CGEM) able to measure the impacts of the affirmative action policy set up in South Africa. In order to decrease inequalities inherited from the former regime, the government encourages firms to employ historically disadvantaged persons. Through this study, we evaluate the impact of this...
Article
This article is a follow-up to one that looked at the impact of the economic crisis on child poverty in South Africa using a macro–micro modeling technique. The current article's contribution is to position the results of the first article in the context of the actual effects of the crisis. Hence, this article offers a comparative analysis between...
Article
Full-text available
This paper uses a relatively new approach to quantify the effects of trade liberalisation on poverty. It relies on the combination of a standard, social accounting, matrix-based, computable general equilibrium model and household micro-data. These two tools are used sequentially in order to simulate the impact of trade policy reform. This framework...
Article
Full-text available
South Africa has committed to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030 in its National Development Plan. To realise this, it will be critical to make strides in attaining the Millennium Development Goals. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to show the complexities of trade-offs between attaining these goals and their fina...
Article
Full-text available
Any development intervention in South Africa’s rural areas must be applauded, especially when the focus is on assisting women and children and their immediate families. The interview with Gloria Serobe raises some interesting general points about development approaches in rural South Africa, particularly around food security and agricultural develo...
Chapter
This chapter reviews evidence from green growth trajectory literature in order to assess the extent to which developing countries such as South Africa can move to a greener path through contributing to global reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, without compromising economic growth, job creation and poverty reduction. This is important bec...
Article
This paper investigates the impact of fiscal decentralisation on economic growth at the provincial level in South Africa using annual data from 1996 to 2012. We control for heterogeneity, endogeneity and spatial effects using the least square dummy variable (LSDV) estimator with Driscoll and Kraay (1981) corrected standard errors and two-step syste...
Article
South Africa is trapped in a cycle of modest growth, unacceptable poverty levels and record unemployment. This has led to renewed interest on the relationship between macro (growth) and micro (poverty and distribution) issues. This paper uses a macro–micro tool that couples a computable general equilibrium model with microsimulation models to exami...
Article
In a first for South Africa, we draw on literature on infrastructure productivity to model dynamic economywide employment impacts of infrastructure investment funded with different fiscal tools. According to the South African investment plan, the policy will affect the stock of infrastructure as well as the stock of capital of some private and publ...
Article
We examine the economy-wide impact of the child support grant (CSG) on the South African economy using a bottom-up/top-down approach. This allows us to estimate the potential effects on households’ welfare and on the economy following a change in the CSG. Three simulations are presented, in simulation 1 the value of the CSG is increased by 20%; in...
Article
This paper uses an intertemporal computable general equilibrium model to investigate the consequences of an expansive fiscal policy designed to accelerate economic growth in South Africa. A key contribution is made to existing literature on the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy in African economies. To the best of our knowledge, no published...
Article
An energy-focused macro-micro approach is used to assess the poverty implications of government policy response to increases in international oil prices in South Africa. The first scenario assumes that increases in international oil prices are passed on to end users with no changes in government policy instruments. In this scenario, poverty indicat...
Article
Full-text available
A multiregion applied general equilibrium model is used to examine the financial interactions among spheres of government in the context of fiscal consolidation. The framework combines nine regional submodels interacting through the trading of goods and services and the mobility of labor and capital. The model integrates intergovernmental fiscal tr...
Article
Full-text available
An energy-focused integrated CGE microsimulation approach is used to assess the implica-tions of differential government policy responses in South Africa, to increases in international oil prices. The first scenario assumes that increases in world oil and petroleum products are passed through to end users with no changes in government tax/subsidy i...
Article
This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated with the recent global economic crisis in macroeconomic terms in South Africa, the country’s capacity to withstand or cushion these shocks, and the extent of fragility in terms of poverty levels and child wellbeing. The analysis combines macro-economic and...
Article
Full-text available
A provincial computable general equilibrium model for the Free State province in South Africa is used to quantify the channels by which the recent global economic crisis affects the province. The analysis allows focus on three levels through which provincial economies and their people are impacted by a global economic crisis, namely the macro-econo...
Article
Three levels of analysis are used to track the channels by which South Africa and its people are impacted by an increase of oil prices, namely the macro-economic level, the meso-economic level and the micro-economic/household level. The paper uses an economy and energy integrated approach to quantify these different channels. The approach combines...
Article
Full-text available
This paper assesses the economic effects of a hypothetical fuel levy imposed by South African provinces. The welfare effects of increasing the fuel levy by 10 per cent are negative but very small. Similarly, the marginal excess burdens for efficiency and equity (poverty) are quite low, suggesting much smaller impacts of the intervention on both eco...
Article
This paper reviews applications of computable general equilibrium models to trade liberalisation in South Africa. It focuses on economic structure, data, macroeconomic closure and results of the models. The models project that trade liberalisation has had small positive impacts on growth. Poverty and inequality outcomes are less clear cut and depen...
Article
This paper presents a computable general equilibrium model (CGEM) able to measure the impacts of the affirmative action policy set up in South Africa. In order to decrease inequalities inherited from the former regime, the government encourages firms to employ Historically Disadvantaged Persons (HDP). Through this study, we evaluate the impact of t...
Article
Using a top down computable general equilibrium microsimulation model of South Africa, this paper explores the impact on household well being of an increase in agricultural protection. This issue is of broader relevance to developing countries that may be contemplating the use of World Trade Organisation permissible trade barriers so as to achieve...
Article
Elasticities of demand and supply for South African manufactured exports are estimated using a vector error correction model in order to address simultaneity and non-stationarity issues. Demand is highly price-elastic, with elasticities ranging from -3 to -6. The price elasticity of supply is generally about 1, but some estimates are as low as 0.35...
Article
Full-text available
This paper empirically investigates the impact of agricultural trade reform in South Africa. Using UNCTAD’s Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (ATPSM), the study investigates two specific scenarios that capture the magnitude of (i) the economic impact of global agricultural trade reform in South Africa and (ii) the economic impact if the...
Article
Full-text available
The paper uses a microsimulation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to study the impact on poverty of a complete removal of tariffs in Zimbabwe. The model incorporates 14,006 households derived from the 1995 Poverty Assessment Study Survey. This paper's novelty is that it is one among a small group of papers that incorporates individual hou...
Article
This case study examines the impacts on poverty and equality of the extended trade liberalisation strategy that South Africa has been following since 1994. The paper features an integrated CGE microsimulation model with explicit incorporation of non-market activities and gender decomposition. This makes it possible to assess the effects of trade li...
Article
Full-text available
The debate about the consequences of economic growth on poverty and welfare was recently rekindled in South Africa by announcements that the government would be targeting a sustainable growth rate of 6 percent per annum under the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (ASGISA). This paper uses a sequential dynamic computable gene...
Article
South Africa has undergone significant trade liberalization since the end of apartheid. Average protection has fallen while openness has increased. However, economic growth has been insufficient to make inroads into the high unemployment levels. Poverty levels have also risen. The country's experience presents an interesting challenge for many econ...
Article
Full-text available
South Africa has undergone significant trade liberalization since the end of apartheid. Average protection has fallen while openness has increased. However, economic growth has been insufficient to make inroads into the high unemployment levels. Poverty levels have also risen. The country’s experience presents an interesting challenge for many econ...
Article
Full-text available
South Africa, as an upper middle-income, resource-intensive developing country with an open economy, has to find innovative ways to combat poverty, promote economic growth and reduce the intensity of resource use, simultaneously. One option is to explore the plausibility of achieving a double dividend by levying a tax on water and energy and recycl...
Article
Africa's global share of foreign direct investment (FDI) has lagged behind other regions in the world, despite the sharp increase in FDI inflows to the region in 2001. Factors contributing to this circumstance include perception of high corruption, weak governance, poor infrastructure, among others. The motivation of this paper is to investigate th...
Article
Full-text available
Zimbabwe has recently gone through a widely criticised land reform process. The country has suffered immensely as a result of this badly orchestrated reform process. Yet land reform can potentially increase average incomes, improve income distribution and as a consequence reduce poverty. This paper presents a counterfactual picture of what could ha...
Article
There is an important debate going on in South Africa on whether to apply safeguard trade barriers to protect textiles. This presents an interesting case of how a country might use safeguard trade barriers in order to better achieve a domestic policy objective. Much of the current discourse on textiles protection focuses on static effects of protec...
Article
A CGE microsimulation model is used to study the poverty impacts of trade liberalization in Zimbabwe. A sample of 14006 households from a 1995 household survey is individually modeled in a CGE framework. The experiment performed is a 50 percent reduction in all import tariffs. The sectors with the highest initial tariffs are the non-export agricult...
Article
A CGE model of South Africa is used to find the potential for a 'double or triple dividend', if the revenues raised from an energy related environmental tax are recycled into households and industry through lowering existing taxes. Four environmental taxes and three revenue-recycling schemes are compared. The environmental taxes are (i) a tax on gr...
Article
The paper uses a micro-simulation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to study the impact on poverty of trade liberalisation in Zimbabwe. The model incorporates 14006 households derived from the 1995 Poverty Assessment Study Survey (PASS). The novelty of this paper is that it is one among a small group of papers that incorporates individual...
Article
Government controls on the price of food through stock adjustment and through imports of food are explicitly modelled in a computable general equilibrium for Zimbabwe. The results of policy simulations show that allowing the price of food to increase during a drought period increases incomes of food producers only and allowing the price to fall hur...
Article
Full-text available
Abstract Africa’s global share of foreign direct investment (FDI) has lagged behind other regions inthe world, despite the sharp increase in FDI inflows to the region in 2001. Factors contributing to this circumstance include perception of high corruption, weak governance, poor infrastructure, among others. The motivation of this paper is to invest...
Chapter
The liberalization of foreign trade, removal of import licensing, quantitative restrictions on imports, foreign exchange allocation and currency controls were major components of the economic structural adjustment programs implemented in Zimbabwe in the 1990s. An important issue for policy makers in Zimbabwe was how these adjustment reforms would a...
Article
A computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate the economy-wide and income distribution effects of transfer policies to the poor. The model consists of seven income distribution groups - communal farmers, resettlement farmers, unskilled workers, agricultural wage workers, skilled workers, industrial capitalists and agricultural profit e...
Article
Until recently, Zimbabwe was in a relatively decent shape as far as public debt was concerned - it was considered a moderately indebted country and its credit rating was better than most comparable developing countries. In reality though, it was really an economy where external creditors were willing to support an otherwise unsustainable external b...

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