Marcus Matthias Keupp

ETH Zurich | ETH Zürich · Military Academy

This book analyzes cyberdefense from a novel and interdisciplinary perspective, offering solutions for problems that have long impeded a more efficient defense. It explains why cyberdefense organized and performed by humans is too slow, too cumbersome, and too ineffective. Combining the analytical capabilities of experts in operations research an...

The need for dependable and real-time insights on technological paradigm shifts requires objective information. We develop a lean recommender system which predicts emerging technology by a sequential blend of machine learning and network analytics. We illustrate the capabilities of this system with patent data and discuss how it can help organizati...

We consider a setting where attackers attempt to damage a cybersphere and defenders attempt to neutralize this damage. We map and simulate their dynamics and interactions by an agent-based model. Using a game-theoretic approach, we model how defenders can neutralize attacks by cooperating with each other, and how they can overcome uncooperative beh...

For corporate security officers (CSOs), investment decisions about IT security are more challenging than microeconomic models would suggest. Large budgets are not necessarily associated with effective corporate protection, whereas cybersecurity breaches negatively affect individual career prospects irrespective of prior investments. In this chapter...

When attackers attempt to exfiltrate information from a computer network, they are faced with a selection problem: They must identify valuable units of information among many irrelevant ones. We model such attacks as repeated urn draws under different distributional patterns, depending on how attackers pursue their operation. Further, we use prospe...

Contemporary cyberdefense is too slow, it lacks foresight, and it is often ineffective. This introductory chapter explains these problems and proposes how the contributions in this volume can help to overcome them.

Wie lassen sich Cyberangriffe schneller erkennen und wirkungsvoll bekämpfen? Und wie können die Angreifer rascher verstanden werden, um die Verteidiger besser ausbilden zu können? Antworten liefert eine verstärkte lnterdisziplinarität bei der Cyberabwehr.

Strategic decisions rely heavily on non-scientific instrumentation to forecast emerging technologies and leading companies. Instead, we build a fast quantitative system with a small computational footprint to discover the most important technologies and companies in a given field, using generalisable methods applicable to any industry. With the hel...

Die Umsetzung der Energiestrategie 2050 steht in den Sternen, aber die Stromlücke ist Realität. Befürchtungen eines landesweiten Blackouts gehören zwar ins Reich der Kolportage, aber eine stabile und sichere Stromversorgung ist ohne Kooperation mit Europa nicht zu realisieren.

Versorgungssicherheit und der Wohlstand der Schweiz sind untrennbar mit der Teilnahme am Welthandel verbunden, und dieser ruht auf dem Fundament des Völkerrechts. Wer angesichts solcher Realitäten wieder die nationale Autarkie beschwört, trägt nichts zum Landeswohl bei, sondern gefährdet es vielmehr.

Der Lockdown hat global gezeigt, was der Brexit bereits andeutete: Eine Rückkehr ins zwanzigste Jahrhundert ist nicht undenkbar. Die Welt hat erfahren, was es bedeutet, wenn international arbeitsteilige Wertschöpfungsketten zerbrechen, Grenzübergänge plötzlich geschlossen werden, die Exekutive durchregiert. Vor diesem Hintergrund beschreibt das Bu...

Man will das schöne Wetter nutzen, schwingt sich aufs Fahrrad, fährt an uralten Grenzsteinen vorbei nach Deutschland, kauft dort italienischen Wein und spanischen Schinken, bezahlt in fremder Währung bei einer Grenzgängerin, die in Frankreich wohnt. Man radelt zurück in die Schweiz, setzt sich an die Hafenmole, unterhält sich mit einem Schiffer aus...

Man sitzt am Rhein und liest: Das SüßwasserSüßwasser werde knapp, bald schon habe man Kriege ums Wasser, Unruhen und Flüchtlingswellen zu erwarten. Auf diesen Schreck möchte man gleich etwas Rheinwasser auf Vorrat trinken. Aber was in Basel möglich ist, verursacht Bauchschmerzen in Rotterdam.

Der Morgen ist noch frisch und der Waldboden lehmig, als Gyula Horn und Alois Mock bei Sopron aus ihren Limousinen steigen und auf den übermannshohen Stacheldrahtzaun zugehen, der die grüne Grenze zwischen Österreich und Ungarn hermetisch abriegelt. Am 27. Juni 1989 wollen sie umsetzen, was ihre Diplomaten ausgehandelt haben, ein kleines Loch in de...

This textbook examines the economic problems of military organizations from an institutional perspective. It discusses the efficiency and effectiveness of military performance, using a capability-based conceptualization. Constitutional, historical and economic considerations complement the analysis. Neither the analysis nor the conclusions depend o...

Before an actual conflict begins, it is unknown whether and to what extent the military capabilities generated in peacetime can actually provide effective military performance. Only real conflicts allow the armed forces to test the effectiveness of any military capabilities they have generated in the past. Just like a private firm does not know act...

Effectiveness is a necessary but not sufficient condition by which analysts must judge military capabilities. Their assessment must also consider the efficiency with which combatants generate them, i.e., the relationship between capabilities created and the resources consumed during this creation. Efficiency is therefore a measure of the extent to...

Contemporary military organizations are anything but private companies. Both military and civilian bureaucracies who do not function according to free-market principles administer them. Quite the contrary: As these bureaucracies control all economic activity in the armed forces, a planned economy system is established. Any economic analysis that ig...

In the age of nation states, the creation of any armed force is a political act. Prior to this age, private initiative spontaneously created armed forces to satisfy a short-term demand for military force and disbanded them once they had accomplished their mission. Today, those who have political power in the state create a (or maintain an existing)...

In principle, any economic system can be reformed in two ways: by changing the existing inventory of institutions or by replacing this inventory with an alternative one (Buchanan and Tullock 1962; Buchanan 1990). A military organization can try to implement reforms within the planned economy system, or it can abandon this system and adopt an altern...

This book analyzes the security of critical infrastructures such as road, rail, water, health, and electricity networks that are vital for a nation’s society and economy, and assesses the resilience of these networks to intentional attacks. The book combines the analytical capabilities of experts in operations research and management, economics, ri...

We analyze the consequences of a mass casualty event incident by an intentional attack on critical infrastructure. Using friction time analysis to model productivity loss among labor force participants, we model the monetary loss to the economy for three different attack scenarios. We explore the extent to which alternative triage methods may reduc...

Human life and economic organization in urban areas must fundamentally rely on essential systems that provide water, health services, electricity, supply, mobility, and communication to the population. Any temporary or permanent disruption of these critical infrastructures has severe negative consequences that range from reduced economic productivi...

In this chapter, we propose a decision support system that allows analysts to assess the reliability of street networks. The system consists of three main components: a graph construction tool that transforms OpenStreetMap data into a directed graph, a traffic estimator that defines the traffic volume between origin-destination pairs, and an optimi...

Today, society strongly relies on a working electrical power distribution system, i.e. a power grid that supplies instantaneously all the required electricity demand. If this supply can no longer be organized, significant negative repercussions for individuals, companies and government follow. In this chapter we apply graph theory to analyze the vu...

We investigate how human beliefs are associated with the absorption of specialist knowledge that is required to produce cyber-security. We ground our theorizing in the knowledge-based view of the firm and transaction-cost economics. We test our hypotheses with a sample of 262 members of an information-sharing and analysis center who share sensitive...

This book analyzes the security of critical infrastructures such as road, rail, water, health, and electricity networks that are vital for a nation’s society and economy, and assesses the resilience of these networks to intentional attacks. The book combines the analytical capabilities of experts in operations research and management, economics, ri...

Security information sharing (SIS) is an activity whereby individuals exchange information that is relevant to analyze or prevent cybersecurity incidents. However, despite technological advances and increased regulatory pressure, individuals still seem reluctant to share security information. Few contributions have addressed this conundrum to date....

Économie militaire Cet ouvrage aborde des problèmes économiques des organisations militaires d’un point de vue institutionnel. Il examine l’efficience et l’efficacité de la performance militaire dans le sens d’un commandement et d’un contrôle des forces armées axés sur les capacités. Des considérations constitutionnelles, historiques et économiques...

Dieses Buch erörtert die ökonomischen Probleme militärischer Organisationen aus institutioneller Perspektive. Es diskutiert Effizienz und Effektivität militärischer Leistung im Sinne einer fähigkeitsorientierten Streitkräfteführung. Staatsrechtliche, historische und betriebswirtschaftliche Betrachtungen ergänzen die Analyse. Der Inhalt • Die ökon...

Ob und inwiefern die erzeugten militärischen Fähigkeiten tatsächlich die doktrinären Ziele durchsetzen können, ist in Friedenszeiten unbekannt. Erst der tatsächliche Konflikt schafft eine Umgebung, in der die Effektivität militärischer Fähigkeiten unter Beweis gestellt werden muss. Wendet man die evolutionäre Theorie (Hannan und Freeman 1984; Burge...

Die heutigen militärischen Organisationen sind keine privaten Unternehmungen, sondern Teil der modernen Nationalstaaten und daher in deren bürokratische Verwaltung integriert. In ökonomischer Hinsicht werden sie daher nach planwirtschaftlichen Grundsätzen geführt. Ignoriert die ökonomische Analyse dieses fundamentale Problem, so erzeugt sie nicht n...

Im Zeitalter der Nationalstaaten ist die Gründung eines Militärs ein politischer Akt. Anders als eine Unternehmung wird es nicht gegründet, um eine sich bietende Gelegenheit zur Gewinnerzielung auszunutzen, sondern weil die politischen Entscheidungsträger des Staates die Errichtung einer militärischen Organisation an sich wollen. Unabhängig von der...

Grundsätzlich kann jedes ökonomische System auf zwei Arten reformiert werden: Durch Veränderungen innerhalb des Institutionenbestandes oder durch dessen Ablösung (Buchanan und Tullock 1962; Buchanan 1990). Eine militärische Organisation kann daher versuchen, Reformen innerhalb des planwirtschaftlichen Systems umzusetzen, oder dieses System zugunste...

Effektivität ist eine notwendige, nicht aber eine hinreichende Bedingung für die Beurteilung militärischer Leistung. Denn die ökonomische Analyse der Leistungserstellung umfasst nicht nur die Frage der Effektivität, d.h. ob und inwiefern die Leistungsziele erreicht wurden. Es kommt ebenso auf die Effizienz der Leistung an, d.h. auf das Verhältnis v...

Research Summary Recent research suggests that effectuation principles such as flexibility, precommitments, and affordable loss may differ substantially from one another. Responding to the call to clarify the effectuation concept, our study introduces the distinction between promotion‐ and prevention‐focused effectuation principles. It argues that...

Empirical studies have analyzed the incentive mechanisms for sharing security information between human agents, a key activity for critical infrastructure protection. However, recent research shows that most Information Sharing and Analysis Centers do not perform optimally, even when properly regulated. Using a meso-level of analysis, we close an i...

Empirical studies have analyzed the incentive mechanisms that support security information sharing between human agents, a key activity for critical infrastructure protection. However, recent research shows that most Information Sharing and Analysis Centers – the most common institution organizing security information sharing – do not perform at Pa...

In this paper, we investigate the role of incentives for Security Information Sharing (SIS) between human agents working in institutions. We present an incentive-based SIS system model that is empirically tested with an exclusive dataset. The data was collected with an online questionnaire addressed to all participants of a deployed Information Sha...

We propose an extension of the Gordon-Loeb model by considering multi-periods and relaxing the assumption of a continuous security breach probability function. Such adaptations allow capturing dynamic aspects of information security investment such as the advent of a disruptive technology and its consequences. In this paper, the case of big data an...

Various measures have been proposed to mitigate the underinvestment problem in cybersecurity. Investment models have theoretically demonstrated the potential application of security information sharing (SIS) to Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP). However, the free rider problem remains a major pitfall, preventing the full potential benefits o...

Wer die Schweiz als rohstoffarmes Land bezeichnet, liegt strenggenommen falsch. Angeblich, so das gängige Narrativ, verfüge die Schweiz weder über Ölvorkommen noch Bodenschätze, sodass sie abhängig von ausländischen Importen sowie anfällig für Störungen der Transportwege sei. Diese Ansicht trifft allerdings nur auf Primärrohstoffe zu, d.h. solche,...

The Swiss Armed Forces are suffering from a structural deficit of militia officers despite good pay and a general supportive attitude in the population. Whereas, prior studies have focused on motivation to explain understaffing in armed forces, we offer an alternative approach based on opportunity cost. We model decision alternatives both within an...

La cybersécurité ne se limite pas aux sciences informatiques. Une approche holistique et multidisciplinaire est nécessaire pour renforcer notre souveraineté numérique. Deux recherches scientifiques adoptant une approche économique de la cybersécurité sont présentées. La première se concentre sur les incitations au partage de l’information sur les c...

The topic, "Northern Sea Route" has become a highly relevant point on the strategic radar screen of many business and military leaders, since global climate change now opens up a hitherto impassable sea route and positions it as a strategic alternative to the Suez route. Add to this the discovery of many easily extractable commodities and metals in...

To date, most maritime traffic on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) carried bulk goods and commodities (Mietzner, 2015 – this book), and the Russian extractive industry is a major producer of bulk traffic. Hence, future commodity exports (mineral ores, oil, and gas) from the Russian Arctic may increase traffic and transport volume on the NSR. In this ch...

Not too long ago, Sven Hedin’s euphoria about the return of the Vega, Adolf Erik Nordenskiöld’s vessel by this seafarer that had just completed the first motorized passage through the Northern Sea Route (NSR), was replicated in our time. Since the beginning of the 20th century, principal commercial maritime routes had changed very little (Verny and...

Both Russia’s Arktika submarine expedition of 2007, which planted a titanium Russian national flag on the seabed below the North Pole, as well as the prediction of significant hydrocarbon and mineral resources in the Arctic waters and continental shelves (United States Geological Survey, 2008) sparked a flood of alarmist analyses and sensationalist...

Extant literature dealing with operative and economic aspects of container shipping in the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has concentrated on the analysis of a particular vessel type. Table 1 demonstrates that this type corresponds to a small, ice-classed container ship such as the COSCO Yong Sheng, whose voyage from Dalian to Rotterdam in August, 2013,...

Viele neue Industriemetalle sind nicht substituierbar, für technologie- und wertschöpfungsintensive Produktionsverfahren jedoch unverzichtbar. Schweizer Vorkommen existieren nicht, und das globale Angebot wird von nur wenigen Nationen quasi-monopolistisch kontrolliert. Der Artikel schlägt eine modulare Versorgungsstrategie vor, die sowohl den coura...

Small, cheeky and provocative – Marcus Matthias Keupp’s second artist's book calls the art world into question. An autodidact, Keupp stages his artistic independence accordingly: "I don’t give a damn about Beuys." Despite its occasional dadaistic bent, this artist’s book protests against the all-too-classic reception of art. The catalogue features...

We study the effect of formal organizational architecture on the extent to which a focal subsidiary creates competence that is “useful” to other units of a multinational corporation (MNC). Elements of formal organizational architecture represent levers by which parent firm and subsidiary managers can realize their intentions. Building on motivation...

Die jüngste Begeisterung über die Öffnung der Nordostpassage blendet wichtige Faktoren aus. Ein Blick auf bisher unveröffentlichte Fakten enthüllt Herausforderungen, welche die Eignung für die kommerzielle Schifffahrt relativieren.

In der Privatwirtschaft erfordert die heutige wissensintensive Herstellung von Produkten und Dienstleistungen ein systematisches Technologiemanagement. Doch auch im militärischen Kontext wird dieses immer wichtiger. Insbesondere die neueren Entwicklungen in der Rüstungstechnologie sowie die diffuser werdende Bedrohungslage stellen die Armeeplanung...

Although enterprise systems (ES) are ubiquitous, many firms report less than stellar payoffs from these costly investments, with underutilization often attrib-uted to failures in the implementation process. Unfortunately, research has not provided sufficient insights into these failures, in part because it has focused on actual usage, as opposed to...

a b s t r a c t Despite the significant role of radical innovation as a driver of firm growth and performance, the conse-quences of resource constraints for radical innovation outcomes remain unknown. Our paper addresses this gap. We combine arguments from entrepreneurship theory and the theory of recombinative innova-tion to construct an overarchi...

a b s t r a c t Despite the significant role of radical innovation as a driver of firm growth and performance, the conse-quences of resource constraints for radical innovation outcomes remain unknown. Our paper addresses this gap. We combine arguments from entrepreneurship theory and the theory of recombinative innova-tion to construct an overarchi...

At the centre of this aesthetic, independent of subjective thought or individual systems of reference, Marcus Matthias Keupp places the idea of molecular recombination: all life in nature, from monads to mammals, can be traced to the recombination of simple modules. In the simplest case these modules are atoms which come together to form molecules;...

Foreign firms patent in emerging economies with weak appropriability regimes at an increasing rate. This phenomenon constitutes a paradox since in such a setting foreign firms should have weak incentives to patent. In an attempt to resolve this paradox, we conducted an inductive analysis of 11 foreign firms that patent in such a setting, using the...

Strategic management scholars have long emphasized the importance of innovation for a firm's competitive advantage and performance. However, the current state of know-ledge about the strategic management of innovation is characterized by conflicting theoretical predictions, persisting knowledge gaps and theoretical inconsistencies. Adopting a 'syst...

Foreign firms patent in emerging economies with weak appropriability regimes at an increasing rate. This phenomenon constitutes a paradox since in such a setting foreign firms should have weak incentives to patent. In an attempt to resolve this paradox, we conducted an inductive analysis of 11 foreign firms that patent in such a setting, using the...

Little is known about how small internationalized firms (‘born globals’) protect and appropriate rents from their intellectual property (IP). Moreover, conflicting predictions exist as to how this protection should be implemented. Therefore, in this book chapter we analyse the strategies born global firms use to protect their IP. We believe that su...

Whereas extant literature has explored the question of why foreign R&D is present in China, we still know almost nothing about how these R&D operations are managed. This applies specifically to the management of Chinese R&D staff who conventionally are not known for their respect of foreign firms' intellectual property rights (IPR). However, foreig...

Our study articulates and empirically tests a theory of how the parent firm of a multinational corporation (MNC) can achieve global integration of subsidiaries into the MNC’s intrafirm network by using managerial “tools” to manipulate the MNC’s formal organizational architecture. Taking a subsidiary’s performance as an observable criterion to measu...

Many emerging economies are characterised by weak appropriability systems and absent legal systems to punish imitators. This places foreign firms’ intellectual property rights at risk, because existing appropriation methods, such as patents or secrecy, cannot function effectively. This concern especially applies to China, the empirical context of t...

My dissertation examines why subsidiary initiatives differ with respect to their probability of survival and identifies initiative-related factors which cause this difference. I conduct this examination within the context of the global research and development (R&D) organisation of a multinational company (MNC). My research therefore intends to ans...

In this article, the authors analyze the field of international entrepreneurship (IE), which is in desperate need of further theory development. They study the field of IE since its inception by offering a comprehensive review of 179 articles on IE published in 16 journals over 14 years, covering the academic disciplines of strategic management, in...

All in all, the demographic changes in Europe imply an enormous economic potential. While these changes are still considered a nightmare by much of today's media (as characterised by notions such as 'clash of generations', 'war on pensions', 'Methusalah complot'), the economic power of the 50+ generation makes one thing very clear: in the long run,...

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) account for over 98% of all firms in Switzerland, and export-oriented high tech SMEs are the main driver for Switzerland's economic growth. Therefore, an important and challenging task of the Swiss Federal Institute of Intellectual Property (IPI) is to better understand how SMEs adopt and use intellectual p...

a b s t r a c t Despite the argument that leveraging the expertise of foreign sub-sidiaries to the global firm benefits the whole firm's competitive advantage, in the case of international innovation, such leveraging rarely takes place. We investigate this paradox, applying research on strategic initiatives to the context of international R&D. Deve...

The transnational corporation paradigm is increasingly at odds with empirical findings regarding international innovation strategies. Analysing a longitudinal case study, we show that a firm's inter-national R&D subsidiaries can be a powerful force that can shape strategy even more than headquarters. On the basis of a literature review that identif...

Extant research on open innovation (OI) offers no systematic insight of how and why firms differ regarding the extent to which they conduct OI activities. Whereas past theoretical contributions have focused on explaining the externalisation of R&D activities as a result of firm-external factors, we focus on explaining this externalisation as a resu...

Foreign firms trying to protect their intellectual property rights (IPRs) in emerging economies are suffering real pressures because these economies usually offer little or no enforcement of IPR. Foreign firms therefore have to resort to approaches unlike those they use in developed countries. This paper explores what managers of foreign firms in C...

During the last ten years, 400 out of the Fortune Top 500 have established at least one R&D unit in China. We investigate into this highly relevant phenomenon that seems to contradict existing theory on international R&D. We propose that there is a missing link in theory, developing this link by introducing the concept of multiplicative capacity in...

Schweizer Unternehmen geben inzwi-schen fast 50 Prozent ihrer Aufwendun-gen für Forschung & Entwicklung (F&E) im Ausland aus. Die Internationalisie-rung von F&E warlange den transnatio-nalen Grossunternehmen vorbehalten. Im Fokusd er Technologiepolitik sind Firmen wie Novartis, die jüngstdie For-schungsleitung nach New Jersey verla-gerte, oder ABB,...

Gerüstet für das internationale Parkett ist, wer innovative Produkte mit neuen Geschäftsmodellen vertreibt. Die Stadler Rail Group, Furrer+Frey und weitere Schweizer KMU sind mit ihren Pro-dukten auf der ganzen Welt präsent. Eine Forschungsarbeit der Universität St. Gallen bringt ans Licht, wie Schwei-zer KMU trotz teilweise beschränkter Ressourcen...

The competitive advantage of early and rapidly internationalising SMEs in the biotechnology industry: A knowledge-based view Abstract Our knowledge on 'born globals' (BG) is fragmented and lacks an integrative framework. Starting from a knowledge-based view of the firm, we analyse internationally active biotechnology small and medium enterprises (S...

While IE literature neglects international innovative activities of Born Globals (BGs), literature on international innovation management focuses on large firms only. We investigate into this gap, proposing a framework to understand where and why BGs engage in such activities. We operationalise and test this framework with both quantitative and qua...

This article features a review of Davide Castellani's and Antonello Zanfei's book 'Multinational Firms, Innovation and Productivity'. From a description and analysis of its contents, the article set out how it adds to our understanding of the international innovatory activities of multinational firms, and how it may stimulate future research on int...

Many emerging economies are characterised by a weak appropriability system and the ab-sence of a strong legal system that effectively punishes imitators. In such environments, for-eign firms' intellectual property rights are at risk, becau-se the known methods of appropria-tion, such as patents or secrecy, are unlikely to work. This setting especia...

Für Marcus Keupp von der Uni St. Gallen befinden sich die Babyboomers nicht auf absteigendem Ast.

Firmen müssen ihre Produkte an eine neue Generation junggebliebener, konsumfreudiger Senioren anpassen – nicht altersspezifische Produkte sind gefragt, sondern so genanntes Universal Design.

Die Überalterung der Gesellschaft bietet enormes wirtschaftliches Potenzial. In Japan und in den USA wird dieses Potenzial bereits intensiv genutzt. D ie heutige japanische Bevölke-rungsstruktur ist ein Spiegel der europäischen Zukunft. In Japan lassen sich bereits heute die Auswir-kungen der Alterung erkennen, mit de-nen Europa im Jahr 2020 konfro...

Forschungs- und Entwicklungsprozesse technologieintensiver Unternehmen sind in zunehmendem Masse global ausgerichtet. Während die Internationalisierung anderer Funktionsbereiche, wie Vertrieb, Produktion und Beschaffung bereits eine längere Historie aufweist, ist die Globalisierung von Innovation ein jüngeres Phänomen, wel-ches erst mit neueren Inf...

Le développement démographique est une chance de croissance pour les entreprises en Suisse En Suisse, les projections pour 2020 indiquent que le taux des Seniors -50 ans ou plus -dépassera les 3 millions de personnes et qu'en 2030, un Suisse sur trois sera âgé de plus de 60 ans. Par ailleurs, ces Seniors disposent d'un revenu annuel de plus de 15 m...

The demographic changes of the next decades that will confront most European economies with an ageing society imply serious consequences for Europe's competitive position in the world economy, its economic growth, and the social security systems of its member states. This book chapter features both a macroeconomic look on those industry sectors tha...

While IE literature neglects international innovative activities of born globals (BGs), literature on international innovation management focusses on large firms only. We investigate into this gap, proposing a framework to understand where and why BGs engage in such activities. We operationalise and test this framework with both quantitative and qu...

During the last 10 years, 400 out of the Fortune Top 500 have established at least one R&D unit in China. We investigate into this highly relevant phenomenon that seems to contradict existing theory on international R&D. We propose that there is a missing link in theory, developing this link by theory building that draws on Cohen and Levinthal's ab...